Who is favourite for Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK?

Beşiktaş, clearly. They are second with 9 points from four matches (W3 D0 L1) and have won their last five home competitive matches, scoring 2.40 and conceding 0.40 a game. Erzurumspor are 15th with 4 points from four, two scored and eight conceded. The Elo scale reads 1748 to 1578. We make it Beşiktaş 72%, draw 18%, Erzurumspor 10%.

What is the predicted score for Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK?

Beşiktaş 2-0. Erzurumspor average 0.50 goals a game in the league on 0.72 xG and drop into a 5-4-1, so the hosts should need patience rather than volume. Beşiktaş have kept four clean sheets in their last five home matches and led at half-time in all five.

Is Dušan Vlahović playing against Erzurumspor?

It was unresolved at the time of writing. Vlahović, who has four league goals this season, was referred to the disciplinary board after the derby at Fenerbahçe, with a two-to-five-match suspension sought, and Beşiktaş said they would appeal any ruling. Probable-XI reports on Wednesday had Hyeon-gyu Oh leading the line instead.

Who is missing for Beşiktaş and Erzurumspor FK?

Rıdvan Yılmaz is out for Beşiktaş with a left thigh strain diagnosed on 8 September, roughly a two-week absence, with Kassoum Ouattara expected at left-back. Vlahović is a doubt pending a disciplinary ruling. Erzurumspor reported a full squad in training, with Elisha Owusu the only fitness question.

What is the head-to-head record?

Six competitive meetings. Beşiktaş won three, Erzurumspor two - both of those in a January 2020 cup tie - and one finished level. The sides have not met since April 2021, when Beşiktaş won 4-2 in Erzurum, so squads and coaching staff have turned over completely since.

Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK preview: supporters raising scarves as the sun sets over a stadium

FootballSüper Lig — Round 5

Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK

Fri 11 Sept · 20:00Besiktas Park, Istanbul

AI deep previewGenerated 10 Sept 2026match#super-lig#besiktas-park#turkey

BeşiktaşHome

Erzurumspor FKAway

Home side first and left in every table.

In short

The call: Beşiktaş, and by two. Five straight home wins at 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded a game.
The one stat: Erzurumspor have scored twice in four Süper Lig matches - 0.50 a game - and conceded 2.00.
The risk: Italiano rotates with Marseille six days away and Vlahović awaits a disciplinary ruling; a thinner front line can stall against a 5-4-1.
The calls: Safer: Beşiktaş to win at 1.27. Riskier: Beşiktaş -1.5 at 1.82. Four more leans on the board.

The situation

A Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor prediction starts with the size of the gap. Beşiktaş sit second with 9 points from four matches (W3 D0 L1) and arrive off a 2-1 win at Fenerbahçe. Erzurumspor, up as 1. Lig champions, are 15th with 4 points from four, two scored and eight conceded. The Elo scale has it 1748 to 1578, a 170-point gap before home advantage is added. Neither club is in crisis: Beşiktaş have won two in a row, and Erzurumspor are unbeaten in two after a 1-0 win over Konyaspor.

Vincenzo Italiano took the Beşiktaş job on 6 June 2026 on a two-year deal, the club's 64th coach, replacing Sergen Yalçın. His record is 8 wins from his first 10 competitive matches (W8 D0 L2), 17 scored and 5 conceded. Serkan Özbalta has run Erzurumspor since 2025 and signed a new contract on 2 July after the title. His answer to the Süper Lig is a 5-4-1 that keeps matches tight early: 0-0 at the break at Amed and at Gençlerbirliği.

The week has been about Europe and a hearing. Beşiktaş open the Europa League league phase at home to Marseille on 17 September, and Italiano has told Taylan Bulut, Kassoum Ouattara, Wilfred Ndidi, Fabio Miretti and Ernest Poku to be ready - partial rotation, not a second XI. Rıdvan Yılmaz is out with a thigh strain diagnosed on 8 September. Dušan Vlahović, four league goals so far, was referred to the disciplinary board after the derby and was still waiting on a decision.

The markets

Safer call

Match result

Beşiktaş

1.27Confidence 4/5

Five straight home wins at 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded a game against a side scoring 0.50 in four league matches; we make it 72% against the market's 73%.

EvidenceGoals table xG trend Team news

Riskier call

Asian handicap

Beşiktaş -1.5

1.82Confidence 3/5

Those five home wins came at 2.40 goals a game against Erzurumspor's 2.00 conceded on 1.64 xG against; a two-goal margin is the call pushed one step, and the rotation for Marseille is why it is not the safer one.

