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San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
Sat 12 Sept · 19:30PayPal Park, San Jose
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San Jose EarthquakesHomeHouston DynamoAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- San Jose Earthquakes to win, 2-1. They are unbeaten in three and home at last; Houston are winless in their last two on the road.
- The one stat
- Houston have conceded 0.42 goals a game in 12 MLS matches against 0.99 expected. That defence is running hot.
- The risk
- San Jose have not won any of their last six home matches, conceding 2.83 a game there with no clean sheet.
- The calls
- Safer: San Jose or the draw at 1.40. Riskier: both teams to score at 1.55. Three more leans on the board.
The situation
Every San Jose vs Houston Dynamo prediction runs into the same puzzle. Houston are second in the Western Conference on 43 points from 24 matches (W13 D4 L7) and have taken 2.08 points a game from their last 12 in the league, winning seven and losing one. San Jose are fifth on 38 from 24 (W11 D5 L8) and have won two of their last 13 league matches, taking 0.77 points a game. Elo has Houston 124 points clear, 1607 to 1483. And yet the market makes San Jose favourite at 2.39, Houston 2.79. It is not being sentimental.
The split is the reason. San Jose have been a road team all year: W7 D3 L3 away from home in the league, W4 D2 L5 at PayPal Park. Houston are the mirror image, W8 D2 L2 at home and W5 D2 L5 on the road, 1.42 points a game away against San Jose's 1.27 at home. Take the two venue records side by side and this is close to level, and MLS as a whole has gone home 46%, draw 25%, away 28% across 357 matches this season. Neither club is in crisis: San Jose are unbeaten in three after a 3-2 win at San Diego, Houston beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 in midweek.
Both coaches are settled. Bruce Arena took over as San Jose's sporting director and head coach on 7 November 2024 and has them in a playoff place despite a summer slide that has cost them four of their last six home matches. Ben Olsen has been in charge at Houston since 9 November 2022 and has built the most conservative side in the conference: 15 goals scored and five conceded in 12 league matches, eight clean sheets. This is San Jose's first home match after three straight on the road, and their fourth meeting with Houston in thirteen months.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 19:30 San Jose time
- Saturday
- Weather
- 19 °C, dry
- Light breeze, gusts to 32 km/h, no rain forecast
- Rest
- 3 days vs 3
- Both won in midweek
- Venue
- PayPal Park, San Jose
- San Jose's first home match after three on the road
- Standings
- 5th vs 2nd in the West
- 38 points from 24 played vs 43 from 24
Part one
Analysis
Why a leaky home side is still the right call, where the goals come from, and the one number on Houston's side of the sheet that will not hold.
01Goals
Houston's season rests on a number that is not sustainable. In 12 MLS matches they have conceded five goals, 0.42 a game, from an expected 0.99 a game. That is roughly seven goals of good fortune, and it is the difference between second place and mid-table. Their attack is honest but small: 15 goals in those 12 matches, 1.25 a game, with 1.10 expected. Houston have scored more than one goal twice in their last nine league matches.
San Jose are the opposite case. They create: 1.47 expected goals a game across 13 MLS matches, 1.54 a game in their last six at home. They just cannot defend. One clean sheet in 13 league matches, none in six at home, 2.83 conceded a game at PayPal Park. Both teams have scored in 10 of their 13 league matches and in five of the last six at home. That is the shape of this match: San Jose doing most of the pressing, Houston taking what they are given, and a scoreline that does not stay at 0-0.
The counter-argument is the 30 August meeting in Houston, which finished 0-0 with San Jose holding 58% of the ball and putting four shots on target to Houston's none. San Jose created 1.33 expected goals there and scored none. Three of the previous seven meetings, though, produced three goals or more, and the eight competitive meetings average 3.00 goals with both scoring in six.
Houston concede 0.42 a game in the league; San Jose have shipped 2.83 a game across their last six at home and kept no clean sheet there.
