vs
Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
Mon 14 Sept · 19:00Estadio Guillermo Laza, Flores
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Deportivo RiestraHomeLanusAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Lanus by the odd goal. We make it Lanus 37%, draw 33%, Riestra 30% - all but identical to the market's 36/35/30.
- The one stat
- Riestra have conceded four goals in their last ten Liga Profesional home matches, with six clean sheets. That is 0.4 a game.
- The risk
- Riestra are unbeaten in four meetings with Lanus (W3 D1), and Lanus have won once in their last ten away matches in all competitions.
- The calls
- Safer: under 2.5 goals at 1.33. Riskier: both teams to score - no at 1.54. Five more leans on the board.
The situation
Our Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus prediction starts with a table neither side enjoys reading. This is round nine of the Clausura and both of them sit outside the eight Zone A places that open the knockout phase. Riestra have drawn their last five competitive matches and are winless in four league games. Lanus arrive off a 1-0 win over Defensa y Justicia, Carlos Izquierdoz heading the only goal, which ended a run without one.
Neither club is in crisis. Riestra have not lost a competitive match since 15 August: five straight draws is a stall, not a slide. Guillermo Duró, back for a second spell since 5 April, has had five months to bed in a back five, and the shape shows - 0.77 xG conceded a league game. Mauricio Pellegrino has been at Lanus since 14 December 2024, won the 2025 Copa Sudamericana and the 2026 Recopa Sudamericana with them and signed a new deal in January. There is no coaching bounce to price on either bench; both sides are at their underlying level, and those levels are close: 1541 Elo against 1548.
The week separates them. Riestra went to penalties against Banfield in the Copa Argentina on 9 September and went out, which leaves five days' rest against eight for Lanus. Pellegrino spent Monday calling Riestra a side that defends well, knows its own game and punishes mistakes. That is exactly what the last meeting looked like: 0-0 in May, Lanus with 71% of the ball and seven shots on target, and nothing to show for it.
The markets
Total goals
Under 2.5
One of Riestra's last ten home league matches has gone over 2.5 and three of Lanus's last nine league games; the last meeting was 0-0. We make under 2.5 about 74% against the market's 71%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Both teams to score
No
Both teams scored in three of Riestra's last nine league matches and three of Lanus's, and in only one of the four meetings between them. We make it about 64% against the market's 61%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-headxG trend
Result & goals
Match result
LanusPrice 2.62
3/5Lanus create 1.30 xG a league match to Riestra's 1.13 and take 15.4 shots a game to 9.2, and come in on eight days' rest to five. We make Lanus 37% against the market's 36%.
EvidencexG trendGoals tableTeam news
Double chance
Lanus or drawPrice 1.34
4/5Our 37% for Lanus and 33% for the draw add to 70% that Riestra do not win, against the market's 71%; Riestra have won twice in their last nine league matches and drawn the last three.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Asian handicap
Lanus 0Price 1.73
3/5The level handicap is void on the draw we rate at 33% and leaves the 37% Lanus win, the number the market prices at 36% - the sensible way to hold the result view when Riestra are unbeaten in four meetings.
EvidencexG trendHead-to-head
1st-half Total goals
Under 1.5Price 1.18
4/5Lanus have been level at half-time in seven of nine league matches and led at the break in none; Riestra were level in five of nine. We make a first half under two goals about 82% to the market's 79%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5Price 1.23
4/5Rey Hilfer averages 5.19 yellows a game over 119 matches, Riestra's league games average 4.5 cards and Lanus's 4.1, and 75% of Liga Profesional matches this season clear 3.5.
EvidenceRefereeDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 19:00 Buenos Aires time
- Monday
- Venue
- Estadio Guillermo Laza, Flores
- Referee
- Leandro Rey Hilfer
- 5.19 yellows a game over 119 matches
- Weather
- 14 °C, dry
- light wind, no rain forecast
- Rest
- 5 days vs 8
- Riestra went to penalties in the Copa Argentina on 9 September
Part one
Analysis
Two of the lowest-scoring sides in the division, a referee who books, and a home ground where almost nothing gets through.
01Goals
Neither of these teams scores. Across their last nine Liga Profesional matches each has scored exactly eight goals - 0.89 a game, against a league average of 2.10. Riestra have failed to score in four of those nine, Lanus in three.
