vs
Udinese vs Cagliari
Sat 19 Sept · 15:00Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine
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UdineseHomeCagliariAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Udinese to win a low-scoring Saturday afternoon in Udine. The goals lines read better than the result, and the draw is what beats us.
- The one stat
- Cagliari have 9 points from four Serie A matches on 1.03 xG created per game and 1.54 conceded. The table is ahead of the football.
- The risk
- Udinese are without Solet, Zaniolo and Piotrowski and were away at Inter on Monday night. Cagliari have won both away matches this season.
- The calls
- Safer: Udinese or draw at 1.25. Riskier: under 2.5 goals at 1.62. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Udinese vs Cagliari prediction has to start with the table lying. Cagliari are fourth on 9 points from four matches (W3 D0 L1), goal difference plus two, and they have created 1.03 xG per game and conceded 1.54 across those four. Udinese are 13th on 4 points from three (W1 D1 L1), with 5 scored and 5 conceded, 1.32 xG created and 1.68 conceded. The Elo ratings have them 1707 against 1690, a 17-point gap in Udinese's favour, and a home ground is worth 60 to 80 points on that scale. The market agrees: 2.07 against 3.75.
Neither club is in crisis. Kosta Runjaić, at Udinese since June 2024, has taken three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five competitive matches, 2.00 points per game, and the one defeat was 1-2 at home to Lazio. Fabio Pisacane, promoted from the Primavera in June 2025, has won four of six competitive matches and two in a row, with three clean sheets in the six. What Cagliari have not done is dominate anything: they had 38% of the ball at Atalanta and won 2-1, and 35% against Inter and lost 1-0.
The week separates them. Udinese were at San Siro on Monday night with five players unavailable: Oumar Solet, Nicolò Zaniolo, Jakub Piotrowski, Juan Arizala and Matteo Palma. Piotrowski's is the serious one, a cardiac arrhythmia diagnosed during the Lazio match followed by ablation surgery. Cagliari have not played since Saturday at Atalanta and trained as a full group on Monday, with Zé Pedro cleared after leaving that match holding his left hand.
The markets
Double chance
Udinese or draw
Udinese have been behind at half-time in none of their five competitive matches and lost one of them; we make Udinese or the draw 75% against the 74% the threeway prices imply.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Total goals
Under 2.5
The two sides project at roughly 1.3 and 1.0 goals from their per-game figures; over 2.5 has landed in one of Cagliari's four Serie A matches, and we make under 2.5 62% against the market's 59%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Result & goals
Match result
UdinesePrice 2.07
3/5Udinese are 17 Elo points clear before a home ground worth 60 to 80 on that scale, and Cagliari have created 1.03 xG a game; we make Udinese 47% against the market's 45%.
EvidencexG trendHead-to-headProbable XIs
Asian handicap
Udinese 0Price 1.49
3/5The same call with the draw taken out: Udinese have won four of the eight competitive meetings to Cagliari's one, and the hosts have lost one of their last five competitive matches.
EvidenceHead-to-headGoals table
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.20
4/5Four goals or more have arrived in one of Udinese's five competitive matches and none of Cagliari's six, and Cagliari concede 0.67 a game; we make under 3.5 81% against the market's 78%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
1st-half Total goals
Under 1.5Price 1.31
3/5Two or more first-half goals have arrived in two of these sides' seven Serie A matches this season, and the weighted season averages have Udinese scoring 0.64 before the break and Cagliari 0.53.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 15:00 Udine time
- Saturday
- Venue
- Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
- Udinese have drawn one and lost one of two home league matches
- Rest
- 5 days vs 7
- Udinese were away at Inter on Monday night; Cagliari last played on Saturday
- Table
- 13th vs 4th
- 4 points from three matches against 9 from four
- Coaches
- Runjaić vs Pisacane
- In post since June 2024 and June 2025
Part one
Analysis
Three chapters: why the total is the cleanest read here, why the cards count sits low, and why the corner count belongs to Cagliari.
01Goals
Udinese at home are awkward rather than dangerous. Their last four home competitive matches read two wins, one draw and one defeat, 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game, one clean sheet, 1.50 xG created and 1.67 conceded. They have been ahead at half-time in two of those four and behind in none. In Serie A they have conceded in all three matches and been out-shot 18.0 to 13.0 per game.
