vs
Excelsior vs Utrecht
Sun 13 Sept · 12:15Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
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ExcelsiorHomeUtrechtAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Excelsior to win, 3-1. We make them 50% against the market's 43%, with Utrecht winless in five and 18 goals conceded.
- The one stat
- Utrecht have conceded 18 goals in five Eredivisie matches, 3.60 a game, and have not kept a clean sheet.
- The risk
- Woudestein. Excelsior have taken 0.9 points per game from their last ten Eredivisie home matches (W2 D3 L5).
- The calls
- Safer: Excelsior to win or draw at 1.37. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 1.60. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Excelsior are fourth with 10 points from five matches (W3 D1 L1) and a goal difference of +7. Utrecht are fifteenth with two points from five (W0 D2 L3) and a goal difference of -9. The second line is worse than it reads: Utrecht have conceded 18 goals in those five Eredivisie matches, 3.60 a game, and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them.
Utrecht are in a crisis by any definition. Their home match with Go Ahead Eagles on 5 September was halted when supporters threw fireworks and cups onto the pitch at 0-3; the last 25 minutes were replayed behind closed doors the following Tuesday and finished 3-3. Protest banners had gone up earlier that week, senior players left in the summer against a reported 7.5 million euro deficit, and the board has said little since. Anthony Correia, appointed on 13 April 2026 from Telstar on a three-year deal, has been publicly backed by the club as a transition-year coach. No set of ideas survives a defence conceding at this rate.
Ruben den Uil has been in charge at Woudestein since 28 June 2024, took Excelsior up in 2025 and has them unbeaten in three (W2 D1). The caveat is the address. Excelsior have won two of their last ten Eredivisie matches at home (W2 D3 L5, 0.9 points per game), while taking seven points from three away matches this season with nine scored and two conceded. Both sides played on the Tuesday and come in on four days' rest.
The markets
Double chance
Excelsior or draw
Excelsior avoid defeat in 75% of our runs (50% win, 25% draw) against a side conceding 3.60 goals a game in five league matches and missing seven players; the market rates a Utrecht win at 32%.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsxG trend
Total goals
Over 2.5
All five of Excelsior's and all five of Utrecht's Eredivisie matches this season have cleared 2.5 goals, in a league running at 3.92 a match across 49 played. We make it 72%; the market says 59%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
ExcelsiorPrice 2.18
3/5We make Excelsior 50% to win against the market's 43%: 1.70 xG for and 1.23 against per league match to Utrecht's 1.35 and 2.10, and Utrecht have trailed at half-time in four of five.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Asian handicap
Excelsior 0Price 1.63
3/5The same 50% against the market's 43%, with the draw returned rather than lost — the one outcome Excelsior's 0.9 points per game from ten home league matches keeps alive.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.50
3/5Both teams have scored in all five of Utrecht's league matches and in three of Excelsior's five, and Utrecht have failed to score in none of the five. We make it 68% against the market's 62%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Cards
Total cards
Under 3.5Price 1.72
3/5Only one of Excelsior's five league matches and two of Utrecht's five have passed 3.5 cards, three of ten in all, against a market pricing the over at 46% and a league average of 2.92 cards.
EvidenceDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 12:15 Rotterdam time
- Sunday
- Referee
- S. van der Eijk
- Weather
- 19 °C, light drizzle
- 33% chance of rain, wind 11 km/h
- Rest
- 4 days vs 4
- both played on Tuesday
- Table
- 4th vs 15th
- 10 points from 5 played against 2 from 5
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals are the easy part of this match, and why Excelsior's home record is the only thing arguing for Utrecht.
01Goals
Start with the simplest fact on the board. All five of Utrecht's Eredivisie matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in all five; all five of Excelsior's have gone over 2.5 as well. The league agrees: 3.92 goals a match across 49 played, with 80% clearing 2.5. Nothing about this fixture argues for a quiet afternoon.
The result follows from the same numbers. Excelsior have scored 2.40 a game and conceded 1.00 in five league matches, with 1.70 xG for and 1.23 against. Utrecht have scored 1.80 and conceded 3.60, with 1.35 xG for and 2.10 against. The home side creates more and concedes a third as often, and Utrecht have trailed at half-time in four of their five. Any Excelsior vs Utrecht prediction that starts elsewhere is working around the table rather than from it.
