vs
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Wed 16 Sept · 19:00Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Powered by statistical analytics hubProBettingHub · PRO Analytics hub for everyone
Atletico MadridHomeOsasunaAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Atletico Madrid to win 1-0. We make it 57 percent Atletico, 25 percent draw, 18 percent Osasuna.
- The one stat
- Osasuna: seven points and one goal conceded in three LaLiga games with Oroz and Herrando, no points and seven conceded in the two without them.
- The risk
- Atletico have no fit centre-forward and play at Real Sociedad three days earlier. Rotation could flatten an attack already down to 0.91 xG a game.
- The calls
- Safer: Atletico on the quarter line at 1.29. Riskier: under 2.5 goals at 2.12. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Neither side arrives happy. Atletico Madrid have lost their last two competitive matches, 0-3 at Athletic Club and 1-2 at Liverpool, and Diego Simeone spent the Anfield press conference talking about a building phase. That is two defeats, not three, so this is not a crisis, but it is a team with a problem it cannot solve from the bench: Alexander Sorloth has been out since mid-August and has missed all five competitive matches, Julian Alvarez is still building fitness and has not started, and Jonathan David only arrived on loan on 1 September. Simeone has been playing Ademola Lookman as a centre-forward. Seven points from four LaLiga matches (W2 D1 L1) flatters it. The underlying figure is 0.91 xG created per LaLiga game against 1.51 conceded.
Osasuna's problem has a date on it. They took seven points from their opening three LaLiga matches and conceded one goal. Then, at Getafe on 31 August, Aimar Oroz pulled a left hamstring and centre-back Jorge Herrando went off with an adductor injury. Since: 2-5 at Alaves, 0-2 at home to Espanyol. No points from two, seven goals conceded, and behind at half-time in both. Luis Miguel Ramis, appointed on 10 June on a two-year deal and making his LaLiga debut as a head coach, has lost the balance he had. Moi Gomez and Valentin Rosier are also out with muscle problems.
The Elo gap is 95 points to Atletico before home advantage, and our quality indices put Atletico at 72 percent current strength and 89 percent long-term in their main league against Osasuna's 50 and 52. Atletico have won six of the last eight competitive meetings and the last two at the Metropolitano finished 1-0 and 1-0. The one thing that muddies it: Atletico visit Real Sociedad on the Sunday, so Simeone comes into this on three days' rest with Pablo Barrios already doubtful.
The markets
Asian handicap
Atletico Madrid -0.25
Atletico to win with half returned if it is drawn: our 57 percent against the market's 64 leaves the outright thin, but the draw insurance covers the 25 percent we give a stalemate, and Osasuna have trailed at half-time in both away matches.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam newsHead-to-head
Total goals
Under 2.5
We make under 2.5 about 56 percent against the market's 45: Atletico create 0.91 xG per LaLiga game, Osasuna score 1.00, and only three of eight meetings have gone past 2.5 goals.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
Atletico MadridPrice 1.46
3/5Our 57 percent sits just under the market's 64, which is why this is a lean rather than the call: Atletico have won six of the last eight meetings and the last two at home 1-0 and 1-0.
EvidenceHead-to-headGoals tableTeam news
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.43
4/5We make this near 78 percent against the market's 65: eight meetings have averaged 2.25 goals, Osasuna's LaLiga matches total 2.60 a game and Atletico's home xG is 0.85.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Both teams to score
NoPrice 1.89
3/5Our 54 percent against the market's 49: both teams scored in only two of eight meetings, Osasuna failed to score in two of five LaLiga matches and four of their five goals came from one player.
EvidenceHead-to-headGoals tableTeam news
1st-half Total goals
Under 1.5Price 1.50
3/5We make it about 70 percent against the market's 62: Atletico were level at half-time in three of four LaLiga matches, Osasuna behind in three of five, and Osasuna's weighted first-half scoring rate is 0.39 a game.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 19:00 Madrid time
- Wednesday
- Weather
- Clear, about 25 °C
- Madrid high of 28 °C, dry
- Rest
- 3 days vs 4
- Atletico at Real Sociedad on Sunday, Osasuna hosted Espanyol on Saturday
- Table
- 7th vs 8th
- Atletico 7 points from 4, Osasuna 7 from 5
Part one
Analysis
Why a bad Atletico attack still beats a broken Osasuna defence, and why the goals stay low while it happens.
