vs
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Thu 10 Sept · 18:45Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
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PSV EindhovenHomeShakhtar DonetskAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- PSV Eindhoven to win. We make it PSV 66%, draw 20%, Shakhtar 14% — effectively the market's own number.
- The one stat
- PSV have gone over 2.5 goals in all five competitive matches and in all of their last ten.
- The risk
- PSV have not kept a clean sheet in nine home matches, and Shakhtar have scored on each of their last 14 competitive away trips.
- The calls
- Safer: over 2.5 goals at 1.43. Riskier: PSV Eindhoven ahead at half-time at 1.84. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
This PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction is not a close call on quality. PSV lead by 161 Elo points before home advantage, which the scale prices at another 60 to 80. Peter Bosz, in charge since 2023 and signed to 2028 last February, has his side scoring at a rate that borders on absurd: 18 goals in five competitive matches, 3.60 per game, from 2.91 expected goals. They won 6-1 at Utrecht and 3-1 at Ajax.
Neither club is in crisis. Shakhtar have lost once in five — 0-2 at home to Polissya on 29 August — and answered it by winning at Karpaty. Arda Turan, appointed on 27 May 2025, has them second in Ukraine with four wins from five and only four goals conceded. The bigger story is what left: Heorhiy Sudakov's move to Benfica took the creative centre out of the side, and Kaua Elias carries the goals now with three.
The week's news is all in the full-back positions. Mauro Junior is suspended, so Sergino Dest switches to the right and Filip Kostic is expected to make his full debut on the left. Jerdy Schouten, Dennis Man, Alassane Plea, Sam Ouaissa and Kiliann Sildillia are out injured; PSV have scored 18 goals without them. Shakhtar are without Marlon Santos and Kiril Fesyun, with Pedrinho doubtful.
The markets
Total goals
Over 2.5
PSV have gone over 2.5 in all five competitive matches this season and in all of their last ten; we make it around 70% against the market's 66%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Match result
PSV Eindhoven
The verdict pushed to the interval: PSV have led at half-time in four of five, scoring 1.38 first-half goals a game against a Shakhtar side that manages 0.72 and was level at the break three times in five.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIs
Result & goals
Match result
PSV EindhovenPrice 1.42
4/5We make PSV 66% against the market's 67%: 161 Elo points before home advantage, 18 goals in five, and a Shakhtar side that lost its main creator in the summer.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsProbable XIs
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.60
3/5Both teams have scored in all five of PSV's matches, PSV have no clean sheet in nine at home, and Shakhtar have scored on each of their last 14 competitive away trips; we make it about 64% against 58%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Total goals
Over 3.5Price 2.11
3/5Four of PSV's five competitive matches have produced four goals or more, and their one previous meeting with Shakhtar finished 3-2; we make it about 52% against the market's 45%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5Price 1.71
3/5Meler averages 4.91 yellows per game over 267 matches against this competition's 3.94, and PSV's five competitive matches have averaged 4.0 cards in total.
EvidenceReferee
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 18:45 Eindhoven time
- Thursday
- Referee
- Halil Umut Meler
- 4.91 yellows per game across his career
- Weather
- 20 °C, cloudy
- light wind, 10% chance of rain
- Rest
- 4 days vs 5
- neither side played midweek
- Stage
- League phase, matchday 1
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals line matters more than the result line, and what a strict Turkish referee does to a counter-attacking side.
01Goals
PSV's five competitive matches have produced 2-2, 2-1, 5-1, 6-1 and 3-1. Eighteen scored, six conceded, over 2.5 goals in every one, both teams scoring in every one, and not a single clean sheet. Their expected goals read 2.91 for and 0.98 against, so the attack is real and the defence is leakier than the raw numbers suggest — they have shipped six from under one expected goal a game.
Shakhtar are the mirror image: 10 scored and four conceded in five, two clean sheets, over 2.5 goals in only two. Away from home they have been tighter still — three wins, five scored, one conceded — and they have scored on each of their last 14 competitive away trips. That is the tension in this match. Shakhtar's habit is a low-scoring away night; PSV's habit is a high-scoring one, and PSV set the tempo.
The one meeting on record, PSV 3-2 in November 2024, went the PSV way: five goals, both teams scoring, PSV taking 35 shots and 12 corners after trailing 0-2 at the break. Over 2.5 is where we are most comfortable; both teams to score is the lean with the most margin against its price.
PSV have gone over 2.5 goals in all five competitive matches and kept no clean sheets; Shakhtar have kept two in five.
