VfB Stuttgart vs Viking

Viking have never been here before. A 5-3 aggregate win over Dinamo Zagreb in the play-off put the Stavanger club into the Champions League league phase for the first time in their history, and the reward is a Wednesday night in Stuttgart. The market is blunt about it: 1.24 the home win, 11.05 the away win, 6.51 the draw.

Stuttgart come in warm and leaky at the same time. Three competitive matches this season have brought nine goals scored and six conceded: 4-0 away at Hansa Rostock in the cup, 1-5 at Bayern Munich, then 4-1 at home to Koln on Friday. One clean sheet in three, both teams scoring in two of three, and every one of the three finishing over 2.5 goals. Fabian Bredlow keeps the gloves with first-choice keeper Dennis Seimen sidelined.

Viking are a better side than the price suggests. Thirteen competitive matches this season have produced eight wins, three draws and two defeats, 2.08 points per game, and they are unbeaten in four after Friday's 1-1 draw at Sandefjord left them second in the Eliteserien. They are not a side that gets blown away: they took four points off Dinamo Zagreb, drawing 2-2 in Croatia and winning 3-1 at home. They are also a side that concedes: 16 goals in those 13 matches, one clean sheet.

This should be a busy night. Stuttgart have scored three or more in two of their three competitive matches and conceded in all three; Viking have both scored and conceded in 11 of 13. Put those two habits in the same stadium and the total goals line is the least contentious thing on the board.

The interesting argument is the margin. Viking's away record this season is honest rather than good: eight away competitive matches, three wins, three draws, two defeats, 1.50 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game, and they are winless in their last three on the road. Their two Champions League matches came against a Dinamo Zagreb side that out-shot them 43-19 across the tie. They kept scoring anyway, which is the case for backing both teams to score, and they kept conceding, which is the case against the draw.

Stuttgart's only home outing this season was the 4-1 over Koln, four goals from 22 shots with 58% of the ball. Their weighted season averages put them at 16.50 shots and 6.43 on target per game. Viking face 15.8 shots per game across their 13 competitive matches and faced 21.5 per game in the two Champions League ties. That volume, at this level, gets punished.

Viking are the more heavily booked side and the shape of the tie points the same way. Across 13 competitive matches they average 2.4 yellows a game and their matches average 4.7 cards, over 3.5 in 10 of the 13. Stuttgart's three competitive matches have been quieter: 1.7 for, 1.7 against, 3.3 per match, over 3.5 in two of three.

A side defending a deficit against a possession team commits the tactical fouls, and Viking have the fouls in them already: 11.79 per game on weighted season averages against Stuttgart's 10.36. Add a referee making his league-phase debut who books at 4.51 a game across his career and the total-cards line looks low rather than high.

Corners are the one count where both sides pull in the same direction. All three of Stuttgart's competitive matches this season have gone past 9.5 corners, at 14.0 per match, with 7.0 won and 7.0 conceded. Viking's 13 competitive matches average 12.3, over 9.5 in 10 of them, with 7.1 won and 5.2 conceded.

Neither number is an accident. Stuttgart attack with wing-backs and cross from deep; Viking press high in Norway and defend deep in Europe, and deep defending manufactures corners at the other end. The two Champions League ties against Dinamo Zagreb were the outlier at 10.0 per match, but Viking conceded seven corners a game in them while winning only three.