vs
Santos vs Cruzeiro
Sat 12 Sept · 21:00Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
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SantosHomeCruzeiroAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Cruzeiro to win 1-2 at the Vila Belmiro. We make it Cruzeiro 38, the draw 29, Santos 33.
- The one stat
- Cruzeiro have taken 70% of the points available under Artur Jorge: 12 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from 18 Brasileirão matches.
- The risk
- Cruzeiro have lost their last three competitive away matches, 1.30 xG for and 1.91 against. Santos are unbeaten in four at home.
- The calls
- Safer: over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Riskier: Cruzeiro to win at 2.44. Three more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Santos vs Cruzeiro prediction has to start with a table that flatters neither side. Santos sit 13th on 32 points from 25 matches (W8 D8 L9), seven clear of the relegation places, and they have taken 11 points from six Serie A matches since the turn (W3 D2 L1). Cruzeiro are sixth on 42 points from 26 (W12 D6 L8), four short of the Libertadores places, and they have been the strongest side in the league's second half. Yet the Elo ratings have Santos ahead, 1716 to 1697, before a point of home advantage is added. The market disagrees, and it prices Cruzeiro at 2.44 against Santos at 2.88.
Neither club is in crisis and neither coach is new. Cuca took over at Santos on 19 March, Artur Jorge at Cruzeiro on 22 March: three days apart, six months ago, so whatever bounce a change buys was spent long before now and what is left is the underlying level. Artur Jorge's is the better one. His 18 Brasileirão matches read 12 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, 70% of the points available, and 15 points from the seven since the turn. Cruzeiro's fortnight was ugly, out of the Libertadores to Flamengo and out of the Copa do Brasil to Atlético-MG on 2 September, but they answered with a 3-1 home win over Athletico Paranaense and never came close to three competitive defeats in a row.
The week belongs to Santos' diary. They beat Atlético-MG 2-0 at the Vila on Wednesday in the Copa Sudamericana quarter-final first leg, and they travel to the Arena MRV on 16 September with that lead to protect, three days after this. Cruzeiro have had six days off and nothing left in the calendar but the league. Santos are also short in attack: their leading scorer Gabriel Barbosa is suspended, Neymar has a grade-two thigh injury, and Álvaro Barreal is out with the same problem.
The markets
Total goals
Over 1.5
Only 3 of these two sides' last 14 Serie A matches finished under 1.5 goals, and Santos' home league season runs at 2.69 goals a match to Cruzeiro's 2.92 away; we make it 74% against the market's 73%.
Match result
Cruzeiro
Artur Jorge has taken 70% of the points available in 18 Brasileirão matches and Cruzeiro have six days of rest to Santos' three; we make it 38% against the market's 39%, with their run of three away defeats the reason this is the riskier call.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsProbable XIs
Result & goals
Double chance
Cruzeiro or drawPrice 1.40
3/5Cruzeiro plus the draw is 67% on our numbers against the market's 68%, and Santos have drawn four of 13 home league matches while missing their leading scorer, Neymar and Álvaro Barreal.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.69
3/5Both teams have scored in six of Cruzeiro's last eight Serie A matches and five of their last seven competitive away matches, while Santos have scored in five of their last six league games; we make it 54% to the market's 55%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Cards
Total cards
Over 5.5Price 1.91
3/5Bruno Arleu de Araújo averages 5.56 yellows a game against a 4.58 league average, and both sides' Serie A matches already average five cards or more, which puts the expected total near six.
EvidenceRefereeDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 21:00 Santos time
- Saturday
- Referee
- Bruno Arleu de Araújo
- 5.56 yellows per game across 161 Serie A matches
- Weather
- 20 °C, light rain
- 55% chance of rain, 94% humidity, wind 11 km/h
- Rest
- 3 days vs 6
- Santos played a Sudamericana quarter-final on Wednesday
- At play
- 13th vs 6th
- Santos 7 points clear of the drop, Cruzeiro 4 off the Libertadores places
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, why the referee matters more than either attack, and what the corner count does not tell you.
01Goals
These two have played 14 Serie A matches between them most recently, Santos' last six and Cruzeiro's last eight, and only three of the 14 finished under 1.5 goals. That is the number the board is built on. Santos' home league season reads 18 scored and 17 conceded in 13 matches, 2.69 goals a match. Cruzeiro's away league season is 14 and 21 in 12, 2.92 a match. The league average this season is 2.63 from 256 matches.
The 2.5 line is genuinely balanced and we leave it alone: 1.92 and 1.86, with the market at 49% and 51%, and our own arithmetic lands in the same place. What is not balanced is the shape underneath. Cruzeiro have had both teams score in six of their last eight Serie A matches and in five of their last seven competitive away matches, and they kept one clean sheet in that league run. Santos have scored in five of their last six Serie A matches. Both teams to score at 1.69 is the honest version of that.
