vs
Bahia vs Remo
Mon 14 Sept · 20:00Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
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BahiaHomeRemoAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Bahia to win, 2-0. Fifth in the table against a side that has lost three in a row and concedes 2.00 goals per away league match.
- The one stat
- Remo have created 0.63 expected goals per game across their last six away matches, and scored 1.00.
- The risk
- Remo have beaten Bahia twice this year and drawn nothing else; the Copa do Brasil exit in May still stings in Salvador.
- The calls
- Safer: Bahia to win at 1.42. Riskier: Bahia on the -1 Asian line at 1.67. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
The Bahia vs Remo prediction starts with two seasons running in opposite directions. Bahia are fifth on 43 points from 26 matches (W11 D10 L5), in the Libertadores qualification places, and have won their last three Serie A games inside a 10-match unbeaten league run. Remo are 19th on 23 points from 26 (W5 D8 L13) with a goal difference of minus 13, in the relegation zone, beaten three times in a row and winless in eight competitive matches.
Remo meet the crisis test on every count. Three straight defeats, a home loss to Coritiba on 31 August that dropped them to second bottom, and a coach who answered the question about his future by saying the decision belonged to the board. Leo Conde took the job on 5 March 2026, replacing Juan Carlos Osorio, and has five wins, five draws and ten defeats from 20 Serie A matches in charge. He is 27 rounds into the job, so there is no new-coach bounce left to price: what you see is the level. Bahia have no such problem. Rogerio Ceni passed three years in charge this month, appointed in September 2023, and although 2026 brought a Libertadores qualifying exit and a Copa do Brasil elimination, the league form since the mid-season break is the strongest run of his tenure.
The week has been quiet for both. Neither side played midweek: Bahia have had nine days since winning 3-2 at RB Bragantino on 5 September, Remo eight since losing 1-0 at home to Flamengo. That matters more for Remo, who lose two starters to suspension and have to rebuild a back four for the long trip from Belem to Salvador.
The markets
Match result
Bahia
Bahia are unbeaten in 10 Serie A matches and concede 1.00 per home league game against a side that has lost three in a row; we make it 62% against the market's 66%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Asian handicap
Bahia -1
Remo concede 2.00 goals per away league match and create 0.63 expected goals a game on the road, so a two-goal margin is the natural shape of our 2-0 call.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendProbable XIs
Result & goals
Asian handicap
Bahia 0Price 1.12
4/5The same 62% view with the draw taken out: Bahia have not lost a league match since May and Remo have won two of 13 away league games this season.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.19
4/5Only one of Bahia's last six home matches finished under 1.5 goals, and Remo have conceded 26 in 13 away league games; we have this near 80% against the market's 78%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.46
3/5Bahia's home matches have gone over 3.5 once in six and Remo score 1.00 per away game; we make under 3.5 about 70% against the market's 64%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5Price 1.32
3/5The referee averages 5.62 yellows per game over 85 Serie A matches and the league clears 3.5 cards in 74% of its 263 fixtures this season.
EvidenceRefereeDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 20:00 Salvador time
- Monday
- Venue
- Arena Fonte Nova
- Salvador, Bahia
- Referee
- Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima
- 5.62 yellows per game over 85 Serie A matches
- Weather
- 25 °C, breezy
- 16 km/h wind, 5% chance of rain
- Rest
- 9 days vs 8
- Neither side played midweek
- Positions
- 5th vs 19th
- Libertadores places against the relegation zone
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, why the cards should climb, and what the corner counts say about who holds the ball.
01Goals
Bahia do not blow teams away, but they score and they defend. Over their last 12 Serie A matches they have taken 1.75 points per game, scored 1.67 and conceded 1.17, with four clean sheets. The underlying numbers back it: 1.85 expected goals for and 0.96 against per league game. At the Arena Fonte Nova across the full season they have scored 20 in 13 (1.54 per game) and conceded 13 (1.00).
