Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Two teams, one point each from two matches, fifteenth and fourteenth. That is where the resemblance stops. Union Berlin have scored seven goals in three competitive matches and conceded nine. They led Eintracht Frankfurt at home, were behind by half-time, and drew 3-3. Then they went to Leverkusen and were taken apart 4-0, managing five shots to twenty-one and not one of them on target. Mauro Lustrinelli's side create and concede in roughly equal, alarming quantities.

Schalke's problem is narrower and, in its way, worse. They have played two Bundesliga matches and scored nothing at all. Miron Muslić took them to Augsburg and lost 0-3 with Ron Schallenberg sent off, then set up a back five at home to Bayern Munich, gave the ball away for eighty-three minutes of it, and came out with a goalless draw and a goalkeeper who could barely be beaten. Loris Karius has been the story of their season so far. Moussa Sylla has had 7.5 shots per league match to work with against the 19.5 his own goal faces.

Both had the midweek off, so both arrive on six days' rest with no European or cup football in between. There is a sub-plot on the Schalke left: Robin Gosens returns to the club he left, and he will spend the evening on the flank where Union like to break. The two sides have not met since February 2023.

Start with the two numbers that decide this match. Union have conceded 3.00 goals per game in their three competitive matches and kept no clean sheet. Schalke have scored 1.67 per game across theirs, but nothing at all in the two that were Bundesliga matches. One of those records is going to break.

Union's is the more fragile. Their defensive record is not one bad afternoon; it is a 3-3, a 4-2 cup win in which they still shipped two, and a 4-0. Schalke's blank is two fixtures, away at the league leaders and at home to Bayern, and it came with a red card in the first and a deliberate back five in the second. Against Union's back four they will see the ball far more than the 17% they had against Bayern, and they scored five in the cup at Hallescher FC when allowed to play.

The league backdrop pushes the same way. The 18 Bundesliga matches played this season have averaged 3.94 goals, with 78% going over 2.5, and Union's three competitive games have gone over 2.5 every time. Union should score: seven goals in three, and Emmanuel Latte Lath scoring inside three minutes against Frankfurt. The question is whether Schalke join in, and the honest answer is that a defence with no clean sheets is more likely to concede than a promoted attack is to stay silent for a third straight league game.

Schalke have already had a man sent off this season. Ron Schallenberg went at Augsburg on matchday one and the ban still covers this fixture, which tells you something about how a promoted side is handling top-flight tempo.

The counted numbers back it. Union's three competitive matches have averaged 4.7 cards and every one of them cleared 3.5. Schalke's have averaged 4.0 with two of three over 3.5. The Bundesliga average this season is 3.72 cards per match, so both teams are running hot, and Union in particular collect them: Felix Uduokhai was booked inside four minutes at Leverkusen and Zeno van den Bosch followed two minutes into the second half.

Add the shape of the fixture. Two mid-table sides on one point, a Friday night crowd, a Schalke side that will defend deep and foul rather than let Latte Lath and Marin Ljubičić run, and Union chasing a game they cannot afford to lose at home. No referee has been announced, so this rests on the teams rather than the whistle.

Corners are the one place where Schalke's method produces a big number without them touching the ball. They have conceded 8.3 corners per game across their three competitive matches and won only 4.0. In the two Bundesliga games alone the split is brutal: 1.5 won, 11.0 conceded. Defending in a low block against Augsburg and Bayern does that.

Union's games are busy at both ends. They have won 5.0 corners per game and conceded 6.7, for 11.7 corners per match in total. Schalke's matches have produced 12.3. Both sit above the Bundesliga's 11.39 corners per match this season, and 67% of league matches have cleared 9.5.

The pattern for Friday follows from the shape. If Schalke defend deep and Union push their full-backs high, the corner count climbs from one end. If Schalke actually come out and play, as they did in the cup at Hallescher FC where they won nine, it climbs from both.