Who is favourite for Vissel Kobe vs Kashima?

The market makes Kashima the favourite at 2.43, with Kobe at 2.92 and the draw at 3.15. We disagree: we make it Vissel Kobe 43%, draw 27%, Kashima 30%, because Kobe have conceded 0.67 goals per J1 match this season against Kashima's 1.83 and are playing at home.

What is the predicted score for Vissel Kobe vs Kashima?

Vissel Kobe 2-1 Kashima. Kobe have led at half-time in three of six J1 matches and Kashima have trailed in three of six, but Kashima's scoring weight sits after the break, so we expect a Kobe lead and a late Kashima reply.

Who is missing for Vissel Kobe and Kashima?

Kobe are without Anderson Lopes (muscle injury), Takahiro Ogihara and Daiju Sasaki. Kashima are without Koki Anzai (left knee ligament injury) and Yuta Higuchi (fractured right fibula), both hurt in a July training camp, plus Yan Matheus with a muscle problem. Kashima have played the whole season without all three.

Will there be goals in Vissel Kobe vs Kashima?

We lean over 2.5 at 2.13, making it 54% against the market's 44%. Over 2.5 has landed in four of Kashima's six J1 matches and their three away trips have produced 5.0 goals a game, while two of Kobe's three home matches have gone over.

Vissel Kobe vs Kashima preview: aerial view of a football pitch with the ball on the centre spot

FootballJ1 League — Round 7

Vissel Kobe vs Kashima

Fri 11 Sept · 19:00Noevir Stadium, Kobe

AI deep previewGenerated 10 Sept 2026match#j1-league#noevir-stadium

Vissel KobeHome

KashimaAway

Home side first and left in every table.

In short

The call: Vissel Kobe to win. We make it 43% home, 27% draw, 30% Kashima; the market has the away side favourite at 38%.
The one stat: Kobe have conceded 0.67 goals per J1 match this season. Kashima have conceded 1.83, and 2.33 in their three away trips.
The risk: Kashima take 17.7 shots per J1 match, more than any side Kobe have faced, and their second half is worth 2.19 goals a game.
The calls: Safer: Vissel Kobe or draw at 1.51. Riskier: Vissel Kobe -0.5 at 2.80. Five more leans on the board.

The situation

Any Vissel Kobe vs Kashima prediction has to start with the table, because one point separates them. Kobe are second on 13 points from six matches (W4 D1 L1), Kashima third on 12 from six (W4 D0 L2). Both sit inside the Asian Champions League places in a season that is only six rounds old, the first J1 campaign to run across two calendar years after the switch to an autumn-spring calendar in August.

Neither club is in crisis, but the trend lines cross here. Kobe have won three in a row, 1-0 at home to Cerezo Osaka, 2-0 away at Tokyo Verdy and 3-1 at home to V-varen Nagasaki, and have conceded four goals in six matches. Kashima opened with four straight wins and have then lost two, 2-4 away at Mito Hollyhock and 0-1 at home to Urawa. Two defeats is a wobble, not a collapse, and the champions of 2025 do not become a bad side in nine days. But it is Kashima, not Kobe, who have the questions to answer, and they answer them away from home.

The coaches point the same way. Michael Skibbe was announced as Kobe's head coach in December 2025 and has the side pressing higher in a 4-1-2-3 that has started all six matches this season. Toru Oniki, in charge at Kashima since December 2024 and the man who ended the club's nine-year title wait in 2025, lost Koki Anzai and Yuta Higuchi to serious injuries in a July training camp and has been rebuilding the left side and the midfield ever since.

The markets

Safer call

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

1.51Confidence 4/5

We make Kobe plus the draw 70% against the market's implied 62%, on a side that has conceded 0.67 goals per J1 match and is unbeaten in three home matches this season.

EvidenceGoals table Team news

Riskier call

Asian handicap

Vissel Kobe -0.5

2.80Confidence 3/5

The verdict pushed to the win: our 43% against the market's 32%, built on four goals conceded in six matches against Kashima's eleven.

