vs
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi
Sun 13 Sept · 18:30Elindus Arena, Waregem
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Zulte WaregemHomeCharleroiAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Zulte Waregem to win, 2-1. Unbeaten in five league matches (W3 D2 L0), six goals scored and one conceded in two home games.
- The one stat
- Charleroi have scored in all five league matches this season: 11 goals at 2.20 a game, from 19.4 shots per match.
- The risk
- Charleroi out-shoot opponents 19.4 to 11.0 a league game. Volume like that usually ends a clean-sheet run.
- The calls
- Safer: Zulte Waregem or draw at 1.46. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 1.74. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Fifth plays fourth and a single point separates them. Zulte Waregem have 11 points from five matches (W3 D2 L0), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Charleroi have 12 from five (W4 D0 L1): four straight wins, then a 2-3 home defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise on 5 September. Neither club is in trouble, and any Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi prediction starts there rather than with a crisis: one defeat between the two of them in ten matches.
Michael Beale has been the Zulte Waregem coach since 19 May 2026, a two-year deal and his first job outside Britain and Saudi Arabia. The record since is three wins and two draws, and he is not pretending the football has arrived: after winning 2-0 at ten-man Kortrijk with two goals in stoppage time, he said his side had been the weaker team with the ball and would have to play considerably better against Charleroi. Mario Kohnen took over at Charleroi on 7 April 2026 as interim and was confirmed permanently on 17 June. He brought more realism and more direct patterns, and it has produced four wins in five.
Charleroi's summer ended with Parfait Guiagon leaving for Saudi Arabia on 23 August after going absent under a medical certificate; they have taken nine points from the four matches since he stopped playing, so the loss has not shown. Antoine Bernier, hurt in the foot at Kortrijk on 29 August and out for several weeks, is the only confirmed absentee. Kohnen said on Saturday that the rest of the squad is available. Zulte Waregem report nobody missing.
The markets
Double chance
Zulte Waregem or draw
Zulte Waregem have not lost a Jupiler Pro League match this season (W3 D2) and concede 0.60 a game with three clean sheets; we make home-or-draw 67% against the market's 65%, and their two home matches produced six goals scored and one against.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Total goals
Over 2.5
Three of five league matches have gone over 2.5 for each side, Charleroi have scored in all five at 2.20 a game off 19.4 shots and the division averages 3.08; we make it 58% against the market's 54%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
Zulte WaregemPrice 2.53
3/5Six goals scored and one conceded in two home league matches, and Charleroi arrive without Bernier and a point ahead rather than a class above; we make Zulte Waregem 40% against the market's 37%.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsProbable XIs
Asian handicap
Zulte Waregem 0Price 1.87
3/5The same call with the draw taken out: Zulte Waregem won the last two meetings 2-1 and 1-0, and our 40% to 33% split makes them 55% once the draw is removed, against the 1.87 price.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.22
4/5Only two of these ten league matches have finished under two goals, and both attacks are scoring at two a game or better; we make it 82% against the market's 77%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Cards
Total cards
Under 3.5Price 2.00
2/5Charleroi's league matches average 2.0 cards and Zulte Waregem's 4.0, which is 3.0 between them against a league average of 3.04, with only three of the ten going over 3.5.
EvidenceDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 18:30 Waregem time
- Sunday
- Referee
- Bert Verbeke
- Wim Smet on video review
- Weather
- 20 °C, light drizzle
- 20% chance of rain, wind 14 km/h
- Rest
- 7 days vs 8
- Neither side played midweek
- Venue
- Elindus Arena, Waregem
- Zulte Waregem have won both home league matches
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, who shoots and who concedes, what the discipline numbers say, and the figures that decide the call.
01Goals
The two defences are the story, and they are not the same kind of good. Zulte Waregem have conceded three goals in five Jupiler Pro League matches, 0.60 a game, with three clean sheets; at home it is one goal in two matches. Charleroi have conceded five in five, 1.00 a game, but only one across their two away wins. The attacks are why this still goes over the line: Charleroi have scored in every league match, 11 goals at 2.20 a game off 19.4 shots, and Zulte Waregem have 10 at 2.00, six of them in those two home matches.
