vs
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Sat 19 Sept · 15:30Weserstadion, Bremen
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Werder BremenHomeFC AugsburgAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Werder Bremen to edge it at the Weserstadion, 2-1. The winner is close to a coin toss; the goals are not.
- The one stat
- Werder have scored and conceded in all three Bundesliga matches this season. Augsburg have scored 3.00 goals a game in theirs.
- The risk
- Werder have created 0.74 xG a game in the league against 1.94 conceded. Augsburg are 80 Elo points better and third in the table.
- The calls
- Safer: both teams to score. Riskier: over 2.5 goals. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Werder Bremen vs Augsburg prediction starts with two clubs pointed in opposite directions. Werder have four points from three Bundesliga matches (W1 D1 L1), a goal difference of minus one and tenth place: beaten 4-1 at Freiburg, a 3-1 win over RB Leipzig at the Weserstadion, then a 1-1 draw at Köln in which Karl Hein saved a penalty. Daniel Thioune, in charge since 4 February 2026, kept them up last season and has asked for 40 points as quickly as possible this one.
Augsburg are third with seven points from three (W2 D1 L0) and a goal difference of plus six: 3-0 against Schalke, 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, 2-2 at home with Bayer Leverkusen. Manuel Baum, appointed on 1 December 2025 and since given a contract through 2027/28, has them scoring 3.00 goals a game in the league. Our long-term quality index rates them 84% against Werder's 45%, and the Elo scale has them 80 points clear at 1764 to 1685, a gap home advantage at this ground roughly cancels.
Neither club is in crisis. Werder are unbeaten in two, Augsburg in four, both coaches are settled and neither side played midweek: six days of rest for the hosts, seven for the visitors. That is why the market sits so tight at 2.33, 3.75 and 2.74. The interesting numbers are not the result ones. Werder have kept no clean sheet in the league this season. Augsburg have conceded in two of three while facing 21.0 shots a match.
The markets
Both teams to score
Yes
Werder have scored and conceded in all three Bundesliga matches this season with no clean sheet, and Augsburg have scored in all three; we make it about 72% against the market's 64%.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIs
Total goals
Over 2.5
All three of Augsburg's Bundesliga matches and two of Werder's three have gone over 2.5, and the league is averaging 3.85 goals across 27 matches; we make it about 70% against the market's 62%.
EvidenceGoals tableCorners
Result & goals
Match result
Werder BremenPrice 2.33
2/5Werder have four points from three and beat RB Leipzig 3-1 at the Weserstadion, and home advantage is worth about the 80 Elo points Augsburg hold; we make the home win 40%, the same as the market.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Double chance
Werder Bremen or drawPrice 1.43
3/5Our home and draw probabilities add to 66% against the market's 65%, and Werder are unbeaten in two with Füllkrug leading the line and six days of rest.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIs
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.15
5/5Every one of the six Bundesliga matches these two have played this season produced at least two goals; we make it about 88% against the market's 81%.
EvidenceGoals table
Total goals
Under 4.5Price 1.24
4/5Four of those six Bundesliga matches finished under 4.5 goals and Werder's league games have averaged 3.67 in total; we make it about 78% against the market's 75%.
EvidenceGoals tableDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 15:30 Bremen time
- Saturday
- Venue
- Weserstadion, Bremen
- Weather
- 16 °C, overcast
- 16% chance of rain at kick-off, breeze around 21 km/h
- Rest
- 6 days vs 7
- Neither side played midweek
- Table
- 10th vs 3rd
- 4 points from 3 against 7 from 3
Part one
Analysis
Three chapters: why the goals lines read better than the winner, why the card count sits unusually low, and why Augsburg's corner numbers describe their shape.
01Goals
Werder's league numbers split cleanly. In three Bundesliga matches they have scored 1.67 a game and conceded 2.00, both teams have scored in all three, and two of the three cleared 2.5 goals. Underneath sits the warning: 0.74 xG created per game against 1.94 conceded. The 3-1 against Leipzig came from 0.95 xG against 1.50. That was a good afternoon, not a new level.