EvidenceGoals table Head-to-head

Result & goals

Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.35
4/5
Kashima's matches have carried at least two goals in five of six and their away trips have averaged 5.0 a game; we make this 74% against the market's 69%.
EvidenceGoals table
Total goals
Over 2.5Price 2.13
3/5
Over 2.5 has landed in four of Kashima's six J1 matches and in two of Kobe's three at home; we make it 54% against the market's 44%.
EvidenceGoals table
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.83
3/5
Kashima have scored in five of six J1 matches and Kobe have conceded in two of their three at home; we make it 57% against the market's 51%.
EvidenceGoals table Head-to-head
Double chance
Vissel Kobe or draw1st halfPrice 1.31
4/5
Kashima have trailed at half-time in three of their six J1 matches while Kobe have led in three; the visitors' scoring weight sits after the break.
EvidenceGoals table

Corners

Total corners
Under 9.5Price 1.55
3/5
Over 9.5 has landed in only two of six for each side, four of twelve in all, with match totals averaging 8.0 for Kobe and 9.0 for Kashima.
EvidenceCorners

Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.

Match sheet

Kick-off: 19:00 Kobe time; Friday
Venue: Noevir Stadium, Kobe
Weather: 23 °C, dry; 18% chance of rain, humidity 90%, light wind
Rest: 5 days vs 5; neither side played midweek
Table: 2nd vs 3rd; 13 points vs 12, both from six matches

Part one

Analysis

Where the goals come from, why Kashima's away matches keep breaking 2.5, and why the corner count stays modest.

01Goals

The two attacks are close and the two defences are not. Kobe have scored nine in six J1 matches (1.50 a game) and conceded four (0.67), with three clean sheets. Kashima have scored 13 (2.17) and conceded 11 (1.83), with one clean sheet. That is the match in one line: Kashima will make chances, Kobe will make fewer of them count for the visitors.

The venue split sharpens it. In three home matches Kobe have scored six and conceded three; their home games have produced 4, 1 and 4 goals. Kashima's three away trips have produced 2, 6 and 7 goals, an average of 5.0 a game, because they win shootouts as often as they win matches. That is why we lean over 2.5 here even though Kobe's own matches have gone over only twice in six.

The halves matter too. Kobe have led at half-time in three of six and trailed once; Kashima have trailed at half-time in three of six. Kashima's weight is in the second half, where their goals rate roughly doubles. The shape we expect is Kobe ahead by the interval and Kashima chasing after it.

Kobe have conceded 0.67 goals per J1 match this season, Kashima 1.83, and Kashima's three away trips have produced 5.0 goals a game.

Sample: J1 League 2026/27, 6 matches each; splits are Kobe at home and Kashima away, 3 matches each

Metric	Vissel KobeHome	KashimaAway
Points per game	2.172.33 at home	2.02.0 away
Goals scored per game	1.52.0 at home	2.172.67 away
Goals conceded per game	0.671.0 at home	1.832.33 away
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Both teams scored	33%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	33%	67%
Shots per game	11.3	17.7

Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.

Eight competitive meetings, Kobe four wins, Kashima three, one draw, 2.50 goals a meeting; the two most recent were both home routs, Kobe 5-0 and Kashima 2-0.

Vissel Kobe

Draws

Kashima

6 Jun 2026·J1 League
Kashima2–0Vissel Kobe
30 May 2026·J1 League
Vissel Kobe5–0Kashima
17 Oct 2025·J1 League
Vissel Kobe0–0Kashima
29 Mar 2025·J1 League
Kashima1–0Vissel Kobe
25 Sept 2024·Emperor Cup
Kashima0–3Vissel Kobe
30 Jun 2024·J1 League
Vissel Kobe3–1Kashima
19 May 2024·J1 League
Kashima1–0Vissel Kobe
21 Oct 2023·J1 League
Vissel Kobe3–1Kashima

Home side listed first. Winner in bold.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Double chance
Vissel Kobe or drawSafer
Price 1.514/5
Asian handicap
Vissel Kobe -0.5Riskier
Price 2.803/5
Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.354/5
Total goals
Over 2.5
Price 2.133/5
Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.833/5
Double chance
Vissel Kobe or draw1st half
Price 1.314/5

02Corners

Neither side floods the corner count. Kobe's six J1 matches have averaged 8.0 corners in total, 3.7 won and 4.3 conceded; Kashima's have averaged 9.0, split 4.5 and 4.5. The J1 average is 8.95 and over 9.5 has landed in 38% of matches this season.