EvidenceGoals table xG trend

Result & goals

Both teams to score
NoPrice 1.66
3/5
Erzurumspor failed to score in two of four league matches and average 0.50 a game on 0.72 xG, while Beşiktaş kept four clean sheets in five home matches; we make No 62% against the market's 56%.
EvidenceGoals table xG trend
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.46
3/5
Beşiktaş at 2.25 a game plus Erzurumspor at 0.50 points to roughly 2.7 goals, and four needs the visitors to score twice, which they have not done in four league matches; we make it 70% against the market's 64%.
EvidenceGoals table xG trend
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.19
3/5
Beşiktaş have scored in all five of their last five home competitive matches at 2.40 a game, so only a 1-0 grind breaks this; we make it 80%, in line with the market's 79%.
EvidenceGoals table

Corners

Total corners
Over 7.5Price 1.32
3/5
Beşiktaş alone win 7.5 corners a game in the league against a side that will defend its box, and their matches have averaged 11.8; the 9.5 line is where the visitors' 3.0 conceded a game starts to bite.
EvidenceCorners

Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.

Match sheet

Kick-off: 20:00 Istanbul time; Friday
Venue: Beşiktaş Park, Istanbul
Weather: 23 °C, breezy; 24 km/h wind, 5% chance of rain
Rest: 6 days vs 6; neither side played midweek
Next up: Marseille at home, 17 September; why Beşiktaş rotate

Part one

Analysis

Where the goals come from, why the cards column runs hot at Beşiktaş Park, and what a back five does to the corner count.

01Goals

Beşiktaş have scored 2.25 a game across four Süper Lig matches and 2.40 a game across their last five home competitive matches, conceding 0.40 in those five with four clean sheets and a half-time lead in all five. Erzurumspor have scored twice in four league matches, 0.50 a game on 0.72 xG, and conceded 2.00 a game on 1.64 xG against. Their two away matches read 0.50 for and 2.00 against.

Shape decides the rhythm. Özbalta drops into a 5-4-1 and has held two of four league matches goalless at the interval, so this should be volume rather than an early flood: 16.2 shots a game against 9.5 in the league. That points one way for the result and another for the total. Under 3.5 goals at 1.46 and both teams to score No at 1.66 both fall out of the same 0.50 a game.

Beşiktaş score 2.25 a game in the league to Erzurumspor's 0.50, and the away side concede 2.00.

Sample: Süper Lig 2026/27, 4 matches each; splits are last 5 home and last 2 away, all competitions

Metric	BeşiktaşHome	Erzurumspor FKAway
Goals scored per game	2.252.4 at home	0.50.5 away
Goals conceded per game	1.00.4 at home	2.02.0 away
xG created per game	1.65	0.72
xG conceded per game	0.42	1.64
Both teams scored	50%	25%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.

Beşiktaş have out-created their opponent in three of four league matches; Erzurumspor top out at 1.24 xG.

Sample: Süper Lig 2026/27, 4 matches each

BeşiktaşHome

avg xG 1.65 · avg xGA 0.42

1.30.1

1–0W

Eyüpspor (H)

0.70.4

1–0L

Alanyaspor (A)

2.90.6

6–2W

Çorum FK (H)

1.80.6

1–2W

Fenerbahçe (A)

Erzurumspor FKAway

avg xG 0.73 · avg xGA 1.64

0.31.1

3–0L

Amed (A)

0.53.1

0–4L

Galatasaray (H)

0.90.8

1–1D

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (A)

1.21.6

1–0W

Konyaspor (H)

xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.

Beşiktaş won three of the six meetings and Erzurumspor two, both in a January 2020 cup tie. The sides have not met since April 2021.

Beşiktaş

Draws

Erzurum BB

11 Apr 2021·Süper Lig
Erzurum BB2–4Beşiktaş
20 Dec 2020·Süper Lig
Beşiktaş4–0Erzurum BB
22 Jan 2020·Cup
Besiktas2–3Erzurum BB
15 Jan 2020·Cup
Erzurum BB3–2Besiktas
25 Jan 2019·Süper Lig
Beşiktaş1–1Erzurum BB
19 Aug 2018·Süper Lig
Erzurum BB1–3Beşiktaş

Home side listed first. Winner in bold.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Match result
BeşiktaşSafer
Price 1.274/5
Asian handicap
Beşiktaş -1.5Riskier
Price 1.823/5
Both teams to score
No
Price 1.663/5
Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.463/5
Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.193/5

02Cards

Beşiktaş matches run hot. Their four Süper Lig matches have averaged 4.5 cards, over 3.5 in three of them, against a league average of 3.97. Erzurumspor's four have averaged 3.2, with over 3.5 in two. The split matters more than the total: Beşiktaş take 1.8 a game themselves and their opponents take 2.8, which is what a side chasing the ball in a low block collects.

