vs
Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Sun 13 Sept · 14:00Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
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In short
In short
- The call
- Under 2.5 goals. Celta Vigo and Malaga have scored three times between them in nine La Liga matches this season.
- The one stat
- Malaga have one goal in four La Liga matches and none in two away trips, where they shipped six.
- The risk
- Celta Vigo had 70% of the ball and 16 shots at Getafe. One clinical afternoon at home reopens every goals line.
- The calls
- Safer: under 2.5 goals at 1.77. Riskier: the draw at 3.59. Five more leans on the board.
The situation
Celta Vigo have three points from five La Liga matches (W0 D3 L2) and two goals to show for them. Balaidos has given them nothing at all: two home matches, two defeats, one scored and four conceded, after a summer in which a fungus outbreak on the pitch forced their opening fixture to be rescheduled.
Monday night at Getafe was the shape of their season in ninety minutes - 70% of the ball, sixteen shots, three on target, and a 1-1 draw rescued by Carl Starfelt's header from a Hugo Gonzalez corner.
Malaga are back in the top flight for the first time since 2018, promoted in June after eight years away. The adjustment has been brutal at the sharp end: one goal in four La Liga matches, seven conceded, and nothing on the road, where Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid won 2-0 and 4-0. The goal belongs to Chupe. Juan Funes did keep a first clean sheet against Levante on Sunday.
So two winless sides, sixteenth against eighteenth, meet at 14:00 under a clear sky with the temperature forecast around 31 degrees. Neither has scored more than once in a league match this season. The question is not who attacks better; it is who blinks first.
The markets
Total goals
Under 2.5
Three goals between them in nine La Liga matches, and over 2.5 has landed once in Celta Vigo's five and once in Malaga's four.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Match result
Draw
Both are winless: Celta Vigo have drawn three of five and Malaga two of four, and neither has scored more than once in a league match.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Result & goals
Both teams to score
NoPrice 1.80
3/5Celta Vigo failed to score in three of five league matches, Malaga in three of four and in both away trips, so six of nine were one-way.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
1st-half goals
Under 1.5Price 1.38
3/5Celta Vigo's five league matches produced 0.80 first-half goals each and Malaga went in level at the break in three of four.
EvidenceGoals table
Double chance
Draw or MalagaPrice 2.06
3/5Celta Vigo have taken no points from two home matches and created 0.51 xG a game, which is not a 1.74 favourite's profile.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5
3/5Celta Vigo's league matches average 4.2 cards and Malaga's 4.5, and the line has cleared in three of five and three of four.
EvidenceDiscipline
Corners
Total corners
Over 8.5Price 1.76
3/5Malaga's league matches average 10.8 corners and they concede 5.8 a game against a Celta Vigo side that will hold the ball.
EvidenceCorners
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 14:00 Vigo time
- Sunday
- Venue
- Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
- Weather
- Clear, around 31 °C
- No rain forecast, light wind
- Rest
- 5 days vs 6
- Celta Vigo played Monday night, Malaga on Sunday
- Table
- 16th vs 18th
- Celta Vigo 3 points from 5, Malaga 2 from 4
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals are not, what the discipline and corner lines say, and the numbers behind a meeting of two sides who cannot score.
01Goals
Start with the total. Celta Vigo have scored 0.40 goals per La Liga match this season across five games and failed to score in three of them. Malaga have scored 0.25 per match across four and failed to score in three. That is three goals between two teams in nine league matches, against a league running at 3.00 goals a game.
The over-2.5 line has landed once in Celta Vigo's five league matches and once in Malaga's four; the league average is 56%. Under 2.5 at 1.77 is the call we would defend hardest. Both teams to score is the same argument from the other side: it has happened in two of Celta Vigo's five and one of Malaga's four, six of nine without it, and Malaga are yet to score away from La Rosaleda.