Remo do not create. Their last 12 Serie A matches read 1.00 points per game on 0.83 expected goals for and 1.43 against, and the away picture is worse: 0.63 expected goals per game from their last six trips, one win in six, and 26 conceded in 13 away league matches this season, 2.00 per game. Their 2-3 home defeat to Coritiba is the outlier in the sample; strip it out and the attack barely registers.
Put those together and the shape is a low-scoring home win rather than a rout. Bahia's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals only twice in six; Remo have gone over in 58% of their 12 league games, but usually because they concede three, not because they score. Two or three goals in the match, most of them Bahia's, is the number we would write down.
Bahia concede 1.00 per home league match this season; Remo ship 2.00 per away league match. That is the whole fixture in two numbers.
Sample: Serie A 2026, last 12 each; splits are all 13 Bahia home and 13 Remo away league matches
| Metric | BahiaHome | RemoAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.671.54 at home | 1.251.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.171.0 at home | 1.582.0 away |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.0 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Bahia have cleared 2.30 expected goals in four of their last five league matches; Remo passed 1.00 once in ten.
Sample: Serie A 2026, last 10 matches with expected-goals data for each side
BahiaHome
avg xG 1.82 · avg xGA 1.04
3–2L
Coritiba (A)
2–1W
Botafogo (H)
2–0W
Chapecoense-sc (H)
1–1D
Corinthians (H)
0–0D
Fluminense (A)
0–0D
Vasco DA Gama (H)
3–3D
Chapecoense-sc (A)
0–2W
Vitoria (A)
3–2W
Internacional (H)
2–3W
RB Bragantino (A)
RemoAway
avg xG 0.79 · avg xGA 1.41
1–2L
Atletico Paranaense (H)
1–0W
Sao Paulo (H)
3–0L
Corinthians (A)
2–0W
Vitoria (H)
2–1L
Mirassol (A)
2–2D
Atletico-MG (H)
1–1D
Internacional (A)
2–1L
Fluminense (A)
2–3L
Coritiba (H)
0–1L
Flamengo (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Remo own this fixture in 2026: two wins and a draw from three meetings, 4.00 goals a game, both sides scoring every time, and a Copa do Brasil elimination for Bahia in May.
0
Bahia
0
Draws
3
Remo
14 May 2026·Copa Do Brasil
Remo2–1Bahia22 Apr 2026·Copa Do Brasil
Bahia1–3Remo22 Mar 2026·Serie A
Remo4–1Bahia
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Match result
BahiaSafer
Price 1.424/5Asian handicap
Bahia -1Riskier
Price 1.673/5Asian handicap
Bahia 0
Price 1.124/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.194/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.463/5
02Cards
Neither side is dirty. Bahia's 12 Serie A matches with statistics average 4.6 cards in total, Remo's 3.7, both under the league's 5.00 per match. Bahia commit more fouls and take more cards themselves, 2.5 per league game against Remo's 1.9.
The referee pulls the other way, and pulls harder. Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima averages 5.62 yellows per game across 85 Brasileirao Serie A matches, a full card above this season's 4.60 league yellow average, with 0.32 reds. Add a visiting side chasing the game with a makeshift back four and the total should clear 3.5 comfortably; the league has done so in 74% of its 263 matches this season.
Pereira de Lima averages 5.62 yellows per game, a card above this season's Serie A average of 4.60.
Sample: Brasileirao Serie A career, 85 matches officiated
Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima
85 matches this season
league average
Bahia's league games average 4.6 cards and Remo's 3.7, both under the Serie A average of 5.00 per match.
Sample: Serie A 2026, 12 matches with statistics for each side
| Metric | BahiaHome | RemoAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to them per game | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 42% | 58% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
Price 1.323/5
03Corners
Corners follow possession here, and possession follows quality. Bahia win 6.0 corners per Serie A match and concede 5.1; Remo win 5.0 and concede 6.5. Both sides' league games land around 11 in total, a shade above the league's 10.13 average, and both have cleared 9.5 in seven of 12.
