St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
Sat 12 Sept · 19:30Energizer Park, St. Louis
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Home side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- St. Louis City to win. Unbeaten in 14 league matches, at home to a side with one win in 12. We make it 48% against the market's 46%.
- The one stat
- Minnesota have conceded 26 goals in 12 away league matches, 2.17 a trip. St. Louis concede 1.27 at home.
- The risk
- This is St. Louis's third match in seven days after Vancouver and Portland, and Minnesota have won six of the seven meetings between the clubs.
- The calls
- Safer: St. Louis City or draw at 1.33. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 1.54. Three more leans on the board.
The situation
Every St. Louis City vs Minnesota United prediction starts in the same awkward place: Minnesota have won six of the seven competitive meetings, and St. Louis have beaten them once, back in 2023. Every one of those matches was played under a coach neither club now employs. Yoann Damet took the St. Louis job on 16 December 2025. Cameron Knowles was appointed in Minnesota on 12 January 2026, after Eric Ramsay left for West Bromwich Albion. The teams that walk out at Energizer Park are not the teams in that record.
Damet's side are sixth with 38 points from 24 matches (W10 D8 L6) and have not lost in 14 Major League Soccer matches (W9 D5), 29 scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 2.25 points per game from their last eight competitive matches (W5 D3 L0). Neither club is in crisis: Minnesota's two straight defeats stop short of it and nobody is briefing against Knowles. But the Loons are 11th on 29 points from 24 (W7 D8 L9) with one win in their last 12 league matches (W1 D5 L6), and Knowles put the season in one line this week - the road is running out.
What keeps this honest is the calendar. St. Louis played at Vancouver on 6 September and at Portland on 10 September; Saturday is their third match in seven days and their second flight back across the country. Minnesota lost at home to Dallas on Thursday and have the shorter journey. Both squads are running on fumes, and tired squads concede.
The markets
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw
St. Louis have not lost in 14 league matches (W9 D5) and are unbeaten in eight at home (W5 D3); we make the home side or draw 74% against the 75% the price implies, and take the shorter route to it.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsHead-to-head
Total goals
Over 2.5
St. Louis's last five league matches averaged 3.8 goals and Minnesota's 5.4, with both teams scoring in all ten; we make it 66% against the 61% in the price.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
St. Louis CityPrice 2.04
3/5Our 48% against the market's 46%: a side unbeaten in 14 league matches conceding 1.27 at home against one that has won once in 12 and concedes 2.17 away.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsProbable XIs
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.46
4/5Both teams have scored in every one of the last five league matches for each club, in 11 of St. Louis's 14 and 10 of Minnesota's 12; we make it 77% against the 63% in the price.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Cards
Total cards
Over 4.5Price 1.57
2/5St. Louis league matches average 5.4 cards and Minnesota's 4.0, and Montero shows 4.46 yellows a match against a 4.14 league average - a lean rather than a call, because the two team figures straddle the line.
EvidenceRefereeDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 19:30 St. Louis time
- Saturday
- Referee
- Ricardo Montero
- 4.46 yellows per league match this season
- Weather
- 29 C, dry
- 64% humidity, almost no wind
- Rest
- 2 days each
- St. Louis were at Portland, Minnesota hosted Dallas
- Table
- 6th vs 11th
- Minnesota sit one point off the playoff line with 10 to play
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals lines are the strongest read on this match, why the cards number is closer than the referee suggests, and what the corner counts do not tell you.
01Goals
Start with the defence that is broken. Minnesota have conceded 26 goals in 12 away league matches this season, 2.17 a trip, and 21 in their last 12 league games at 1.75 a match. Only one of those 12 ended in a clean sheet. St. Louis concede 1.07 per league match and 1.27 at home, and have kept three clean sheets in 14. That is the gap this preview is built on, and it is bigger than the nine points between the clubs.
The attack is not Minnesota's problem. They have scored 14 goals in their last five league matches - four at Portland, three against Orlando, five at San Jose - and their league xG of 1.78 per game is higher than St. Louis's 1.62. What they cannot do is stop the other side: 1.32 xG conceded per game against 1.75 goals actually conceded says a defence that is being punished harder than the chances deserve, and that is a run which usually softens rather than reverses on a warm night with two days' rest.
So both goals lines lean the same way. Both teams have scored in each of the last five league matches for both clubs, and in 11 of St. Louis's 14 and 10 of Minnesota's 12. Those ten matches averaged 3.8 goals for St. Louis and 5.4 for Minnesota. The league runs at 3.21 goals a game with 62% over 2.5; nothing in either side's numbers argues for less than that here.
