vs
Levante vs Athletic Club
Wed 16 Sept · 21:30Estadi Ciutat de València, Valencia
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LevanteHomeAthletic ClubAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Athletic Club to win, 0-1. We make it Athletic Club 41%, Levante 30%, draw 29%.
- The one stat
- Levante have failed to score in three of their four La Liga matches; all five of their goals came in one 5-2 night against Real Betis.
- The risk
- Athletic Club played on Saturday and travel without Dani Vivian and Gorka Guruzeta, and the Ciutat de València crowd turned the Betis game.
- The calls
- Safer: Athletic Club or the draw at 1.35. Riskier: both teams to score - no at 2.05. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Levante vs Athletic Club prediction has to start with one number: Levante have scored in one of their four La Liga matches this season. That one was a 5-2 win over Real Betis at home on 29 August. The other three finished 0-3 at Espanyol, 0-0 at Osasuna and 0-0 at Malaga. Five points from four (W1 D2 L1) is a respectable return for a side eleventh in the table, and they are unbeaten in three, but two of those three were goalless. Neither club is in trouble: Levante have not lost since the opening weekend, and Athletic Club answered two defeats in their first three with seven points from five (W2 D1 L2) and clean sheets against Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid.
Both dugouts are new-ish. Luis Castro took over at Levante in December 2025 and this is his first full season in charge; his side's shape is settled, the goals are not. Edin Terzic replaced Ernesto Valverde at Athletic Club on 5 May 2026 after Valverde stepped down, and five league matches in, the pattern under him is clear enough: 13.8 shots per match, 6.2 corners, 66% possession against Elche last weekend, and long stretches where nothing goes in. Terzic is past the two-or-three-match bounce window, so what you see now is the level.
The week matters here. This is a Wednesday round. Levante hosted Barcelona on Sunday afternoon, Athletic Club drew 1-1 with Elche on Saturday evening. Nobody arrives fresh, and Terzic has the thinner squad to rotate: Dani Vivian, Gorka Guruzeta, Peio Canales and Unai Egiluz are all out, and Yeray took a knock to the head in September. That is the case for Levante. It is not yet a case for backing them.
The markets
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw
Athletic Club or the draw covers 70% of our book (41% plus 29%); Levante have scored in one of four La Liga matches and have not beaten Athletic Club in the last eight competitive meetings.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Both teams to score
No
Levante failed to score in three of their four La Liga matches and Athletic Club have two clean sheets in five; we make no around 55% against the market's 45%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
Athletic ClubPrice 2.23
3/5We make Athletic Club 41% against the market's 42%: 1.40 goals a game from five La Liga matches, 1.20 conceded, and five wins in the last eight meetings with Levante.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-headxG trend
Asian handicap
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.33
4/5Both sides sit under 1.5 goals a game in La Liga this season, 1.25 and 1.40; we make under 3.5 around 80% against the market's 70%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Total goals
Under 2.5Price 1.91
3/5Levante's four La Liga matches produced 1.25 goals for and 1.25 against, Athletic Club's five 1.40 and 1.20; we make under 2.5 around 58% against the market's 50%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 21:30 Valencia time
- Wednesday
- Venue
- Estadi Ciutat de València
- Valencia
- Stage
- La Liga matchday 6
- Rest
- 3 days vs 4
- Levante hosted Barcelona on Sunday, Athletic Club played Elche on Saturday
- Referee
- Not yet appointed
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals are meant to come from, why the cards stay low, and the one territorial gap between these sides.
01Goals
Two low-scoring teams meet. Levante have taken 1.25 goals a game from four La Liga matches and conceded 1.25; Athletic Club 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded from five. The league is running at 2.93 goals a match, so both sides are living well below the average, and the market agrees: over 2.5 and under 2.5 are both 1.91, a straight coin flip.
The underlying numbers say the same thing more sharply. Levante's four La Liga matches produced 5.13 xG in total, and 2.76 of that arrived on the one night against Real Betis. Strip that out and they created 2.37 xG in three matches. Athletic Club are steadier but not better: 1.42 xG for and 1.52 against per match, with the 0.22 they managed at Barcelona dragging the attacking side down and the 3.90 they conceded there doing the same at the back.
So the question is not whether goals flow. It is who gets the one or two that decide it. Athletic Club have kept two clean sheets in five La Liga matches and have scored in four of five. Levante have kept two in four and failed to score in three of four. That asymmetry is the whole case: the visitors are the side more likely to find the goal, and the match is more likely to finish under 2.5 than over it.
Neither side reaches 1.5 goals a game: Levante 1.25 from four La Liga matches, Athletic Club 1.40 from five, against a league average of 2.93.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27 only: Levante 4 matches, Athletic Club 5
| Metric | LevanteHome | Athletic ClubAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.25 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.2 |
| xG per game | 1.28 | 1.42 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.52 |
| Failed to score | 75% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Levante's 5.13 xG this season is one night and three quiet ones: 2.76 against Real Betis, 2.37 across the other three matches.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27, the four matches per side with xG recorded
LevanteHome
avg xG 1.28 · avg xGA 1.41
3–0L
Espanyol (A)
0–0D
Osasuna (A)
5–2W
Real Betis (H)
0–0D
Malaga (A)
Athletic ClubAway
avg xG 1.42 · avg xGA 1.52
1–3L
Sevilla (H)
2–0L
Barcelona (A)
0–2W
Celta Vigo (A)
3–0W
Atletico Madrid (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Athletic Club have won five and drawn three of the last eight competitive meetings; Levante have won none of them and failed to score in three.