Cagliari travel better than they play at home. Both away competitive matches this season ended in wins, 3 scored and 1 conceded. Across four Serie A matches they have scored 1.00 and conceded 0.50 per game with two clean sheets, and over 2.5 goals has landed once. Their 1.54 xG conceded per Serie A game is carried by a single night: Inter created 3.67 at the Unipol Domus. The other three league matches gave up 0.75, 0.50 and 1.26.
Add the per-game figures together and the match projects at roughly 1.3 goals for Udinese and 1.0 for Cagliari. That is a total under 2.5, not over it. Over 2.5 has landed in two of Udinese's three Serie A matches and one of Cagliari's four, against a league average of 57% across 37 matches this season. The market prices under 2.5 at 1.62 and under 3.5 at 1.20, and both sit on the same argument.
Cagliari have conceded 0.67 goals a game with three clean sheets in six competitive matches; Udinese have conceded in all three Serie A games.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Udinese 5, Cagliari 6. Splits: Udinese at home (4), Cagliari away (2).
| Metric | UdineseHome | CagliariAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.61.25 at home | 1.01.5 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.21.0 at home | 0.670.5 away |
| Both teams scored | 80%75% at home | 33%50% away |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%50% at home | 33%50% away |
| Clean sheets | 20%25% at home | 50%50% away |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Udinese have created 1.32 xG a game and conceded 1.68 in three Serie A matches; Cagliari 1.03 and 1.54 in four, and took 9 points from them.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27 only: Udinese 3 matches, Cagliari 4.
UdineseHome
avg xG 1.32 · avg xGA 1.68
1–1D
Como (H)
2–3W
Monza (A)
1–2L
Lazio (H)
CagliariAway
avg xG 1.03 · avg xGA 1.54
0–1W
Parma (A)
0–1L
Inter (H)
1–0W
Lecce (H)
1–2W
Atalanta (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Source: Match xG from this season's Serie A fixtures.
Udinese have won four of the eight competitive meetings, Cagliari one, with three draws, at 2.50 goals a meeting and over 2.5 in three of eight.
4
Udinese
3
Draws
1
Cagliari
9 May 2026·Serie A
Cagliari0–2Udinese5 Oct 2025·Serie A
Udinese1–1Cagliari3 May 2025·Serie A
Cagliari1–2Udinese25 Oct 2024·Serie A
Udinese2–0Cagliari18 Feb 2024·Serie A
Udinese1–1Cagliari1 Nov 2023·Coppa Italia
Udinese1–2Cagliari17 Sept 2023·Serie A
Cagliari0–0Udinese3 Apr 2022·Serie A
Udinese5–1Cagliari
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Udinese or drawSafer
Price 1.254/5Total goals
Under 2.5Riskier
Price 1.623/5Match result
Udinese
Price 2.073/5Asian handicap
Udinese 0
Price 1.493/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.204/51st-half Total goals
Under 1.5
Price 1.313/5
02Cards
Neither of these sides gives a referee much to do. Udinese's Serie A sample is three matches, under the four we want, so this chapter counts every competitive match for both. Across Udinese's five they have collected 2.4 cards a game and drawn 0.4 from the other side, 2.8 in the match, with over 3.5 landing once in five. Cagliari's six read 1.3 and 1.3, 2.7 in the match, over 3.5 twice in six.
Both are well under the league, which has averaged 3.24 cards a match and 49% over 3.5 across 37 matches this season. The fouls point the same way in the weighted season averages: Udinese 13.03 per game, Cagliari 11.37, against a league figure of 22.76 for both sides combined. No referee has been appointed yet, so there is no discipline line worth taking on this board.
Cards run at 2.8 a match across Udinese's five competitive games and 2.7 across Cagliari's six, against a Serie A average of 3.24 over 37 matches.
Sample: All competitive matches this season: Udinese 5, Cagliari 6. Serie A sample too small for Udinese.
| Metric | UdineseHome | CagliariAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to them per game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Cards shown to opponents per game | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 20% | 33% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Corners are the clearest tell of how Udinese play. Across their five competitive matches they have won 2.8 a game and conceded 5.8, a match total of 8.6 with over 9.5 landing in three of five. In Serie A alone the split is 2.0 won against 7.0 conceded. Como took ten corners in Udine and Udinese took one; Lazio took eight to their two. Udinese sit deep, win the ball and go the other way.
