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Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Wed 16 Sept · 19:00Estadio Municipal de Riazor, A Coruña
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Deportivo La CorunaHomeSevillaAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Deportivo to win 2-1. They are the market's narrow favourite at 2.46 and the only side here scoring at two a game in La Liga.
- The one stat
- Deportivo have 8 goals from 3.7 expected goals in four league matches. Sevilla have managed one goal in each of their last two.
- The risk
- That finishing is running hot, and Deportivo visit Getafe on Sunday: three days of rest against Sevilla's five.
- The calls
- Safer: Deportivo or draw at 1.38. Riskier: both teams to score at 1.91. Three more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Deportivo vs Sevilla prediction has to start with a scoreboard that disagrees with the underlying numbers. Deportivo are sixth with 8 points from four matches (W2 D2 L0), unbeaten since promotion, and have scored eight times from 3.7 expected goals. Sevilla are third on 10 points from five (W3 D1 L1) after a 1-0 home win over Valencia on Friday, their first clean sheet of the season.
Neither club is in crisis. Sevilla's only defeat in five was 1-3 at home to Atletico Madrid; they have lost one of their last two and won the other. Deportivo have not lost a competitive match this season. Antonio Hidalgo, appointed on 10 June 2025, took them up as runners-up and has kept the same compact, transition-heavy side that got them there: 38% possession at Villarreal and a 3-2 win. Luis García Plaza, appointed on 24 March 2026 to keep Sevilla up and confirmed through June 2027, has cut the chance creation to a minimum and made his team hard to beat late.
The week is about legs and goals. Deportivo play at Getafe on Sunday evening and then come home on three days' rest; Sevilla, who played on Friday, get five. Against that, Sevilla arrive without Rubén Vargas, whose knee injury has coincided with the attack drying up: one goal at Espanyol, one against Valencia, after six in the three matches before it.
The markets
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruna or draw
Deportivo are unbeaten in four La Liga matches (W2 D2) and have taken 2.00 points a game at home; we make home or draw 69% against the market's 68%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Both teams to score
Yes
Both teams have scored in all four of Deportivo's La Liga matches and four of Sevilla's five, and neither has a clean sheet against the other's profile; we make it 57% against the market's 49%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
Deportivo La CorunaPrice 2.46
3/5Deportivo score 2.00 a game in La Liga to Sevilla's 1.60, and Sevilla have one goal in each match without Vargas; we make the home win 39% against the market's 38%.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsProbable XIs
Asian handicap
Deportivo La Coruna 0Price 1.71
3/5The same call with the draw taken out: Deportivo have led at half-time in both home matches and Sevilla have been ahead at the break once in five.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIs
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.40
4/5Deportivo's four league matches have produced 13 goals and none finished under two; we make over 1.5 about 74% against the market's 67%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 19:00 A Coruña time
- Wednesday
- Weather
- 19 °C, breezy
- morning showers clearing, dry by kick-off
- Rest
- 3 days vs 5
- Deportivo at Getafe on Sunday, Sevilla hosted Valencia on Friday
- Table
- 6th vs 3rd
- Deportivo 8 points from 4, Sevilla 10 from 5
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, why the cards count is higher than it looks, and the numbers behind a 2-1.
01Goals
Deportivo score and concede. Both teams have found the net in all four of their La Liga matches, they have no clean sheet, and they have never failed to score: 8 for, 5 against, 2.00 and 1.25 a game. Sevilla are the same shape with smaller numbers: 8 scored and 6 conceded in five, both teams scoring in four of them.
The warning is in the expected goals. Deportivo's four league matches produced 3.7 expected goals for and 5.7 against; they have taken eight and let in five. That is finishing, and finishing regresses. Sevilla are the mirror image at the other end: 4.0 expected goals in the four matches with shot data, seven scored, but only one in each of the two games without Vargas. Two sides who both score and both leak, at a venue where Deportivo have taken 2.00 points a game, is why the goals leans sit above the halfway line rather than under it.
Both teams have scored in all four of Deportivo's La Liga matches and in four of Sevilla's five; there is one clean sheet between them in nine games.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27: Deportivo 4 matches, Sevilla 5
| Metric | Deportivo La CorunaHome | SevillaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 2.02.0 at home | 1.62.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.251.0 at home | 1.21.0 away |
| Expected goals per game | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Deportivo have turned 3.7 expected goals into 8 in four La Liga matches; Sevilla have 7 from 4.0 in the four with shot data.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27 matches with expected-goals data: 4 each
Deportivo La CorunaHome
avg xG 0.92 · avg xGA 1.43
1–1D
Elche (H)
1–1D
Malaga (A)
3–1W
Valencia (H)
2–3W
Villarreal (A)
SevillaAway
avg xG 1.01 · avg xGA 1.32
2–1W
Rayo Vallecano (H)
1–3W
Athletic Club (A)
1–3L
Atletico Madrid (H)
1–1D
Espanyol (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
They have not met since a goalless draw at Riazor in April 2018; in the eight meetings before that Sevilla won five, Deportivo none, at 3.62 goals a game.