The xG says Charleroi create more and give up less: 1.88 for and 0.77 against per league match, against 1.36 and 0.98 for the hosts. Zulte Waregem are beating their xG by 0.64 goals a game. That is a finishing run rather than a level, and it is the reason the market has them at 2.53 instead of shorter. Three of five matches have gone over 2.5 goals for each side, and the division runs at 3.08 goals a match.
Charleroi create more (1.88 xG a game to 1.36) but Zulte Waregem concede less: 0.60 a game and three clean sheets in five league matches.
Sample: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27, 5 matches each; splits from 2 home and 2 away games
| Metric | Zulte WaregemHome | CharleroiAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 2.03.0 at home | 2.22.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.60.5 at home | 1.00.5 away |
| xG per game | 1.36 | 1.88 |
| xG conceded per game | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Shots per game | 13.0 | 19.4 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Charleroi cleared 1.20 xG in each of their four measured league matches; Zulte Waregem produced 0.51 against Genk and won it 2-1.
Sample: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27: 5 matches for Zulte Waregem, 4 with xG for Charleroi
Zulte WaregemHome
avg xG 1.36 · avg xGA 0.98
2–1W
Genk (H)
0–0D
Union St. Gilloise (A)
4–0W
SK Beveren (H)
2–2D
KVC Westerlo (A)
0–2W
Kortrijk (A)
CharleroiAway
avg xG 1.88 · avg xGA 0.77
3–1W
OH Leuven (H)
0–1W
Lommel United (A)
2–0W
KV Mechelen (H)
1–3W
Kortrijk (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Charleroi lead 4-2 with two draws in eight competitive meetings at 3.00 goals each, but Zulte Waregem have won the last two: 2-1 away and 1-0 at home.
2
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
22 Mar 2026·Jupiler Pro League
Zulte Waregem1–0Charleroi20 Sept 2025·Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi1–2Zulte Waregem8 Apr 2023·Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi3–2Zulte Waregem21 Aug 2022·Jupiler Pro League
Zulte Waregem1–3Charleroi10 Apr 2022·Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi3–0Zulte Waregem22 Aug 2021·Jupiler Pro League
Zulte Waregem2–2Charleroi7 Feb 2021·Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi1–1Zulte Waregem13 Sept 2020·Jupiler Pro League
Zulte Waregem0–2Charleroi
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Zulte Waregem or drawSafer
Price 1.464/5Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 1.743/5Match result
Zulte Waregem
Price 2.533/5Asian handicap
Zulte Waregem 0
Price 1.873/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.224/5
02Cards
Bert Verbeke has the whistle, with Wim Smet on video review. The two sides sit at opposite ends of the discipline range. Zulte Waregem's five league matches have produced 4.0 cards each, 1.2 to them and 2.8 to their opponents, and two of the five went over 3.5. Charleroi's have produced 2.0, with one of five over 3.5 and only 0.6 a game shown to their own players. The division averages 3.04 cards a match and clears 3.5 in 35% of them.
Split the two and you land on 3.0, right under the line the market prices at 3.5. Neither side fouls its way through a game and neither needs to here: both are comfortable in possession, both are playing for position rather than survival. This is a lean, not a call.
Charleroi's league matches average 2.0 cards and Zulte Waregem's 4.0; the pair average 3.0 between them against a league average of 3.04.
Sample: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27, 5 matches each
| Metric | Zulte WaregemHome | CharleroiAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to this team per game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 40% | 20% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Under 3.5
Price 2.002/5
03Corners
Charleroi win the corner count nearly everywhere they go: 6.2 a league game to 3.8 against, a surplus of 2.4. Zulte Waregem are the other way, 4.8 for and 5.4 against. That gap is the clearest single expression of who has the ball and who does not.