The first half is where this is likeliest to stay quiet. Celta Vigo's five league matches have produced 0.80 first-half goals each, Malaga's four 1.25, and Malaga have gone in level at the break in three of four. Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.38 is short but sound.
Three goals between them in nine league matches: Celta Vigo 0.40 a game, Malaga 0.25, and each failed to score in three.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27: Celta Vigo 5 matches, Malaga 4; splits are their 2 home and 2 away games
| Metric | Celta VigoHome | MalagaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 0.40.5 at home | 0.250.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.02.0 at home | 1.753.0 away |
| Failed to score | 60% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 25% |
| First-half goals per match | 0.8 | 1.25 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Malaga have created more: 1.07 xG a game across four league matches against 0.51 for Celta Vigo across three.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27, matches with expected-goals data: Celta Vigo 3, Malaga 4
Celta VigoHome
avg xG 0.51 · avg xGA 2.01
0–0D
Valencia (A)
1–2L
Osasuna (H)
0–2L
Athletic Club (H)
MalagaAway
avg xG 1.07 · avg xGA 1.37
2–0L
Atletico Madrid (A)
1–1D
Deportivo La Coruna (H)
4–0L
Real Madrid (A)
0–0D
Levante (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Source: Match-by-match expected goals from this season's La Liga fixtures
Eight competitive meetings, none since Malaga went down in 2018: Malaga won four, Celta Vigo three, 1.88 goals a meeting and both sides scored in only two.
3
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
4
Malaga
18 Mar 2018·La Liga
Celta Vigo0–0Malaga29 Oct 2017·La Liga
Malaga2–1Celta Vigo7 May 2017·La Liga
Malaga3–0Celta Vigo8 Jan 2017·La Liga
Celta Vigo3–1Malaga8 May 2016·La Liga
Celta Vigo1–0Malaga2 Jan 2016·La Liga
Malaga2–0Celta Vigo29 Apr 2015·La Liga
Celta Vigo1–0Malaga13 Dec 2014·La Liga
Malaga1–0Celta Vigo
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total goals
Under 2.5Safer
Price 1.774/5Both teams to score
No
Price 1.803/51st-half goals
Under 1.5
Price 1.383/5Match result
DrawRiskier
Price 3.592/5Double chance
Draw or Malaga
Price 2.063/5
02Cards
No referee has been appointed, so the argument rests on the two teams. Celta Vigo's five La Liga matches have averaged 4.2 cards, Malaga's four 4.5, against a league average of 4.80. Over 3.5 cards has landed in three of Celta Vigo's five and three of Malaga's four.
The shape of the game supports it. Malaga will defend deep and foul in transition, and Celta Vigo already have a red card on the board this season - Marcos Alonso was sent off against Osasuna. A frustrated favourite chasing a goal against a promoted side protecting a point is the standard route to a busy card count.
Cards run near the league's 4.80 a match: 4.2 in Celta Vigo's five league games, 4.5 in Malaga's four.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27: Celta Vigo 5 matches, Malaga 4; league average 4.80 cards
| Metric | Celta VigoHome | MalagaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to the team per match | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Cards shown to opponents per match | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Cards in their matches | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Matches with over 3.5 cards | 60% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
3/5
03Corners
Celta Vigo's league matches are quiet for corners - 8.8 a game across five, with only 3.8 of them their own. Malaga's are busier: 10.8 across four, 5.0 won and 5.8 conceded. Split the difference and the fair number lands just under ten, against a league average of 9.95.
The tilt is towards more rather than fewer. Celta Vigo will have the ball, Malaga concede the most corners of the four lines here, and Celta Vigo's route to goal has been the set piece: their equaliser at Getafe came from a corner. Over 8.5 at 1.76 gives a goal of margin on that estimate; the 9.5 line is too close to call.
