Bayern München vs Bodo/Glimt

Bayern start the league phase with three wins and a draw from four competitive matches this season (W3 D1), 11 goals scored and three conceded. The draw was Saturday's 0-0 at Schalke, the only one of the four in which they did not score, and it came with Harry Kane and Michael Olise held back after international duty. Vincent Kompany still had 15 shots and 11 corners to Schalke's four and none. The finishing went missing, not the control.

Bodo/Glimt arrive on a 12-match unbeaten competitive run this season (W11 D1), 33 scored and 10 conceded, six wins in a row. They are in the league phase because they came through two qualifying ties, taking 12 goals from four Champions League matches against Union St. Gilloise and NEC Nijmegen. They have scored in every single competitive match this season. Kjetil Knutsen's side reached the round of 16 last season, so this is not a group of tourists.

The gap is still enormous. Bayern's Elo sits at 2029 against 1917, and the market has the home win at 1.13 with the away side at 17.17. Bodo/Glimt also travel with the longer treatment list. The interesting questions here are the margin, the corner count and whether the Norwegians extend a scoring run that has held for twelve matches.

Both sides score. That is the cleanest thing on the page. Bayern have put up 2.75 goals per match across four competitive matches this season and 18.8 shots per match; Bodo/Glimt have matched the goals rate at 2.75 per match across twelve, and have not been shut out once. Ten of those twelve went over 2.5 goals.

The defensive numbers point the other way for the visitors when the level rises. Across their four Champions League matches this season Bodo/Glimt conceded 1.50 per match, double their competitive-season rate of 0.83, and both teams scored in three of those four. Against a side that took 21 shots and won 5-1 at home to Stuttgart with 4.06 xG, that is the tell: Bayern get to three or four, and Bodo/Glimt's scoring run has been too durable to price at 2.23 the other way.

The half is worth a look too. Bayern led at the break in three of four competitive matches this season; Bodo/Glimt led at the break in nine of twelve. Their weighted first-half scoring rates add to 2.45 goals per match before the fixture's mismatch is applied.

No referee has been appointed yet, so this is argued from the teams alone. Neither collects cards. Bayern have been shown 1.0 per match across four competitive matches this season, Bodo/Glimt 0.5 across the eleven with card data. Both foul at a low rate on weighted season averages, 8.98 and 8.89 per match.

The opposition is where the cards come from. Bodo/Glimt's opponents have averaged 2.4 per match this season, and in their three Champions League matches with card data that rose to 3.3 against, for 4.3 cards in the match. Chasing a Bayern side that keeps 67% of the ball on weighted season averages is exactly the profile that produces tactical fouls. Two and a half is a low bar for a match with this shape; four and a half is a stretch when the home side has drawn 2.2 cards per match into their own games.

This is the most one-sided column on the page. Bayern have won 8.5 corners per match this season and conceded 2.2, for 10.8 in the match and three of four over 9.5. They took 11 at Schalke and gave up none, and nine against Stuttgart.

Bodo/Glimt are not a low-corner team either: 7.5 for and 3.1 against across eleven competitive matches, 10.6 per match, seven of eleven over 9.5. Their Champions League matches ran lower at 8.7 per match, but that sample includes an away tie at NEC Nijmegen where they had 31% of the ball and still took two. With Bayern camped in the final third and Bodo/Glimt defending deep, the corner count should sit above the total both sides carry into it.