The one honest counterweight is venue. Excelsior's two home matches this season produced a 2-1 win over Sparta Rotterdam and a 1-2 defeat by PSV, 1.50 goals for and 1.50 against, and their last ten Eredivisie home matches read W2 D3 L5. Utrecht's better league record is on the road: W4 D3 L3 in their last ten away Eredivisie matches. That is why the home win is priced at 2.18 rather than shorter, and it is why our safer call covers the draw.
Utrecht have conceded 3.60 goals a game in five Eredivisie matches; Excelsior have conceded 1.00. Both sides have gone over 2.5 in all five.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, last 5 matches each; splits from 2 Excelsior home and 2 Utrecht away matches
| Metric | ExcelsiorHome | UtrechtAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 2.41.5 at home | 1.82.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.01.5 at home | 3.62.5 away |
| xG created per game | 1.7 | 1.35 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.23 | 2.1 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Matches trailing at half-time (of 5) | 1 | 4 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Excelsior have out-created their opponent in four of five league matches. Utrecht's 0.30 xG against PSV's 3.04 is the low point of a 1-6 defeat.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27: Excelsior's 5 league matches, Utrecht's 4 with published xG
ExcelsiorHome
avg xG 1.70 · avg xGA 1.23
0–4W
Cambuur (A)
1–2L
PSV Eindhoven (H)
2–1W
Sparta Rotterdam (H)
0–3W
Willem II (A)
2–2D
NEC Nijmegen (A)
UtrechtAway
avg xG 1.35 · avg xGA 2.11
2–1L
Groningen (A)
1–4L
AZ Alkmaar (H)
3–3D
Sparta Rotterdam (A)
1–6L
PSV Eindhoven (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Source: Published Eredivisie match xG, 2026/27
Eight competitive meetings, four of them drawn: Utrecht won three, Excelsior one, at 3.00 goals per meeting with both teams scoring in four. Excelsior's 5-0 last April is the outlier, not the pattern.
1
Excelsior
4
Draws
3
Utrecht
26 Apr 2026·Eredivisie
Excelsior5–0Utrecht24 Aug 2025·Eredivisie
Utrecht4–1Excelsior27 Jan 2024·Eredivisie
Excelsior1–1Utrecht12 Nov 2023·Eredivisie
Utrecht2–2Excelsior25 Jan 2023·Eredivisie
Utrecht1–0Excelsior2 Oct 2022·Eredivisie
Excelsior0–1Utrecht23 Feb 2019·Eredivisie
Utrecht0–0Excelsior30 Nov 2018·Eredivisie
Excelsior3–3Utrecht
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Excelsior or drawSafer
Price 1.374/5Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 1.604/5Match result
Excelsior
Price 2.183/5Asian handicap
Excelsior 0
Price 1.633/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.503/5
02Cards
Utrecht collect cards at nearly twice Excelsior's rate: 2.6 a game to 1.4 across five Eredivisie matches each. That is what chasing games does, and Utrecht have chased every one of them.
The totals stay modest all the same. Excelsior's five league matches have averaged 2.2 cards in total, Utrecht's 3.4, against a league average of 2.92 across 49 matches. Only one of Excelsior's five and two of Utrecht's five have passed 3.5 cards, three of ten in all. Add the two sides' own rates and you get 4.0, but that is the high end of the range rather than the middle of it, and a match Excelsior lead early tends to calm rather than boil.
Utrecht show 2.6 cards a game to Excelsior's 1.4, yet only three of the ten league matches between them have passed 3.5 cards.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, 5 matches each with card data
| Metric | ExcelsiorHome | UtrechtAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Cards against their opponents per game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards (of 5) | 1 | 2 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Under 3.5
Price 1.723/5
03Corners
Corners are where Utrecht's problem shows without the scoreline attached. They have won 3.6 a game and conceded 7.4 across five Eredivisie matches, while facing 19.4 shots a game. Excelsior are level at 5.0 and 5.0 on 13.0 shots for and 13.6 against.
Utrecht's matches have averaged 11.0 corners and cleared 9.5 in four of five; Excelsior's have averaged 10.0 and cleared it in three of five, against a league average of 10.43. This is analysis rather than a call: the corner count in a match like this follows the scoreline instead of predicting it, and the board carries no corners line.
Utrecht concede 7.4 corners a game and face 19.4 shots across five Eredivisie matches; Excelsior are level at 5.0 for and 5.0 against.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, 5 matches each with corner and shot data
| Metric | ExcelsiorHome | UtrechtAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.0 | 7.4 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| Shots faced per game | 13.6 | 19.4 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 18
- goals Utrecht conceded in five league matches
- 3.60 a game, no clean sheet, and both teams have scored in every one of them.
