Who is favourite for Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Atletico-MG. The market prices them at 1.88 to win the match, a 49% chance, against 23% for Santos and 28% for the draw. We make it 48-28-24. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last seven competitive home matches (W4 D3) and have taken 2.4 points per game across their last ten at this venue.

What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos. Atletico-MG have to chase, having lost the first leg 2-0, and have scored 1.86 per game across their last seven competitive home matches. Santos carry a real counter in Gabriel Barbosa, who has scored in four consecutive matches in this competition. That leaves Santos through 3-2 on aggregate.

Is Neymar playing for Santos?

No. Neymar suffered a grade 2 tear in his right thigh against Palmeiras on 2 September and is expected to be out for at least a month, missing both quarter-final legs. Santos have not missed him: they won 3-2 at Internacional and 2-0 in the first leg without him.

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Santos?

In the eight competitive meetings on record, Santos have won three, Atletico-MG two and three were drawn. They have averaged 1.75 goals per meeting, with both sides scoring in three of the eight and only one passing 2.5 goals. Santos won the last two without conceding, 1-0 in April and 2-0 in the first leg.

What do Atletico-MG need to reach the semi-finals?

Three goals. Santos won the first leg 2-0 at Vila Belmiro, so an Atletico-MG win by two takes the tie to penalties and a win by three or more takes them through outright. Anything less and Santos advance. There is no away-goals rule in this competition.

Atletico-MG vs Santos preview: a football on the grass at dusk under stadium floodlights

FootballCONMEBOL Sudamericana — Quarter-finals

Atletico-MG vs Santos

Wed 16 Sept · 19:00Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte

AI deep previewGenerated 13 Sept 2026match#conmebol-sudamericana#quarter-finals#arena-mrv

Atletico-MGHome

SantosAway

Home side first and left in every table.

In short

The call: Atletico-MG to win the night. Unbeaten in seven competitive home matches (W4 D3), and a 2-0 deficit means they cannot sit.
The one stat: 2.4 points per game across Atletico-MG's last ten at this venue: seven wins, three draws, no defeats, 19 scored and 7 conceded.
The risk: Only one of the last eight meetings passed 2.5 goals, and Santos have four clean sheets in their last seven away matches.
The calls: Safer: Atletico-MG on the level handicap at 1.38. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 2.25. Four more leans on the board.

The situation

Any Atletico-MG vs Santos prediction has to start with the aggregate. Santos won the first leg 2-0 at Vila Belmiro, so Atletico-MG arrive at Arena MRV needing two goals to reach penalties and three to reach the semi-finals. That is the whole match. Eduardo Domínguez, appointed on 26 February, has Atletico-MG seventh in the Brazilian top flight on 39 points from 26 matches; Cuca, appointed by Santos on 19 March and once the coach who won Atletico-MG the 2013 continental title, has his side 14th. For Santos this is the last trophy left on the table.

Neither club is in trouble. Atletico-MG beat Fluminense 3-1 on Saturday and are unbeaten in their last seven competitive home matches (W4 D3, 13 scored, 6 conceded). Santos were unbeaten in four competitive matches before Saturday, when they beat Cruzeiro 2-1 for a third straight league win. The two defeats in Atletico-MG's recent run, 0-2 at São Paulo and 0-2 at Vila Belmiro, both came away from Belo Horizonte.

The team news cuts both ways. Everson fractured a foot against Cruzeiro on 25 August and is not expected back until October; in the five competitive matches since, Atletico-MG have conceded seven, 1.40 a game against 0.93 across their counted last fifteen. Gabriel Delfim, an academy product, keeps goal. Against that, Tomás Cuello is back from a one-match suspension and Lyanco has been cleared after a plantar fascia rupture. Santos are without Neymar, who tore a right thigh muscle against Palmeiras on 2 September, and have won every competitive match since he went down.

The markets

Safer call

Asian handicap

Atletico-MG 0

1.38Confidence 4/5

We make Atletico-MG 48% to win against the market's 49%, and this shape voids the 28% draw. They are unbeaten in seven competitive home matches (W4 D3) and have taken 2.4 points per game across their last ten at this venue, with Cuello back from suspension.