It does not move the total, though. Both sides' matches land within a corner of the division's 10.14 average, at 10.2 and 10.0, and three of five have cleared 9.5 for each. Two different routes to the same number, which is why corners stay in this chapter as analysis and nowhere near the board.
Charleroi are plus 2.4 corners a game and Zulte Waregem minus 0.6, yet both sides' matches average almost exactly the league's 10.14.
Sample: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27, 5 matches each
| Metric | Zulte WaregemHome | CharleroiAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 4.8 | 6.2 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 60% | 60% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 0.60
- Goals Zulte Waregem concede per league game
- Three clean sheets in five Jupiler Pro League matches, and one goal conceded across their two home wins.
- 19.4
- Charleroi shots per league game
- They out-shoot opponents 19.4 to 11.0 across five league matches. Volume like that usually finds a way through a clean-sheet run.
- 4 of 5
- Charleroi league games level at half-time
- They have led at the break only once this season. Whatever happens here is likely to happen after it.
Zulte Waregem's edge is the goals they do not concede; Charleroi's is the goals they manufacture out of volume. At 2.53 and 2.57 the market cannot separate them either. The tie-break is the ground: six goals scored and one conceded in two home matches, against a visiting side that has to come out and chase the moment it falls behind.
Part two
Who plays, and how
One confirmed absentee, two coaches who both changed how their side plays this summer, and the midfield battle that decides whether Charleroi's shot volume arrives.
05Team news
Charleroi miss only Antoine Bernier, hurt at Kortrijk on 29 August; Zulte Waregem report no absentees at all.
Zulte WaregemHome
No reported absences.
CharleroiAway
Antoine BernierLW
foot injury, out for several weeks
Goals
OutParfait GuiagonMF
transferred abroad in August
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Team news from Mario Kohnen's Saturday media session and the matchday previews. Bernier last played on 29 August; Charleroi have taken nine points from the four matches since Guiagon stopped playing.
06Expected XI
Beale's front three is the open question: Mbaye and Átrok both changed the Kortrijk match off the bench. Kohnen is set to name an unchanged XI.
Zulte WaregemHome
Michael Beale
CharleroiAway
Mario Kohnen
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Charleroi's eleven is the one that started against Union Saint-Gilloise on 5 September.
07Shape and plan
Volume against the box
Charleroi take 19.4 shots a league game and allow 11.0. Zulte Waregem allow 10.8 and block the middle: three clean sheets in five. The question is where those shots come from. Charleroi's 23 at Lommel produced 1.25 xG, about 0.05 a shot; their 24 against OH Leuven produced 3.15, about 0.13. Waregem's centre-backs win this if the first number is the one that shows up.
The second half decides it
Charleroi have been level at the break in four of their five league matches and ahead once. Zulte Waregem have been level in three, ahead once, behind once. Neither side settles anything early, and Waregem have scored twice in stoppage time already this season. Expect the game to still be open after the hour.
Aké and Lofolomo against the double pivot
Charleroi's shape funnels everything through Boukamir and Khalifi, who set the tempo and feed Van Den Kerkhof and Pflücke down the right. Zulte Waregem's 4.8 corners a game say they do not sustain much pressure; their route is direct, into Ementa, and the second ball. Whoever wins the area in front of the back four sets the shot count.
08Three duels
Anosike Ementa
Zulte Waregem · ST
The reference point for everything Waregem do forward. He drops off the last defender to pull a centre-back out and let Mbaye and Átrok run the space behind.
4 assists in 5 league matches
Marley Aké
Zulte Waregem · CM
The one player in the home midfield who carries rather than recycles. If Charleroi's pivot cannot get near him, Waregem's 13.0 shots a game will look a lot healthier.
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Charleroi · RB
Charleroi's most productive full-back, overlapping Pflücke and getting to the byline. He is the reason they win 6.2 corners a game.
