Who is favourite for Freiburg vs Gladbach?

Freiburg, heavily. They are 153 rating points clear before home advantage is counted, on five straight competitive wins, while Gladbach have no points from two matches and seven goals conceded. We make it Freiburg 60%, draw 22%, Gladbach 18%; the market has 54-24-22.

What is the predicted score?

SC Freiburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach. Freiburg have scored 3.40 goals a game across their last five competitive matches and 4.00 in their last two at home; Gladbach have conceded 3.50 a game in the Bundesliga this season.

What is the head-to-head record?

In the last eight competitive meetings Freiburg have won four and drawn four. Gladbach have not won any of them. Those eight produced 2.38 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in four and five going over 2.5 goals.

Who is out for Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Nicolas Kühn suffered a muscle tear against Elversberg, confirmed on 8 September. Jens Castrop is out after shoulder surgery, Enzo Leopold faces months out, and both reserve right-backs, Yukhym Konoplya and Daiki Hashioka, are injured, so Joe Scally must play.

Is Eugen Polanski under pressure?

Yes, though the club backed him publicly this week. Gladbach are bottom of the pile on no points with seven conceded, and his overall record is 11 wins from 36 matches. Sporting director Rouven Schröder said the priority was to stay clear-headed.

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach preview: floodlit stadium packed with supporters at night

FootballBundesliga — Round 3

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Sat 12 Sept · 15:30Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg

AI deep previewGenerated 9 Sept 2026match#bundesliga#matchday-3#europa-park-stadion

SC FreiburgHome

Borussia MönchengladbachAway

Home side first and left in every table.

In short

The call: Freiburg to win comfortably, 3-1. We make them 60%, the draw 22%, Gladbach 18%.
The one stat: Gladbach have not beaten Freiburg in eight competitive meetings: four Freiburg wins, four draws.
The risk: Freiburg's league sample is two matches. The weighted season numbers, which include last term, are far more ordinary.
The calls: Safer: Freiburg or the draw at 1.23. Riskier: Freiburg on the -1 handicap at 2.22. Four more leans on the board.

The situation

Two clubs at opposite ends of the same short season. Freiburg have won all five competitive matches they have played, 17 goals scored and four conceded, and sit second on six points with a goal difference of plus four. They did it after selling their two most valuable midfielders in the summer, which is the part that says most about Julian Schuster's side: the structure survived the sales.

Gladbach have no points. Beaten 3-0 at Leipzig, then 4-3 at home by promoted Elversberg after leading 3-1, they have conceded seven in two matches and sit 17th. Eugen Polanski was backed publicly this week rather than sacked, and the supporters' protests this season have been aimed at the stadium's new sponsor name rather than at him, but the club is one bad afternoon from a different conversation.

Both have had a full week off: no European tie, no cup, and no international break, which the calendar moved to late September this year. So this is a rested best-versus-worst, and the fixture history is unusually one-sided in the home side's favour.

The markets

Safer call

Double chance

SC Freiburg or draw

1.23Confidence 4/5

Gladbach have not beaten Freiburg in eight competitive meetings and have taken no points from their last ten Bundesliga away matches: we give them 18% against the market's 22%.

EvidenceHead-to-head Goals table

Riskier call

Asian handicap -1

SC Freiburg

2.22Confidence 3/5

Freiburg score 4.00 a game in their two home matches this season and Gladbach concede 3.50 a game in the league; our 60% for a home win is six points above the market.

EvidenceGoals table Team news

Result & goals

Total goals
Over 2.5Price 1.60
4/5
Four of Freiburg's five competitive matches and all three of Gladbach's have gone over 2.5, and the league is running at 78%. The market's 59% is the number we disagree with most.
EvidenceGoals table
Total goals
Over 3.5Price 2.42
3/5
Freiburg's five matches have averaged 4.2 goals between the sides and Gladbach's three have averaged 5.0, against a league average of 3.94 and a market price implying 39%.
EvidenceGoals table
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.56
3/5
Gladbach have scored in all three competitive matches this season and Freiburg have kept one clean sheet in five; both of Freiburg's home matches had goals at each end.
EvidenceGoals table Head-to-head

Corners

Total corners
Over 9.5Price 1.81
3/5
Gladbach's matches have averaged 13.0 corners between the sides and Freiburg's 10.0, against a league average of 11.39 and 67% of matches clearing this line.
EvidenceCorners

Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.