EvidenceGoals table The numbers that matter Probable XIs

Riskier call

Total goals

Over 2.5

2.25Confidence 3/5

Atletico-MG need three goals to win the tie and two to force penalties, so this cannot stay shut. Their last seven competitive home matches produced 19 goals, 2.71 a game; Santos average 2.40 in this competition. We make three or more 46% against the market's 42%.

EvidenceGoals table xG trend The numbers that matter

Result & goals

Match result
Atletico-MGPrice 1.88
3/5
Our 48% for an Atletico-MG win sits right on the market's 49%: unbeaten in seven competitive home matches, 2.4 points per game across ten at this venue, and a Santos side that has to defend for 90 minutes rather than play.
EvidenceGoals table The numbers that matter Team news
Double chance
Atletico-MG or drawPrice 1.22
4/5
We make home or draw 76%. Atletico-MG have not lost a competitive home match in seven (W4 D3, 13 scored and 6 conceded) and have gone ten at this venue without defeat, 19 scored and 7 conceded.
EvidenceGoals table The numbers that matter
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.38
4/5
Atletico-MG's last seven competitive home matches produced 19 goals, 2.71 a game, and five of the seven passed 2.5. With the tie live at two goals and the home side forced forward, we make two or more 72% against the market's 68%.
EvidenceGoals table xG trend
Both teams to score
YesPrice 2.00
3/5
Gabriel Delfim keeps goal again and Atletico-MG have conceded 1.40 a game without Everson, while both sides scored in five of Atletico-MG's last seven competitive home matches. With the hosts committed forward, we make both scoring 50% against the market's 46%.
EvidenceGoals table Team news xG trend

Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.

Match sheet

Kick-off: 19:00 Belo Horizonte time; Wednesday
Tie: Santos lead 2-0; level on aggregate goes to penalties
Referee: Facundo Tello; Argentine crew, Hernán Mastrangelo on VAR
Rest: 4 days each; both played on Saturday
Absent: Everson, Neymar; foot fracture and thigh tear, both due back in October

Part one

Analysis

Why a side that has scored 1.00 a game in this competition is still favoured, and why three goals is our number.

01Goals

The shape of the night is set by the scoreboard. Santos can draw, can lose by one, and still go through, so they will defend the way they have defended on the road all season: 0.86 conceded per game across their last seven away matches, with four clean sheets in them. Atletico-MG have no version of this match in which they sit. They have scored 1.86 per game across their last seven competitive home matches and taken 2.4 points per game across their last ten at this venue, seven wins and three draws with no defeats.

The competition's own numbers flatter Santos badly. Across five Sudamericana matches they have scored 2.40 a game and conceded 0.80, with 15.2 shots per match; Atletico-MG, in three, have scored 1.00 and conceded 1.33 with 10.0 shots. Read cold, that is a mismatch. Read with the venue and the deficit attached, it is not: the market makes Atletico-MG 49% to win and we make them 48%, and there is no gap to argue about.

Three goals is our number. Atletico-MG have to open the game up, and Gabriel Barbosa, scorer in four consecutive matches in this competition, is exactly the forward who punishes that. Their last seven competitive home matches produced 19 goals, 2.71 a game, with five of the seven passing 2.5. Over 2.5 is priced at 42%; we make it closer to 46%. The counter-argument sits in the head-to-head, and it is a real one.

Santos score 2.40 a game in this competition and Atletico-MG 1.00, but the venue splits say 1.86 against 1.71 once the ground is taken into account.

Sample: CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026: Atletico-MG 3 matches, Santos 5. Splits are home and away form over 7 competitive matches.

Metric	Atletico-MGHome	SantosAway
Goals scored per game	1.01.86 at home	2.41.71 away
Goals conceded per game	1.330.86 at home	0.80.86 away
xG created per game	1.19	2.16
Both teams scored	33%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	33%	60%

Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.

Santos have created more all season: 1.73 xG a game against Atletico-MG's 1.47, and conceded 0.95 against 1.08.

