vs
Como vs Parma
Mon 14 Sept · 18:30Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
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ComoHomeParmaAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Como to win. Seven points from three Serie A matches, all played away; Parma have one point and one goal.
- The one stat
- Parma have scored once in three Serie A matches, from 0.58 xG per game. Como have scored seven.
- The risk
- Como's Champions League opener landed three days before this, and Fàbregas has called his squad limited for two competitions.
- The calls
- Safer: Como to win at 1.25. Riskier: Como -1.5 on the handicap at 1.76. Five more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Como vs Parma prediction starts with the distance between them. Elo has Como at 1891 and Parma at 1568, a 323-point gap; on that scale the stronger side wins about two matches in three on neutral ground, and this one is at the Sinigaglia. Como have taken seven points from three Serie A matches (W2 D1, seven scored, three conceded) and every one of them was away — at Udinese, at Napoli, at Genoa. Monday is their first home league night of the season.
Cesc Fàbregas has been in charge since 19 July 2024, when he signed a four-year contract, and he took Como fourth last season and into Europe. Wednesday brought the club's first Champions League home tie, against RB Leipzig; Parma arrive three days after it. Carlos Cuesta, appointed on 19 June 2025, is 13 wins, 13 draws and 19 defeats from 45 matches in charge. Parma are not formally in crisis — there is no sacking talk and the club confirmed Cuesta for this season — but they had lost three competitive matches in a row, 0-1 to Cagliari, 0-2 at Juventus and 0-2 at home to Cremonese in the Coppa Italia, before a 1-1 with Monza stopped the run.
The number that frames the match is Parma's: one goal in three Serie A matches, 0.58 xG per game, and no goal at all in two of the three. They have been without Hans Nicolussi Caviglia since July surgery and without Adrián Bernabé, the two midfielders who carried the ball forward. Como have scored in all three league matches and put four past Genoa a week ago.
The markets
Match result
Como
We make Como 72% against the market's 76%: seven points from three Serie A matches against one, 2.33 goals per game against 0.33, and 323 Elo points of separation before home advantage is counted.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsProbable XIs
Asian handicap
Como -1.5
The verdict pushed to a two-goal margin: Como score 2.33 per game in the league and Parma concede 17.0 shots per game, but three of the last four meetings finished inside a single goal, which is why this is a two rather than a three.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Result & goals
Both teams to score
NoPrice 1.57
3/5Parma failed to score in two of their three Serie A matches and managed 0.25 xG in the only away one; with Nicolussi Caviglia and Bernabé out, creation falls to a midfield built to screen. We make it 63% against the market's 59%.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.42
3/5Our 2-0 sits under it, the eight competitive meetings have averaged 1.50 goals with only one clearing 2.5, and none of Parma's three league matches this season went over 2.5. We make it about 75% against the market's 66%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
1st-half goals
Under 1.5Price 1.50
3/5The last three meetings were goalless at the break, Parma have led at half-time in none of their three league matches, and Como were ahead at the interval in two of three without ever running away with it. We make it 66% against the market's 62%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Cards
Total cards
Under 3.5Price 2.12
2/5Como's three Serie A matches produced 2.3 cards each and none cleared 3.5, and Mucera has averaged 3.33 yellows across his three matches this season with no red. A one-sided game in which Como keep the ball is a quiet one.
EvidenceRefereeDiscipline
Corners
Total corners
Over 8.5Price 1.70
3/5All three of Como's Serie A matches cleared 8.5 corners — nine, nine and eleven — and they win 7.0 a game against a Parma side conceding 5.0 from a back five.
EvidenceCorners
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 18:30 Como time
- Monday
- Referee
- Giuseppe Mucera
- 3.33 yellows per game in his three matches this season
- Weather
- Around 22 °C, dry
- Light south-westerly breeze, mist forecast later
- Rest
- 3 days vs 8
- Como played in Europe on Wednesday; Parma last played on 6 September
- Venue
- Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
- Como's first home league match of the season
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, who takes the cards, and why the corner count is the most one-sided number on the page.
01Goals
Parma have scored once in three Serie A matches. Cagliari beat them 1-0 at the Tardini, Juventus beat them 2-0 with Parma managing 0.25 xG from four shots, and Monza took a point after leading at half-time. That is 0.33 goals and 0.58 xG per game, with 8.0 shots taken against 17.0 conceded. Their only league trip produced no goal and almost no threat.
Como's league numbers are the mirror image: 2.33 goals per game, 20.3 shots to 13.7, seven scored in three. The caveat is that they give chances up too — 1.77 xG against per game in the league matches that carry the figure, and both teams have scored in all three. But those three were Udinese away, Napoli away and Genoa away. Parma have created 0.71 xG per game across the weighted season averages; they are not the side built to punish it.