Cagliari are the tidier side of the two here: 4.7 won and 3.8 conceded across six competitive matches, 8.5 in the match, over 9.5 twice in six. The league has averaged 9.27 corners a match with 43% over 9.5, so both sides' matches run under it. That is analysis, not a lean: the count in this fixture depends almost entirely on how long Udinese spend defending, and that is not something to price.
Udinese have won 2.8 corners a game and conceded 5.8 across five competitive matches; Cagliari 4.7 and 3.8 across six.
Sample: All competitive matches this season: Udinese 5, Cagliari 6.
| Metric | UdineseHome | CagliariAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.8 | 3.8 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 60% | 33% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 17
- Elo points between the two sides
- Udinese 1707, Cagliari 1690. On that scale a home ground is worth 60 to 80 points, and that is where this match's entire edge comes from.
- 1.03
- Cagliari xG created per Serie A match
- Across the four matches that brought 9 points. They have scored four goals in them. The points are running ahead of the performances.
- 0.67
- Cagliari goals conceded per game
- Six competitive matches, three clean sheets. Only Hellas Verona have scored more than once against them this season, and that was in the cup.
- 4 of 8
- competitive meetings won by Udinese
- Cagliari have won one of the eight, with three draws, at 2.50 goals a meeting and over 2.5 goals in three of them.
Put the per-game figures together and this match projects at roughly 1.3 goals for Udinese and 1.0 for Cagliari: a one-goal home win and a total that sits under 2.5 rather than over it. The market's own numbers say 45% home, 29% draw, 25% away. Ours land within two points of all three, which is the check we want rather than the argument we make.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Udinese pick a back three from what is left of five absentees; Cagliari name the eleven that won at Atalanta.
05Team news
Udinese are without five players including Oumar Solet and Jakub Piotrowski; Cagliari list only Yael Trepy, still in return-to-fitness work.
UdineseHome
Oumar SoletDF
injury
Result
OutJakub PiotrowskiMF
cardiac arrhythmia diagnosed during the Lazio match, followed by ablation surgery
Result
OutNicolò ZanioloFW
injury
Goals
OutJuan ArizalaDF
injury
Result
OutMatteo PalmaDF
injury
Result
Out
CagliariAway
Yael TrepyFW
individual return-to-fitness programme
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Udinese's five absentees were reported on Monday when the squad travelled to Inter. Cagliari's training report the same day cleared Zé Pedro, whose left hand injury at Atalanta showed no fracture.
06Expected XI
Runjaić keeps the 3-4-2-1 that started at Inter, with Ebosse, Kabasele and Abankwah covering for Solet; Pisacane names the eleven that won at Atalanta.
UdineseHome
Kosta Runjaić
CagliariAway
Fabio Pisacane
Both are the last confirmed starting elevens: Udinese's from Monday at Inter, Cagliari's from Saturday at Atalanta. Goalkeeper first, then each line left to right.
07Shape and plan
Wing-backs against a flat four
Udinese's 3-4-2-1 pushes Kamara and Vojvoda high and asks Deiola and Fazzini to go back with them. Udinese have won 2.0 corners a game in Serie A and conceded 7.0: they do not build pressure, they wait and break. The width is where their 13.0 shots a Serie A game come from.
Maldini behind Mendy
Cagliari's two goals at Atalanta were a Mendy finish and a Maldini penalty, from 1.10 xG. On 1.03 xG a game across four Serie A matches they score from very little, and Maldini is the reason: he is the creator, the finisher and the penalty taker in one.
Where Udinese leak
1.68 xG conceded per Serie A game and 18.0 shots faced a match. Cagliari face nearly as many, 19.0 a game, and still concede 0.50 in league play. Two sides that absorb pressure and score from few chances is how a total ends up under 2.5.
The first half belongs to Udinese
Udinese have not been behind at half-time in any of their five competitive matches and were ahead in three. Cagliari were behind at the break in two of six. The weighted season averages give Udinese 0.64 first-half goals scored and 0.39 conceded, Cagliari 0.53 and 0.57.
08Three duels
Keinan Davis
Udinese · FW
With Zaniolo out he is the reference point. Udinese's attack is a counter and a cross, and both end with him.
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp
Udinese · MF
The link between the wing-backs and Davis. Against a 4-4-1-1 the space he works in is the one Winks has to close.
Jesper Karlström
Udinese · MF
The captain sets the tempo from deep. Udinese have kept 41% possession or less in three of their last four home matches and still controlled them.
Daniel Maldini
Cagliari · FW
Cagliari's creator and penalty taker, and the reason 1.03 xG a game has produced four goals and 9 points.