Augsburg are the opposite kind of outlier. Nine goals in three league matches, 3.00 a game against 1.00 conceded, from 2.42 xG created and 2.16 allowed. They have won both away trips this season by an aggregate 6-1, and all three of their Bundesliga matches went over 2.5 goals. They also concede chances in volume: 21.0 shots a match against them in the league, 30 of them from Leverkusen alone on Saturday.
The league backdrop is loud. The Bundesliga is averaging 3.85 goals a match over 27 matches this season, with 81% over 2.5 and 59% both teams scoring. Every one of the six league matches these two have played produced at least two goals, and five of those six had both sides on the scoresheet. Both teams to score is priced 1.44, a 64% market read; we make it nearer 72%.
Both teams scored in all three of Werder's Bundesliga matches and two of Augsburg's three; Augsburg score 3.00 a game, Werder concede 2.00.
Sample: Bundesliga 2026/27, 3 matches each; splits are Werder at home (1) and Augsburg away (2), competitive
| Metric | Werder BremenHome | FC AugsburgAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.673.0 at home | 3.03.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.01.0 at home | 1.00.5 away |
| xG created per game | 0.74 | 2.42 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.94 | 2.16 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Augsburg have won four of the last eight competitive meetings to Werder's two, with two draws and 2.38 goals a meeting, and took the most recent 3-1 at the Weserstadion.
2
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
2 May 2026·Bundesliga
Werder Bremen1–3FC Augsburg20 Dec 2025·Bundesliga
FC Augsburg0–0Werder Bremen19 Jan 2025·Bundesliga
Werder Bremen0–2FC Augsburg24 Aug 2024·Bundesliga
FC Augsburg2–2Werder Bremen27 Apr 2024·Bundesliga
FC Augsburg0–3Werder Bremen9 Dec 2023·Bundesliga
Werder Bremen2–0FC Augsburg4 Mar 2023·Bundesliga
FC Augsburg2–1Werder Bremen9 Sept 2022·Bundesliga
Werder Bremen0–1FC Augsburg
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Both teams to score
YesSafer
Price 1.444/5Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 1.503/5Match result
Werder Bremen
Price 2.332/5Double chance
Werder Bremen or draw
Price 1.433/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.155/5Total goals
Under 4.5
Price 1.244/5
02Cards
Cards are the quiet part of this fixture. Across three Bundesliga matches each, both sides have collected exactly 1.0 card a game and drawn 1.0 from their opponents: 2.0 cards a match in Werder's league games and 2.0 in Augsburg's. Over 3.5 cards has not landed once in either side's three.
That is a long way under the 3.48 cards a match the Bundesliga has averaged over 27 matches this season. The foul counts agree: Werder commit 10.50 a game in their weighted season averages and Augsburg 9.36. No referee has been appointed yet, so there is no official's profile to add, and there is no card line on our board.
Both sides' Bundesliga matches have produced exactly 2.0 cards a game, well under the league's 3.48, and neither has cleared 3.5 cards once in three.
Sample: Bundesliga 2026/27, 3 matches with card data each
| Metric | Werder BremenHome | FC AugsburgAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown to them per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Cards shown to opponents per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 0% | 0% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Corners are where Augsburg's shape shows. Their three Bundesliga matches have averaged 14.3 corners, 5.7 won and 8.7 conceded, and all three cleared 9.5. Leverkusen alone took 14 of them on Saturday and still only drew.
Werder's league matches sit on 11.0 a game, 4.0 won and 7.0 conceded, with two of three over 9.5. The league average is 11.44 with 67% over 9.5. Both sides concede more corners than they win, which is the honest description of two teams that defend deeper than they would like. This chapter stays analysis: there is no corners line on the board.
Augsburg's Bundesliga matches average 14.3 corners against Werder's 11.0, and all three of Augsburg's cleared 9.5 against the league's 11.44.
Sample: Bundesliga 2026/27, 3 matches with corner data each
| Metric | Werder BremenHome | FC AugsburgAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 4.0 | 5.7 |
| Corners conceded per game | 7.0 | 8.7 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 11.0 | 14.3 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 67% | 100% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 3 of 3
- Werder league games with both teams scoring
- They have scored and conceded in every Bundesliga match this season and kept no clean sheet in them.
