vs
Fiorentina vs Napoli
Sun 20 Sept · 12:30Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
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FiorentinaHomeNapoliAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Napoli. The Elo gap is 103 points and Fiorentina have conceded 2.75 goals a game in four Serie A matches.
- The one stat
- All four of Fiorentina's Serie A matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals, and they have kept no clean sheet in four.
- The risk
- Vanoli's bounce. His first match back brought a 4-2 win at Venezia, and new coaches usually get two or three of those.
- The calls
- Safer: Napoli or draw at 1.34. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 1.94. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction starts with the sacking. Fabio Grosso was dismissed on 8 September after three straight defeats and the worst Serie A start in the club's history: no points from three, one goal scored, nine conceded. The Curva Fiesole had already turned on him after the home loss to Torino on 5 September. Paolo Vanoli was back in the job within a day, a second stint after he replaced Stefano Pioli last November and steered the club to 15th. His first match, at Venezia on 11 September, ended 4-2 with a Franco Mastantuono hat-trick. That is one result, and it is the only win in Fiorentina's four Serie A matches: 3 points from 4 played (W1 D0 L3), goal difference minus six, 15th in the table.
Napoli are not in crisis, but they are not the Napoli of last spring either. Massimiliano Allegri took the job on 3 July, weeks after Milan let him go and days after Antonio Conte left by mutual consent. Three competitive defeats in a row followed - Como at home, Inter away, Arsenal in the Champions League - before Stanislav Lobotka's goal beat Bologna 1-0 on 13 September and took the heat off. Six points from four played (W2 D0 L2), 10th, and a Serie A record of 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game across four matches with two clean sheets. Allegri's own words on 12 September: the hardest fixtures are Bologna and then Florence, and the squad still needs time.
The week itself is lopsided. Fiorentina host Pisa in the Coppa Italia on Tuesday, and Vanoli is expected to change the bulk of the side - Christensen, João Mário, Pongračić, Valdepeñas, Oulaï, Brescianini and Gonçalves are all in line to start - which should leave the league XI fresh. Napoli have a clear week after Bologna, but their treatment room does not clear with it: Scott McTominay is not expected back until October, Alessandro Buongiorno has not played this season, and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa is a doubt after a relapse.
The markets
Double chance
Napoli or draw
Napoli are 103 Elo points clear and rate 73% for current strength against 54%; Fiorentina have won one of four Serie A matches and none of two at home, where they have conceded five.
Total goals
Over 2.5
All four of Fiorentina's Serie A matches cleared 2.5 and they concede 2.75 a game with no clean sheet; seven of the last eight meetings went over. We make it about 57% against the market's 49%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
NapoliPrice 2.20
3/5Our 45% against the market's 43%: Napoli have the better goals-against record (1.25 v 2.75 per Serie A game) and six wins in the last eight meetings, and Fiorentina's new-coach bounce is one match old.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-headTeam news
Asian handicap
Napoli 0Price 1.61
3/5The same 45% call with the draw refunded, which matters when Napoli have been level at half-time in three of four Serie A matches and start slowly under Allegri.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIs
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.29
4/5Fiorentina have failed to score twice in four Serie A matches but have never kept a clean sheet, and their four league games have produced 16 goals between them; the market has this at 73%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.71
3/5Fiorentina have scored in three of four Serie A matches and take 16.8 shots per game; Napoli have failed to score in none of their four league matches, and have kept a clean sheet in only one away trip.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 12:30 Florence time
- Sunday
- Ground
- Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
- Coaches
- Vanoli vs Allegri
- Vanoli appointed 9 September, Allegri 3 July
- Rest
- 4 days vs 6
- Fiorentina host Pisa in the Coppa Italia on Tuesday
- Table
- 15th vs 10th
- 3 points from 4 played vs 6 from 4
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals keep coming at the Franchi, what Napoli's defence is actually worth, and where the cards and corners sit.
01Goals
Fiorentina do not play quiet matches. Four Serie A outings this season, four of them over 2.5 goals, no clean sheet, 2.75 conceded per game. The underlying numbers say the defence is worse than the attack: 1.86 xG created per game against 1.31 allowed, yet the actual ledger is 1.25 scored and 2.75 conceded. Some of that is finishing, most of it is a back line that has shipped five goals in two home matches - 0-3 to Frosinone, 1-2 to Torino - while scoring one.
Napoli are the tidier side and the lower-scoring one. Across four Serie A matches they have scored 1.50 and conceded 1.25 per game with two clean sheets, and their xG line is almost level at 1.60 for, 1.46 against. Away from home the sample is only two competitive matches, so treat it lightly: 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded, one clean sheet. The shot counts are the warning - 14.2 taken and 16.5 faced per Serie A match - and they have been ahead at half-time in none of their four league matches, level in three.
