Corinthians vs Estudiantes L.P.

Any Corinthians vs Estudiantes prediction starts with a first leg nobody won. Alexis Castro put Estudiantes in front inside four minutes in La Plata, Kaio Cesar levelled five minutes into the second half, and Hugo Souza kept it 1-1 with a save from Joaquin Correa's header in the 92nd minute. There is no away-goals rule: 90 minutes in Sao Paulo, then penalties.

Neither club arrives settled. Fernando Diniz, in charge since 6 April, has watched Corinthians lose four straight Brasileirao matches and slide to tenth, with seven players unavailable and Yuri Alberto's thigh still not right. That is pressure rather than crisis: the run stopped in Argentina, they won their group with 11 points from six matches, and they are unbeaten in their last three Libertadores games with two clean sheets. Alexander Medina, appointed in February after Eduardo Dominguez left for Brazil, came through his group with nine points from six.

The week splits them. Corinthians go to Flamengo at the Maracana on Sunday, three days out, with a losing league run to end and little room to rest anyone. Medina has already chosen the other way: Santiago Nunez, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, Ezequiel Piovi, Joaquin Correa, Guido Carrillo and Joaquin Tobio Burgos are being held back from the Clausura fixture with Platense. Estudiantes will be the fresher side. Corinthians will be the one at home, and away from La Plata this Estudiantes team has been a different, quieter thing.

Start with how little either side has scored in this competition. Corinthians have managed two goals in their last three Libertadores matches, never more than one in a game, with 0.41 xG a match. Estudiantes have been busier - 1.20 goals and 1.31 xG a match over five - but four of those goals came in two home games and a 3-0 at Universidad Catolica.

Then the venue. Over their last six competitive away matches Estudiantes have scored three goals in total, 0.50 a game, and failed to score in five of them; both teams scored in none of the six. Their last ten away matches in all competitions read two wins, one draw, seven defeats. Corinthians at home over their last seven competitive matches have conceded 0.86 a game.

Over 2.5 goals has landed once in Estudiantes' last five Libertadores matches and not once in Corinthians' last three. The three competitive meetings between these clubs have produced four goals in total. The competition has averaged 2.12 goals a match this season; nothing about this fixture argues for more.

Every one of Estudiantes' last five Libertadores matches passed 3.5 cards, and the three Corinthians have played averaged 5.7 between the two teams. Both sides foul at a similar rate and both have reasons to stop the game: Corinthians sit deep in this competition, Estudiantes have five players a booking away from missing a semi-final.

Jesus Valenzuela takes it. Across 108 matches he has shown 4.93 yellows and 0.10 reds a game, above the 4.59 yellows this competition has averaged over 145 matches this season, and he awards a penalty roughly every third match. Tomas Palacios, Ezequiel Piovi, Fernando Muslera, Gabriel Neves and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez are the five walking the line for Estudiantes; Matheuzinho is the one Corinthians player on two.

The corner counts are the clearest picture of how Corinthians have played this competition. In their last three Libertadores matches they won 1.3 corners a game and conceded 8.3, with 6.7 shots for and 13.3 against. Against Rosario Central away they took none at all and gave up twelve. That is a side content to defend and strike once.

Estudiantes are the mirror image: 6.4 corners won and 3.0 conceded over five, 14.0 shots for and 8.2 against. Neither pattern travels reliably, and the totals land in the same place - 9.7 and 9.4 corners a match, against a competition average of 8.97. There is no corners line on the board; this is context for how the goals arrive, not a call.