01Goals
Start with what Atletico Madrid actually create rather than what they have scored. Seven goals in four LaLiga matches reads as 1.75 a game. The xG behind it is 0.91. At home the split is starker still: four goals in two LaLiga matches, but 0.85 xG created and 1.88 conceded, which is a 2-2 against Villarreal where the visitors ran up 3.60 xG and a 2-0 against Malaga built on 0.92. This is a side finishing above its chances because it has no centre-forward to build chances around.
Osasuna are the mirror image and it has not helped them. They create 1.68 xG per LaLiga game and concede only 0.82, yet they have scored 1.00 a game and shipped 1.60. Four of their five LaLiga goals are Ante Budimir's. Away from El Sadar the numbers fall apart: two matches, four scored, six conceded, behind at half-time in both, no clean sheet. The Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction therefore leans on a narrow home win rather than a comfortable one.
The meeting history says the same. Eight competitive meetings have averaged 2.25 goals. Both teams scored in two of them. Only three went past 2.5. Atletico's last two home wins in the fixture were 1-0 and 1-0.
Atletico have scored 1.75 per LaLiga game on 0.91 xG; Osasuna create 1.68 xG and score 1.00. Both numbers point at fewer goals than the scorelines suggest.
Sample: LaLiga 2026/27 — Atletico 4 matches, Osasuna 5; splits from 2 home and 2 away matches
| Metric | Atletico MadridHome | OsasunaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.752.0 at home | 1.02.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.51.0 at home | 1.63.0 away |
| xG created per game | 0.91 | 1.68 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Atletico have not cleared 1.02 xG in any LaLiga match this season. Osasuna's best two performances, 2.68 and 1.68 xG, came with Oroz and Herrando on the pitch.
Sample: LaLiga 2026/27, the 4 matches per side that carry xG, oldest first
Atletico MadridHome
avg xG 0.91 · avg xGA 1.52
2–0W
Malaga (H)
2–2D
Villarreal (H)
1–3W
Sevilla (A)
3–0L
Athletic Club (A)
OsasunaAway
avg xG 1.67 · avg xGA 0.82
0–0D
Levante (H)
1–2W
Celta Vigo (A)
1–0W
Getafe (H)
5–2L
Alaves (A)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Atletico Madrid have won six of the last eight competitive meetings, Osasuna two, none drawn; 2.25 goals a meeting, both teams scoring in only two of the eight.
6
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
2
Osasuna
12 May 2026·La Liga
Osasuna1–2Atletico Madrid18 Oct 2025·La Liga
Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna15 May 2025·La Liga
Osasuna2–0Atletico Madrid12 Jan 2025·La Liga
Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna19 May 2024·La Liga
Atletico Madrid1–4Osasuna28 Sept 2023·La Liga
Osasuna0–2Atletico Madrid21 May 2023·La Liga
Atletico Madrid3–0Osasuna29 Jan 2023·La Liga
Osasuna0–1Atletico Madrid
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Asian handicap
Atletico Madrid -0.25Safer
Price 1.294/5Total goals
Under 2.5Riskier
Price 2.123/5Match result
Atletico Madrid
Price 1.463/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.434/5Both teams to score
No
Price 1.893/51st-half Total goals
Under 1.5
Price 1.503/5
02Cards
Neither side is a card machine by LaLiga standards. Atletico's four LaLiga matches have averaged 4.0 cards in total, Osasuna's five 4.6, against a league average of 4.82 per match. Atletico take 2.2 a game and draw 1.8 from opponents; Osasuna take 2.4 and draw 2.2.
The fixture can spike, though. Six cards were shown in Pamplona in May, including a red, and Atletico's 2-2 with Villarreal in August produced four and a sending-off. The shape here points that way too: an Osasuna midfield without Oroz's line-breaking passes will foul more than it passes through, and the weighted season figures have them at 13.74 fouls a game to Atletico's 11.37. No referee has been appointed, so this stays analysis rather than a call.
Osasuna's LaLiga matches average 4.6 cards to Atletico's 4.0, both under the league's 4.82; Osasuna take 2.4 a game themselves.
Sample: LaLiga 2026/27 — Atletico 4 matches, Osasuna 5
| Metric | Atletico MadridHome | OsasunaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Cards drawn per game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Cards in the match | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 75% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Both sides are well under the league rate. Atletico's LaLiga matches have produced 8.0 corners in total, Osasuna's 7.4, against a league average of 9.89. Only one of Atletico's four LaLiga matches cleared 9.5, and one of Osasuna's five.