- 5/5
- Excelsior league matches over 2.5 goals
- Utrecht match that 5/5, and the league runs at 3.92 goals a match across 49 played.
- 0.9
- Excelsior points per game at home, last 10
- The one figure arguing for Utrecht: W2 D3 L5 in their last ten Eredivisie matches at Woudestein.
- 89
- Elo points between the two sides
- Excelsior 1672 to Utrecht 1583, before home advantage is added to it.
Two of those pull against each other. Excelsior's home record is why this is priced at 2.18 rather than 1.70; Utrecht's defence is why we still take the home side. The tie-breaker is that Excelsior's three away wins this season came with nine scored and two conceded. The quality is real; the venue has simply not been where they have shown it yet.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Seven Utrecht players are unavailable, and one absence since 30 August lines up exactly with nine goals conceded in two matches.
05Team news
Utrecht are without seven. Vesterlund's absence since 30 August coincides with nine goals conceded in two matches; Excelsior have coped without Naujoks.
ExcelsiorHome
Noah Naujoks
out since mid-August, pushing for a return
Goals
Doubtful
UtrechtAway
Niklas VesterlundDF
groin, out since 30 August
GoalsResult
OutJoris van OvereemMF
injured since 19 August
Result
OutNoah OhioFW
knee surgery, long-term
Goals
OutMiliano JonathansFW
knee, out since March
Goals
OutVictor JensenMF
knee, out since January
Goals
OutAlonzo EngwandaDF
hamstring, due back in October
Goals
OutKevin ParedesMF
injured since 22 August
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Checked against the clubs' own channels and Dutch injury reporting on the Sunday morning.
06Expected XI
Den Uil's 4-3-3 is built around Garden; Correia answers with the back three that has conceded 18 goals in five league matches.
ExcelsiorHome
Ruben den Uil
UtrechtAway
Anthony Correia
Probable XIs from predicted-lineup reporting, ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right.
07Shape and plan
A front three against a back three
Utrecht have conceded 3.60 goals a game and faced 19.4 shots a game in five Eredivisie matches. Excelsior take 13.0 shots a game with 4.82 on target in the weighted season averages. Garden pinning Didden and Panagiotou, with Thorsteinsson and Silva Timas attacking the space outside the wide centre-backs, is the matchup that decides the afternoon.
The first half is Utrecht's problem
Utrecht have trailed at half-time in four of their five league matches and score 0.54 first-half goals a game in the weighted season averages, against Excelsior's 0.94. Excelsior have led at the break in three of five. A team that concedes first this reliably has to open up, and Utrecht's second-half goals-conceded rate of 1.39 a game is what happens next.
Woudestein is not a fortress
Excelsior have taken 0.9 points per game from their last ten Eredivisie home matches (W2 D3 L5) and their two home matches this season produced 1.50 goals for and 1.50 against. Utrecht's own better league record is away: W4 D3 L3 in their last ten on the road. This is the reason the home price sits above 2.00 and the reason our safer call covers the draw.
Drizzle and a noon start
The forecast is 19 °C with light drizzle, a 33% chance of rain and 11 km/h of wind. A slick surface suits the side already moving the ball fast and raises the error count for a defence that has trailed at half-time in four of five. It does not change the shape of the match; it slightly widens the range of scorelines.
08Three duels
David Garden
Excelsior · ST
Leads the line against a back three conceding 3.60 a game, and scored Excelsior's equaliser at NEC on Tuesday.
Scored in the 2-2 at NEC
Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior · CM
Excelsior's attacking reference point from midfield; the player Utrecht must pick up between the lines when the ball turns over.
1.70 xG for per league match, team figure over 5
Casper Widell
Excelsior · RB
Captained the side at NEC and provides the right-side width against a wing-back who has to defend first.
Captain in the 2-2 at NEC
Ángel Alarcón
Utrecht · LW
Utrecht's most dangerous carrier and the reason they still score 1.80 a game while conceding twice that.
1.80 goals per game, 5 league matches
De Wit
Utrecht · CM
Has the hardest job in the league: screening a back three that faces 19.4 shots a game.
19.4 shots faced per league match
Barkas
Utrecht · GK
Making 3.97 saves a game and still picking the ball out of the net 3.60 times.