Sample: MLS 2026: 13 matches (San Jose), 12 (Houston). Splits: last 6 home / last 7 away, all competitions.
| Metric | San Jose EarthquakesHome | Houston DynamoAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.311.0 at home | 1.251.29 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.232.83 at home | 0.420.71 away |
| Clean sheets | 8%0% at home | 67%57% away |
| Both teams scored | 77%83% at home | 33%43% away |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62%67% at home | 25%29% away |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
San Jose have out-created their opponent in six of ten and taken four points from them; Houston's results keep beating their expected goals.
Sample: Last 10 MLS matches each, 2026 season
San Jose EarthquakesHome
avg xG 1.56 · avg xGA 1.72
2–3L
FC Dallas (H)
1–3W
Portland Timbers (A)
0–4L
Orlando City SC (H)
1–1D
Los Angeles Galaxy (H)
1–3L
St. Louis City (H)
1–0L
Los Angeles Galaxy (A)
1–5L
Minnesota United FC (H)
0–0D
Houston Dynamo (A)
1–1D
Austin (A)
2–3W
San Diego (A)
Houston DynamoAway
avg xG 1.10 · avg xGA 1.02
1–1D
Los Angeles Galaxy (A)
1–1D
DC United (H)
3–0W
Austin (H)
0–2W
Sporting Kansas City (A)
0–2W
New England Revolution (A)
1–0W
Los Angeles Galaxy (H)
0–1W
Vancouver Whitecaps (A)
2–1L
St. Louis City (A)
0–0D
San Jose Earthquakes (H)
0–0D
Charlotte (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Eight competitive meetings, Houston four wins to two, but at 3.00 goals a meeting with both scoring in six of eight; only the last one, a 0-0 in Houston, broke the pattern.
2
San Jose Earthquakes
2
Draws
4
Houston Dynamo
30 Aug 2026·Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo0–0San Jose Earthquakes24 Aug 2025·Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo1–2San Jose Earthquakes25 May 2025·Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes3–3Houston Dynamo18 Jul 2024·Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes0–1Houston Dynamo31 Mar 2024·Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo2–1San Jose Earthquakes22 Jun 2023·Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo4–1San Jose Earthquakes2 Apr 2023·Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes2–1Houston Dynamo18 Jul 2022·Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes1–2Houston Dynamo
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
02Cards
This is a busy card fixture on both sides of the halfway line. San Jose's MLS matches have averaged 4.8 cards across 12 with statistics, 2.8 of them their own, and have gone over 3.5 in seven of those 12. Houston's average 4.9, with 2.8 shown to their opponents, over 3.5 in nine of 12. The league runs at 4.37 a match, with 62% going over 3.5.
There is a recent edge to it too. San Jose picked up seven cards including a red in the 3-2 win at San Diego on 10 September, and Houston had five with a red in their 1-0 home win over the Galaxy. Max Floriani serves that suspension tonight. A tight Western Conference match between a side chasing the game and a side defending a lead is the standard route to four or more.
San Jose's league matches average 4.8 cards and Houston's 4.9, both above the league's 4.37; over 3.5 landed in 7 of 12 and 9 of 12.
Sample: MLS 2026, 12 matches with statistics per team
| Metric | San Jose EarthquakesHome | Houston DynamoAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per match, both sides | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Cards shown to the team | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Cards shown to opponents | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Over 3.5 cards | 58% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Corners follow the same logic as the possession. San Jose's MLS matches average 9.6 across 12 with statistics, 5.1 of them their own; Houston's average 8.6, only 3.8 theirs. Houston concede 4.8 a match and win 3.8, which is what a team that sits deep and breaks looks like on a corner count.
The league average is 9.93 a match and 52% of matches clear 9.5. With San Jose expected to hold the ball and Houston happy to let them have it, the count should sit around the league line rather than above it. This chapter is analysis, not a lean.
San Jose's matches average 9.6 corners and Houston's 8.6, either side of the league's 9.93; only 4 of Houston's 12 cleared 9.5.
Sample: MLS 2026, 12 matches with statistics per team
| Metric | San Jose EarthquakesHome | Houston DynamoAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| Corners conceded per game | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners per match, both sides | 9.6 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 33% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 0.42
- Houston goals conceded per league game
- Eight clean sheets in 12 MLS matches, from 0.99 expected goals against a game. The margin is fortune, not a wall.
