Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna

Any Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction has to start with Getafe's scoring problem. They are 15th with four points from four played (W1 D1 L2): two goals in four La Liga matches, 0.50 a game, 0.71 xG a game. On Monday night they drew 1-1 with Celta Vigo, Martin Satriano scoring on 21 minutes, Zaid Romero sent off on 67, and ten men holding the point. That is the season in miniature - compact, awkward, short of finishers.

Deportivo are the story of the opening month. Promoted last summer, they sit fifth on eight points from four played (W2 D2 L0), unbeaten, and they won 3-2 at Villarreal on 5 September with Luismi Cruz, Zakaria Eddahchouri and an 88th-minute Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang finish. Eight goals scored in four league matches, 2.00 a game; five conceded, and both teams have scored in all four.

The Coliseum is where those two profiles collide. Getafe have taken four points from two home league matches and conceded a single goal there; Deportivo have won one and drawn one on the road, scoring four and conceding three. The market reads it as a low-scoring home night, and the fair three-way numbers say so: Getafe 42%, the draw 33%, Deportivo 25%.

Getafe have scored two goals in four La Liga matches - 0.50 a game against a league average of 3.00 goals per match - and created 0.71 xG a game. They failed to score in two of the four. Only the 1-0 home win over Racing Santander turned a decent shape into three points.

Deportivo are the mirror image. Eight goals in four league matches, 2.00 a game, both teams scoring in all four. The underlying numbers are thinner than the results: 0.92 xG created a game against 1.43 conceded, 8.2 shots a game against 13.2 faced. They have been clinical rather than dominant, and they were outshot 17-8 while winning at Villarreal.

That is the tension. Deportivo's four league matches have averaged 3.25 goals, Getafe's 1.75. The market lands firmly on the low side - under 2.5 goals is a fair 69% - and Getafe's two home league matches have produced three goals between them.

Getafe's four La Liga matches have produced 6.5 cards each, over 3.5 in all four. They take 3.0 a game and draw 3.5 from the opposition - the profile of a side that fouls to break rhythm, and Jose Bordalas has never coached any other way. Romero's dismissal against Celta Vigo was one of three Getafe cards in that match.

Deportivo's four have averaged 4.2 cards a match, also over 3.5 every time, but skewed their way: 2.8 shown to them, 1.5 to opponents. Put the two samples side by side and the midpoint is 5.4, above the league's 4.80 per match.

No referee has been appointed yet, so this is a read on the two teams rather than on the whistle.

Neither side wins many corners. Getafe have taken 4.2 a game in the league and conceded 4.2; Deportivo 3.0 for and 6.2 against, the price of 38 to 45% possession and a lot of defending in their own third.

Their matches have averaged 8.5 and 9.2 corners respectively, both under the league's 9.95 per match. Over 9.5 has landed in one of Getafe's four league games and two of Deportivo's four.