The territorial story is one-sided: Atletico win 5.2 a game and concede 2.8, Osasuna win 3.4 and concede 4.0. Expect Atletico camped in the final third without much to show for it, which is the pattern of their whole season. This chapter carries no call.
Atletico win 5.2 corners a LaLiga game to Osasuna's 3.4, yet their matches total only 8.0 and 7.4 against a league mean of 9.89.
Sample: LaLiga 2026/27 — Atletico 4 matches, Osasuna 5
| Metric | Atletico MadridHome | OsasunaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Corners conceded per game | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Corners in the match | 8.0 | 7.4 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 25% | 20% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 0.91
- Atletico xG created per LaLiga game
- Four LaLiga matches, no fit centre-forward in any of them. Their seven goals came from chances worth barely more than three.
- 7
- Osasuna goals conceded without Oroz, Herrando
- Two LaLiga matches since both limped off at Getafe on 31 August. In the three before, they conceded one in total.
- 2 of 8
- meetings where both teams scored
- Eight competitive meetings averaging 2.25 goals, only three past 2.5. This fixture does not open up.
The pattern is consistent across every scope we can measure: a home side that wins narrowly without playing well, and an away side whose numbers have collapsed in the fortnight since two starters were hurt. That is a one-goal night, not a rout.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Two injuries decided Osasuna's last fortnight, and Atletico still have nobody to play centre-forward.
05Team news
Osasuna have taken 0 points and conceded 7 in the two LaLiga matches without Oroz and Herrando, after 7 points and 1 conceded in the three with them.
Atletico MadridHome
Alexander SorlothST
muscle injury since mid-August, back around mid-October
Goals
OutPablo BarriosCM
low-grade muscle injury to the right leg, picked up at Liverpool
Result
DoubtfulJulian AlvarezST
building match fitness, yet to start this season
GoalsResult
Doubtful
OsasunaAway
Aimar OrozAM
left hamstring, injured at Getafe on 31 August
GoalsResult
OutJorge HerrandoCB
left adductor, injured in the same match
GoalsResult
OutMoi GomezMF
left hamstring
Goals
OutValentin RosierRB
muscle injury
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club medical reports and Spanish national outlets, 3-12 September 2026. Atletico's list may move again after their Sunday trip to Real Sociedad.
06Expected XI
Both elevens are projected from each side's most recent starting line-up; Atletico's has no recognised centre-forward, with Lookman leading the line.
Atletico MadridHome
Diego Simeone
OsasunaAway
Luis Miguel Ramis
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Barrios is doubtful; Alvarez is pushing for a first start of the season.
07Shape and plan
The missing number nine
Lookman has been asked to lead the line because Sorloth is out and Alvarez is not fit to start. It shows in the shot profile: 15.2 shots a LaLiga game for only 0.91 xG. Atletico get into the final third and then take the wrong shot. Against a back line missing Herrando that may be enough, but it caps the score.
Osasuna's rebuilt back four
Boyomo alongside Catena is not the pairing that conceded one goal in three matches. The two games since have brought seven, and both away trips have seen Osasuna behind by half-time. Giuliano Simeone attacking Bretones, with Llorente overlapping on the other side, is where Atletico's goal most likely comes from.
A first half that goes nowhere
Atletico have been level at the break in three of four LaLiga matches and ahead in one. Osasuna have trailed at half-time in three of five and in both away games. Osasuna's weighted first-half scoring rate is 0.39 a game. Expect a cagey opening 45 and the decisive moment after it.
Three days, two squads
Atletico play at Real Sociedad on Sunday and Simeone rotates when the calendar squeezes, with the Madrid derby following on 20 September. Osasuna have a day more and a thinner squad. The rest edge is Osasuna's; the depth edge is emphatically not.
08Three duels
Ademola Lookman
Atletico Madrid · ST
A wide forward playing centrally out of necessity. He drops off the centre-backs to receive, which suits a Catena pairing that wants someone to mark.
Atletico 0.91 xG per LaLiga game
Giuliano Simeone
Atletico Madrid · RM
The most reliable route to a goal: repeated runs at the Osasuna left back, with Atletico winning 5.2 corners a LaLiga game off that side.
Ante Budimir
Osasuna · ST
Osasuna's entire attack. Without Oroz feeding him, service has dried up and the team has scored twice in two matches.