Minnesota concede 2.17 goals per away league match this season against St. Louis's 1.27 at home - a difference of nearly a goal a game.
Sample: Major League Soccer 2026: last 14 St. Louis, last 12 Minnesota; splits are this season's full home and away records
| Metric | St. Louis CityHome | Minnesota United FCAway |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.291.91 at home | 0.671.42 away |
| Goals scored per game | 2.071.91 at home | 1.581.92 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.071.27 at home | 1.752.17 away |
| xG created per game | 1.62 | 1.78 |
| xG conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% |
| Ahead at half-time | 71% | 17% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Minnesota have out-created their opponents in five of these six matches and lost or drawn five of them; the finishing at both ends is the story.
Sample: last 6 league matches with xG recorded, 2026 season
St. Louis CityHome
avg xG 1.63 · avg xGA 0.96
2–2D
Portland Timbers (A)
3–3D
FC Dallas (H)
2–1W
Houston Dynamo (H)
1–1D
Sporting Kansas City (A)
1–3W
San Jose Earthquakes (A)
1–1D
Real Salt Lake (H)
Minnesota United FCAway
avg xG 2.16 · avg xGA 1.72
5–4L
Portland Timbers (A)
3–3D
Orlando City SC (H)
1–5W
San Jose Earthquakes (A)
1–2L
Atlanta United FC (H)
1–1D
Real Salt Lake (A)
1–1D
San Diego (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Source: Match-by-match xG for this season's league fixtures
Minnesota have won six of the seven competitive meetings and there has never been a draw, but all seven came before either current coach arrived, and six of the seven cleared 2.5 goals.
1
St. Louis City
0
Draws
6
Minnesota United FC
27 Jul 2025·Major League Soccer
St. Louis City1–2Minnesota United FC21 May 2025·US Open Cup
Minnesota United FC3–2St. Louis City18 May 2025·Major League Soccer
Minnesota United FC3–0St. Louis City20 Oct 2024·Major League Soccer
Minnesota United FC4–1St. Louis City15 Sept 2024·Major League Soccer
St. Louis City1–3Minnesota United FC24 Sept 2023·Major League Soccer
Minnesota United FC1–2St. Louis City2 Apr 2023·Major League Soccer
St. Louis City0–1Minnesota United FC
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
St. Louis City or drawSafer
Price 1.334/5Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 1.543/5Match result
St. Louis City
Price 2.043/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.464/5
02Cards
St. Louis are the busier side for the referee. Their 14 league matches have produced 5.4 cards each, 2.8 to them and 2.6 to opponents, and ten of the 14 cleared 3.5. Minnesota's 12 league matches have produced 4.0 a game, an even 2.0 each way, with seven of 12 over 3.5. Average the two and you land just above the 4.5 line, which is exactly where the price sits.
Ricardo Montero has the whistle. He has averaged 4.46 yellows per league match across 11 matches this season, above the 4.14 league average, with 0.18 reds, and his matches see 24.64 fouls against a league average of 23.86. He is a shade stricter than the norm rather than a card-waver, and the Loons' low block with five defenders invites the tactical fouls that get booked. It is a lean, not a call.
Montero shows 4.46 yellows per league match this season against a 4.14 league average, in matches averaging 24.64 fouls.
Sample: Major League Soccer 2026, 11 matches
Ricardo Montero
11 matches this season
league average
St. Louis matches average 5.4 cards to Minnesota's 4.0; ten of St. Louis's 14 league games cleared 3.5 cards.
Sample: Major League Soccer 2026: 14 St. Louis matches, 12 Minnesota matches with card data
| Metric | St. Louis CityHome | Minnesota United FCAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Cards against per game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Total cards per match | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71% | 58% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 4.5
Price 1.572/5
03Corners
The corner counts cut against the run of play, which is why they stay in this chapter and off the board. Minnesota win 6.1 corners a league match to St. Louis's 4.4, and concede only 4.2 to St. Louis's 5.5. That is not a sign that Minnesota are the better side; it is what a counter-attacking team that shoots from wide areas and a home team that invites pressure both look like on a corner sheet.
The totals land in the same place regardless: 9.9 corners in a St. Louis league match, 10.2 in a Minnesota one, against a league average of 9.93. Nine of St. Louis's 14 cleared 9.5, only five of Minnesota's 12 did. There is no edge here worth writing down.