Match sheet

Kick-off: 15:30 Freiburg time; Saturday
Weather: 24 °C, clear; light north-westerly, no rain
Rest: 7 days vs 7; neither side played midweek
Table: 2nd vs 17th; six points against none
Form: 5 wins vs 2 defeats; Freiburg have won every competitive match this season

Part one

Analysis

Where the goals come from, why the corner count runs high, and how much of this to trust on a two-match league sample.

01Goals

The Bundesliga samples here are two matches each, so we argue from this season's competitive football and say so. Freiburg have scored 3.40 and conceded 0.80 per game across five matches, with four of the five going over 2.5 goals. At home they have been more extreme still: eight goals in two matches, 4.00 a game, both of them over 2.5 and both with goals at each end.

Gladbach are the mirror. Three competitive matches, 2.67 scored and 2.33 conceded, all three over 2.5. In the Bundesliga alone they have conceded 3.50 a game. They also, oddly, score: three goals against Elversberg, five in the cup, eight in three. This is not a side that shuts a game down, in either direction.

That pushes the total up and it pushes both teams to score up with it. The league is running at 3.94 goals a match this season and 78% of matches have gone over 2.5. The market prices over 2.5 at 1.60, which is 59%. Everything we can count says higher. We make the result Freiburg 60%, the draw 22%, Gladbach 18%, against a market of 54-24-22.

Freiburg have scored 3.40 goals a game this season and conceded 0.80; Gladbach have conceded 2.33.

Sample: this season's competitive matches: 5 Freiburg, 3 Gladbach (league samples are under four)

Metric	SC FreiburgHome	Borussia MönchengladbachAway
Goals scored per game	3.44.0 at home	2.672.5 away
Goals conceded per game	0.81.0 at home	2.331.5 away
Both teams scored	80%	33%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	100%
Clean sheets	20%	33%

Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.

Gladbach have not beaten Freiburg in the last eight competitive meetings: four Freiburg wins, four draws, 2.38 goals a meeting.

SC Freiburg

Draws

Borussia Mönchengladbach

22 Feb 2026·Bundesliga
SC Freiburg2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
5 Oct 2025·Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Freiburg
12 Apr 2025·Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2SC Freiburg
30 Nov 2024·Bundesliga
SC Freiburg3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
30 Mar 2024·Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3SC Freiburg
4 Nov 2023·Bundesliga
SC Freiburg3–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
4 Mar 2023·Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Freiburg
11 Sept 2022·Bundesliga
SC Freiburg0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach

Home side listed first. Winner in bold.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Double chance
SC Freiburg or drawSafer
Price 1.234/5
Asian handicap -1
SC FreiburgRiskier
Price 2.223/5
Total goals
Over 2.5
Price 1.604/5
Total goals
Over 3.5
Price 2.423/5
Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.563/5

02Corners

Gladbach take a lot of corners and win nothing with them, which is exactly the profile of a side that is behind and pushing. They have won 9.0 a game across three competitive matches this season and 9.5 in the two Bundesliga games; they took 13 against Elversberg and lost anyway.

Freiburg's matches have run at 10.0 corners between the sides across all five. The league sits at 11.39 a match with 67% clearing 9.5. Put a chasing Gladbach in front of a Freiburg side that concedes only 3.2 corners a game and the count still gets there: the away side supplies it.

Gladbach's matches have produced 13.0 corners between the sides this season, Freiburg's 10.0, against a league average of 11.39.