The counter-argument is real and it belongs to Santos' home record. Their last eight competitive matches at the Vila produced 1.98 xG for and 1.07 against, a better underlying profile than anything Cruzeiro have managed on the road, where the same count reads 1.30 for and 1.91 against. That is why the draw stays live at 29% and why the score we write down is a one-goal win, not a comfortable one.
Cruzeiro have scored 1.75 a game in their last eight Serie A matches, but only 1.17 a game away all season, and they concede 1.75 on the road.
Sample: Serie A 2026 only: Santos last 6, Cruzeiro last 8. Splits are season home (Santos) and away (Cruzeiro).
| Metric | SantosHome | CruzeiroAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.671.38 at home | 1.751.17 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.171.31 at home | 1.121.75 away |
| xG created per game | 1.44 | 1.55 |
| xG conceded per game | 0.9 | 1.45 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Santos have been out-created on xG once in six Serie A matches. Cruzeiro have conceded more xG than they made in four of eight.
Sample: Serie A 2026 only: Santos 6 matches with xG, Cruzeiro 8, oldest first.
SantosHome
avg xG 1.44 · avg xGA 0.90
2–2D
Chapecoense-sc (H)
0–2L
Atletico Paranaense (H)
0–3W
Vasco DA Gama (A)
1–1D
Mirassol (H)
0–1W
Corinthians (A)
2–3W
Internacional (A)
CruzeiroAway
avg xG 1.55 · avg xGA 1.45
1–2W
Internacional (A)
0–1L
Botafogo (H)
0–1W
Coritiba (A)
3–1W
Mirassol (H)
1–2W
Corinthians (A)
2–1W
Flamengo (H)
3–1L
Vasco DA Gama (A)
3–1W
Atletico Paranaense (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Santos are unbeaten in the last three meetings, two wins and a draw, but across the eight competitive meetings listed Cruzeiro lead 4-3 and six went over 2.5 goals.
3
Santos
1
Draws
4
Cruzeiro
22 Mar 2026·Serie A
Cruzeiro0–0Santos7 Dec 2025·Serie A
Santos3–0Cruzeiro10 Aug 2025·Serie A
Cruzeiro1–2Santos14 Sept 2023·Serie A
Santos0–3Cruzeiro6 May 2023·Serie A
Cruzeiro2–1Santos24 Nov 2019·Serie A
Santos4–1Cruzeiro18 Aug 2019·Serie A
Cruzeiro2–0Santos23 Sept 2018·Serie A
Cruzeiro2–1Santos
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total goals
Over 1.5Safer
Price 1.274/5Match result
CruzeiroRiskier
Price 2.442/5Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw
Price 1.403/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.693/5
02Cards
Bruno Arleu de Araújo is the appointed referee and he is the number that moves this chapter. Across 161 Serie A matches he averages 5.56 yellows a game against a league average of 4.58 this season, with 0.25 reds a game. That is roughly a fifth more cards than a neutral whistle.
The teams do not need the help. Santos' six Serie A matches with card data average 5.3 cards in total and cleared 3.5 in four of them. Cruzeiro's eight average 5.0 and cleared 3.5 in six, and Cruzeiro are the more carded of the two at 3.0 a match to Santos' 2.2. Add a wet ball, a 55% chance of rain and the tightest touchline in the division, and the total should sit closer to six than five.
Bruno Arleu de Araújo shows 5.56 yellows a game against a league average of 4.58 this season, about a fifth more than a neutral appointment.
Sample: Career record, 161 Serie A matches. League average from 256 Serie A matches in 2026.
Bruno Arleu de Araújo
161 matches this season
league average
Santos' Serie A matches have averaged 5.3 cards and Cruzeiro's 5.0, both above the league's 4.96, before a strict referee is added.
Sample: Serie A 2026 only: Santos 6 matches with card data, Cruzeiro 8.
| Metric | SantosHome | CruzeiroAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to them per game | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Over 3.5 cards | 67% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 5.5
Price 1.913/5
03Corners
Santos win the corner count, Cruzeiro concede fewer, and the two cancel. In Serie A this season Santos have taken 6.2 corners a match and allowed 4.0, a 10.2 match total. Cruzeiro have taken 5.2 and allowed 3.8, a 9.0 total. The league runs at 10.13.
That is a coin flip dressed as an edge, and the board carries no corners line because of it. It is worth knowing for one reason only: Santos' route to a goal at the Vila runs through set pieces more than through open play, and Willian Arão playing at centre-back puts another head in the box.