Minnesota win more corners than St. Louis, 6.1 to 4.4, yet both sides' matches land within a corner of the 9.93 league average.
Sample: Major League Soccer 2026: 14 St. Louis matches, 12 Minnesota matches with corner data
| Metric | St. Louis CityHome | Minnesota United FCAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for per game | 4.4 | 6.1 |
| Corners against per game | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 64% | 42% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 14
- league matches unbeaten for St. Louis
- W9 D5, 29 scored and 15 conceded. No side in the Western Conference top six is harder to beat right now.
- 1
- Minnesota wins in 12 league matches
- W1 D5 L6 at 0.67 points per game. Their season has been drawn or lost, rarely won.
- 2.17
- goals Minnesota concede per away match
- 26 in 12 away league games. St. Louis have scored 21 in 11 at home.
- 5.4
- goals per game in Minnesota's last five
- 14 scored, 13 conceded. Every one of those five saw both teams score.
One number on this page is ours rather than a published figure. The rest are counted from this season's league matches.
Part two
Who plays, and how
St. Louis are missing nobody who has started this run. Minnesota are missing a forward whose absence has not dented their scoring - the problem is behind him.
05Team news
Five St. Louis absentees, none of them a starter during the 14-match unbeaten run; Minnesota's two out are a wide forward and a squad midfielder.
St. Louis CityHome
Kyle HiebertCB
hip
Result
OutCelio PompeuMF
knee
Goals
OutAlexandru MatanMF
midweek knock
Goals
DoubtfulPalmer AultFW
ankle
Goals
OutBrendan McSorleyFW
short of match fitness
Goals
Out
Minnesota United FCAway
Bongokuhle HlongwaneFW
knee
Goals
OutPeter StroudMF
muscle
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and league availability reports published this week; no suspensions on either side, though Minnesota carry four players a booking from one.
06Expected XI
Both coaches are expected to start with a back three; Damet can restore Carlo Holse behind Navarro and Jeong, Knowles can bring Chancalay back in.
St. Louis CityHome
Yoann Damet
Minnesota United FCAway
Cameron Knowles
Probable XIs from published predicted-lineup coverage this week, ordered goalkeeper first then each line left to right.
07Shape and plan
The block, and what comes after it
Knowles sets Minnesota in a mid-to-low block with five across the back and turns turnovers into runs down the channels. St. Louis have seen that film: 67% possession against Real Salt Lake, 65% against Colorado, and a 1-1 and a 1-0 to show for them. Patience is not the issue; the counter is. Minnesota scored four at Portland and five at San Jose from exactly this shape.
First halves decide St. Louis matches
St. Louis have led at half-time in 10 of their 14 league matches and have not trailed at the break in any of them. Minnesota have been behind at half-time in six of 12 and ahead in two. St. Louis score 1.09 goals before the interval and concede 0.45; Minnesota score 0.59 and concede 0.88. If the opening goal goes the home way, Minnesota's block has to come out, and that is when they ship goals.
Late legs
Both squads are two days off a match. St. Louis's goals are front-loaded - a 2.14 first-half goals rate against 1.71 after the break - while Minnesota do their damage late, 2.81 in second halves against 1.57 before them. Three matches in seven days for the hosts and a long flight home from Portland make a scrappy, stretched final half-hour the likeliest shape of the night.
Wide areas and the corner sheet
Minnesota win 6.1 corners a league match to St. Louis's 4.4 because they shoot from wide and crowd the box on the break. St. Louis concede 5.5. It makes the corner count misleading as a measure of control - St. Louis out-shoot opponents 13.2 to 11.9 in the league - but it is a genuine route to a Minnesota goal, and the reason the clean-sheet lines stay off the board.
08Three duels
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City · FW
The designated-player signing has given Damet a centre-forward who attacks the first ball. He scored 34 seconds into the draw at Portland, the fastest goal in the club's history, and Minnesota have conceded first in six of their last 12 league matches.
Scored after 34 seconds at Portland
Daniel Edelman
St. Louis City · CM
Signed from New York in January and the man who sets the height of the St. Louis press. Against a side that lives on turnovers, whether he wins the second ball in midfield decides how often Minnesota get to run.
Timo Baumgartl
St. Louis City · CB
The centre of the back three and the one who has to cover the channel Yeboah attacks. St. Louis have conceded 1.07 a league game with him organising; every Minnesota goal here starts with a ball in behind him.
Joaquin Pereyra
Minnesota United FC · MF
Minnesota's connection between the block and the counter. He drifts inside to make overloads and plays the final pass; take him out of the game and the Loons' 1.78 xG a match has nowhere to come from.