Riestra's home record is the sterner half of it. Their last ten league matches at the Guillermo Laza have brought four goals conceded, six clean sheets, and one game over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in two of those ten. Lanus away in the league are looser - eleven conceded in ten - but they have managed only eight at the other end, and in all competitions they have failed to score in five of their last eight away trips.
The first half is where this gets extreme. Lanus have been level at the interval in seven of their nine league matches and have led at half-time in none of them; Riestra have been level in five of nine. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.33 and we would go a touch shorter than that.
Riestra have conceded four goals in ten home league matches; Lanus eleven in ten away. Neither side averages more than 0.89 goals a league game.
Sample: Liga Profesional 2026: last 9 each; splits are Riestra at home and Lanus away, last 10
| Metric | Deportivo RiestraHome | LanusAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 0.890.9 at home | 0.890.8 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.780.4 at home | 1.111.1 away |
| xG per game | 1.13 | 1.3 |
| Both teams scored | 33%20% at home | 33%30% away |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22%10% at home | 33%30% away |
| Level at half-time | 56% | 78% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Lanus create more - 1.30 xG a league match to Riestra's 1.13 - but managed 0.16 and 0.91 xG on their last two away trips.
Sample: this season's competitive matches with xG: Riestra 9, Lanus 10, all competitions
Deportivo RiestraHome
avg xG 1.15 · avg xGA 0.95
0–3L
Gremio (H)
4–1L
Atletico Torque (A)
1–1D
Palestino (A)
3–0W
Boca Juniors (H)
2–1L
Defensa Y Justicia (A)
0–1L
Barracas Central (H)
2–0W
Estudiantes L.P. (H)
2–0L
Newells Old Boys (A)
1–1D
Velez Sarsfield (H)
LanusAway
avg xG 1.35 · avg xGA 0.78
1–0W
Mirassol (H)
2–0W
Cienciano (H)
1–0W
San Lorenzo (H)
4–0L
Cienciano (A)
0–1L
Instituto Cordoba (H)
2–1L
Union Santa Fe (A)
0–3W
Talleres Cordoba (A)
1–3L
Independiente (H)
1–1D
Argentinos JRS (H)
1–0L
Boca Juniors (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Riestra are unbeaten in four competitive meetings (W3 D1, no Lanus win); the four have averaged 1.75 goals and only one has gone over 2.5.
3
Deportivo Riestra
1
Draws
0
Lanus
2 May 2026·Liga Profesional Argentina
Lanus0–0Deportivo Riestra14 Jul 2025·Liga Profesional Argentina
Deportivo Riestra1–0Lanus24 Jan 2025·Liga Profesional Argentina
Lanus0–2Deportivo Riestra9 Aug 2024·Liga Profesional Argentina
Deportivo Riestra3–1Lanus
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total goals
Under 2.5Safer
Price 1.334/5Both teams to score
NoRiskier
Price 1.543/5Match result
Lanus
Price 2.623/5Double chance
Lanus or draw
Price 1.344/5Asian handicap
Lanus 0
Price 1.733/51st-half Total goals
Under 1.5
Price 1.184/5
02Cards
Leandro Rey Hilfer books. Over 119 matches he has averaged 5.19 yellows a game, against a Liga Profesional average of 4.89 yellows this season, and he has shown 0.13 reds and awarded 0.38 penalties a game.
The teams feed him. Riestra's league matches this season have averaged 4.5 cards and cleared 3.5 in five of eight; Lanus's have averaged 4.1 and cleared 3.5 in six of nine. League-wide, three quarters of Liga Profesional matches this season go over 3.5 cards. Riestra also commit the more fouls of the two - 16.49 a game to 12.52 on weighted season averages across all competitions - which is what a deep block with 35% of the ball tends to produce.
Rey Hilfer averages 5.19 yellows a game over 119 matches, against a Liga Profesional average of 4.89 yellows this season.
Sample: career record, 119 matches; league average from Liga Profesional 2026, 387 matches
Leandro Rey Hilfer
119 matches this season
league average
Riestra's league matches average 4.5 cards and Lanus's 4.1; three quarters of Liga Profesional matches this season clear 3.5.