No referee had been appointed at the time of writing, so there is no discipline profile to weigh against those numbers. Without one, there is no cards lean on the board.

Beşiktaş matches average 4.5 cards against a league average of 3.97, and 2.8 of them go to the opponent.

Sample: Süper Lig 2026/27, 4 matches each with card data

Metric	BeşiktaşHome	Erzurumspor FKAway
Cards taken per game	1.8	1.2
Opponent cards per game	2.8	2.0
Cards per match, both sides	4.5	3.2

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

03Corners

Beşiktaş win 7.5 corners a game in the league and concede 4.2, for 11.8 in their matches and over 9.5 in three of four. Erzurumspor's four have averaged 6.8 with none over 9.5, and they concede only 3.0 - Galatasaray managed two corners against them while winning 4-0. A back five that defends its own box narrows the funnel.

Put those together and the honest number sits close to nine, not twelve. Beşiktaş's 16.2 shots a game should force the count up, but the away side contributes almost nothing at the other end. Over 7.5 at 1.32 is where the evidence actually reaches; the 9.5 line is a coin toss and we leave it.

Beşiktaş win 7.5 corners a game to Erzurumspor's 3.8, but the visitors concede only 3.0 a game.

Sample: Süper Lig 2026/27, 4 matches each with corner data

Metric	BeşiktaşHome	Erzurumspor FKAway
Corners won per game	7.5	3.8
Corners conceded per game	4.2	3.0
Corners per match, both sides	11.8	6.8

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Total corners
Over 7.5
Price 1.323/5

04The numbers that matter

0.50
Erzurumspor goals per league game: Two goals in four Süper Lig matches on 0.72 xG a game. They have never scored twice in a match this season.; 5
straight home wins for Beşiktaş: 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded a game in those five competitive matches, four clean sheets, and a lead at half-time in all five.; 170
Elo points between the clubs: A gap that size wins roughly two matches in three on neutral ground; home advantage is worth another 60 to 80 points.

The venue splits rest on small samples - five home matches for Beşiktaş, two away for Erzurumspor - so read them as direction, not precision. Everything else here is drawn from four league matches a side.

Part two

Who plays, and how

One disciplinary hearing, one thigh strain and a European tie six days later decide how strong this Beşiktaş XI really is.

05Team news

Vlahović, four league goals in four, awaits a disciplinary ruling; Rıdvan Yılmaz is out around two weeks with a thigh strain.

BeşiktaşHome

Dušan VlahovićST
awaiting a disciplinary ruling
GoalsResult
Doubtful
Rıdvan YılmazLB
left thigh strain
Goals
Out

Erzurumspor FKAway

Elisha OwusuDM
fitness
Goals
Doubtful

Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Turkish club and national reporting from 6 to 10 September. Erzurumspor trained with a full squad; Owusu has not been a regular starter, so the grade is low.

06Expected XI

Italiano is expected to keep 4-2-3-1 with Oh leading the line; Erzurumspor set up 5-4-1 with a full squad.

BeşiktaşHome

Vincenzo Italiano

4-2-3-1Probable

Erzurumspor FKAway

Serkan Özbalta

5-4-1Probable

Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line. Italiano's one open slot is the left wing, where İlhan Fakılı could replace Trossard with Marseille in mind.

07Shape and plan

Width against a back five

Černý and Trossard have to drag Ovacıklı and Giorbelidze wide before Beşiktaş get anything central. That pattern is where 7.5 corners a game in the league comes from, and it is also why the hosts' opponents pick up 2.8 cards a match.

Kökçü between the lines

Erzurumspor's four-man screen sits compact rather than pressing high - 35% possession against Konyaspor and 9.5 shots a game says they invite it. Kökçü is the one who can slide Oh in behind Yumlu and Mujakić without a cross.

Erzurumspor's one route

Eren Tozlu has both of their league goals. With 1.64 xG conceded a game they cannot trade chances, so their evening depends on a set piece and one transition landing before the hour.

The rotation question

Ndidi, Miretti, Poku and Taylan Bulut have been told to be ready. Beşiktaş are strong enough to change four and still be favourites, but a rebuilt front line takes longer to break a block, which is what pushes the total down rather than up.

