vs
Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield
Fri 11 Sept · 17:00Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario
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Newells Old BoysHomeVelez SarsfieldAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- The draw. We make it Newell's 30%, draw 36%, Velez 34% — and neither side is priced short enough to make a win the call.
- The one stat
- Velez have drawn four of their five away matches this season and eight of fifteen competitive games in all.
- The risk
- Newell's have kept four clean sheets in eight home games, so the riskier call still needs Velez to find a goal in Rosario.
- The calls
- Safer: under 2.5 goals at 1.47. Riskier: both teams to score at 2.09. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield prediction has to start with the same awkward fact: this is a fixture between the best team in the zone and a side that has quietly stopped losing, and the market cannot separate them. Velez arrive unbeaten in nine competitive matches and top of Zone A, having beaten Estudiantes 1-0 last Sunday. Newell's arrive unbeaten in four, off an injury-time equaliser from Matias Coccaro in the Rosario derby. Neither club is in crisis. Neither is anywhere near a shootout either.
Frank Dario Kudelka has been back at Newell's since 25 February 2026, long enough that there is no new-coach bounce left to price in; what he has built is a team that defends its own ground and takes what it can. Guillermo Barros Schelotto has been at Velez since March 2025 and his side plays the same way from the other direction: 1.15 goals scored and 0.77 conceded across thirteen league matches, seven of them drawn. The week's one wrinkle is Velez's midweek exit from the Copa Argentina, beaten by Boca on penalties on 3 September after a goalless 120 minutes. Three matches in nine days, then a 300-kilometre trip to Rosario.
So the ambitions are lopsided and the football is not. Velez are chasing the zone lead and sit two points off the overall summit. Newell's are consolidating a play-off place. What both sides share is a total inability to create: 0.65 expected goals per game for Newell's and 0.93 for Velez, against a league average of 2.34. That is the match.
The markets
Total goals
Under 2.5
Newell's have cleared 2.5 goals in two of eight home matches and Velez in two of five away, with 0.65 and 0.93 expected goals per game against a league average of 2.34; we make it 72% against the market's 64%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Both teams to score
Yes
Both teams scored in eight of Newell's fourteen league matches and seven of Velez's thirteen, and in four of Velez's five away trips; we make it 52% against the market's 44%, and it is the exact shape of the 1-1 we predict.
Result & goals
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.15
5/5Only two of the eight competitive meetings between these sides have produced more than 2.5 goals, and neither team has scored three in a league match since July; we make it 88% against the market's 82%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.52
3/5Newell's have failed to score in three of fourteen league games and Velez in two of thirteen, which is why the 1-1 rather than the 0-0 is our scoreline; we make it 65% against the market's 62%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Total goals
Over 0.5Price 1.10
5/5Newell's have been blanked three times in fourteen league matches and Velez twice in thirteen, and none of the last eight meetings between them finished goalless; we make it 91% against the market's 85%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Cards
Total cards
Over 4.5Price 1.37
3/5Newell's league matches average 5.8 cards and Velez's 5.4 against a league average of 5.19, and Nicolas Ramirez averaged 7.70 yellows a match across 23 league games last season.
EvidenceRefereeDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 17:00 Rosario time
- Friday
- Venue
- Estadio Marcelo Bielsa
- Rosario
- Referee
- Nicolas Ramirez
- Salome Di Iorio on VAR
- Weather
- 18 °C, cloudy
- 10% chance of rain, wind 16 km/h with gusts to 45
- Rest
- 5 days vs 5
- Velez also played a cup tie on 3 September
Part one
Analysis
Two teams that concede little and create less. The goals chapter carries the argument; cards are where the referee changes the shape of the night.
01Goals
Start with the venue splits, because they are the cleanest read on this match. Across eight home matches this season Newell's have scored nine and conceded six — 1.12 and 0.75 per game — with four clean sheets and only two of the eight going over 2.5 goals. Velez on the road have played five, scored seven and conceded five, and drawn four of them. Add those rates together and you land almost exactly on two goals.
The league-wide figures say the same. In fourteen Liga Profesional matches Newell's have gone over 2.5 goals five times; in thirteen, Velez three times. The league runs at 2.08 goals a game with 36% over 2.5, and both of these sides sit under it. The market has under 2.5 at 1.47, an implied 64%, and we are comfortably above that number.