Kelvin Yeboah
Minnesota United FC · FW
Their leading scorer and the reason the away goals keep coming even in defeat - Minnesota have scored 14 in their last five league matches. He needs one chance against a defence that will be pushed high.
Minnesota's leading scorer this season
Michael Boxall
Minnesota United FC · CB
The experience in a back three conceding 2.17 a game on the road. If Minnesota are to hold the line long enough for the counter to matter, he has to win the first contact with Navarro.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 48%chanceMost likely
St. Louis go first and Minnesota have to come out
The pattern of 10 of St. Louis's 14 league matches: they lead at the break, Minnesota abandon the low block, and space behind the wing-backs appears. Minnesota get one back, but 2.17 conceded per away trip is not fixed on two days' rest. A 2-1 or 3-1 home win.
- 26%chance
The block holds and the legs go
St. Louis's third match in seven days shows. They keep the ball, Minnesota sit in and break, and it finishes 1-1 or 2-2. St. Louis have drawn five of their last 14 league matches and eight in 24; Minnesota five of their last 12. Live, but not the call.
- 26%chance
Minnesota's counter lands the way it did at Portland and San Jose
Minnesota out-created opponents in five of their last six league matches and scored four at Portland, five at San Jose. Against a tired home side that pushes wing-backs high, two clean breaks is all it takes. Anything from 1-2 to 2-3.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Six wins in seven meetings belong to two squads that no longer exist. What exists now is a side unbeaten in 14 against one that has conceded 26 goals on the road.
10The verdict
St. Louis win an open one, 2-1
St. Louis City are the market favourite at 2.04 with neither side priced under 2.00, and nothing in the crisis, coach or availability checks argues against them: they are unbeaten in 14 league matches, their five absentees have not started during that run, and Minnesota's two are a wide forward whose team has still scored 14 in five and a squad midfielder. We make it 48% St. Louis, 26% the draw, 26% Minnesota, against a market that says 46-25-29 - no gap worth explaining, which is itself the point. The case is one number: 26 goals conceded in 12 away league matches, 2.17 a trip, against a home side that concedes 1.27 and has led at half-time in 10 of 14. The case against is real and is why the confidence stops at 3: this is St. Louis's third match in seven days after Vancouver and Portland, and Minnesota out-created their opponents in five of their last six. So the safer call is the double chance rather than the win, and the riskier call is the goals line rather than a handicap - both sides have seen both teams score in every one of their last five league matches, at 3.8 and 5.4 goals a game.
What would change our mind
- If Navarro is left out after Thursday's trip, drop the win lean and keep only the double chance and over 2.5.
- If Minnesota name a back five with Romero alongside Boxall and Duggan, the goals line is the one to trust, not the margin.
- If rain arrives and the 29 C forecast breaks, tempo drops and over 2.5 gets harder.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United?
- St. Louis City. They are sixth on 38 points from 24 matches and unbeaten in their last 14 league matches (W9 D5), while Minnesota are 11th on 29 points from 24 and have won one of their last 12 league games. The market prices St. Louis at 2.04, the draw at 3.69 and Minnesota at 3.20. We make it 48% St. Louis, 26% draw, 26% Minnesota.
- What is the predicted score?
- St. Louis City 2-1 Minnesota United FC. Both sides have seen both teams score in every one of their last five league matches, St. Louis average 2.07 goals a game in the league and Minnesota concede 2.17 per away trip. That points to a home win in a match that clears 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record?
- Minnesota have won six of the seven competitive meetings, St. Louis one, with no draws and 3.43 goals per meeting. But all seven were played before Yoann Damet and Cameron Knowles took charge of the clubs, so the record describes two squads that no longer exist.
- Who is out for St. Louis City and Minnesota United?
- St. Louis are without Kyle Hiebert (hip), Celio Pompeu (knee), Palmer Ault (ankle) and Brendan McSorley, with Alexandru Matan a doubt after a midweek knock. Minnesota are missing Bongokuhle Hlongwane (knee) and Peter Stroud (muscle). None of the five St. Louis absentees has started regularly during the 14-match unbeaten run.
- Who is the referee?
- Ricardo Montero. He has shown 4.46 yellow cards per match across 11 Major League Soccer matches this season, above the 4.14 league average, with 0.18 reds per game. St. Louis matches average 5.4 cards, Minnesota's 4.0.
Written 12 Sept 2026, 01:20 · Updated 12 Sept 2026, 01:20 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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