Parma have one goal in three Serie A matches, 0.33 per game from 0.58 xG; Como have seven, 2.33 per game.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each; xG from the matches that carry it
| Metric | ComoHome | ParmaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 1.33 |
| xG created per game | 1.27 | 0.58 |
| Shots per game | 20.3 | 8.0 |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 0% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Four draws in the last eight competitive meetings and 1.50 goals per meeting, only one of them over 2.5; Como won the most recent 1-0 here, and the last three meetings were goalless at half-time.
3
Como
3
Draws
2
Parma
17 May 2026·Serie A
Como1–0Parma25 Oct 2025·Serie A
Parma0–0Como3 May 2025·Serie A
Parma0–1Como19 Oct 2024·Serie A
Como1–1Parma24 Feb 2024·Serie B
Como1–1Parma20 Oct 2023·Serie B
Parma2–1Como18 Mar 2023·Serie B
Como2–0Parma29 Oct 2022·Serie B
Parma1–0Como
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Match result
ComoSafer
Price 1.254/5Asian handicap
Como -1.5Riskier
Price 1.762/5Both teams to score
No
Price 1.573/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.423/51st-half goals
Under 1.5
Price 1.503/5
02Cards
Como barely get booked. Their three Serie A matches have produced 2.3 cards each, and Como themselves have taken 0.3 per game — one yellow in three matches. None of the three cleared 3.5 cards. Parma's three have averaged 3.7, two of them over 3.5, and Emanuele Valeri goes into this one a booking away from a ban.
Giuseppe Mucera takes charge. He has shown 3.33 yellows a game across his three matches this season and no red, almost exactly the Serie A average of 3.27. A match in which one side keeps the ball — Como's weighted season average is 62% possession — and the other defends its box tends to produce fouls in harmless areas rather than cards.
Mucera has shown 3.33 yellows a game in three matches this season and no red, right on the Serie A average of 3.27.
Sample: 2026/27 season, Mucera's 3 matches
Giuseppe Mucera
3 matches this season
league average
Como's three Serie A matches produced 2.3 cards apiece and none went over 3.5; Parma's produced 3.7 and two did.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
| Metric | ComoHome | ParmaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to the team per game | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 0% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Under 3.5
Price 2.122/5
03Corners
Corners are the most lopsided number in the fixture. Como have won 7.0 a game in the league and conceded 2.7; Parma have won 3.7 and conceded 5.0. Every one of Como's three league matches produced at least nine corners in total — nine against Genoa, nine at Napoli, eleven at Udinese. Parma's went nine, twelve and five.
The shape points the same way. Cuesta defends with a back five that clears rather than catches, and Como cross into it. The total, not the split, is where the value sits: 8.5 has been cleared in three of Como's three league matches and two of Parma's three.
All three of Como's Serie A matches cleared 8.5 corners; they win 7.0 a game and Parma concede 5.0.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
| Metric | ComoHome | ParmaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 7.0 | 3.7 |
| Corners conceded per game | 2.7 | 5.0 |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| Matches over 8.5 corners | 100% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Over 8.5
Price 1.703/5
04The numbers that matter
- 323
- Elo points between them
- A gap that size means the stronger side wins about two in three on neutral ground, before home advantage is counted.
- 1
- Parma goal in three Serie A matches
- They failed to score in two of the three and managed 0.25 xG in their only away trip, at Juventus.
- 7.0
- corners Como win per game
- Parma concede 5.0 a game from a back five, which is why the total is the line to look at.
- 0.3
- cards Como take per game
- One yellow in three league matches keeps the card total down even when the game is stretched late.
Serie A is three matchdays old, so every league rate here rests on three matches a side. They agree with the longer weighted season picture — Como 2.01 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game, Parma 0.70 and 1.23 — which is why we lean on them rather than hedge them.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Two missing creators for Parma, one long-term absence for Como, and an XI that has to be picked three days after a European night.
05Team news
Parma have played all season without Nicolussi Caviglia and Bernabé, and have three goals in five competitive matches.
ComoHome
Jayden AddaiRW
Achilles tendon rupture, out since February
Goals
Out
ParmaAway
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaCM
surgery on a pubic-region injury in July, targeted return in October
GoalsResult
OutAdrián BernabéCM
fitness problem, absent from the last matchday squad
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Checked against the club's most recent matchday squad list and Italian injury lists in the week of the match.
06Expected XI
Como's 4-2-3-1 is the XI that started the 4-1 at Genoa; Cuesta's 3-5-2 has Britschgi and Valeri as wing-backs.
ComoHome
Cesc Fàbregas
ParmaAway
Carlos Cuesta
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each formation line. Shirt numbers from the sides' most recent official team sheets.