- 3.00
- Augsburg goals per game in the Bundesliga
- Nine in three: 3-0 against Schalke, 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, 2-2 with Bayer Leverkusen, against a league average of 3.85 a match.
- 0.74
- Werder xG created per game
- Against 1.94 conceded in this season's Bundesliga matches. They have been taking more points than the chances they make.
- 80
- Elo points between the two sides
- Augsburg 1764 against Werder 1685. Home advantage on that scale is worth roughly 60 to 80 points, which is why the market is this tight.
Every strong number here points at goals rather than at a winner. Augsburg create more and concede more; Werder create least of all and have been scoring anyway. The quality gap is real, 84% to 45% on our long-term index, and it has not been producing quiet afternoons for either club.
Part two
Who plays, and how
One long-term absence has cost Werder chance creation rather than points, and Augsburg's back three is whole again.
05Team news
Werder miss Jens Stage until 2027 plus Topp and Njinmah, and carry three doubts; Augsburg list three doubts and no confirmed absentee.
Werder BremenHome
Jens StageMF
thigh injury since before the opening match, not due back until 2027
Goals
OutKeke ToppFW
Goals
OutJustin NjinmahFW
Goals
OutSenne LynenMF
Result
DoubtfulMoussa N'DiayeDF
missed the draw at Köln
Result
DoubtfulFelix AguDF
Result
Doubtful
FC AugsburgAway
Anton KadeMF
Goals
DoubtfulSteve MouniéFW
Goals
DoubtfulTim BreithauptMF
Result
Doubtful
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Squad reports of 14 September. Mitchell Weiser returned for Werder at Köln after 14 months out; Chrislain Matsima is back in the Augsburg defence after injury.
06Expected XI
Thioune's 4-2-3-1 leaves Füllkrug alone in front of Chuki; Baum's 3-5-2 pairs Gregoritsch with Ibrahimović behind wing-backs Behrens and Wolf.
Werder BremenHome
Daniel Thioune
FC AugsburgAway
Manuel Baum
Projected XIs of 14 September, ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right.
07Shape and plan
Füllkrug against a back three
Matsima, Banks and Brackelmann can double up on a lone striker, which is exactly what Baum's 3-5-2 is built to do. Füllkrug's value to Werder is that he does not need volume: they created 0.74 xG a game in the league and still scored five in three. Who wins first contact on the ball into him decides how high Werder can play.
Wing-backs against a flat four
Augsburg won 5.7 corners a game and conceded 8.7 across three league matches. They attack the flanks and they leave them open. Deman and Arthur will be defending Wolf and Behrens and overlapping in the same minute, and Werder's 4.0 corners a game says they have not been winning that trade.
The half that decides it
Our second-half index reads 82% for Augsburg against 53% for Werder, and Augsburg's post-break goals momentum is 2.26 a match to Werder's 2.01. Werder have been behind at half-time in two of three league matches and still taken four points from them.
The midfield Stage used to run
Stage scored 10 league goals from midfield last season and has not played a minute of this one. Regeer and Reis are a control pair, not a scoring one, which is why so much of Werder's threat now runs through Füllkrug and Grüll and so little through the centre.
08Three duels
Niclas Füllkrug
Werder Bremen · FW
Back for a third spell and the focal point of an attack creating 0.74 xG a game. Werder need him to finish what little arrives.
5 goals in 3 Bundesliga matches as a team
Marco Grüll
Werder Bremen · FW
Werder's width on the left and the man attacking the grass Wolf vacates when Augsburg push their right wing-back.
Karl Hein
Werder Bremen · GK
Saved a penalty at Köln. With 2.00 goals conceded a game behind him, he is the difference between 2-1 and 2-3.
Michael Gregoritsch
FC Augsburg · FW
The target man Baum's direct game is built around, and the reference point for every ball into Friedl and Pieper.
Fabian Rieder
FC Augsburg · MF
Augsburg's most-used midfielder and the player who turns 21.0 shots conceded a game into transitions the other way.