The underlying figures are worse than the results, which is the important part. Newell's generate 0.65 expected goals per game and concede 1.20. Velez generate 0.93 and concede 1.39. Both are being flattered by their goalkeepers and by opponents who miss; neither is a side you expect to break a tight game open. Over the eight competitive meetings between them there have been 1.75 goals per match and only two have cleared 2.5.
Newell's have gone over 2.5 goals in only two of eight home matches, Velez in two of five away; the league runs at 36%.
Sample: Liga 2026: 14 Newell's, 13 Velez matches; splits = home (8) and away (5) competitive form this season
| Metric | Newells Old BoysHome | Velez SarsfieldAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.291.12 at home | 1.151.4 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.860.75 at home | 0.771.0 away |
| Both teams scored | 57%38% at home | 54%80% away |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36%25% at home | 23%40% away |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Newell's create 0.65 expected goals a game and Velez 0.93, against a league average of 2.34; both concede more xG than they make.
Sample: Liga Profesional Argentina 2026, matches with published xG: 7 Newell's, 8 Velez
Newells Old BoysHome
avg xG 0.65 · avg xGA 1.20
1–0W
Talleres Cordoba (H)
1–0L
Independiente (A)
2–2D
Boca Juniors (H)
2–1L
Defensa Y Justicia (A)
2–0W
Deportivo Riestra (H)
0–0D
Estudiantes L.P. (A)
1–1D
Rosario Central (A)
Velez SarsfieldAway
avg xG 0.93 · avg xGA 1.39
0–1L
Gimnasia L.P. (H)
1–0W
Instituto Cordoba (H)
1–3W
Talleres Cordoba (A)
1–0W
Independiente (H)
1–1D
Boca Juniors (A)
1–1D
Defensa Y Justicia (H)
2–2D
River Plate (A)
1–1D
Deportivo Riestra (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Velez have won five of the eight competitive meetings on record and Newell's two, but at 1.75 goals per meeting and with only two of the eight clearing 2.5 goals; the last one, in Liniers in May, finished 1-1.
2
Newells Old Boys
1
Draws
5
Velez Sarsfield
4 May 2026·Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield1–1Newells Old Boys21 May 2024·Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield1–0Newells Old Boys3 Feb 2023·Liga Profesional Argentina
Newells Old Boys1–0Velez Sarsfield3 Sept 2022·Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield0–1Newells Old Boys9 Oct 2021·Liga Profesional Argentina
Newells Old Boys1–2Velez Sarsfield13 Feb 2021·Primera Division
Velez Sarsfield1–0Newells Old Boys3 Jan 2021·Primera Division
Newells Old Boys0–1Velez Sarsfield24 Aug 2019·Liga Profesional Argentina
Velez Sarsfield3–1Newells Old Boys
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total goals
Under 2.5Safer
Price 1.474/5Both teams to score
YesRiskier
Price 2.092/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.155/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.523/5Total goals
Over 0.5
Price 1.105/5
02Cards
This is the one line where both teams and the official pull the same way. Newell's matches have produced 5.8 cards across thirteen league games this season, with more than 3.5 in eleven of them. Velez sit at 5.4 with more than 3.5 in eight of thirteen. The league average is 5.19.
Then there is Nicolas Ramirez, who is not a referee who lets things run. He averaged 7.70 yellows per match across 23 Liga Profesional matches in 2025, against a league average this season of 4.88. Put a strict official on two sides that foul rather than concede — Newell's commit 13.06 fouls a game on weighted season averages — and the card count goes one way.
Nicolas Ramirez averaged 7.70 yellow cards a match in the league last season, against a league average of 4.88 this one.
Sample: Referee figures: Liga Profesional Argentina 2025, 23 matches; league average from 2026
Nicolas Ramirez
23 matches this season
league average
Newell's league matches have carried more than 3.5 cards eleven times in thirteen, at 5.8 per game against a league average of 5.19.
Sample: Liga Profesional Argentina 2026, 13 matches with statistics per side
| Metric | Newells Old BoysHome | Velez SarsfieldAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to the team per game | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 85% | 62% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 4.5
Price 1.373/5
03Corners
The corner counts describe the two teams neatly without being worth a call. Newell's concede territory: 4.1 corners won against 6.1 conceded across thirteen league matches, 10.2 in the match on average, with more than 9.5 in seven of thirteen. Velez are the mirror image, 5.2 won against 4.2 conceded and 9.4 in the match, clearing 9.5 in five of thirteen.