07Shape and plan
A back five against Como's width
Cuesta defends with three centre-backs and two wing-backs, and it shows in the corner column: Parma have conceded 5.0 a game in the league because crosses get cleared rather than caught. Como win 7.0 a game and will aim at exactly that edge, with Couto and Valle pushing high.
Who carries the ball for Parma
With Nicolussi Caviglia and Bernabé both out, progression runs through Ordoñez and Keita, a pair built to screen rather than to create, with Fabbian the only midfielder who arrives in the box. Eight shots a game in the league is the consequence.
Three days after Europe
Fàbregas has Moise Kean pushing Douvikas and Jesús Rodríguez pushing Diao, so one or two changes are likely rather than a rebuilt side. A rebuilt side is how this call goes wrong, and it is the first thing to check when the sheet lands.
08Three duels
Nico Paz
Como · AM
The line-breaker between Parma's midfield screen and their back three; when the block is set, the ball goes through him.
Assane Diao
Como · RW
Como's most direct runner. When Parma's back three narrows, he is left one-against-one with a wing-back who has to defend the touchline alone.
Christian Ordoñez
Parma · CM
Has to screen the space in front of the back three and start the counter at the same time, with both of Parma's creators unavailable.
El Bilal Touré
Parma · ST
Parma's main shot-taker in a side averaging 8.0 shots a game in the league; he will see very little of the ball.
8.0 Parma shots per game in Serie A
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 45%chanceMost likely
Como control it and win comfortably
Parma sit in the back five and Como take twenty shots at it. The first goal arrives before the hour, Parma have to come out of their shape, and the second follows. Something like 2-0 — the scoreline that fits a side winning 7.0 corners a game and scoring 2.33.
- 28%chance
Parma take something
Parma have drawn 0-0 and 1-1 in this fixture before by conceding the ball and defending the width of the pitch. If Como rotate heavily and the finishing is off, the 1-1 Monza got at the Tardini is the shape of it.
- 27%chance
Como win, but only just
Three days after a European night the tempo is flat, Parma defend their box the way they did for 45 minutes at Juventus, and one set piece or one Nico Paz pass settles it. 1-0, which is exactly how the last meeting here finished.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Parma have scored one goal in three matches and travel to a side that has scored seven. The gap is 323 Elo points, and the Sinigaglia is where Como collect.
10The verdict
Como win it; the margin is the only question
We make it Como 72%, the draw 20%, Parma 8%. The market sits at 76/17/8, so we are within a few points everywhere, and the small step down on Como is deliberate: this is the week of their first Champions League home tie, Fàbregas has described the squad as limited for two competitions, and Monday comes three days after Wednesday night. Nothing else argues for Parma. Cuesta's side is 13 wins, 13 draws and 19 defeats from 45 matches since June 2025, carries one goal and 0.58 xG per game from three league matches, and has played the whole season without Nicolussi Caviglia and Bernabé, the two midfielders who moved the ball forward. Como's own absence, Addai, predates this run entirely and has cost them nothing — two wins and a draw without him. Como 2-0.
What would change our mind
- If Fàbregas makes four or more changes after the European tie, drop the -1.5 handicap and keep the straight win.
- If Nicolussi Caviglia is passed fit earlier than expected, Parma's chance of scoring rises and the both-teams-to-score lean goes.
- If the forecast turns wet and the surface slows, soften the corners lean before anything else.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Como vs Parma?
- Como. They have seven points from three Serie A matches (W2 D1) to Parma's one (D1 L2), and Elo separates them by 323 points, 1891 to 1568. We make it Como 72%, the draw 20%, Parma 8%; the market is close at 76/17/8.
- What is the predicted score for Como vs Parma?
- Como 2-0. Como have scored 2.33 goals per game in Serie A this season and Parma 0.33, with Parma failing to score in two of their three matches and managing 0.25 xG in their only away trip, at Juventus.
- Who is missing for Como and Parma?
- Como are without Jayden Addai (Achilles tendon rupture), an absence that predates their unbeaten start. Parma are without Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, who had surgery on a pubic-region injury in July and is targeted to return in October, and Adrián Bernabé.
- What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
- The last eight competitive meetings brought two Como wins, two Parma wins and four draws, at 1.50 goals per meeting, with only one clearing 2.5 goals. Como won the most recent one 1-0 at the Sinigaglia, and the last three meetings were goalless at half-time.
- What are the probable line-ups for Como vs Parma?
- Como are expected in a 4-2-3-1: Butez; Couto, Ramón, Chalobah, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Diao, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas. Parma are expected in a 3-5-2: Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos; Britschgi, Fabbian, Keita, Ordoñez, Valeri; Touré, Romero.
Written 10 Sept 2026, 13:20 · Updated 10 Sept 2026, 13:20 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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