3.97 saves per game, weighted season averages
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 50%chanceMost likely
Excelsior go ahead and it stays open
Excelsior press a back three missing Vesterlund and lead at the break, as they have in three of five. Utrecht get one back, having scored in all five of their league matches, but the second half belongs to the home side: Utrecht concede 1.39 after the break in the weighted season averages. Say 3-1.
- 25%chance
A high-scoring draw at the ground that keeps producing them
Excelsior's home record is the live objection: W2 D3 L5 in their last ten Eredivisie matches here, and four of the eight competitive meetings between these clubs were drawn. Utrecht's away xG this season is 2.09 a game across two matches. A 2-2 is genuinely available, which is why the safer call keeps the draw.
- 25%chance
Utrecht's week turns the other way
A siege reaction is real: Correia's side arrive with nothing to protect, the league has gone 47% to the away team across 49 matches, and Utrecht took W4 D3 L3 from their last ten away league matches. Excelsior's 0.51 xG against PSV shows they can be smothered here. This outcome beats every lean on the board.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Utrecht have conceded eighteen goals in five matches and their own supporters stopped the last one. Excelsior do not need to be at their best. They need to be first.
10The verdict
Excelsior by two, with goals at both ends
Utrecht are in a crisis: winless in five Eredivisie matches (W0 D2 L3) with 18 conceded at 3.60 a game and no clean sheet, a home match halted by their own supporters at 0-3 on 5 September, senior departures against a reported 7.5 million euro deficit, and seven players unavailable — Vesterlund's absence since 30 August coinciding with nine goals conceded in two matches. We make it Excelsior 50%, the draw 25%, Utrecht 25%, against market probabilities of 43%, 26% and 32%; the gap on the away side is their defence and their week, not their travelling record, and it is small enough that we have not stretched it. Den Uil's side are unbeaten in three with 1.70 xG for and 1.23 against per league match, against Utrecht's 1.35 and 2.10. The honest caveat is Woudestein, where Excelsior have taken 0.9 points per game from their last ten Eredivisie home matches — which is why the win itself is priced at 2.18, why the double chance at 1.37 is the call we trust most, and why the confidence here is a three rather than a four. Over 2.5 goals is the shape the evidence screams: all ten of these two sides' league matches this season have cleared it, in a league averaging 3.92 goals a match.
What would change our mind
- If Vesterlund or van Overeem is passed fit, Utrecht's shape steadies — shade the riskier call, not the safer one.
- If Garden is missing from the XI, Excelsior lose their reference point and the double chance becomes the only call worth holding.
- If the drizzle turns to steady rain and the first half goes goalless, the over 2.5 call is the one under pressure.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Excelsior. They are fourth with 10 points from five matches (W3 D1 L1) and a goal difference of +7, against a Utrecht side fifteenth on two points from five (W0 D2 L3) with a goal difference of -9. We make Excelsior 50% to win, the draw 25% and Utrecht 25%; the market prices the home win at 2.18, a 43% probability.
- What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Excelsior 3-1 Utrecht. Excelsior have scored 2.40 goals a game in five Eredivisie matches and conceded 1.00; Utrecht have scored 1.80 and conceded 3.60. Both teams have scored in all five of Utrecht's league matches this season, and all ten league matches between the two sides have gone over 2.5 goals.
- Which Utrecht players are out?
- Seven: Niklas Vesterlund (groin, out since 30 August), Joris van Overeem, Kevin Paredes, Noah Ohio (knee surgery), Miliano Jonathans (knee), Victor Jensen (knee) and Alonzo Engwanda (hamstring, due back in October). Utrecht have conceded nine goals in the two matches since Vesterlund's absence began. Excelsior await Noah Naujoks, out since mid-August.
- What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Utrecht?
- Eight competitive meetings: Utrecht won three, Excelsior one, four drawn, at 3.00 goals per meeting with both teams scoring in four of the eight. The most recent was Excelsior 5-0 Utrecht in April 2026 at Woudestein; before that Utrecht won 4-1 at home in August 2025.
- Why is Utrecht's season described as a crisis?
- They are winless in five Eredivisie matches (W0 D2 L3) with 18 conceded and no clean sheet, including a 1-6 home defeat by PSV. Their home match with Go Ahead Eagles on 5 September was halted when supporters threw fireworks and cups onto the pitch at 0-3, and the final 25 minutes were replayed behind closed doors on the Tuesday, finishing 3-3.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 01:15 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 01:15 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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