Harry Winks
Cagliari · MF
The pivot who lets Cagliari win on 38% of the ball. He decides how long they can hold a lead.
Elia Caprile
Cagliari · GK
Three clean sheets in six competitive matches behind a defence that faces 19.0 shots a Serie A game.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 47%chanceMost likely
Udinese find the one goal
Udinese have been ahead at half-time in three of five competitive matches and behind in none. A first-half lead from a break down the Kamara side, then an hour of Cagliari holding the ball with 1.03 xG a game to do something with it. It finishes 1-0 and the total never threatens 2.5.
- 28%chance
Cagliari take the point
Cagliari have conceded 0.50 goals a game in four Serie A matches with two clean sheets, and Udinese have scored more than once only at Monza this season. Caprile keeps the first one out, Maldini finds one moment, and a 0-0 or 1-1 leaves Cagliari still in the top four.
- 25%chance
Cagliari win a third away match
Both away trips this season ended in wins, 3 scored and 1 conceded. Udinese have conceded in all three Serie A matches at 1.68 xG against per game, and the back three is without Solet. One Maldini moment and Cagliari defend a lead, as they did at Bergamo.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Cagliari have 9 points from four matches on 1.03 xG a game. Udinese have 4 from three and the better squad. Two numbers like that meet in the middle at 1-0.
10The verdict
Udinese by one, and not many goals in it
Udinese are the favourite at 2.07 and they get there without Oumar Solet, Nicolò Zaniolo and Jakub Piotrowski, which is why the confidence is a 3 and why the safer call is the double chance rather than the win. Those absences are one match old and untested: Udinese had already conceded in all three Serie A matches at 1.68 xG against per game before any of them, so the defence was the problem, not the absentee list, and we build nothing further on it. We make it Udinese 47%, the draw 28%, Cagliari 25%, against the market's 45, 29 and 25 - close enough that there is no gap to explain. The reason we are not with the table is the xG behind it: Cagliari's 9 points from four matches rest on 1.03 xG created and 1.54 conceded per game, and three of their four league matches have finished with two goals or fewer in them. Both coaches are settled, neither club is in crisis, and the Elo gap plus a home ground is the whole edge. One goal decides it and the total stays low.
What would change our mind
- If Solet is passed fit on Friday, the level handicap on Udinese firms up; the goals leans do not move.
- If Pisacane leaves Maldini out, Cagliari's 1.03 xG a game falls further and the safer call gets stronger.
- If Udinese are chasing the game after an hour, the under 2.5 lean is the first thing to go.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Udinese vs Cagliari?
- Udinese. The market has them at 2.07 with the draw at 3.20 and Cagliari at 3.75. The Elo ratings are 1707 against 1690, a 17-point gap before a home ground worth 60 to 80 points on that scale. Cagliari are higher in the table, fourth on 9 points from four matches against Udinese's 4 from three, but they have created 1.03 xG per game and conceded 1.54.
- Who is missing for Udinese against Cagliari?
- Oumar Solet, Nicolò Zaniolo, Jakub Piotrowski, Juan Arizala and Matteo Palma were all unavailable when Udinese went to Inter on Monday. Piotrowski was diagnosed with a cardiac arrhythmia during the Lazio match and has had ablation surgery. Kosta Runjaić is expected to keep the 3-4-2-1 that started at San Siro.
- What is the Cagliari team news?
- Cagliari trained as a full group on Monday. Zé Pedro came through normally after leaving the Atalanta match with a left hand injury that examinations cleared of any fracture. Yael Trepy has begun a gradual return-to-fitness programme and is not yet available. Fabio Pisacane should name the 4-4-1-1 that won 2-1 at Atalanta.
- What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?
- Eight competitive meetings: Udinese have won four, Cagliari one, with three draws, at 2.50 goals a meeting and over 2.5 goals in three of the eight. Udinese won the most recent, 2-0 in Sardinia in May, and the one before it in Udine finished 1-1.
- What is the predicted score for Udinese vs Cagliari?
- Udinese 1-0 Cagliari. Udinese project at roughly 1.3 goals and Cagliari at 1.0 from each side's per-game figures. Cagliari have conceded 0.67 goals a game across six competitive matches with three clean sheets, and over 2.5 goals has landed in only one of their four Serie A matches.
Written 14 Sept 2026, 19:35 · Updated 14 Sept 2026, 19:35 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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