Bologna vs Torino

Any Bologna vs Torino prediction starts with the gap between what Bologna have created and what they have collected. Four Serie A matches, 1 point (W0 D1 L3), 17th in the table, two goals scored. And 4.96 xG behind those two goals, against Lazio, Atalanta, Sassuolo and Napoli - three of the division's better defences among them. The three defeats were all 0-1. Against Lazio at home they made 1.78 xG and lost to 0.63; at Atalanta they made 1.05 and lost to 0.15. This is not a team being outplayed. It is a team that cannot finish.

Both dugouts are new. Domenico Tedesco arrived on 2 June 2026, Ignazio Abate at Torino on 12 June, so neither side's numbers carry a season's worth of habit. Tedesco also inherited a rebuilt front line: Santiago Castro left for Roma for 35 million euros, Jonathan Rowe went to Atalanta, Jhon Lucumí to Juventus, and Artem Dovbyk and Roberto Piccoli came in on loan. Four matches is not long enough for a new centre-forward and a new coach to settle, which is the most plausible reading of a side making 14.0 shots a Serie A match and scoring 0.50 goals. Neither club is in crisis by the strict test - Bologna's run reads L, D, L, L rather than three straight defeats, and Torino's most recent result is a win - but Bologna are the side under pressure.

Torino arrive on 3 points from 3 played (W1 D0 L2) and a fortnight's rest, their last match a 2-1 win at Fiorentina built on 0.58 xG against 1.67. That is the Torino story in one line: they are being out-shot 17.3 to 8.3 a game in Serie A and surviving on finishing. Their xG conceded of 1.89 per match is the highest figure either side brings to the Dall'Ara. Bologna's problem is converting chances. Torino's problem is that they concede a great many of them.

Take the two shot profiles side by side. In Serie A this season Bologna have made 14.0 shots a match and faced 11.5. Torino have made 8.3 and faced 17.3. Nobody wins a season from the wrong end of that ratio, and Torino have not been winning: one victory in three league matches, and that one from 0.58 xG at Fiorentina. Their 2-1 at the Franchi was a finishing performance, not a football performance, and finishing performances do not repeat to order.

Bologna's side of it is the mirror image. Their 1.24 xG created and 1.05 conceded per Serie A match is a positive profile; at home over two matches it reads 1.83 created and 1.12 conceded. They out-shot Sassuolo 21-15 and drew 2-2, out-shot Lazio 14-10 and lost 0-1, out-shot Atalanta 16-6 and lost 0-1. Only the trip to Napoli - 0.25 xG, five shots - was a genuinely poor performance, and that was away from home last weekend.

So we expect goals at both ends without expecting a flood. Torino have scored in all three Serie A matches and conceded in all three; both teams have scored in all three and all three went over 2.5. Bologna have had only one match over 2.5 in four, but their opponents so far have been the division's tighter sides. Six of the seven Serie A matches these two have played stayed under 3.5, the 2-2 with Sassuolo the exception. Three goals, split 2-1, is the shape we would write down.

Bologna's Serie A matches have been the busier ones for the officials: 3.5 cards a match across four, above the 3.24 league average, with four cards in the home defeat to Lazio and three in the Sassuolo draw. Torino's three have averaged 1.7, and they themselves have taken one yellow in three matches - 0.3 a game, the lowest figure on either side of this board.

That combination pulls in two directions and the samples are small, three matches and four. With no referee appointed there is no discipline profile to lean on either. We keep cards as analysis and put nothing on the board.

The corner counts follow the shot counts. Bologna's four Serie A matches have averaged 11.0 corners and gone over 9.5 in three of them - ten of their own against Sassuolo, ten conceded at Napoli when they were pinned back. Torino's three have averaged 7.0 and not one has reached 9.5, which fits a side that neither builds sustained pressure nor gets forced into long defensive spells until late.

Bologna win 5.0 corners a Serie A match and concede 6.0; Torino win 3.3 and concede 3.7. Against the 9.27 league average the two profiles roughly cancel, and with three matches of Torino data we are not putting a number on it. Analysis only.