Sample: this season's competitive matches with published xG: Atletico-MG 7, Santos 10

Atletico-MGHome

avg xG 1.47 · avg xGA 1.08

2.01.8

1–2W

Palmeiras (A)

1.10.7

2–2D

Remo (A)

1.71.5

0–1W

RB Bragantino (A)

2.50.4

3–0W

Gremio (H)

0.71.3

2–2D

RB Bragantino (H)

0.81.2

0–0D

Internacional (A)

1.50.6

2–1W

Vitoria (H)

SantosAway

avg xG 1.73 · avg xGA 0.95

2.40.4

1–4W

UCV (A)

1.70.9

2–2D

Chapecoense-sc (H)

3.81.9

4–2W

UCV (H)

1.31.1

0–2L

Atletico Paranaense (H)

1.81.1

2–1W

Macara (H)

1.91.0

0–3W

Vasco DA Gama (A)

0.60.6

0–0D

Macara (A)

1.20.2

1–1D

Mirassol (H)

1.20.8

0–1W

Corinthians (A)

1.41.3

2–3W

Internacional (A)

xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.

Eight competitive meetings, 1.75 goals each: Santos three wins, Atletico-MG two, three draws, both sides scoring in only three and just one passing 2.5 goals.

Atletico-MG

Draws

Santos

9 Sept 2026·CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Santos2–0Atletico-MG
11 Apr 2026·Serie A
Santos1–0Atletico-MG
14 Sept 2025·Serie A
Atletico-MG1–1Santos
17 Apr 2025·Serie A
Santos2–0Atletico-MG
27 Aug 2023·Serie A
Atletico-MG2–0Santos
23 Apr 2023·Serie A
Santos0–0Atletico-MG
6 Oct 2022·Serie A
Santos1–2Atletico-MG
11 Jun 2022·Serie A
Atletico-MG1–1Santos

Home side listed first. Winner in bold.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Asian handicap
Atletico-MG 0Safer
Price 1.384/5
Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 2.253/5
Match result
Atletico-MG
Price 1.883/5
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw
Price 1.224/5
Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.384/5
Both teams to score
Yes
Price 2.003/5

02Cards

This has not been a heated tie. The first leg produced no cards at all. Across Atletico-MG's three Sudamericana matches the count is 1.7 per match, and 3.8 across Santos's five, against a 5.03 average in this competition's 148 matches this season. Facundo Tello has the whistle, with an Argentine crew and Hernán Mastrangelo on VAR.

A home side chasing two goals and an away side protecting a lead is the classic recipe for late bookings, and Santos have shown 1.6 a game in this competition to Atletico-MG's 0.3. But neither run is close to the competition average, and nothing here is firm enough to build a call on.

Both runs are quiet: 1.7 cards per Atletico-MG match and 3.8 per Santos match in this competition, against a 5.03 average.

Sample: CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026: Atletico-MG 3 matches with statistics, Santos 5

Metric	Atletico-MGHome	SantosAway
Cards shown per game	0.3	1.6
Cards in their matches	1.7	3.8
Matches over 3.5 cards	0%	40%

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

03Corners

The corner count is the one place Atletico-MG have been comprehensively outplayed in this competition: 3.3 won and 7.7 conceded across three matches, an 11.0 total with two of the three going past 9.5. Santos are the mirror image, 4.8 won and 3.8 conceded across five.

Expect that to invert on Wednesday. A side chasing two goals in its own stadium wins corners, and Atletico-MG have taken 4.4 a game across fourteen competitive matches with statistics. It is useful for reading the game state rather than anything else, and the board carries no corners line.

Atletico-MG have conceded 7.7 corners a game in this competition and won 3.3 - the pressure in their three ties came the other way.