Chrislain Matsima
FC Augsburg · DF
Back from injury in the middle of the back three. He takes Füllkrug, and Augsburg's clean sheet against Schalke was built that way.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 40%chanceMost likely
Werder take it on the counter
Thioune's side sit off, Augsburg take the ball and the corners, and Füllkrug settles one of the three clear chances Werder make. They scored three at home against Leipzig from 0.95 xG doing exactly this. It finishes 2-1, both teams on the scoresheet, and Bremen have seven points from four.
- 34%chance
Augsburg's front two decide it
The straightest line through the numbers: 3.00 goals a game, two away wins by an aggregate 6-1, and a Werder defence conceding 2.00 a game in the league with no clean sheet. Gregoritsch and Ibrahimović get in behind Friedl and Pieper inside the first half hour and it ends 1-3 or 2-3.
- 26%chance
Neither defence blinks first
Both sides have been level or behind at the break more often than ahead. Augsburg were held 2-2 at home by Leverkusen having faced 30 shots; Werder drew 1-1 at Köln with Hein saving a penalty. A 1-1 or 2-2, and the draw at 3.75 is the result nobody wrote down.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Werder have conceded in all three Bundesliga matches and Augsburg have scored in all three. The winner is a coin the market has barely tipped. The goals are the part of this match nobody is arguing about.
10The verdict
Werder edge a loud afternoon at the Weserstadion
Neither club is in crisis and neither coach is under any threat, so this comes down to a quality gap Augsburg own and a venue Werder own. We make it Werder 40%, the draw 26%, Augsburg 34%, within a point or two of the market's 40, 25 and 34, so there is no gap here that needs explaining. Augsburg are the better team on every measure we hold: 84% to 45% on long-term quality, 80 Elo points clear, third in the table with seven points from three and nine goals scored. Home advantage at this ground is worth roughly that 80 points, and Werder have scored in all four of their competitive matches this season, with Füllkrug leading the line. Jens Stage's absence until 2027 has cost them chance creation rather than points: 0.74 xG a game in the league is the weakest number on this page, and it is why the confidence stops at 3. The calls sit on goals, not on the winner.
What would change our mind
- If Senne Lynen and Moussa N'Diaye are both ruled out, Werder's midfield loses its cover and the over 2.5 goals call strengthens.
- If Anton Kade is passed fit and starts, Augsburg's right side gets sharper and the two result leans weaken before the goals ones do.
- If the breeze pushes well past the forecast 21 km/h, treat the over 2.5 goals call with more caution.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Werder Bremen, narrowly. The market prices the home win at 2.33, the draw at 3.75 and Augsburg at 2.74. Augsburg are the stronger side on the numbers, third in the table with seven points from three matches and 80 Elo points ahead, but home advantage at the Weserstadion is worth roughly that gap. We make it Werder 40%, draw 26%, Augsburg 34%.
- What is the predicted score for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Werder Bremen 2-1 FC Augsburg. Werder have scored and conceded in all three Bundesliga matches this season, 1.67 for and 2.00 against per game. Augsburg have scored 3.00 a game and conceded 1.00. Both teams to score is the call we are surest of, at 1.44.
- Who is out for Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
- Werder are without Jens Stage, whose thigh injury has kept him out since before the opening match and who is not due back until 2027, plus Keke Topp and Justin Njinmah. Moussa N'Diaye, Senne Lynen and Felix Agu are doubtful. Augsburg list Anton Kade, Steve Mounié and Tim Breithaupt as doubts. Mitchell Weiser returned for Werder at Köln after 14 months out.
- What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
- Augsburg have won four of the last eight competitive meetings, Werder two, with two draws and 2.38 goals a meeting. Augsburg won the most recent 3-1 at the Weserstadion in May 2026, and the meeting before that finished 0-0 in Augsburg.
- Are goals likely in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Yes. All six Bundesliga matches these two have played this season produced at least two goals, and five of the six had both teams scoring. The Bundesliga is averaging 3.85 goals a match across 27 games this season, with 81% going over 2.5.
Written 14 Sept 2026, 19:35 · Updated 14 Sept 2026, 19:35 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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