- 2.83
- San Jose goals conceded per home game
- Seventeen in their last six at PayPal Park, with no clean sheet. Houston will get their chance.
- 125
- Elo points between the two sides
- Houston 1607, San Jose 1483. Home advantage is worth roughly 60 to 80 of that, which is why this prices close.
- 3.00
- goals per competitive meeting
- Across eight meetings, with both teams scoring in six and six going over 2.5.
Read those four together and the match makes sense. Houston are the better side and the one whose results have outrun the underlying play; San Jose are the worse side in the better position on the night. The gap between them is smaller than the table says and smaller than the season records suggest.
Part two
Who plays, and how
San Jose are missing a first-choice full-back and their designated striker, and have coped. Houston lose a forward and a wing-back and change nothing.
05Team news
San Jose are unbeaten in three without Werner and Jones; Houston are expected to name the same eleven that beat Real Salt Lake.
San Jose EarthquakesHome
DeJuan JonesLB
Achilles tendon injury
GoalsResult
OutTimo WernerFW
injury
Goals
OutMax FlorianiDF
suspended after his red card at San Diego
ResultCards
OutPreston JuddFW
knock picked up at San Diego
Goals
DoubtfulNonso AdimabuaFW
lower-body injury
Goals
OutDarius JohnsonFW
lower-body injury
Goals
OutEarl Edwards Jr.GK
lower-body injury
Out
Houston DynamoAway
Lyle FosterFW
unavailable
Goals
OutMarcelo SaracchiLB
lower-body injury
Result
OutJimmy MaurerGK
concussion
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Matchday reporting and predicted-lineup sources, 12 September. Felipe Andrade is available again for Houston after suspension.
06Expected XI
Arena keeps the three at the back that held Houston to no shots on target on 30 August; Olsen is expected to name an unchanged 4-4-2.
San Jose EarthquakesHome
Bruce Arena
Houston DynamoAway
Ben Olsen
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Predicted XIs, 12 September.
07Shape and plan
The rerun of 30 August
Two weeks ago San Jose had 58% of the ball in Houston and put four shots on target to none. Olsen will take that trade again: sit in a 4-4-2 block, let Costa and Jasinski have the ball wide, and defend the box. Houston have allowed 10.7 shots a game in the league and conceded 0.42 goals. The question is whether that finishing rate survives a third meeting.
San Jose's wing-backs against a narrow block
Arena's 3-4-2-1 asks Vítor Costa and Jack Jasinski to supply the width. San Jose win 5.1 corners a game in the league to Houston's 3.8, and Houston concede 4.8. With Löwen and Tsakiris arriving late, set pieces and second balls are San Jose's cleanest route past a team that will not press.
Where Houston's goals come from
Fifteen in 12 league matches, and most of them from transition through Guilherme and Bogusz. San Jose have conceded 2.83 a game across six at PayPal Park and have not kept a clean sheet at home all season, which is why the both-teams-to-score line is the riskier call rather than a home clean sheet.
Legs at the end
Both sides played in midweek and both are flagged congested. Houston's second-half record is the better one, but they have scored twice in a match only twice in nine league games. San Jose have conceded 0.96 second-half goals a game on the season's weighted averages, so a late swing in either direction is live.
08Three duels
Ousseni Bouda
San Jose Earthquakes · FW
Leads the line alone against two centre-backs who barely leave the box. His running in behind is San Jose's only way of turning Houston around.
Eduard Löwen
San Jose Earthquakes · AM
The set-piece deliverer in a match where San Jose should win five or six corners. Against a block this deep, dead balls are the cheapest chances on offer.
Jonathan Bond
Houston Dynamo · GK
Houston have conceded five goals in 12 league matches from 0.99 expected a game. A good deal of that gap has been him, and he faced four shots on target here two weeks ago without conceding.
Artur
Houston Dynamo · CM
The screen in front of the back four and the first pass out of it. If he wins the second balls around Leroux and Vieira, Houston's plan works again.