Sample: Liga Profesional 2026 only: Riestra 8 matches, Lanus 9
| Metric | Deportivo RiestraHome | LanusAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Cards in their matches | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 63% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
Price 1.234/5
03Corners
Corners split the two sides more cleanly than anything else. Lanus win 5.4 a game in the league and their matches average 9.9, over 9.5 in five of nine - the product of 52% possession and 15.4 shots a game. Riestra win 3.4, concede 4.4, and their matches average 7.8, over 9.5 in only two of eight.
Where those two profiles meet is genuinely unpredictable: Lanus will have the ball and win corners, Riestra will not give them much else. That is a coin flip, so it stays here as analysis and never reaches the board.
Lanus win 5.4 corners a league game to Riestra's 3.4, but Riestra's matches average 7.8 corners to Lanus's 9.9.
Sample: Liga Profesional 2026 only: Riestra 8 matches, Lanus 9
| Metric | Deportivo RiestraHome | LanusAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 3.4 | 5.4 |
| Corners conceded per game | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Corners in their matches | 7.8 | 9.9 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 25% | 56% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 0.4
- goals Riestra concede per home league game
- Four conceded in their last ten at the Guillermo Laza, with six clean sheets. Lanus need to be efficient, not dominant.
- 7 of 9
- Lanus league matches level at half-time
- They have led at the interval in none of their nine league games. Whatever happens here happens late.
- 1W-0D-9L
- Lanus in their last ten away, all comps
- The single reason to be careful with any Lanus result lean, and why the goals lines carry this preview.
Three numbers carry this preview: how little Riestra concede at home, how little Lanus win away, and how quiet the first halves have been on both sides.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Riestra's back five against Lanus's possession, and the two Lanus midfielders who will not be in it.
05Team news
Ramiro Carrera is out for Lanus and Marcelino Moreno doubtful; Riestra listed no absentees. Lanus have averaged 0.89 goals a league game either way.
Deportivo RiestraHome
Rodrigo GalloMF
injury
Result
Out
LanusAway
Ramiro CarreraMF
recurrence of the injury picked up against Defensa y Justicia
Goals
OutMarcelino MorenoAM
returning from a long absence
GoalsResult
DoubtfulLuciano RomeroFW
injury
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. From Monday's national match previews and Mauricio Pellegrino's Monday press conference; neither Riestra preview named an absentee.
06Expected XI
Duró keeps a back five; Pellegrino keeps the ball - Lanus average 52% possession to Riestra's 35% on weighted season averages.
Deportivo RiestraHome
Guillermo Duró
LanusAway
Mauricio Pellegrino
Probable XIs from Monday's national previews; Riestra's shape has alternated between a back five and a back four this season.
07Shape and plan
The block against the ball
Lanus keep 52% of the ball and complete 80% of their passes; Riestra keep 35% and complete 54%. Lanus will have the game for an hour. The question the numbers pose is whether 15.4 shots a league game turn into more than the 0.89 goals they have actually averaged - because at 4.56 shots on target a game, they are not turning volume into pressure.
Salvio and Watson against five defenders
A back five gives Riestra spare bodies inside and forces Lanus wide. Eduardo Salvio's deliveries and Franco Watson between the lines are the ways through, and with Ramiro Carrera out and Marcelino Moreno doubtful, Pellegrino has fewer alternatives to try if the first plan stalls.
Set pieces are the likeliest goal
Izquierdoz headed the winner against Defensa y Justicia. Lanus win 5.4 corners a league game to Riestra's 4.4 conceded, and in a match projecting under two goals one restart can settle it. Riestra's own route is the same in reverse: they beat Boca 3-0 at this ground in July on 18% possession.
Legs after a shootout
Riestra played 120 minutes and penalties on 9 September and go again on five days' rest; Lanus have had eight. In a game likely to be level after an hour, that gap tends to show late - and Lanus score 0.78 goals a game in the second half on weighted season averages, to 0.15 in the first.
08Three duels
Ignacio Arce
Deportivo Riestra · GK
The whole Riestra home record runs through him and the five in front of him.
4 goals conceded in 10 home league matches
Antony Alonso
Deportivo Riestra · FW
Riestra's reference point and the forward who has to hold the ball when they break out of the block.
0.89 goals a game for the side in 9 league matches
Milton Céliz
Deportivo Riestra · MF
Carries Riestra out of their own third; without him the ball comes straight back.
Eduardo Salvio
Lanus · RW
Pellegrino's chief supplier against a packed middle - Lanus's corners and crosses start with him.