Sample: CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026: Atletico-MG 3 matches with statistics, Santos 5

Metric	Atletico-MGHome	SantosAway
Corners won per game	3.3	4.8
Corners conceded per game	7.7	3.8
Matches over 9.5 corners	67%	40%

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

04The numbers that matter

2.4
points per game at this venue: Seven wins and three draws in Atletico-MG's last ten competitive matches at home, 19 scored and 7 conceded, no defeats.; 3
goals Atletico-MG need to win the tie: Santos lead 2-0 from Vila Belmiro. Two takes it to penalties, three takes it outright. There is no version where Atletico-MG hold what they have.; 1.40
conceded per game without Everson: Five competitive matches since the goalkeeper's foot fracture on 25 August: seven conceded, against 0.93 a game across the counted last fifteen.; 2.40
Santos goals per game in this competition: Twelve scored and four conceded across five Sudamericana matches, at 15.2 shots a game. The counter is real.

Two of those are ours rather than anyone's official count. The without-Everson concession rate comes from reading Atletico-MG's five competitive matches since 25 August; the goals needed are simply the arithmetic of a 2-0 first leg.

Part two

Who plays, and how

Everson's fracture, Cuello's return, and the Santos front pair that already punished this defence once.

05Team news

Atletico-MG have conceded 1.40 a game in the five competitive matches without Everson, against 0.93 across their counted last fifteen.

Atletico-MGHome

EversonGK
fractured left foot, due back in October
GoalsResult
Out
LyancoCB
cleared after a plantar fascia rupture, out since 12 August
Goals
Doubtful
Léo DuarteCB
right thigh muscle injury
Goals
Out
Ruan TressoldiCB
left thigh muscle injury
Goals
Out
Tomás PérezCM
pubalgia
Result
Out
Thiago BorbasST
right thigh muscle injury
Goals
Out

SantosAway

NeymarAM
grade 2 right thigh tear suffered on 2 September
Goals
Out

Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Verified against club and national reports published between 5 and 13 September. Tomás Cuello has served his one-match suspension and returns for Atletico-MG.

06Expected XI

Cuello's return is the change that matters: Atletico-MG went to Vila Belmiro without him, had 58% of the ball and managed three shots on target.

Atletico-MGHome

Eduardo Domínguez

4-2-3-1Probable

SantosAway

Cuca

4-4-2Probable

Goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Based on the first-leg XIs and the returns reported this week.

07Shape and plan

Atletico-MG cannot wait

Two goals take this to penalties, three take it outright, and Santos know it. Domínguez had 58% of the ball at Vila Belmiro and produced three shots on target from it. Cuello's return gives him a right side that beats a man rather than recycling, and the full-backs will start high rather than arrive late.

Delfim's first big night

Everson has not played since 25 August. Atletico-MG have conceded 1.40 a game across the five competitive matches since, against 0.93 over their counted last fifteen, and two of those five finished 0-2. Santos took 14 shots in the first leg and put seven on target; they will shoot early and often.

Gabriel Barbosa against a high line

Santos have scored 2.40 a game across five Sudamericana matches from 15.2 shots. With Atletico-MG committed, Cuca's front pair gets the one thing Santos rarely find in the league: space to run into. One goal on the counter ends the tie as a contest.

The corner swing

Atletico-MG have conceded 7.7 corners a game in this competition and won only 3.3. At home and chasing, that flips: 13 goals in their last seven competitive home matches says the delivery lands when they are the side doing the pushing.

08Three duels

Tomás Cuello

Atletico-MG · RW

The width Atletico-MG lacked in the first leg, and the player who turns possession into a cross rather than a sideways pass.

7 goals and 7 assists in 41 matches in 2026

Mateo Cassierra

Atletico-MG · ST

The January signing who has to hold the ball up long enough for a back four pushed 40 yards upfield to follow him.

Bernard

Atletico-MG · AM

Atletico-MG's most productive player in this competition, working in the pocket between Willian Arão and Christian Oliva.

3 goals in this Sudamericana campaign

Gabriel Barbosa

Santos · ST

The whole Santos counter-attack in one player, and the reason a Galo back line playing 40 yards up the pitch is a risk.

scored in four consecutive matches in this competition

Gabriel Brazão

Santos · GK

Santos have conceded 0.80 a game in this competition; he is the reason a two-goal lead has felt bigger than it reads.

2 clean sheets in 5 Sudamericana matches

Part three

The call

Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.