0
Deportivo La Coruna
3
Draws
5
Sevilla
17 Apr 2018·La Liga
Deportivo La Coruna0–0Sevilla2 Dec 2017·La Liga
Sevilla2–0Deportivo La Coruna8 Apr 2017·La Liga
Sevilla4–2Deportivo La Coruna19 Nov 2016·La Liga
Deportivo La Coruna2–3Sevilla17 Apr 2016·La Liga
Sevilla1–1Deportivo La Coruna5 Dec 2015·La Liga
Deportivo La Coruna1–1Sevilla7 Mar 2015·La Liga
Deportivo La Coruna3–4Sevilla5 Oct 2014·La Liga
Sevilla4–1Deportivo La Coruna
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Deportivo La Coruna or drawSafer
Price 1.384/5Both teams to score
YesRiskier
Price 1.913/5Match result
Deportivo La Coruna
Price 2.463/5Asian handicap
Deportivo La Coruna 0
Price 1.713/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.404/5
02Cards
Sevilla are the noisier team. Their five La Liga matches have averaged 6.0 cards, against a league average of 4.82, and they have collected 3.4 of them a game themselves; four of the five went past 3.5 cards. Deportivo's four have averaged 4.2, with 2.8 of those their own, and all four cleared 3.5.
The referee is not appointed yet, so there is no whistle profile to lean on and no cards call on this board. Read it as context: a 38%-possession home side defending deep against a team that commits 14.61 fouls a game in the weighted season averages is a booking-heavy evening, not a quiet one.
Sevilla's league matches average 6.0 cards against the league's 4.82; they take 3.4 a game themselves, Deportivo 2.8.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27: Deportivo 4 matches, Sevilla 5
| Metric | Deportivo La CorunaHome | SevillaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| Cards against per game | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Cards in the match per game | 4.2 | 6.0 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 100% | 80% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Neither side wins many. Deportivo have taken 3.0 corners a game in La Liga and conceded 6.2; Sevilla are level at 3.6 each way. Their matches have run at 9.2 and 7.2 corners, both under the league's 9.89, and only two of Deportivo's four and two of Sevilla's five have passed 9.5.
That fits what both do: Deportivo sit off, win the ball and go long and fast rather than working the flanks, and Sevilla build slowly enough that crosses rarely come back off defenders. It is analysis, not a call, and there is no corners line on our board.
Deportivo's league matches average 9.2 corners and Sevilla's 7.2, both under the league average of 9.89.
Sample: La Liga 2026/27: Deportivo 4 matches, Sevilla 5
| Metric | Deportivo La CorunaHome | SevillaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Corners conceded per game | 6.2 | 3.6 |
| Corners in the match per game | 9.2 | 7.2 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 50% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 8
- goals from 3.7 expected goals, 4 matches
- Deportivo's finishing, not their chance creation, has built the unbeaten start, and it is the first thing that regresses.
- 0
- clean sheets in Deportivo's 4 league games
- Both teams have scored in every one of them, which is exactly where the riskier call comes from.
- 1
- goal per game for Sevilla without Vargas
- Two matches since the knee injury, one goal in each, after six goals in the three matches before it.
Two of those three numbers argue against each other on purpose: Deportivo are scoring more than they should and Sevilla fewer than a third-placed side needs. The gap between them at Riazor is small, and that is why the safer call takes the draw with the home win rather than the win alone.
Part two
Who plays, and how
One absence has changed Sevilla's goal rate; Deportivo name close to the same eleven every week.
05Team news
Sevilla have scored once in each of the two matches since Rubén Vargas's knee injury, after six goals in the three before it.
Deportivo La CorunaHome
Noé CarrilloMF
ankle injury since 12 August
Result
OutJonathan Asp JensenMF
viral illness
Result
Doubtful
SevillaAway
Rubén VargasLW
parameniscitis, right knee, since 3 September
GoalsResult
OutArouna SanganteCB
ankle sprain since 8 September
Result
Doubtful
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Team news from club medical reports and Spanish predicted-lineup services, 13 September. Sevilla took four points from six without Vargas, so this is a goals signal rather than a results one.
06Expected XI
Aubameyang leads a Deportivo front line with Yeremay and Nsongo; Sevilla replace Vargas's width with Ejuke and Sierra either side of Ure.
Deportivo La CorunaHome
Antonio Hidalgo
SevillaAway
Luis García Plaza
Probable XIs compiled from Spanish predicted-lineup services on 13 September; goalkeeper first, then each line left to right.
07Shape and plan
Deportivo give the ball away on purpose
They had 38% possession at Villarreal and won 3-2, 39% against Elche, 45% in the other two. Hidalgo's side defends in a tight block and attacks in four passes, which is why they take only 8.2 shots a game and still score two. Sevilla, at 46% possession themselves, do not want to be the team that has to build.
Sevilla start slowly and finish fast
Sevilla have been ahead at half-time once in five league matches and behind twice, and their weighted first-half figure is 0.35 goals a game against 0.87 after the break. Deportivo have led at the break in both home matches. The first 45 minutes are the hosts' window; the last 30 are Sevilla's.