5.4 corners won per league game by Lanus
Carlos Izquierdoz
Lanus · CB
Scored the winner against Defensa y Justicia and is Lanus's main threat from set pieces, which is how this is most likely decided.
Agustín Cardozo
Lanus · CM
Sets the tempo of the hour Lanus will spend with the ball; with Carrera out he has no obvious understudy.
52% possession on weighted season averages
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 37%chanceMost likely
Lanus take the one moment
Lanus keep the ball for an hour, Riestra sit in their five, and the game turns on a single restart - a Salvio delivery, an Izquierdoz header, a mistake punished. Riestra have scored 0.89 a league game and will not chase it back. 1-0 or 2-0, and the goals lines still land.
- 33%chance
Another Riestra stalemate
The obvious one. Riestra have drawn five competitive matches in a row and five of their last ten home league games; Lanus have been level at half-time in seven of nine league matches and led at the break in none. Nobody scores before the hour, and nobody scores after it.
- 30%chance
Riestra nick it at the Laza
Riestra have three wins and a draw from four meetings with Lanus and beat Boca 3-0 at this ground in July on 18% of the ball. An early set piece, then the block. Lanus have failed to score in five of their last eight away matches in all competitions.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Riestra have turned the Guillermo Laza into a place where nothing happens: four goals conceded in ten home league games. Lanus are the better side and will have the ball. One goal should be enough - and one goal is probably all there is.
10The verdict
Lanus by one in a quiet night at the Laza
We make it Lanus 37%, draw 33%, Deportivo Riestra 30% - within a couple of points of the market's 36/35/30, so there is no gap to explain away. Neither club is in crisis: Riestra's five straight draws are a stall rather than a slide, and Lanus ended their own winless run against Defensa y Justicia. Both coaches are long settled, Pellegrino since December 2024 and Duró since April, so there is no bounce to price on either bench. The absences do not move the number either: Ramiro Carrera was hurt in the win Lanus got anyway, and Marcelino Moreno has been out long enough that the 0.89 goals a league game Lanus average already reflects it. What decides it is that Lanus create more - 1.30 xG a league match to 1.13, 15.4 shots to 9.2 - and arrive on eight days' rest against five for a Riestra side that went to penalties on Wednesday. What none of that does is open the game up: Riestra have conceded four goals in their last ten home league matches, Lanus have led at half-time in none of their nine league games, and the four meetings between these two have averaged 1.75 goals. So we take the narrow version.
What would change our mind
- If Marcelino Moreno is passed fit and starts, raise the goals expectation a notch - it weakens the riskier call more than the safer one.
- If Riestra field Antony Alonso and Alexander Díaz together and press higher, the under 2.5 call survives but the Lanus result leans get harder.
- If Lanus rotate Eduardo Salvio after eight days' rest, drop the Lanus win lean and keep only the goals lines.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus?
- Lanus, narrowly. We make it Lanus 37%, draw 33%, Deportivo Riestra 30%, close to the market's 36/35/30. Lanus create 1.30 xG a league match to Riestra's 1.13 and take 15.4 shots a game to 9.2, and they arrive on eight days' rest to Riestra's five.
- What is the predicted score for Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus?
- Deportivo Riestra 0-1 Lanus. Riestra have conceded four goals in their last ten Liga Profesional home matches with six clean sheets, and Lanus have scored eight in their last ten away league games. Our confidence in the call is 3 out of 5.
- What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Riestra and Lanus?
- Riestra are unbeaten in the four competitive meetings: three wins and a draw, no Lanus win. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished 0-0. The four meetings have averaged 1.75 goals and only one has gone over 2.5.
- Who is missing for Lanus against Deportivo Riestra?
- Ramiro Carrera is out after a recurrence of the injury he picked up in the 1-0 win over Defensa y Justicia, and Marcelino Moreno is doubtful after a long spell out. Luciano Romero is also listed as injured. Deportivo Riestra named no absentees in Monday's national previews.
- Will there be many goals in Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus?
- We do not expect so. One of Riestra's last ten home league matches has gone over 2.5 goals, and three of Lanus's last nine league games. Each side has scored 0.89 goals a game across its last nine league matches, against a league average of 2.10. Under 2.5 goals at 1.33 is our safer call.
Written 14 Sept 2026, 18:55 · Updated 14 Sept 2026, 18:55 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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