Both sit near the league's 8.68 average and the two profiles cancel each other: the side that concedes corners is at home against the side that wins them and then does nothing with them. That is a coin flip, and we leave it in the chapter rather than on the board.
Newell's concede 6.1 corners a game and win 4.1; Velez win 5.2 and concede 4.2, which leaves the match total near the league's 8.68.
Sample: Liga Profesional Argentina 2026, 13 matches with statistics per side
| Metric | Newells Old BoysHome | Velez SarsfieldAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for per game | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per game | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| Corners in the match per game | 10.2 | 9.4 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 54% | 38% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 0.65
- Newell's expected goals per league game
- Against a league average of 2.34. A side that creates this little does not win matches by two, and rarely loses them by two either.
- 4 of 5
- Velez away matches drawn this season
- Three of them in a row. The best team in the zone keeps turning away days into a point, and Rosario is the hardest trip left.
- 23%
- of Velez league matches go over 2.5 goals
- Three in thirteen, against 36% for the league. Their matches are settled by one goal or not at all.
- 7.70
- yellow cards per match for the referee
- Nicolas Ramirez's league average last season, well clear of the 4.88 this division is running at now.
Everything above points the same direction, which is unusual and is why the confidence sits where it does. The one number that does not is the both-teams-to-score split: Velez have seen both teams score in four of five away games, Newell's in only three of eight at home. That gap is the whole argument of the riskier call.
Part two
Who plays, and how
No confirmed absences on either side. The interest is in the shape: two 4-2-3-1s, one built to hold the Coloso and one built to pass around it.
05Expected XI
Both coaches are expected to name a 4-2-3-1; the only open call is Newell's left side, where Russo and Cabrera are competing.
Newells Old BoysHome
Frank Dario Kudelka
Velez SarsfieldAway
Guillermo Barros Schelotto
Probable XIs as reported by Rosario and Buenos Aires outlets on 10 September 2026, ordered goalkeeper first then each line left to right. Bruno Cabrera is the alternative to Russo on the left.
06Shape and plan
Who has the ball, and why it does not help
Velez average 54% possession and 76% pass accuracy on weighted season figures against 44% and 73% for Newell's, and Barros Schelotto's side will have the ball for long stretches. It has not translated: 11.73 shots a game producing 0.93 expected goals. Newell's are happy to sit at 44% and defend a deep block — they have conceded only six in eight at home.
Lanzini against the Regiardo-Herrera screen
Everything Velez make goes through Manuel Lanzini between the lines. Kudelka's answer is a flat double pivot of Luca Regiardo and Rodrigo Herrera whose job is to deny the pocket rather than win the ball. If Lanzini gets turns in that space, the 0.75 goals Newell's concede per home game goes up quickly.
Coccaro alone, and the second ball
Matias Coccaro leads a line by himself and Newell's do not build to him — they go long and hunt the knockdown, which is why they win only 4.1 corners a game. Against Lisandro Magallan and Thiago Silvero he will not win many. Newell's goals will come from Mazzantti and Solari arriving late, as in the derby.
The wind and the referee
Gusts to 45 km/h on a cool Rosario night suit the side that wants a scrappy match, and Nicolas Ramirez's 7.70 yellows a game last season means neither midfield can foul its way out of trouble for ninety minutes. Both push the night towards fragments rather than flow.
07Three duels
Matias Coccaro
Newells Old Boys · ST
Newell's only reliable finisher and the man who rescued the derby in stoppage time. If he does not start, the both-teams-to-score lean weakens badly.
Scored the 1-1 equaliser against Rosario Central on 6 September
Manuel Lanzini
Velez Sarsfield · AM
The one player on the pitch who can unlock a low block with a single pass, and the reason Velez's 0.93 xG a game is not lower still.
Velez average 54% possession with him in the ten
Lautaro Giannetti
Newells Old Boys · CB
Organises the back four that has kept four clean sheets in eight at the Coloso, and knows Velez's forwards from his years in Liniers.
4 clean sheets in 8 home matches
Florian Monzon
Velez Sarsfield · ST
Leads the line for a side that has failed to score only twice in thirteen league games; he does not need chances, he needs one.