The interesting number is Remo's split. They concede more corners than they win in every scope, and in their heaviest away defeats the count runs away from them entirely. Expect Bahia to camp on the edge of the box in the second half. This is analysis, not a lean: the count is too close to the line to call.
Remo concede 6.5 corners per league match and win 5.0, the only negative split of the four numbers here.
Sample: Serie A 2026, 12 matches with statistics for each side
| Metric | BahiaHome | RemoAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.1 | 6.5 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 58% | 58% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 10
- Serie A matches unbeaten for Bahia
- Three wins inside the run, and the last league defeat came in May. Home form is the spine of the call.
- 2.00
- goals Remo concede per away league match
- Twenty-six conceded in 13 away Serie A games this season. Bahia only need their usual evening to get two.
- 158
- Elo points between the two sides
- Bahia 1683, Remo 1525. On a neutral pitch that gap alone is worth roughly two wins in three before home advantage.
Everything above is this season's Serie A unless the line says otherwise, so a Copa do Brasil night in May does not pad a league rate and no friendly is counted anywhere.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Remo rebuild a back four they did not choose, and Bahia name the side that has won three in a row.
05Team news
Remo lose both suspended starters from the Flamengo defeat; Bahia's absentees have not started a league match during the current 10-game unbeaten run.
BahiaHome
ErickMF
suspended, third yellow card
Result
OutLeo VieiraMF
knee injury
Goals
OutSanabriaFW
fitness
Goals
Doubtful
RemoAway
MarcelinhoRB
suspended, third yellow card
ResultGoals
OutEdson FernandoMF
suspended, sent off after the Flamengo match
Cards
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Confirmed by Bahian and Para outlets on 11 September; both Remo suspensions date from the 1-0 home defeat to Flamengo on 6 September.
06Expected XI
Ceni names an unchanged 4-3-3; Conde has to find a new right-back and a new midfielder, with Matheus Alexandre the likeliest fix.
BahiaHome
Rogerio Ceni
RemoAway
Leo Conde
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Reported by Bahian and Para press on 11 September.
07Shape and plan
Bahia's left against a patched right
Luciano Juba and Kike Olivera attack the side where Marcelinho normally plays. Matheus Alexandre steps in cold, and Conde has openly weighed pushing Yago Pikachu back there instead, which would cost Remo their only creative outlet. Either fix leaves a seam, and Bahia win 6.0 corners a league game largely from that flank.
Who holds the ball
Bahia average 16.5 shots per Serie A match to Remo's 11.2, and 55% possession to 43% across weighted season averages. Acevedo screening in front of Duarte and Moreno lets Nestor and Jean Lucas push on. Remo's 43% is not a choice; in their last six away games they generated 0.63 expected goals a match while conceding 1.40.
The second half is where it breaks
Bahia's weighted second-half numbers read 0.74 scored and 0.55 conceded per game; Remo's 0.68 and 0.83. Remo have been level at half-time in seven of 12 league games and behind in three, so the pattern is a tight first hour and a break after it. Bahia themselves have been level at half-time in six of their 12 league games and still average 1.75 points.
Set pieces both ways
Remo concede 6.5 corners a league game and win 5.0, the worst split of the four figures in the corners table. Marllon and Tchamba are the reason Remo are not worse, but a makeshift line in front of them raises the second-ball risk in a stadium where Bahia have conceded 13 in 13 all season.
08Three duels
Alejo Veliz
Bahia · ST
Ceni's reference point through the middle, playing against two centre-backs who have conceded 26 in 13 away league matches.
Erick Pulga
Bahia · RW
Attacks the flank Remo have had to rebuild; Bahia's 16.5 shots per league game start mostly on his side.
Yago Pikachu
Remo · RW
Remo's one source of creativity, and the man Conde may be forced to drop into an emergency right-back role.