09How it could go

Three ways this match goes

Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first

48%chanceMost likely
Atletico-MG take the night
Domínguez pushes both full-backs high from the first whistle and Cuello gives the right side the edge it lacked at Vila Belmiro. Atletico-MG score before the hour, Santos drop deeper, and Gabriel Barbosa pinches one on the break. 2-1 on the night, 3-2 to Santos on aggregate.
28%chance
Santos strangle it
Cuca keeps Willian Arão and Luan Peres deep and Santos do what they have done on the road all season: four clean sheets in seven away matches at 0.86 conceded. Atletico-MG win the corners but not the chances, and the night finishes level.
24%chance
The counter lands first
Atletico-MG commit early and Santos, at 2.40 goals a game in this competition, take the first clean chance. With 1.40 conceded a game behind them since Everson's fracture, Atletico-MG are chasing four goals inside half an hour. The stadium empties long before the whistle.

The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.

Atletico-MG have not lost at home in seven. But two goals is a mountain when the other side only has to stand still, and nobody has stood still better on the road this season than Santos.

DeepPreviews analysis desk

10The verdict

Atletico-MG win the night, Santos win the tie

We make it Atletico-MG 48%, the draw 28%, Santos 24%, effectively the market's 49-28-23, and there is no gap that needs explaining. Neither club is in trouble: Atletico-MG beat Fluminense 3-1 on Saturday and are unbeaten in seven competitive home matches (W4 D3), while Cuca's Santos have taken three straight league wins. Both coaches are more than six months into the job, so neither result is a bounce. The two player checks pointed opposite ways and both stood up. Everson's foot fracture on 25 August has cost Atletico-MG 1.40 goals a game across the five competitive matches since, against 0.93 over their counted last fifteen, which is why we do not have them keeping a clean sheet. Neymar's thigh tear has cost Santos nothing: they won 3-2 at Internacional and 2-0 in the first leg without him, so he is graded down, not up. Cuello's return from suspension restores the width Atletico-MG did not have at Vila Belmiro, where 58% of the ball produced three shots on target. Needing two goals to reach penalties and three to advance, Atletico-MG have to play the game Santos want them to play, and that is the reasoning behind both calls: the win on the night, and three goals in the match.

Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos

What would change our mind

If Lyanco is not passed fit, the level handicap gets harder: Atletico-MG have already conceded 1.40 a game without Everson.
If Cuca picks wide forwards rather than a front two, Santos sit deeper and the over 2.5 call is the one that weakens.
If it is goalless at half-time, the goals call is the one under threat, not the result.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Atletico-MG vs Santos?: Atletico-MG. The market prices them at 1.88 to win the match, a 49% chance, against 23% for Santos and 28% for the draw. We make it 48-28-24. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last seven competitive home matches (W4 D3) and have taken 2.4 points per game across their last ten at this venue.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Santos?: Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos. Atletico-MG have to chase, having lost the first leg 2-0, and have scored 1.86 per game across their last seven competitive home matches. Santos carry a real counter in Gabriel Barbosa, who has scored in four consecutive matches in this competition. That leaves Santos through 3-2 on aggregate.
Is Neymar playing for Santos?: No. Neymar suffered a grade 2 tear in his right thigh against Palmeiras on 2 September and is expected to be out for at least a month, missing both quarter-final legs. Santos have not missed him: they won 3-2 at Internacional and 2-0 in the first leg without him.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Santos?: In the eight competitive meetings on record, Santos have won three, Atletico-MG two and three were drawn. They have averaged 1.75 goals per meeting, with both sides scoring in three of the eight and only one passing 2.5 goals. Santos won the last two without conceding, 1-0 in April and 2-0 in the first leg.
What do Atletico-MG need to reach the semi-finals?: Three goals. Santos won the first leg 2-0 at Vila Belmiro, so an Atletico-MG win by two takes the tie to penalties and a win by three or more takes them through outright. Anything less and Santos advance. There is no away-goals rule in this competition.

Written 13 Sept 2026, 07:20 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 07:20 UTC.

AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.