Velez failed to score in 2 of 13 league matches
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
08How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 36%chanceMost likely
The 1-1 neither side can break
Velez have the ball, Newell's have the block, and the first goal arrives after the hour from a set piece or a mistake. Whoever scores it does not get a second: Velez have scored more than once in only three of thirteen league games, and Newell's create 0.65 xG a match.
- 34%chance
Velez find the one goal
Lanzini turns between the lines, Monzon or Pellegrini finishes, and Velez do what they did to Estudiantes, Independiente and Instituto: win 1-0 and defend it. A 101-point Elo edge and a 79% long-term rating against 48% make this the likeliest single scoreline.
- 30%chance
The Coloso decides it
Newell's have won four of eight at home and Velez arrive eight days after 120 minutes and penalties in Buenos Aires. Coccaro or a late runner turns one scrappy moment into a 1-0 and the block holds; Newell's have conceded twice at home only twice in eight.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Velez are the better team and have drawn four of five on the road. Newell's are not the better team and have lost once in eight at home. When the two best arguments cancel, take the point.
09The verdict
The draw, and a 1-1 that suits nobody
We make it Newells Old Boys 30%, the draw 36%, Velez Sarsfield 34%, against a market reading of 33%, 32% and 35% — close enough that no gap needs explaining, and close enough that neither side can be the call at 2.84 or 2.64. Neither club is in crisis: Velez are unbeaten in nine and top of Zone A, Newell's unbeaten in four. Neither coach is new — Kudelka since February, Barros Schelotto since March 2025 — so there is no bounce to price. No absence on either side was confirmed by a reliable source, so nothing on the team sheet moves the number. What decides it is that Velez's quality edge (Elo 1679 to 1578, a long-term rating of 79% against 48%) is worth roughly what home advantage is worth, and that both sides are built to avoid losing rather than to win: 0.65 and 0.93 expected goals a game against a league average of 2.34, and four Velez draws in five away trips. The safer call is under 2.5 goals at 1.47; the riskier is both teams to score at 2.09, the shape of the 1-1 we expect and the one line where the market sits below both sides' season rates.
What would change our mind
- If Coccaro does not start, drop the both-teams-to-score call — he scored the derby equaliser and Newell's have failed to score three times in fourteen without a focal point.
- If Barros Schelotto rests Lanzini after the cup shootout, lean harder on under 2.5 and cut the both-teams-to-score lean.
- If the forecast 45 km/h gusts arrive, the under lines get stronger and the draw firmer; it strengthens the safer call, not the riskier one.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite in Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
- Nobody, really. The market makes Velez Sarsfield a marginal favourite at 2.64 against 2.84 for Newells Old Boys and 2.92 for the draw, and the 101-point Elo gap in Velez Sarsfield's favour is almost exactly cancelled by home advantage at the Coloso. Our own numbers are Newells Old Boys 30%, the draw 36%, Velez Sarsfield 34%, so the draw is the call.
- What is the predicted score for Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
- 1-1. Newells Old Boys have scored 1.12 and conceded 0.75 per game across their eight home matches this season; Velez Sarsfield have scored 1.40 and conceded 1.00 across their five away games. Both sets of numbers point to a single goal each and a total under 2.5, which is the safer call at 1.47.
- What is the head-to-head record between Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield?
- In the eight competitive meetings on record Velez Sarsfield have won five, Newells Old Boys two and one was drawn, at 1.75 goals per meeting with over 2.5 goals in only two of the eight. The most recent was a 1-1 draw in Liniers on 4 May 2026.
- Are there injuries or suspensions for Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
- No absences were confirmed by reliable sources in the 72 hours before kick-off for Newells Old Boys or Velez Sarsfield. The one open question is at the back for Newells Old Boys, where Frank Dario Kudelka must choose between Jeronimo Russo and Bruno Cabrera in the back four.
- Who referees Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
- Nicolas Ramirez, with Salome Di Iorio on VAR, takes Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield. Ramirez averaged 7.70 yellow cards per match across 23 Liga Profesional Argentina games in 2025, well above this season's league average of 4.88, which is why the cards line sits on the board as a lean.
Written 11 Sept 2026, 01:55 · Updated 11 Sept 2026, 01:55 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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