Santos' Serie A matches average 10.2 corners and Cruzeiro's 9.0, either side of the league's 10.13 and too close to price.
Sample: Serie A 2026 only: Santos 6 matches with corner data, Cruzeiro 8.
| Metric | SantosHome | CruzeiroAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for per game | 6.2 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per game | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 10.2 | 9.0 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 70%
- of points taken by Cruzeiro under Artur Jorge
- 12 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 18 Brasileirão matches. That is a top-four level, not a sixth-placed one.
- 11 of 14
- recent Serie A matches over 1.5 goals
- Santos' last six and Cruzeiro's last eight. Only three finished with fewer than two goals, which is the safer call in one line.
- 3
- straight competitive away defeats for Cruzeiro
- 1.30 xG for and 1.91 against on the road. The one number that argues against the verdict, and the reason confidence stops at 3.
- 5.56
- yellows per game for the referee
- Against a 4.58 league average this season. Both sides already average five cards a match in the league.
Two numbers carry this preview: Cruzeiro's points ratio under Artur Jorge, and the referee's card rate. Almost everything else is close enough to be noise, which is why the verdict is a one-goal win and not a statement.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Santos lose their leading scorer and their two most creative attackers. Cruzeiro lose three players they have already proved they win without.
05Team news
Santos are without their leading scorer and two starting attackers. Cruzeiro's absentees have been missing through 22 points from the last 30.
SantosHome
Gabriel BarbosaST
yellow card accumulation
GoalsResult
SuspendedNeymarAM
grade-two thigh injury
Goals
OutÁlvaro BarrealLW
thigh injury
Goals
OutGonzalo EscobarLB
yellow card accumulation
Goals
SuspendedLucas VeríssimoCB
ankle, finishing rehabilitation
GoalsResult
Doubtful
CruzeiroAway
Gabriel PecLW
broken leg
Goals
OutLuís SinisterraLW
muscle injury
Goals
OutJonathan JesusCB
ankle injury
Goals
OutNéiser VillarrealST
ankle sprain
Goals
DoubtfulKaique KenjiST
ankle sprain
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Team news from Brazilian national and club outlets published on 11 September 2026. Impact grades come from what each side has done with and without the player this season.
06Expected XI
Both are expected in 4-3-3. Cruzeiro name a near-full-strength side; Santos field a patched attack with Willian Arão at centre-back.
SantosHome
Cuca
CruzeiroAway
Artur Jorge
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Everton Cebolinha and Lucas Veríssimo are the likeliest changes for Santos, Lucas Villalba for Gabriel Rojas at Cruzeiro.
07Shape and plan
Kaio Jorge against a makeshift pair
Santos are expected to pair João Ananias with Willian Arão, a midfielder by trade, because Lucas Veríssimo is only just back in training and Gonzalo Escobar is suspended. Cruzeiro's away xG against of 1.91 says they are not hard to play through, but their route forward is direct to Kaio Jorge with Matheus Pereira arriving late. That is exactly the pattern a converted midfielder at centre-back struggles to pick up.
Who replaces the goals
Santos lose Gabriel Barbosa, Neymar and Álvaro Barreal from an attack that has scored 1.67 a game in the league. Gustavo Caballero and Thaciano are the likely front pair with Gabriel Bontempo wide, and Everton Cebolinha waits on the bench for a debut. Santos' six league matches produced 1.44 xG a game with those names available. This is a thinner version of it.
Six days against three
Cruzeiro have not played since 6 September and have no cup football left. Santos played on Wednesday and travel to the Arena MRV on 16 September holding a 2-0 lead in a quarter-final. Cuca named a strong side in training, but the last twenty minutes are where a three-day turnaround shows up, and Cruzeiro have scored 1.07 goals a game after the break this season to Santos' 0.81.
The wet ball
Light rain, a 55% chance of it, 94% humidity and a 20 °C evening. The Vila's pitch holds water and both sides play through midfield: Santos at 51% possession, Cruzeiro at 55%. Expect more second balls, more mistimed challenges, and a referee who already averages 5.56 yellows a game reaching for his pocket.
08Three duels
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro · ST
Cruzeiro's reference point and the finisher for a side that created 3.07 xG in its last league outing. He will be fed early against a centre-back pairing missing its first choice.
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro · AM
The one player here who can beat a low block on his own. If Santos sit deep to protect legs, he is the reason the match does not finish goalless.
Gabriel Brazão
Santos · GK
Santos have conceded 0.90 xG a game in the league and still let in 1.17. Their goalkeeper has been the difference between a solid home record and a bad one.