Sample: this season's competitive matches: 5 each, all competitions
| Metric | PSV EindhovenHome | Shakhtar DonetskAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 3.63.5 at home | 2.01.67 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.21.5 at home | 0.80.33 away |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
PSV have cleared 2.2 expected goals in all five Eredivisie matches and conceded more than 1.1 only once.
Sample: PSV: 5 Eredivisie matches this season. Shakhtar: no xG published
PSV EindhovenHome
avg xG 2.91 · avg xGA 0.98
2–2D
Fortuna Sittard (H)
1–2W
Excelsior (A)
5–1W
Groningen (H)
1–6W
Utrecht (A)
1–3W
Ajax (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
One competitive meeting: PSV came from 0-2 down at half-time to win 3-2 in Eindhoven, with 35 shots and 12 corners.
1
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
0
Shakhtar Donetsk
27 Nov 2024·UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven3–2Shakhtar Donetsk
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total goals
Over 2.5Safer
Price 1.434/5Match result
PSV Eindhoven1st halfRiskier
Price 1.843/5Match result
PSV Eindhoven
Price 1.424/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.603/5Total goals
Over 3.5
Price 2.113/5
02Cards
Halil Umut Meler has the whistle, and he is strict: 4.91 yellow cards per game across 267 career matches, against the 3.94 this competition has averaged this season. He gives penalties too, roughly one every other match.
PSV's five competitive matches have averaged 4.0 cards in total, over 3.5 in two of five, and the Ajax win alone produced six. Shakhtar have no per-match card record published this season, so the read leans on their weighted season average of 2.08 yellows per game — a side that defends deep and breaks will foul in transition. Over 3.5 total cards is the line; over 4.5 asks too much of a Shakhtar side that has been disciplined.
Meler averages 4.91 yellows per game across 267 matches, a full card above this competition's 3.94.
Sample: career record to September 2026, 267 matches, all competitions
Halil Umut Meler
267 matches this season
league average
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
Price 1.713/5
03The numbers that matter
- 161
- Elo points between the two sides
- Before home advantage, which is worth another 60 to 80. This is the widest quality gap on matchday one.
- 18
- PSV goals in five competitive matches
- From 2.91 expected goals a game. The finishing is hot, but the chance creation underneath it is real.
- 0
- PSV clean sheets in five this season
- And none in nine at home across all competitions — which is why the goals lines, not the result line, carry the value.
- 14
- straight away games Shakhtar have scored in
- They travel with a goal in them even when they lose the match, which is what keeps both teams to score alive.
Shakhtar's five league matches carry no published shot, corner or card detail this season, so their side of the discipline read comes from weighted season averages rather than counted matches.
Part two
Who plays, and how
A reshuffled PSV defence against a Shakhtar side rebuilt around Kaua Elias.
04Team news
Mauro Junior's suspension forces both PSV full-back slots to change; PSV have still scored 18 goals without their five injured players.
PSV EindhovenHome
Mauro JúniorLB
suspended
Goals
OutJerdy SchoutenDM
knee injury
ResultGoals
OutDennis ManRW
injury
Goals
OutAlassane PléaST
knock
Goals
OutSam OuaissaMF
hamstring
Result
OutKiliann SildilliaRB
fitness
Goals
Out
Shakhtar DonetskAway
Marlon SantosCB
muscle injury
Goals
OutPedrinhoAM
hamstring
Goals
DoubtfulKiril FesyunMF
illness, long-term
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and preview reporting, 8-9 September 2026.
05Expected XI
Kostic debuts at left-back with Dest switching right; Shakhtar keep a 4-3-3 with Elias alone through the middle.
PSV EindhovenHome
Peter Bosz
Shakhtar DonetskAway
Arda Turan
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Predicted XIs from match previews published on 9 September; sources differ on whether Wanner or Fernandez starts.
06Shape and plan
Two new full-backs against a counter-attacking side
Kostic on his full debut and Dest moved to the right is exactly the combination Shakhtar want to run at. Both push high in Bosz's system, and Shakhtar's five league matches have been built on breaking into space — five goals in three away trips from very little possession. PSV's 1.20 goals conceded per game is the number under pressure here.
Pepi against a back four without Marlon
Marlon Santos is out, so Bondar partners Matvienko. Pepi has scored in three of his last four league matches and PSV create 2.91 expected goals a game; the first twenty minutes will tell whether Shakhtar can hold the line high enough to stay compact.