The ball behind Quagliata
Deportivo concede 6.2 corners a game and 13.2 shots, almost all of it down the sides of a back four that defends deep. Without Vargas, Sevilla's width comes from Ejuke and Sierra cutting inside rather than from a touchline runner, which makes Suazo's overlap the likeliest source of their goal.
Three days against five
Deportivo play at Getafe on Sunday and Sevilla played on Friday. A pressing, transition side on 72 hours is the one detail that could flatten the home advantage that the Elo gap of 86 points would otherwise cancel out.
08Three duels
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Deportivo La Coruna · ST
Deportivo's whole plan is to win the ball and find him running at a defence that has stepped up; he is the reason eight goals came from 3.7 expected.
Yeremay Hernández
Deportivo La Coruna · LW
The left-sided carrier who takes Deportivo from their own third to the penalty area alone, and the free-kick taker in a match that should be tight.
Kike Salas
Sevilla · CB
Sevilla defend a high line with a centre-back who has to turn and run; the space behind him is where Aubameyang's evening is decided.
Miguel Sierra
Sevilla · RW
Sevilla's leading scorer this season and, with Vargas out, the player who has to supply the goal Sevilla have managed once a game in the last two.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 39%chanceMost likely
Riazor gets its night
Deportivo lead at the break, as they have in both home matches, off one transition. Sevilla push after the hour and get their goal, as they have in every league game. Aubameyang settles it on a second break. 2-1, both teams scoring, the shape of every Deportivo match so far.
- 31%chance
Sevilla's second half arrives
Deportivo's legs go at 70 minutes after Sunday at Getafe, the expected-goals gap finally tells, and Sevilla's 0.87 second-half goals a game do the rest. A 1-2 or 0-1 built on Suazo's overlap and a set piece.
- 30%chance
Two goals, no winner
Both teams score, as they have in eight of these two sides' nine league matches this season, and neither has the legs or the chance creation to find a third. 1-1, the result that has already happened twice in Deportivo's four.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Deportivo are finishing above their chances and Sevilla are not scoring enough to punish it. At Riazor, even on three days' rest, that is still a home win: 2-1, with both teams on the scoresheet.
10The verdict
Deportivo edge it 2-1 at Riazor
Sevilla come to Riazor without Rubén Vargas and with one goal in each of the two matches since his knee injury, which is the fact that separates two otherwise level teams. We make it 39% Deportivo, 30% draw, 31% Sevilla, within a point or two of the market's 38-30-31, so this is not a disagreement with the price, it is a preference among three live outcomes. Neither club is in crisis: Deportivo are unbeaten in four (W2 D2) under Antonio Hidalgo, and Luis García Plaza's Sevilla have lost one of five. The Elo ratings give Sevilla 86 points, roughly what home advantage is worth here, and Deportivo have taken 2.00 points a game at home. Against the hosts: eight goals from 3.7 expected goals will not hold, and a Sunday trip to Getafe leaves them three days to Sevilla's five. That is why the confidence is 3, why the safer call takes the draw alongside the home win at 1.38, and why the riskier call is both teams to score at 1.91 rather than a handicap on a one-goal favourite.
What would change our mind
- If Deportivo come out of Getafe on Sunday with injuries or a heavy loss, the safer call at 1.38 is the only one worth keeping.
- If Sevilla name Stassin and Isaac Romero together up front, their goal rate should recover and both teams to score at 1.91 strengthens.
- If the wind gets up off the Atlantic, expect fewer clean sequences and more set pieces, which nudges the match towards the 1-1 scenario.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Deportivo vs Sevilla?
- Deportivo are the narrow favourite, priced 2.46 against Sevilla's 3.02, with the draw at 3.11. That is about 38% for the home win. Our own read is close to it: 39% Deportivo, 30% draw, 31% Sevilla. The Elo ratings have Sevilla 86 points clear, but home advantage in this league is worth roughly that much.
- What is the predicted score for Deportivo vs Sevilla?
- We predict Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 Sevilla. Deportivo have scored in every La Liga match this season (8 goals in four) and conceded in every one of them; Sevilla have scored in all five of theirs. Both teams have found the net in four of Deportivo's four and four of Sevilla's five league games.
- Is Rubén Vargas playing for Sevilla?
- No. Sevilla confirmed on 4 September that Vargas has parameniscitis in his right knee and he is ruled out for this match. Sevilla have scored one goal in each of the two games since he dropped out, after six in the three before it. Arouna Sangante is a doubt with an ankle sprain.
- What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo and Sevilla?
- The sides have not met since a goalless draw at Riazor in April 2018. In the eight competitive meetings before Deportivo's relegation, Sevilla won five and Deportivo none, with three draws and 3.62 goals a meeting. Both teams scored in six of those eight. The squads have turned over completely since.
- What are the calls for Deportivo vs Sevilla?
- The safer call is Deportivo or the draw at 1.38, confidence 4. The riskier call is both teams to score at 1.91, confidence 3: Deportivo have no clean sheet in four La Liga matches and Sevilla have scored in all five of theirs. Three further leans sit on the board, all pointing the same way.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 01:50 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 01:50 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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