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo · ST
Houston's most reliable outlet on the break, and the player San Jose's three centre-backs have to track when Costa and Jasinski are high.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 38%chanceMost likely
San Jose finally cash in at home
San Jose keep the ball, work the wide areas and score from a set piece or a second ball. Houston have one goal in them on the break and take it. San Jose's 1.54 expected goals a game across six home matches finally becomes two. Our scoreline: 2-1.
- 35%chance
Houston's block holds and they break once
The 30 August template repeats, only the chance falls right. San Jose reach 1.3 or 1.4 expected goals and score none; Guilherme runs into the space behind Costa. Houston have won 1-0 twice in a month, at Vancouver and at home to the Galaxy.
- 27%chance
Another stalemate
Houston take the point they came for. San Jose have drawn two of their last six at home; Houston have drawn four of their last 12 league matches and three of seven on the road. The last meeting finished 0-0 and this one could sit at 1-1 for half an hour.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Houston's back four has been living on borrowed time: 0.42 goals conceded a game against 0.99 expected. San Jose, unbeaten in three and home at last, are exactly the kind of side that presents the bill.
10The verdict
San Jose edge a loose one at PayPal Park
Houston arrive without Lyle Foster and Marcelo Saracchi and with a defence that has conceded 0.42 goals a game in 12 MLS matches against 0.99 expected, which is the single most fragile number on either team sheet. Neither club is in crisis: San Jose are unbeaten in three and won 3-2 at San Diego, Houston beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 in midweek. Both coaches are long-serving, Arena since November 2024 and Olsen since November 2022, so there is no bounce to price in either direction. We make it San Jose 38%, the draw 27%, Houston 35%, within a point of the market's 39-27-34, and the reason a fifth-placed side with one clean sheet in 13 is favoured over second place is venue: San Jose take 1.27 points a game at home, Houston 1.42 on the road, and MLS home sides win 46% of the time. The with/without test clears San Jose's absences - they are unbeaten in three without Werner and DeJuan Jones - while Houston's shortage is in the forward line. San Jose create 1.54 expected goals a game at home and concede 2.83, so the goals should come from both ends. Score 2-1, confidence 3, with the safer call on the double chance rather than the win at 2.39.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
- San Jose Earthquakes are the narrow market favourite at 2.39 (39%), with the draw 3.42 (27%) and Houston Dynamo 2.79 (34%). We land in the same place: San Jose 38%, draw 27%, Houston 35%. Houston are the better team on Elo, 1607 to 1483, but San Jose's home ground and Houston's mediocre road season (W5 D2 L5 from 12) close the gap.
- What is the predicted score?
- San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Houston Dynamo. San Jose have kept one clean sheet in 13 MLS matches and none in their last six at home, where they concede 2.83 a game, so Houston should score. But Houston's defence has given up 0.42 goals a game against 0.99 expected, and that gap usually closes.
- Who is out for San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo?
- San Jose are without DeJuan Jones (Achilles), Timo Werner, Earl Edwards Jr., Nonso Adimabua and Darius Johnson, with Max Floriani suspended after his red card at San Diego and Preston Judd a doubt. Houston are missing Lyle Foster, Jimmy Maurer (concussion) and Marcelo Saracchi; Felipe Andrade returns from suspension.
- What is the head-to-head record?
- Eight competitive meetings: Houston Dynamo have won four, San Jose Earthquakes two, with two draws, at 3.00 goals a meeting. Both teams scored in six of eight and six went over 2.5 goals. The most recent, in Houston on 30 August 2026, finished 0-0, with San Jose having four shots on target to Houston's none.
- What are the calls for this match?
- The safer call is San Jose Earthquakes or the draw at 1.40, confidence 3. The riskier call is both teams to score at 1.55, confidence 3. Three more leans sit on the board: San Jose to win with the draw taken out at 1.75, over 2.5 goals at 1.69 and over 3.5 cards at 1.41.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 01:15 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 01:15 UTC. This match has been played; the preview is kept as written. Past previews
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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