Malaga's league matches average 10.8 corners to Celta Vigo's 8.8, and Malaga concede 5.8 a game - the highest of the four lines.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27: Celta Vigo 5 matches, Malaga 4; league average 9.95 corners
| Metric | Celta VigoHome | MalagaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per match | 3.8 | 5.0 |
| Corners conceded per match | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| Corners in their matches | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| Matches with over 9.5 corners | 40% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Over 8.5
Price 1.763/5
04The numbers that matter
- 3
- league goals between the two sides this season
- Celta Vigo have scored two in five La Liga matches, Malaga one in four. Every goals line starts from that.
- 0.51
- Celta Vigo expected goals per league match
- Across the three league matches with expected-goals data they created 0.51 and conceded 2.01 - the profile of a side being outplayed.
- 0
- points Celta Vigo have taken at Balaidos
- Two home matches, two defeats, one scored and four conceded. Balaidos has not been the fortress the 1.74 price assumes.
- 6
- goals Malaga have conceded in two away trips
- Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid put them away without reply. Vigo is a far gentler test than either.
The two attacking profiles point in opposite directions. Malaga have created more per match than Celta Vigo this season and finished almost none of it; Celta Vigo have finished a little of very little. One of those usually corrects. Neither correction needs to be large for a 1-0 to be the outcome.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Both coaches are still settling on a first-choice eleven. Who is missing, who starts, and the matchups that decide a tight afternoon.
05Team news
Malaga are without five, including Julen Lobete for the season; Celta Vigo miss only Aleix Febas from their first-choice midfield.
Celta VigoHome
Aleix FebasMF
rib injury sustained against Athletic Club
GoalsResult
OutStefan BajceticMF
building fitness with the reserve side
Result
Out
MalagaAway
Julen LobeteFW
cruciate ligament rupture, out for the season
Goals
OutFernando CaleroDF
rib fracture
GoalsResult
DoubtfulMoussa DiarraDF
soleus problem
Result
DoubtfulAdrián NiñoFW
soleus injury
Goals
DoubtfulDiego MurilloDF
knee injury
Result
OutAarón OchoaMF
meniscus injury, no return date
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Compiled from club channels and Spanish squad-news reports published between 5 and 8 September. Borja Iglesias returned to the Celta Vigo bench at Getafe after a soleus tear.
06Expected XI
Claudio Giraldez has settled on a back five with Iago Aspas high; Juan Funes went to a flat four in midfield to keep his first clean sheet.
Celta VigoHome
Claudio Giráldez
MalagaAway
Juan Funes
Both elevens follow each side's last confirmed line-up - Celta Vigo at Getafe on 7 September, Malaga against Levante on 6 September. Funes has rotated between matches, with Carlos Puga and Izan Merino the likeliest changes.
07Shape and plan
Possession without a point
Celta Vigo had 70% of the ball at Getafe and 16 shots for three on target. Against a Malaga side that has just drawn 0-0 at home in a flat block, territory is guaranteed and clear sight of goal is not. The question is whether Giraldez trusts Aspas and Duran to find the half-yard or goes wider and earlier.
Set pieces are the route
Celta Vigo have scored twice in five league matches and the more recent one came from a Hugo Gonzalez corner headed in by Carl Starfelt. With Marcos Alonso, Starfelt and Lago in the box, the dead ball is their most reliable weapon, and Malaga concede 5.8 corners a match.
Chupe on his own
Malaga's only league goal this season is Chupe's, and away from La Rosaleda they have not scored at all in two attempts. With Lobete out for the season and Nino a doubt, Funes has no obvious alternative if the 22-year-old is starved of service.
The 14:00 heat
A clear sky and around 31 degrees at kick-off favours the side happy to keep the ball still and let the game slow down. That is Malaga, playing for a point, rather than a Celta Vigo team that needs tempo to break a low block.
08Three duels
Iago Aspas
Celta Vigo · FW
Still the reference point in the final third and the man Malaga's centre-backs must track between the lines rather than in behind.
Carl Starfelt
Celta Vigo · CB
As dangerous at the other end as in his own box; his header at Getafe is the reason Celta Vigo have two goals rather than one.