Over 9.5 has come up in two of six for each of them, four of twelve in all. Kobe play through the middle and shoot early rather than working the byline, and Kashima's 17.7 shots a game come mostly from open play rather than from a siege. The under is the read.

Kobe's J1 matches have averaged 8.0 corners and Kashima's 9.0; over 9.5 has landed in only 2 of 6 for each side.

Sample: J1 League 2026/27, 6 matches each with corner data

Metric	Vissel KobeHome	KashimaAway
Corners won per game	3.7	4.5
Corners conceded per game	4.3	4.5
Corners per match in their games	8.0	9.0
Over 9.5 corners	33%	33%

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Total corners
Under 9.5
Price 1.553/5

03The numbers that matter

0.67
goals Kobe concede per J1 match: Four conceded in six matches, with three clean sheets. It is the best defensive run of the two by a distance.; 5.0
goals a game in Kashima's away matches: Their three trips finished 2-0, 2-4 and 4-3. Kashima away is an event, whichever way it breaks.; 3 of 6
J1 matches Kashima trailed at half-time: They start slowly and score late. Kobe have led at the interval in three of six.

One caution before the calls. Six matches is a small season and three away matches is a smaller one, so the away goal rate is a direction rather than a level. What survives the small sample is the defensive gap: four goals conceded against eleven, over the same number of matches, against the same league.

Part two

Who plays, and how

Both sides are missing players, but only one of them has been missing them since before the season started.

04Team news

Kashima have played all six matches of this season without Anzai, Higuchi and Yan Matheus; Kobe have taken 13 points from six without Anderson Lopes.

Vissel KobeHome

Anderson LopesST
muscle injury
Goals
Out
Takahiro OgiharaDM
Result
Out
Daiju SasakiLW
Goals
Out

KashimaAway

Koki AnzaiLB
left knee ligament injury
ResultGoals
Out
Yuta HiguchiCM
fractured right fibula
Result
Out
Yan MatheusRW
muscle injury
Goals
Out

Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and league absence lists, checked on Thursday. Anzai and Higuchi were both hurt in a July training camp, before the season began.

05Shape and plan

Kobe's rest defence against Kashima's volume

Kashima take 17.7 shots per J1 match, the higher count of the two by six, and still concede 1.83. Kobe take 11.3 and concede 0.67. Skibbe's 4-1-2-3 has started all six matches with a single anchor in front of the back four, and the whole plan is to make the opponent's extra shots the wrong shots. Kashima's problem is not creating; it is that they give the same back.

The first 45 minutes

Kobe have led at half-time in three of six and trailed once. Kashima have trailed in three of six, and their scoring weight sits after the break, where their goals rate roughly doubles. If Kobe get the opening goal the match runs to the script we expect: Kashima chasing, space behind, a second goal at one end or the other.

Kashima's rebuilt left side

Anzai's knee injury in July removed the first-choice left-back for the season and Ryoya Ogawa has taken the shirt. Higuchi's broken fibula thinned the midfield at the same time. Kashima won their first four anyway, so this is not an excuse, but it is why the away defence has looked like a work in progress: seven conceded in three trips.

Set-piece economy

Neither side works corners as a weapon. Kobe average 3.7 won per J1 match, Kashima 4.5, and the total in their matches sits at 8.0 and 9.0 against a league average of 8.95. Expect goals from open play and transition, not from the second ball at a flag kick.

06Three duels

Yuya Osako

Vissel Kobe · ST

Kobe's reference point through the middle, the man who holds the ball while the front three reset the press.

3 starts at centre-forward in 6 J1 matches

Yosuke Ideguchi

Vissel Kobe · CM

The single pivot in the 4-1-2-3 and the reason Kobe concede so little; every Kashima counter has to go through or around him.

6 starts in 6 J1 matches

Shuichi Gonda

Vissel Kobe · GK

Three clean sheets in six say the goalkeeping has matched the defending against a side that shoots this often.

4 starts in 6 J1 matches

Léo Ceará

Kashima · ST

The league's most reliable finisher this season and the only Kashima player who does not need the game to be open to score.

