Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg

Adi Hutter is back at Deutsche Bank Park, seven years after his first spell, and the Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg prediction turns on whether his rebuilt side can defend for ninety minutes. Frankfurt sit ninth with four points from three played (W1 D1 L1), goal difference minus one. They drew 3-3 at Union Berlin, were beaten 1-4 at home by Augsburg despite 22 shots, then won 3-1 at Mainz. That is one defeat in four competitive matches and a win last time out: no crisis, but a defence that has shipped eight goals in three league games. Hutter's 4-2-2-2 presses high and attacks vertically, and the two forwards have been fed well - seven goals in three league matches.

SC Freiburg are the story of the opening month. Julian Schuster, in his third season in charge, has six straight competitive wins, 22 scored and four conceded, a club-record start. In the Bundesliga alone it is three wins from three, 10 scored, one conceded, and top spot with nine points and a goal difference of plus nine. Our strength indices agree: Freiburg rate 89% for current form in the league and 97% for long-term quality, against Frankfurt's 58% and 63%, and the Elo scale has them 131 points clear. No crisis anywhere near them either.

And yet the market makes Frankfurt favourites, and the fixture explains why. Freiburg have not beaten this opponent in eight competitive meetings - four Frankfurt wins, four draws - and Frankfurt won the last one 2-0 here in March. Freiburg's away form in this league, over a ten-match window at this venue scope, reads three wins, one draw, six defeats, eight scored, 18 conceded. Both sides have had seven clear days and no midweek football.

Start with the simplest fact of the season so far: every Bundesliga match Frankfurt have played has produced at least four goals. Union Berlin 3-3, Augsburg 1-4, Mainz 1-3. Three from three over 2.5, three from three with both teams scoring, and no clean sheet in ten league matches on the longer view. Frankfurt score 2.33 a game and concede 2.67. That is not a sample to argue under with.

Freiburg's own three league games look tighter - 10 scored, one conceded, two clean sheets - but two of the three still went over 2.5 and they are scoring 3.33 a game. The league itself is averaging 3.85 goals per match this season with 81% of matches over 2.5 and 59% both teams scoring, from 27 matches. Put a team that concedes in every league game against a team scoring three a game and the goals markets do the talking.

The result is closer. Frankfurt led at half-time in all three Bundesliga matches and in all four competitive ones; Freiburg have led at the break in all three of theirs. Both start fast. Frankfurt's problem is the hour mark - their strength index drops from 69% in the first half to 51% in the second, and Augsburg turned a 1-0 deficit into a 4-1 win here. That is where a 42% home win becomes a 26% draw.

No referee has been appointed yet, so the cards chapter is analysis rather than a call. The league is running at 3.48 cards a match with 52% of games going over 3.5. Frankfurt's three Bundesliga matches have produced 3.3 cards each, Freiburg's 4.0 - and the split is the interesting part. Frankfurt collect 2.3 of their own per game and draw only 1.0 from opponents; Freiburg take 1.7 and draw 2.3. A high press against a side that plays through the press tends to produce fouls in midfield, and the 3-3 at Union Berlin ran to four cards.

Corners are analysis here, not a lean. Both sides sit under the league's 11.44 per match: Frankfurt's Bundesliga games average 9.7, Freiburg's 9.3, and each has gone over 9.5 once in three. Frankfurt win 5.3 a game and concede 4.3 - they took nine against Augsburg while losing 1-4, which is the shape of their season: plenty of territory, not enough control. Freiburg win 5.3 and concede 4.0 in the league, a lower volume than their all-competitions figure because the Conference League ties against Motherwell inflate it.