Estudiantes L.P. vs Corinthians

Estudiantes have turned Estadio UNO into a problem. Five wins, two draws and two defeats in their last nine home matches, 15 goals scored and five conceded, and in none of those nine did they go in behind at the interval. Alexander Medina protected that platform on Saturday, rotating heavily at Vélez, losing 1-0 and accepting the cost. His Libertadores team is a different one: four matches, two wins and a draw, five goals scored and two conceded.

Corinthians travel in domestic freefall. Four straight Serie A defeats, the last of them 1-2 at home to Chapecoense on Sunday, have left Fernando Diniz defending his work every week. The continental version of the same squad is harder to beat and far harder to watch: one goal scored and two conceded in their last three Libertadores matches, 0.52 xG a game, and clean sheets in two of the three. They knocked Rosario Central out with a 0-0 away and a 1-0 at home. That is the template they will bring to La Plata.

It is a first leg, with the return at the Neo Química Arena on 16 September, and both coaches know what an away goal is worth over 180 minutes. Diniz gets Hugo Souza, Gabriel Paulista and Raniele back from domestic suspension but still has no Yuri Alberto or André Luiz, both nursing thigh injuries. Medina has lost Tiago Palacios for the tie and waits on his back four. Esteban Ostojich has the whistle, a Uruguayan whose last Estudiantes match was the 0-1 group-stage defeat to Flamengo and a penalty award VAR took back.

Take each side's own Libertadores matches and the picture is stark. Estudiantes have scored 1.25 a game and conceded 0.50 across their four, with clean sheets in two. Corinthians have scored 0.33 a game and conceded 0.67 across their three, with clean sheets in two. Both teams have scored in one of those seven matches combined, and only one of them passed 2.5 goals.

The underlying numbers agree rather than argue. Estudiantes create 1.31 xG a game in this competition and concede 0.50; Corinthians create 0.52 and concede 0.65. Nothing in that suggests a shootout, and the competition's own average of 2.13 goals a match with both teams scoring 43 per cent of the time is already low. This is a fixture where the goals market carries the argument and the result market rides on top of it.

Ostojich has a reputation for reaching for his pocket, but the two squads in front of him have not been especially wild in this competition. Estudiantes' four Libertadores matches have produced 5.0 cards each, three of them their own; Corinthians' three have produced 4.7, three of them their own. Both figures sit under the 5.03 cards a match this competition has averaged across 141 games.

The shape of the tie matters more than the temperament. A first leg that both sides expect to be settled in São Paulo tends to be played at a controlled tempo, and neither side fouls much: 12.03 and 12.20 fouls a game on their weighted season averages, against a competition average of 22.43. The over is the popular side here. The numbers are on the other one.

Corners are the one count that runs hot. Estudiantes' four Libertadores matches have averaged 10.2 in total, Corinthians' three 10.7, both well clear of the 8.95 a match this competition averages. The routes there are opposite. Estudiantes win 6.8 a game and concede 3.5; Corinthians win 2.7 and concede 8.0.

That fits how Corinthians have played away in this competition: deep, compact, conceding territory and clearing it. They gave up 12 corners in the goalless draw at Rosario Central. Estudiantes took 12 in their home match with Universidad Católica. If Corinthians defend the way they have defended all summer, the flag will be busy on one side of the pitch.