Scored Celta Vigo's equaliser at Getafe from a corner
Chupe
Malaga · FW
Carries the whole attack alone against three centre-backs, and has to make one chance count.
Malaga's only La Liga goal this season
David Larrubia
Malaga · MF
Malaga's outlet on the counter and the player most likely to turn a Celta Vigo corner into the one moment that decides it.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 40%chanceMost likely
Celta Vigo grind one out
Celta Vigo take the ball and Malaga sit. The breakthrough arrives from a set piece rather than open play, somewhere after the hour, and Malaga cannot muster the reply they have not managed all season on the road. 1-0 or 2-0, under 2.5 goals, no both teams to score.
- 35%chance
Nobody scores
The pattern of the past fortnight repeats: Celta Vigo dominate the ball and finish nothing, Malaga defend as they did against Levante. A third straight draw for the home side, a second clean sheet in a row for Funes, and the draw at 3.59 lands with a game that never opens up.
- 25%chance
Malaga take something better
Chupe gets the one clean look he has been waiting for, or a Celta Vigo error at the back gifts it. Malaga lead, drop deeper still and Celta Vigo need a late equaliser they have looked incapable of finding. Their first away point, or their first away win.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Nine league matches, three goals. Someone has to score first in Vigo, and neither of these teams looks in any hurry.
10The verdict
Low-scoring and tight: Celta Vigo edge it, or nobody does
Celta Vigo at 1.74 is a price for a home favourite, not for a side that has won none of five and taken nothing from two matches at Balaidos, and the expected-goals ledger is worse still - 0.51 created and 2.01 conceded across their three league matches with the data. Malaga are no better going forward, with one goal in four and none away, but Funes has just found a shape that kept Levante out. That points at one goal deciding it rather than a comfortable home win. Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 is the safer call, the draw at 3.59 the bolder one, and we would write down Celta Vigo 1-0.
What would change our mind
- If Fernando Calero is passed fit, Malaga's box gets taller and the under and the draw both look stronger.
- If Celta Vigo start Ferran Jutgla alongside Pablo Duran, the goals lines shorten and the draw call weakens.
- If the heat holds near 31 degrees, expect a slower game and fewer corners than the 8.5 line assumes.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Celta Vigo are favourites at 1.74, with the draw at 3.59 and Malaga at 4.77. The price sits awkwardly with the form: Celta Vigo have won none of their five La Liga matches (W0 D3 L2) and have taken no points from two home games, losing both while scoring once and conceding four.
- What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?
- Celta Vigo 1-0. Celta Vigo have scored twice in five La Liga matches and Malaga once in four, with Malaga still goalless in two away trips. A single goal, most likely from a set piece, should settle it, and under 2.5 goals is our safer call at 1.77.
- Is Chupe playing for Malaga?
- Chupe started Malaga's 0-0 draw with Levante on 6 September and is expected to lead the line again. He has scored Malaga's only La Liga goal this season. Julen Lobete is out for the season with a cruciate injury, while Fernando Calero, Moussa Diarra and Adrian Nino are doubts.
- What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Malaga?
- The sides have met eight times in competitive football, all in La Liga and none since Malaga's relegation in 2018: Malaga won four, Celta Vigo three, one draw. Those meetings averaged 1.88 goals, both teams scored in only two of the eight, and just three went over 2.5 goals. The last was a 0-0 at Balaidos on 18 March 2018.
- What is the team news for Celta Vigo?
- Celta Vigo miss two midfielders: Aleix Febas is out with a rib injury picked up against Athletic Club, and Stefan Bajcetic is building fitness with the reserve side. Borja Iglesias returned to the squad at Getafe on 7 September after a soleus tear. Claudio Giraldez named a 5-2-3 there, with 70% of the ball and 16 shots, and is expected to keep that back five.
Written 9 Sept 2026, 00:55 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 00:55 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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