Benjamín Rollheiser
Santos · CM
With Neymar and Álvaro Barreal out, Santos' creation runs through him. Cruzeiro will put Lucas Romero on top of him and dare the rest of the attack to invent something.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 38%chanceMost likely
Cruzeiro's legs decide it
The first hour is even and cagey on a wet pitch. Santos lead or level at the break, but the three-day turnaround tells after 65 minutes: Matheus Pereira finds space between the lines and Kaio Jorge converts. Cruzeiro win by one, both sides score, the card count clears five.
- 33%chance
The Vila holds
Santos' home profile of 1.98 xG for and 1.07 against is the real one. They press early, take the goal their shot volume deserves and make Cruzeiro chase on a road where the visitors have lost three in a row. A 2-1 or 1-0 home win: the riskier call dies, the goals call survives.
- 29%chance
Nobody breaks
Rain, a tight pitch and two sides that have drawn plenty. Santos have drawn four of 13 home league matches this season. Cruzeiro are content with a point that keeps them four off the Libertadores places. A 1-1: the safer call lands, the double chance lands, the win does not.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Cruzeiro have been the best side in the second half of this Brasileirão and they arrive rested, with nothing else in the diary. Santos arrive three days from a quarter-final they are winning.
10The verdict
Cruzeiro edge a close one on rest and league level
We make it Cruzeiro 38, the draw 29, Santos 33, within a few points of the market's 39, 29 and 33, and deliberately so. Elo has Santos ahead by 19 points before home advantage is counted, and their home profile of 1.98 xG for and 1.07 against over eight competitive matches is the best underlying number in this preview. But home advantage and an away side's poor road record are not reasons to back a team priced at 2.88, and the reasons that do count run the other way. Artur Jorge has taken 70% of the available points across 18 Brasileirão matches and 15 points from the seven since the turn. Cruzeiro have six days of rest and no cup football left, while Santos have three days and a 2-0 Sudamericana lead to defend at the Arena MRV on Tuesday. Santos also lose their leading scorer Gabriel Barbosa to suspension. Neymar's absence is the one we refuse to build on: Santos have won both matches since he went down, scoring five and conceding two, so the with-and-without test grades him a 2, not a 3. Cruzeiro's absentees fail the same test in their favour, missing throughout a run of 22 points from 30. Confidence stops at 3 because Cruzeiro have lost their last three competitive away matches with 1.30 xG for and 1.91 against, and because neither side is priced under 2.00.
What would change our mind
- If Lucas Veríssimo is passed fit and starts, Santos' back four firms up: trim the Cruzeiro win, keep the goals call.
- If Cuca rests Benjamín Rollheiser or Thaciano for Tuesday's second leg, the riskier call strengthens.
- If the rain arrives heavier than the 1 mm forecast, lean harder on the cards line and expect a lower-scoring match.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Cruzeiro are the market favourite at 2.44 against Santos at 2.88, with the draw at 3.27. We agree, but narrowly: our own probabilities are Cruzeiro 38%, the draw 29% and Santos 33%. Cruzeiro sit sixth on 42 points from 26 matches, Santos 13th on 32 from 25, and the Elo ratings are almost level at 1716 to 1697 in Santos' favour.
- What is the predicted score for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- Santos 1-2 Cruzeiro. Both sides' league matches have been busy, with only 3 of their last 14 Serie A games finishing under 1.5 goals, and both teams have scored in six of Cruzeiro's last eight. Cruzeiro's edge is rest and level rather than class: six days off and no cup football against Santos' three-day turnaround.
- Is Neymar playing for Santos against Cruzeiro?
- No. Neymar has a grade-two right thigh injury reported on 5 September and is expected out for at least a month. Santos have won both matches since he was ruled out, beating Internacional 3-2 and Atlético-MG 2-0, scoring five and conceding two, so his absence is graded a 2 rather than a 3 on our with-and-without test.
- Who else is missing for Santos and Cruzeiro?
- Santos are without leading scorer Gabriel Barbosa and left-back Gonzalo Escobar, both suspended, plus Neymar and Álvaro Barreal with thigh injuries, while Lucas Veríssimo is a doubt after an ankle problem. Cruzeiro are without Gabriel Pec, Luís Sinisterra, Jonathan Jesus and Kaique Kenji, with Néiser Villarreal doubtful.
- What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Cruzeiro?
- Across the last eight competitive meetings Cruzeiro lead 4-3 with one draw, at 2.75 goals a meeting and six of the eight going over 2.5. Santos are unbeaten in the last three, however: 0-0 away in March 2026, 3-0 at home in December 2025 and 2-1 away in August 2025.
Written 12 Sept 2026, 01:25 · Updated 12 Sept 2026, 01:25 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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