4 of Osasuna's 5 LaLiga goals
Alejandro Catena
Osasuna · CB
Now the senior man in a back four without Herrando. Osasuna have conceded seven in the two matches since that pairing broke up.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 57%chanceMost likely
Atletico grind it out
A flat first half, nil-nil at the break, and Atletico finally find a way through a back four without Herrando in the second. Osasuna, with Budimir isolated and no Oroz behind him, never threaten Oblak. It finishes 1-0 or 2-0, as it did in the last two meetings here.
- 25%chance
Budimir steals a point
Atletico dominate territory, take 15 shots and score none of them. Budimir wins one header from Osasuna's three or four corners and Ramis's side hang on. Given Atletico have created 0.85 xG per home game, a goalless or 1-1 night is a live possibility rather than a freak.
- 18%chance
Osasuna spring the Metropolitano again
It has happened: Osasuna won 2-0 in Pamplona in May 2025 and 4-1 in Madrid in 2024. If Simeone rotates heavily after the Real Sociedad trip and Osasuna hit on the break, the two defeats in a row become three for Atletico and the pressure genuinely arrives.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Osasuna have conceded seven goals in the two matches since Oroz and Herrando limped off at Getafe. Atletico do not need to be good to win this. They need one goal and a clean sheet.
10The verdict
Atletico by one, on a night short of goals
We make it 57 percent Atletico Madrid, 25 percent draw, 18 percent Osasuna, against the market's 64, 22 and 14, and the small gap is deliberate: Atletico are not the side their seven goals in four LaLiga matches suggest. They have created 0.91 xG a game and 0.85 at home, with Sorloth out since mid-August, Alvarez not yet fit to start, Barrios doubtful after Anfield and a trip to Real Sociedad three days before this. Neither club is in a crisis on our test - two competitive defeats each, not three - and Simeone's position is not in question after fifteen years. What decides it is the with/without check on Osasuna: seven points and one goal conceded in the three LaLiga matches with Aimar Oroz and Jorge Herrando, then no points and seven conceded in the two without them, behind at half-time in both. Luis Miguel Ramis is three months into his first LaLiga job and has lost the balance that made the start look good. Add an Elo gap of 95 before home advantage, six wins from the last eight meetings and a fixture that has averaged 2.25 goals, and the answer is a narrow home win. Atletico 1-0, and we would rather take the quarter-goal line at 1.29 than the outright at 1.46.
What would change our mind
- If Alvarez is passed fit to start, raise the Atletico calls a notch and drop the under 2.5 lean to confidence 2.
- If Atletico take a heavy defeat at Real Sociedad and Simeone rotates six or more, the quarter-line safer call is the one to leave alone.
- If Oroz or Herrando are named in the Osasuna squad, the whole away-side case improves and under 2.5 becomes the weaker of our two calls.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Atletico Madrid. They are priced 1.46, an odds probability of 64 percent, against 6.73 for Osasuna. Our own numbers are a little cooler: 57 percent Atletico, 25 percent draw, 18 percent Osasuna. The Elo gap is 95 points in Atletico's favour before home advantage is counted.
- What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna. Atletico have created just 0.91 xG per LaLiga game and have had no fit centre-forward all season; Osasuna have scored 1.00 per LaLiga game across five matches, four of their five goals coming from Ante Budimir. The last two meetings at the Metropolitano finished 1-0 and 1-0.
- Is Aimar Oroz playing for Osasuna?
- No. Oroz tore a left hamstring at Getafe on 31 August and is out for several weeks, along with centre-back Jorge Herrando, who went off in the same match with an adductor injury. Osasuna took seven points and conceded one goal in the three LaLiga matches before that, then none from two and conceded seven after it.
- What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
- Atletico Madrid have won six of the last eight competitive meetings, Osasuna two, with no draws. Those eight games averaged 2.25 goals, both teams scored in only two of them and just three went past 2.5 goals. Atletico won the most recent meeting 2-1 in Pamplona in May.
- What are the calls for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- The safer call is Atletico on the quarter-goal line at 1.29: the win, with half returned on a draw. The riskier call is under 2.5 goals at 2.12, where our 56 percent sits above the market's 45 percent. Four more leans sit on the board, all on the same story.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 01:35 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
More previews
vs
Eredivisie · Round 6
Excelsior vs Utrecht
Utrecht have conceded 18 goals in five Eredivisie matches and their own supporters stopped the last one. Excelsior are fourth.
vs
Jupiler Pro League · Round 6
Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp
Brugge have won nine of their last ten home league matches. Antwerp have one point from their last three. Elo puts 193 points between them.
vs
La Liga · Round 5
Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Three goals between them in nine matches. Celta are favourites by default at Balaidos, and the total is where the real call sits.