Shakhtar without Sudakov
The creative burden falls on Marlon Gomes and Alisson Santana, with Elias the only genuine goal threat. That is why the away side's ceiling here is a 1-0 or a 2-1 on the break rather than a shootout they can win.
The first half is PSV's
PSV have led at half-time in four of five competitive matches this season and score 1.38 first-half goals per game on weighted season averages. Shakhtar have been level at the break in three of five and score 0.72 before the interval. That gap is the riskier call.
07Three duels
Ricardo Pepi
PSV Eindhoven · ST
The finisher on the end of PSV's 2.91 expected goals a game, and the reason the over lines are short.
3 goals in his last 4 league matches
Ruben van Bommel
PSV Eindhoven · RW
Runs at Pedro Henrique all night; PSV's width is where the 18 goals came from.
5 direct goal contributions in his last 4
Kauã Elias
Shakhtar Donetsk · ST
Shakhtar's only settled goal threat since Sudakov left, and the man who has to punish a reshuffled back line.
3 goals, the team's leading scorer
Mykola Matvienko
Shakhtar Donetsk · CB
Organises a back four missing Marlon Santos against a side averaging 3.60 goals a game.
4 conceded in 5 competitive matches
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
08How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 66%chanceMost likely
PSV do what PSV do
PSV go ahead inside the first half, as they have in four of five this season, and the game opens up. Shakhtar get one on the break, because they have scored on each of their last 14 competitive away trips, but the shot count buries them. 3-1, 2-1 or 4-1.
- 20%chance
Shakhtar hold the line
Turan's side stay compact for an hour, Elias gets in behind Kostic once, and PSV's finishing cools off after five matches above the line. Meler's card rate keeps the game stopping and starting. 1-1 or 2-2.
- 14%chance
The counter lands twice
PSV's two changed full-back slots cost them, Shakhtar break with the pace they showed in three away wins, and Riznyk has the night of his season. PSV have not kept a clean sheet in nine at home, but this is the version where they do not need one. 1-2 or 0-1.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
PSV have scored eighteen goals in five matches and kept none out. Shakhtar have scored on fourteen consecutive away trips. Somebody's habit has to break, and it is rarely the home side's.
09The verdict
PSV win it, and the goals arrive at both ends
We make it PSV 66%, draw 20%, Shakhtar 14% — the market's number, and we see no reason to move off it. The gap is structural: 161 Elo points before home advantage, an 81% overall rating against 57%, and a Dutch champion against a Ukrainian one whose creative centre was sold to Benfica in the summer. Neither side is in crisis and neither coach is under pressure, so the case rests on level and current form: 18 goals in five for PSV at 2.91 expected goals a game, four wins in five for Shakhtar built on 0.80 conceded. The value is not in the result at 1.42; it is in the goals. PSV have not kept a clean sheet in nine home matches and Shakhtar have scored on 14 straight away trips.
What would change our mind
- If Kostic is not fit for a full debut and Bosz picks a natural left-back, shade the both-teams-to-score lean down.
- If Pedrinho is passed fit and starts, Shakhtar have a second creator and the draw becomes live.
- If PSV are not ahead at the break, the half-time call is gone and only the goals lines survive.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- PSV Eindhoven, heavily. The market gives them a 67% chance against Shakhtar's 14%, and our own read is almost identical at 66-20-14. PSV lead by 161 Elo points before home advantage is counted, and they have won four of five competitive matches this season, scoring 18.
- What is the predicted score for PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- We predict PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk. PSV have averaged 3.60 goals per game across five competitive matches but have not kept a clean sheet in any of them, and Shakhtar have scored in each of their last 14 competitive away matches.
- Who is out for PSV against Shakhtar Donetsk?
- Mauro Junior is suspended, and Jerdy Schouten, Alassane Plea, Sam Ouaissa, Kiliann Sildillia and Dennis Man are all injured. Sam Lammers is a fitness doubt. Filip Kostic is expected to make his full debut at left-back with Sergino Dest switching to the right.
- What is the head-to-head record between PSV and Shakhtar?
- One competitive meeting: PSV won 3-2 at the Philips Stadion in the Champions League on 27 November 2024, after trailing 0-2 at half-time. PSV had 35 shots and 12 corners in that match. Both teams scored, as they have in four of PSV's five matches this season.
- Who is the referee for PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- Halil Umut Meler of Turkey. Across 267 career matches he averages 4.91 yellow cards and around 0.51 penalties per game, above the 3.94 yellow cards per match this competition has averaged this season.
Written 9 Sept 2026, 18:50 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 18:50 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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