0
Levante
3
Draws
5
Athletic Club
8 Feb 2026·La Liga
Athletic Club4–2Levante29 Nov 2025·La Liga
Levante0–2Athletic Club7 Mar 2022·La Liga
Athletic Club3–1Levante19 Nov 2021·La Liga
Levante0–0Athletic Club4 Mar 2021·Copa del Rey
Levante1–2Athletic Club26 Feb 2021·La Liga
Levante1–1Athletic Club11 Feb 2021·Copa del Rey
Athletic Club1–1Levante18 Oct 2020·La Liga
Athletic Club2–0Levante
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Athletic Club or drawSafer
Price 1.354/5Both teams to score
NoRiskier
Price 2.053/5Match result
Athletic Club
Price 2.233/5Asian handicap
Athletic Club -0.5
Price 2.192/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.334/5Total goals
Under 2.5
Price 1.913/5
02Cards
There is no referee yet, and without one the discipline read stays with the teams. Both are quiet. Levante's four La Liga matches have averaged 3.5 cards in total, Athletic Club's five 4.2, and La Liga this season is running at 4.82 a match. Levante themselves are the tidiest side on this card: 1.0 card a game, against 2.5 for their opponents.
Athletic Club are the more combative of the two, 2.2 cards a game and 12.88 fouls per match on weighted season averages against Levante's 11.23, and they have picked up three in each of their last two league matches. But only two of their five La Liga matches have gone past 3.5 cards, and only one of Levante's four. With no official appointed, there is nothing here we would build a call on.
Levante's matches have averaged 3.5 cards and Athletic Club's 4.2, both under the La Liga average of 4.82 this season.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27 only: Levante 4 matches, Athletic Club 5
| Metric | LevanteHome | Athletic ClubAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Opponent cards per game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Total cards per match | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 25% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
The clearest territorial gap on the card is here. Athletic Club win 6.2 corners a game in La Liga this season and concede 5.6; Levante win 3.5 and concede 5.8. Athletic Club took ten against Sevilla and seven each against Celta Vigo and Elche; Levante have managed one, four, five and four.
That fits the shape of the match we expect: Athletic Club with the ball in the Levante half, Levante playing from deeper and hitting the space behind. Athletic Club's matches have averaged 11.8 corners, Levante's 9.2, against a league average of 9.89. It is analysis, not a call - we are not putting a corners line on the board.
Athletic Club win 6.2 corners a game to Levante's 3.5 - the widest territorial gap between these two sides.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27 only: Levante 4 matches, Athletic Club 5
| Metric | LevanteHome | Athletic ClubAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 75% | 80% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 3 of 4
- Levante La Liga matches without a goal
- Every Levante goal this season came in one 5-2 win over Real Betis. The other three league matches finished 0-3, 0-0 and 0-0.
- 0
- Levante wins in the last eight meetings
- Athletic Club have taken five wins and three draws from the last eight competitive meetings between the clubs, four of them in Valencia.
- 1.20
- Athletic Club goals conceded per game
- Two clean sheets in five La Liga matches, and only Sevilla and Barcelona have scored more than once against Edin Terzic's side this season.
Everything above is counted from this season's La Liga matches: four for Levante, five for Athletic Club. Pre-season friendlies and last season's results are left out of every rate, which is why the samples are small and why we lean on the shape of the numbers rather than their precision.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Athletic Club are short at centre-back and centre-forward. Levante are short of anyone who scores.
05Team news
Athletic Club are missing four players and have a fifth doubtful, but have conceded once in their last three La Liga matches without them.
LevanteHome
Karl Etta EyongFW
right-thigh muscle injury, due back late September
Goals
OutAlex PrimoDF
dislocated shoulder
Result
Out
Athletic ClubAway
Dani VivianCB
adductor, due back early October
GoalsResult
OutGorka GuruzetaST
hamstring, due back in October
Goals
OutYerayCB
concussion
GoalsResult
DoubtfulUnai EgiluzCB
cruciate ligament, out until January 2027
Result
OutPeio CanalesMF
soleus, due back late September
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and Spanish squad-news lists, checked 12-13 September 2026.
06Expected XI
Luis Castro has named the same spine all season: Ryan behind De la Fuente and Mandi, Oriol Rey screening, Iván Romero alone up front.
LevanteHome
Luis Castro
Levante XI from Spanish predicted-lineup sources, 13 September. Athletic Club's XI is left out: Edin Terzic rotated four days earlier and the centre-back pairing is unsettled.