8 goals this season

Aleksandar Čavrić

Kashima · RW

The width and the second finisher, more dangerous when the match stretches after the break.

3 goals this season

Naomichi Ueda

Kashima · CB

Has to hold a back line that has conceded eleven in six while a rebuilt left side settles behind him.

Part three

The call

Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.

07How it could go

Three ways this match goes

Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first

43%chanceMost likely
Kobe lead at the break and hold on
Kobe start faster, as they have in three of six, and lead before the interval. Kashima push after the break, where their goals rate doubles, and pull one back. Kobe's four-goals-in-six defence does enough. 2-1, with the visitors camped in the Kobe half.
30%chance
Kashima's volume finally tells
The 17.7 shots a game become goals, as they did in the 4-3 at Yokohama. Léo Ceará gets an early one, Kobe have to open up and the game becomes the shootout Kashima keep having on the road. Their away trips have produced 5.0 goals a game for a reason.
27%chance
Two tight defences, one goal or none
Kobe's 1-0 template wins the day at both ends. Three of their six J1 matches have finished with a single goal in them, and the sides drew 0-0 here in October 2025. A cagey draw keeps them level on the table.

The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.

Kashima make more chances and give more away. Over ninety minutes at Noevir, the side that has conceded four goals in six matches is the one you want.

DeepPreviews analysis desk

08The verdict

Kobe's defence outlasts Kashima's chaos

We make it Vissel Kobe 43%, draw 27%, Kashima 30%. The market has the away side favourite at 38% against Kobe's 32%, and we cannot follow it. Neither club is in crisis, so that check settles nothing, but the coaching and player checks both point home: Skibbe's 4-1-2-3 has started all six matches and produced four goals conceded in six, while Oniki has been rebuilding a left side since Anzai's knee and Higuchi's fibula went in a July training camp. Those two absences pass the with/without test in Kashima's favour, not against them, because the side won its first four without them, so the last two defeats are about the defence, not the injury list: eleven conceded in six, seven of them in three away trips. Add the ratings, level on the raw numbers at 1650 against 1661, and the home advantage that a neutral scale does not price, and Kobe are the side we would back. Kashima's shot volume is real and keeps the price honest, which is why the safer call is the double chance rather than the win.

Vissel Kobe 2-1 Kashima

What would change our mind

If Léo Ceará is named out, drop the over 2.5 lean and raise the double chance.
If Kashima score first, the correct-score read moves to a high-scoring draw and the riskier call is in trouble.
If Kobe rest Ideguchi with the schedule ahead, soften the first-half double chance.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Vissel Kobe vs Kashima?: The market makes Kashima the favourite at 2.43, with Kobe at 2.92 and the draw at 3.15. We disagree: we make it Vissel Kobe 43%, draw 27%, Kashima 30%, because Kobe have conceded 0.67 goals per J1 match this season against Kashima's 1.83 and are playing at home.
What is the predicted score for Vissel Kobe vs Kashima?: Vissel Kobe 2-1 Kashima. Kobe have led at half-time in three of six J1 matches and Kashima have trailed in three of six, but Kashima's scoring weight sits after the break, so we expect a Kobe lead and a late Kashima reply.
Who is missing for Vissel Kobe and Kashima?: Kobe are without Anderson Lopes (muscle injury), Takahiro Ogihara and Daiju Sasaki. Kashima are without Koki Anzai (left knee ligament injury) and Yuta Higuchi (fractured right fibula), both hurt in a July training camp, plus Yan Matheus with a muscle problem. Kashima have played the whole season without all three.
What is the head-to-head record between Vissel Kobe and Kashima?: In their last eight competitive meetings Vissel Kobe have won four, Kashima three, with one draw, at 2.50 goals a meeting. The two most recent were both home routs: Kobe won 5-0 in May 2026 and Kashima won 2-0 in June 2026. The last meeting at Noevir before that finished 0-0.
Will there be goals in Vissel Kobe vs Kashima?: We lean over 2.5 at 2.13, making it 54% against the market's 44%. Over 2.5 has landed in four of Kashima's six J1 matches and their three away trips have produced 5.0 goals a game, while two of Kobe's three home matches have gone over.

Written 10 Sept 2026, 19:15 · Updated 10 Sept 2026, 19:15 UTC.

AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.