Sample: this season's competitive matches: 5 Freiburg, 3 Gladbach (league samples are under four)

Metric	SC FreiburgHome	Borussia MönchengladbachAway
Corners for per game	6.8	9.0
Corners against per game	3.2	4.0
Corners per match, both sides	10.0	13.0
Over 9.5 corners	60%	67%

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Total corners
Over 9.5
Price 1.813/5

03The numbers that matter

0 of 8
Gladbach wins in this fixture: Four Freiburg wins and four draws in the last eight competitive meetings. The pattern is old and it is still running.; 0.4
Gladbach points per away league match: Their last ten Bundesliga away matches: no wins, four draws, six defeats, seven scored and twenty conceded.; 5
straight competitive wins for Freiburg: Seventeen scored, four conceded. Two of those wins came at home, by an aggregate of 8-2.; 153
rating points between the sides: 1849 to 1696 on our cross-continental scale, before home advantage worth another 60 to 80 is added.

Two caveats worth stating. The league-only samples are two matches per side, so every rate above counts this season's cup and European football too. And the league's 3.94 goals a match comes from only eighteen matches played so far.

Part two

Who plays, and how

Gladbach have lost their newest signing and both reserve right-backs; Freiburg are missing one winger and little else.

04Team news

Gladbach are down to one fit right-back: Konoplya and Hashioka are both injured, so Scally has to play.

SC FreiburgHome

Florent MuslijaLW
cruciate ligament, back around late December
Goals
Out
Patrick OsterhageDM
muscle injury, one to two weeks
Result
Doubtful
Rihito YamamotoDM
building match fitness
Result
Doubtful

Borussia MönchengladbachAway

Nicolas KühnLW
torn muscle bundle, several weeks
Goals
Out
Jens CastropCM
shoulder surgery
Result
Out
Enzo LeopoldCM
long-term, months expected
Result
Out
Yukhym KonoplyaRB
injured, in rehab training
Result
Out
Daiki HashiokaRB
injured
Result
Out
Zento UnoCM
injured
Result
Out

Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Kühn's diagnosis was announced on 8 September. Both clubs hold their pre-match media duties later in the week, so nothing here is a confirmed squad.

05Expected XI

Two 4-2-3-1 shapes; Backhaus keeps for Freiburg with Atubolu out on loan, and Itakura's place is the one open question.

SC FreiburgHome

Julian Schuster

4-2-3-1Probable

Borussia MönchengladbachAway

Eugen Polanski

4-2-3-1Probable

Goalkeeper first, then each line. German predicted-lineup sources published 7 and 8 September differ on one place: Itakura may give way to Jan Leszczynski after his error against Elversberg.

06Shape and plan

A back four that has already leaked seven

Gladbach's two Bundesliga matches have produced 3.50 goals conceded per game and an xG against of 3.13. Against Elversberg they led 3-1 and lost 4-3. Freiburg score 4.00 a game at home this season. That is the match in one line, and it is why the handicap rather than the plain result is the push.

Freiburg without their two best midfielders

Manzambi and Röhl were sold in the summer and the side has still won five out of five, conceding 0.66 xG a game. Engelhardt and Makengo have taken the load, and Maximilian Eggestein has provided the goals from deep, including the winner at Paderborn.

Scally has no cover

With Konoplya and Hashioka both out, Gladbach's only recognised right-back has to play ninety minutes against Yuito Suzuki, who scored a hat-trick against Werder Bremen on the opening weekend. If Scally goes, the shape goes with him.

Corners as a symptom

Gladbach won thirteen corners against Elversberg and lost. They win 9.0 a game and convert almost none of them, because most arrive while chasing. Expect the same shape here: Freiburg ahead, Gladbach with the ball in the wrong areas, and a corner count that climbs past the line.

07Three duels

Yuito Suzuki

SC Freiburg · LW

Freiburg's most direct runner, attacking a right-back with no cover behind him.

hat-trick against Werder Bremen on matchday one

Maximilian Eggestein

SC Freiburg · DM

The deep midfielder who has become a scorer: he settled the win at Paderborn and controls the tempo Freiburg want.