07Shape and plan
Territory against efficiency
Athletic Club will have the ball: 66% possession against Elche, 65% against Sevilla, and 6.2 corners a game to Levante's 3.5. Levante have had more than half the ball once in four La Liga matches. The danger for Athletic Club is that territory has already failed twice - 18 shots and one goal against Sevilla, 19 and one against Elche.
Athletic Club's improvised back four
Dani Vivian is out with an adductor problem and Unai Egiluz until January; Yeray is a doubt after a concussion. That leaves Aymeric Laporte as the only certain centre-back. They have coped - one goal conceded in the last three La Liga matches - but the margin is gone, and Levante's 5-2 against Real Betis came from exactly that kind of chaos.
The second half is where it breaks
Athletic Club's goals arrive late: 1.94 goals per match in second halves against 1.09 in first halves on our league-scope momentum figures. Levante have been level at half-time in three of their four La Liga matches and have led at the break in none. The pattern points to a cagey opening hour and a decisive twenty minutes, which is also why we are not touching a half-time line.
08Three duels
Iván Romero
Levante · ST
Levante's reference point and, with Etta Eyong out, close to their only one. He has to occupy two centre-backs on his own and hold the ball long enough for Levante to climb.
Levante: 5 goals in 4 La Liga matches
Mathew Ryan
Levante · GK
Levante have conceded 5 goals from 5.63 xGA in La Liga, so nothing exceptional has happened behind them yet. Against 13.8 Athletic shots a game, something has to.
3.52 saves per game, weighted season averages
Oihan Sancet
Athletic Club · MF
With Guruzeta out, Sancet is the runner who arrives in the box rather than starts in it. Against a deep Levante block, arriving late is the way in.
Athletic Club: 1.42 xG per game in La Liga
Iñaki Williams
Athletic Club · FW
The one Athletic Club player who turns a back four round. Levante push their full-backs up when they chase, and Williams is the punishment for it.
Athletic Club: 2 goals in 2 away matches
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 41%chanceMost likely
Athletic Club take the one chance
Terzic's side keep the ball, Levante sit deep without it, and the first hour produces nothing but corners. Then Sancet arrives late on a cut-back, or Iñaki Williams beats a full-back on the turn. Levante have to come out, and it finishes 0-1 or 0-2.
- 30%chance
Levante's Betis night, again
The Ciutat de València is full on a Wednesday, Athletic Club's makeshift centre-back pairing gets dragged around, and Levante turn a transition into an early goal. Then they defend it the way they defended 0-0 at Osasuna and Malaga. The 5-2 against Real Betis shows the ceiling is there.
- 29%chance
Nothing gives
Two tired sides, two low-scoring records, and no referee yet appointed to change the temperature. Levante have already played out two goalless draws in four La Liga matches; Athletic Club drew 1-1 with Elche having had 66% of the ball. A 0-0 or 1-1 is not far behind.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Levante have scored in one of four La Liga matches, and all five goals landed on the same night. Athletic Club do not need many to win this.
10The verdict
Athletic Club edge a low-scoring Wednesday in Valencia
Athletic Club travel without Dani Vivian and Gorka Guruzeta, with Yeray doubtful, and are still the side we back: Athletic Club 41%, Levante 30%, draw 29%, against the market's 42/30/28. Neither club is in crisis and neither coach change is fresh enough to matter. The decisive finding is on goals: Levante have failed to score in three of four La Liga matches, while Athletic Club's absences have cost them one goal in three.
What would change our mind
- If Yeray is ruled out alongside Dani Vivian, Athletic Club's centre-backs are improvised: drop the -0.5 handicap lean and keep the double chance.
- If Levante take something from Barcelona on Sunday and name a full-strength side, the draw moves towards a third and only the safer call survives.
- If Levante start a second striker beside Iván Romero, both teams to score - no loses its edge and the under 3.5 lean becomes the better goals shape.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Athletic Club. The market makes them 42% to win at 2.23, Levante 30% at 3.15 and the draw 28% at 3.41. Our own numbers land in the same place: Athletic Club 41%, Levante 30%, draw 29%.
- What is the predicted score for Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Levante 0-1 Athletic Club. Levante have failed to score in three of their four La Liga matches this season, and Athletic Club have kept two clean sheets in five, including 2-0 at Celta Vigo and 3-0 at home to Atletico Madrid.
- Who is out for Levante and Athletic Club?
- Levante are without Karl Etta Eyong (right-thigh muscle injury) and Alex Primo (dislocated shoulder). Athletic Club miss Dani Vivian (adductor), Gorka Guruzeta (hamstring), Peio Canales (soleus) and Unai Egiluz (cruciate ligament), with Yeray a doubt after a concussion.
- What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Athletic Club?
- Athletic Club have won five and drawn three of the last eight competitive meetings; Levante have won none of them. Athletic Club won 4-2 at home in February 2026 and 2-0 in Valencia in November 2025.
- What are the calls for Levante vs Athletic Club?
- The safer call is Athletic Club or the draw at 1.35. The riskier call is both teams to score - no at 2.05. Four more leans sit on the board, every one of them on Athletic Club or on a low-scoring match.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 01:50 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 01:50 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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