2 goals this season
Mohamed Koné
Charleroi · GK
His deflection gifted Union Saint-Gilloise the opening goal on 5 September. Waregem's plan is direct and early, and they will test him from range before he settles.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 40%chanceMost likely
Waregem land the first punch
Ementa gets in behind against a back four missing its left-sided cover, Waregem lead by the hour and Charleroi have to come out. That opens the game rather than closing it: Scheidler pulls one back off the volume Charleroi always generate, and the home side see it out at 2-1.
- 33%chance
The shot count finally tells
Charleroi keep the ball, reach 20 shots again and this time three of them are good ones. Bostyn cannot repeat five matches of 0.60 goals conceded forever, and Waregem's 1.36 xG a game is not enough to chase a deficit. Charleroi win by a goal or two.
- 27%chance
Level and it stays level
Charleroi have been level at half-time in four of five; Waregem in three of five. Neither back four gives anything cheap, the drizzle slows the surface and the game is still 1-1 with ten to go. Both sides take the point and the table barely moves.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Charleroi shoot more than almost anyone in this division. Zulte Waregem have conceded one goal in two matches at home. One of those numbers breaks tonight, and the ground says it is Charleroi's.
10The verdict
Zulte Waregem edge a three-goal night
Neither side is priced under 2.00, so the call goes to the market's marginal favourite and the ground breaks the tie: Zulte Waregem have six goals and one conceded in two home league matches, while Charleroi travel without Antoine Bernier and after selling Parfait Guiagon in August. We make it Zulte Waregem 40%, the draw 27% and Charleroi 33%, within three points of the market's 37, 28 and 36, so there is no argument to name there. The goals are where we part company. Charleroi have scored in all five league matches at 2.20 a game off 19.4 shots, Zulte Waregem score 2.00 while beating their xG by 0.64, and three of five matches have gone over 2.5 for both sides: we make over 2.5 goals 58% against the market's 54%. That is why the riskier call is a goals line rather than a handicap. At 2-1 the draw is what beats a half-goal line, and the safer call takes the draw in rather than pretending it is not there.
What would change our mind
- If Charleroi lead at half-time, the goals line is fine but the result call is not: they have been ahead at the break once in five.
- If the drizzle turns to steady rain, the surface slows and the total suffers before the result does: over 2.5 goals is the call at risk.
- If Ementa does not start, Zulte Waregem lose their four-assist link man and the home win drops back to the double chance.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- Nobody, really. Zulte Waregem are 2.53 and Charleroi 2.57, with the draw at 3.36, so the market splits them almost down the middle. Our own numbers make it Zulte Waregem 40%, the draw 27% and Charleroi 33%: the hosts are unbeaten in five Jupiler Pro League matches (W3 D2) and have won both home games, scoring six and conceding one.
- What is the predicted score for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- Zulte Waregem 2-1. Charleroi have scored in all five of their league matches this season, 11 goals at 2.20 a game from 19.4 shots, so a clean sheet is a lot to ask; Zulte Waregem score 2.00 a game and 3.00 at home across their two matches there. Three of five matches have gone over 2.5 goals for each side.
- Is Antoine Bernier playing for Charleroi?
- No. Bernier hurt his foot at Kortrijk on 29 August and was ruled out for several weeks; he is the only injury absentee Mario Kohnen named before this match. Charleroi also completed the sale of Parfait Guiagon in August, though they have taken nine points from the four matches since he stopped playing.
- What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
- Charleroi lead 4-2 with two draws in the last eight competitive meetings, at 3.00 goals a game, with both teams scoring in five of eight. The recent run belongs to Zulte Waregem, though: they won 2-1 at Charleroi in September 2025 and 1-0 at home in March 2026.
- What are the calls for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- The safer call is Zulte Waregem or draw at 1.46: they have not lost a league match this season and concede 0.60 a game. The riskier call is over 2.5 goals at 1.74, with Charleroi scoring in every league match and the division averaging 3.08 goals. Four further leans sit on the board.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 01:20 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 01:20 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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