08Three duels

Hyeon-Gyu Oh

Beşiktaş · ST

The likely starter if Vlahović is suspended, and the movement that a deep back five has to track rather than screen.

Orkun Kökçü

Beşiktaş · AM

The only Beşiktaş player who can turn 16.2 shots a game into clear ones against a compact block.

Eren Tozlu

Erzurumspor FK · ST

Alone up front and carrying the whole attack.

both Erzurumspor league goals

Nihad Mujakić

Erzurumspor FK · CB

Central to a five that has conceded eight in four league matches; he has to win the first ball on every cross.

Part three

The call

Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.

09How it could go

Three ways this match goes

Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first

45%chanceMost likely
Beşiktaş break the block
The hosts take the lead before the interval, as they have in all five of their last five home matches, and add a second after the hour when Erzurumspor's five stops stepping out. Two clear goals, a clean sheet, and the corner count past eight.
28%chance
Erzurumspor make it stick
Özbalta's side reach the hour level, as they did at Amed and at Gençlerbirliği, Tozlu converts the one transition they get, and Beşiktaş's changed XI cannot answer. A draw, or the away win the price says happens once in eleven.
27%chance
A grind, one goal decides it
A rotated front line takes an hour to find a way through, the way the 1-0 against Eyüpspor went. Beşiktaş win it late from a set piece or a substitute. Under 3.5 and both teams to score No still land; the two-goal margin does not.

The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.

Erzurumspor have scored twice in four matches and Beşiktaş have conceded four in as many. The block holds for a while, and then it does not.

DeepPreviews analysis desk

10The verdict

Beşiktaş by two, once the block cracks

We make it Beşiktaş 72, the draw 18, Erzurumspor 10 - within a point or two of the market's 73, 17 and 9, and nothing in the crisis, coach or player checks is big enough to move it further. Neither club is in crisis: Beşiktaş have won two in a row, Erzurumspor are unbeaten in two. Italiano has 8 wins from his first 10 competitive matches and five straight home wins at 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, with a half-time lead in every one of them. Erzurumspor bring 0.50 goals a game from four league matches and concede 2.00 on 1.64 xG against. What stops us going higher is the week: rotation for Marseille on 17 September, Rıdvan Yılmaz out with a thigh strain, and Vlahović waiting on a disciplinary ruling that could remove four league goals from the line. A 5-4-1 that has been level at half-time in two of four also argues for patience rather than a rout. Beşiktaş 2-0.

Beşiktaş 2-0 Erzurumspor FK

What would change our mind

If Vlahović is suspended and Oh starts alone, the -1.5 lean is the first one to drop.
If Trossard is rested for İlhan Fakılı, trim the corners lean as well.
If Erzurumspor are still level past the hour, the safer call survives but the margin will not.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK?: Beşiktaş, clearly. They are second with 9 points from four matches (W3 D0 L1) and have won their last five home competitive matches, scoring 2.40 and conceding 0.40 a game. Erzurumspor are 15th with 4 points from four, two scored and eight conceded. The Elo scale reads 1748 to 1578. We make it Beşiktaş 72%, draw 18%, Erzurumspor 10%.
What is the predicted score for Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK?: Beşiktaş 2-0. Erzurumspor average 0.50 goals a game in the league on 0.72 xG and drop into a 5-4-1, so the hosts should need patience rather than volume. Beşiktaş have kept four clean sheets in their last five home matches and led at half-time in all five.
Is Dušan Vlahović playing against Erzurumspor?: It was unresolved at the time of writing. Vlahović, who has four league goals this season, was referred to the disciplinary board after the derby at Fenerbahçe, with a two-to-five-match suspension sought, and Beşiktaş said they would appeal any ruling. Probable-XI reports on Wednesday had Hyeon-gyu Oh leading the line instead.
Who is missing for Beşiktaş and Erzurumspor FK?: Rıdvan Yılmaz is out for Beşiktaş with a left thigh strain diagnosed on 8 September, roughly a two-week absence, with Kassoum Ouattara expected at left-back. Vlahović is a doubt pending a disciplinary ruling. Erzurumspor reported a full squad in training, with Elisha Owusu the only fitness question.
What is the head-to-head record?: Six competitive meetings. Beşiktaş won three, Erzurumspor two - both of those in a January 2020 cup tie - and one finished level. The sides have not met since April 2021, when Beşiktaş won 4-2 in Erzurum, so squads and coaching staff have turned over completely since.

Written 10 Sept 2026, 06:50 · Updated 10 Sept 2026, 06:50 UTC.

AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.