Marcelo Rangel
Remo · GK
Faces the highest shot volume Remo have seen since the Coritiba night; Remo average 3.63 goalkeeper saves per game.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 62%chanceMost likely
Bahia grind, then break away
A cagey opening, Remo sitting in a low block with a back four they did not plan. Bahia work the left flank, force corners, and the breakthrough arrives either side of the hour. Once Remo have to come out, the second goal follows on the counter. Bahia 2-0, the scoreline we would write down.
- 24%chance
Remo hold the line
Remo have been level at half-time in seven of 12 league matches and have taken draws off Internacional and Atletico-MG this season. Rangel has a big night, Bahia's finishing stays as wasteful as it was in the 0-0 with Vasco, and a point goes back to Belem. Low-scoring, probably 0-0 or 1-1.
- 14%chance
The fixture bites again
Remo have beaten Bahia twice in 2026 and knocked them out of the Copa do Brasil in May, and their 2.86 expected goals against Coritiba say the attack is not dead. One set piece, one counter, and a nervy Fonte Nova crowd turns. It is the least likely of the three, and the least supported by the season's numbers.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Remo have not won in eight, concede two a game on the road and arrive without both suspended starters from their last defeat. Bahia do not need to be brilliant. They need to be themselves.
10The verdict
Bahia by two at the Fonte Nova
We make it Bahia 62%, the draw 24%, Remo 14%. The market has 66-21-14, so we are within a couple of points on every outcome and the difference is respect for a head-to-head Remo have owned in 2026. The crisis check is one-sided: Remo have lost three in a row, are winless in eight competitive matches, sit 19th, and their coach has already handed the decision on his own future to the board. Conde is 27 rounds in, so there is no bounce to come. The with-and-without test clears Bahia: Erick, Leo Vieira and Sanabria have not started during the 10-match unbeaten league run, so none of them changes the price. Remo's two absences do matter - Marcelinho is a regular starter and his replacement arrives cold on the flank Bahia attack most. Bahia score 1.54 per home league game and concede 1.00; Remo concede 2.00 per away league game on 0.63 expected goals of their own. Two goals, a clean sheet, and the safer call is simply the win.
What would change our mind
- If Yago Pikachu is named at right-back rather than in attack, Remo lose their only creator and the -1 line firms up.
- If Veliz is left out and Ceni goes without a central striker, drop the riskier call to the level handicap instead.
- If heavy rain arrives against the 5% forecast, the goals leans tighten and under 3.5 becomes the stronger of the two.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Bahia vs Remo?
- Bahia. They are fifth on 43 points from 26 matches (W11 D10 L5) and unbeaten in 10 Serie A games; Remo are 19th on 23 points from 26 (W5 D8 L13) and have lost their last three. The Elo gap is 158 points in Bahia's favour and the market prices Bahia at 1.42, a 66% chance. We make it 62%.
- What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Remo?
- Bahia 2-0. Bahia have scored 1.54 goals per home league match this season and conceded 1.00; Remo have conceded 26 in 13 away league matches, 2.00 per game, and created only 0.63 xG per game across their last six away outings.
- Who is out for Bahia vs Remo?
- Remo are without right-back Marcelinho, suspended on a third yellow card, and midfielder Edson Fernando, sent off after the Flamengo defeat. Bahia lose Erick to suspension, Leo Vieira is still out with a knee problem and Sanabria is doubtful.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Remo?
- Remo have the edge in 2026: they won 4-1 at home in Serie A on 22 March, won 3-1 in Salvador in the Copa do Brasil on 22 April and 2-1 at home on 14 May to knock Bahia out. Three meetings, Remo two wins and a draw, 4.00 goals per meeting, both sides scoring in all three.
- Who is the referee for Bahia vs Remo?
- Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima of Pernambuco, with Douglas Schwengber da Silva on VAR. Across 85 Brasileirao Serie A matches he averages 5.62 yellow cards and 0.32 red cards per game, above this season's league average of 4.60 yellows.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 18:50 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 18:50 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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