Tim Kleindienst

Borussia Mönchengladbach · ST

The captain and the away side's only reliable route to a goal, against a defence conceding 0.80 a game.

Kevin Stöger

Borussia Mönchengladbach · LW

Gladbach's set-piece taker, which matters more than usual for a side that wins nine corners a game and needs one to land.

Part three

The call

Our verdict: how the afternoon most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.

08How it could go

Three ways this match goes

Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first

60%chanceMost likely
Freiburg win by two or more
The base case. Freiburg have scored 4.00 a game in their two home matches this season and Gladbach have conceded 3.50 a game in the league. Gladbach get a goal, because they have scored in every competitive match this season, but the margin is comfortable and the total is high.
22%chance
Gladbach hang on for a point
Four of the last eight meetings ended level, three of them goalless or nearly so. Polanski drops into a back five, Kleindienst holds the ball up, and Freiburg's 20% clean-sheet rate this season stops being the story. It is the shape that has saved Gladbach in this fixture before.
18%chance
The upset
Gladbach have not beaten Freiburg in eight attempts and have taken no points from their last ten Bundesliga away matches. It needs an early goal and a Freiburg side that has conceded four all season to have an off day. Possible, not probable.

The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.

Freiburg have won five out of five and Gladbach have conceded seven in two. The last eight meetings have brought Gladbach four draws and four defeats. The margin, not the winner, is the question.

DeepPreviews analysis desk

09The verdict

Freiburg by two, with goals at both ends

We make it Freiburg 60%, the draw 22%, Gladbach 18%, against a market of 54-24-22. The six-point step comes from three checks. The crisis check: Gladbach have no points, seven conceded in two matches, a coach publicly backed rather than trusted, and supporter protests running since the opening weekend, while Freiburg have won every competitive match they have played. The coach check: Julian Schuster has 48 wins from 96 matches and a structure that survived the sale of two first-choice midfielders; Eugen Polanski has 11 wins in 36 and has not fixed a defence that was fragile last season either. The player check: Gladbach have lost their newest signing to a muscle tear and both reserve right-backs, so Joe Scally must play ninety minutes against Yuito Suzuki. What keeps this at 3-1 rather than a shutout is that Gladbach do score, in every competitive match this season.

SC Freiburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

What would change our mind

If Polanski names a back five, drop the handicap and the goals lines with it.
If Osterhage is passed fit, Freiburg's midfield gets a further upgrade and the -1 strengthens.
If Kleindienst is late-listed as a doubt, both teams to score is the first lean to go.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Freiburg vs Gladbach?: Freiburg, heavily. They are 153 rating points clear before home advantage is counted, on five straight competitive wins, while Gladbach have no points from two matches and seven goals conceded. We make it Freiburg 60%, draw 22%, Gladbach 18%; the market has 54-24-22.
What is the predicted score?: SC Freiburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach. Freiburg have scored 3.40 goals a game across their last five competitive matches and 4.00 in their last two at home; Gladbach have conceded 3.50 a game in the Bundesliga this season.
What is the head-to-head record?: In the last eight competitive meetings Freiburg have won four and drawn four. Gladbach have not won any of them. Those eight produced 2.38 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in four and five going over 2.5 goals.
Who is out for Borussia Mönchengladbach?: Nicolas Kühn suffered a muscle tear against Elversberg, confirmed on 8 September. Jens Castrop is out after shoulder surgery, Enzo Leopold faces months out, and both reserve right-backs, Yukhym Konoplya and Daiki Hashioka, are injured, so Joe Scally must play.
Is Eugen Polanski under pressure?: Yes, though the club backed him publicly this week. Gladbach are bottom of the pile on no points with seven conceded, and his overall record is 11 wins from 36 matches. Sporting director Rouven Schröder said the priority was to stay clear-headed.

Written 9 Sept 2026, 12:45 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 12:45 UTC.

AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.