Put a leaky home side against a visiting team that starts slowly and the shape of the match writes itself: a live first hour, Napoli's extra quality telling late. Both teams have scored in two of four Serie A matches each, and seven of the last eight competitive meetings between them went over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.12 per meeting.
Fiorentina have conceded 2.75 goals a game in Serie A this season and kept no clean sheet in four; Napoli have kept two.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each; splits are venue form, last 3 and last 2 competitive matches
| Metric | FiorentinaHome | NapoliAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.251.67 at home | 1.52.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.752.0 at home | 1.251.5 away |
| xG created per game | 1.86 | 1.6 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Fiorentina out-created three of their four Serie A opponents and lost to two of them; Napoli have only once cleared 2.00 xG.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each, oldest first
FiorentinaHome
avg xG 1.87 · avg xGA 1.31
4–0L
AS Roma (A)
0–3L
Frosinone (H)
1–2L
Torino (H)
2–4W
Venezia (A)
NapoliAway
avg xG 1.60 · avg xGA 1.46
0–2W
Genoa (A)
1–2L
Como (H)
3–2L
Inter (A)
1–0W
Bologna (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Napoli have won six of the last eight competitive meetings, Fiorentina one, and seven of the eight went over 2.5 goals at 3.12 per meeting.
1
Fiorentina
1
Draws
6
Napoli
31 Jan 2026·Serie A
Napoli2–1Fiorentina13 Sept 2025·Serie A
Fiorentina1–3Napoli9 Mar 2025·Serie A
Napoli2–1Fiorentina4 Jan 2025·Serie A
Fiorentina0–3Napoli17 May 2024·Serie A
Fiorentina2–2Napoli18 Jan 2024·Super Cup
Napoli3–0Fiorentina8 Oct 2023·Serie A
Napoli1–3Fiorentina7 May 2023·Serie A
Napoli1–0Fiorentina
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Napoli or drawSafer
Price 1.344/5Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 1.943/5Match result
Napoli
Price 2.203/5Asian handicap
Napoli 0
Price 1.613/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.294/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.713/5
02Cards
No referee has been appointed yet, so this is a read of the two squads rather than of the man in the middle. Fiorentina are the busier side for the card-writer: 1.5 shown to them and 1.8 to their opponents per Serie A match, 3.2 in the game, over 3.5 in two of four. Napoli's four Serie A matches have produced 1.0 each way, 2.0 per match, and not one has cleared 3.5.
Combined, that points slightly under the league's 3.12 cards per match. There is no price line for a cards market on this fixture, so this chapter stays analysis - nothing on the board leans on it.
Napoli's four Serie A matches have averaged 2.0 cards and none cleared 3.5; Fiorentina's average 3.2 with two over.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each
| Metric | FiorentinaHome | NapoliAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cards against opponents | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Total cards per match | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 50% | 0% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Napoli are the corner team. Their four Serie A matches have averaged 11.0 in total, 5.5 won and 5.5 conceded, and three of the four cleared 9.5 - including ten won to nil against Bologna. Fiorentina's Serie A matches have averaged 8.0, with 4.5 won and 3.5 conceded, and only one of four went over 9.5.
The league average is 9.45. Two sides pulling in opposite directions is exactly the coin flip this chapter exists to flag, which is why there is no corners line anywhere on the board.
Napoli's Serie A matches average 11.0 corners and three of four cleared 9.5; Fiorentina's average 8.0 with one of four over.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each
| Metric | FiorentinaHome | NapoliAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Corners conceded per game | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 11.0 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 2.75
- goals Fiorentina concede per Serie A match
- Four matches, no clean sheet, five conceded in two games at the Franchi. It is the single reason the goals lines read the way they do.
- 4/4
- Fiorentina Serie A matches over 2.5 goals
- Every league match they have played this season cleared the line, against a league average of 57%.
- 103
- Elo points in Napoli's favour
- 1763 against 1660. Home advantage is worth roughly 60-80 points, so the gap survives the venue.
- 1
- Fiorentina wins in the last 8 meetings
- Napoli have taken six of the eight competitive meetings, with one draw.
The quality indices tell the same story as the Elo: on Serie A matches only, Napoli rate 73% for current strength and 86% for long-term quality, Fiorentina 54% and 64%. The public rates neither highly - 53% against 41% - which is why the prices are closer than the gap in level.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Napoli's absences are the real team-news story; Fiorentina are close to a full squad and should be fresh.
05Team news
Napoli have scored once in the two matches since McTominay's operation; Fiorentina are missing only their injured left-back.
FiorentinaHome
Fabiano ParisiLB
cruciate ligament, not due back before December
Goals
Out
NapoliAway
Scott McTominayCM
heart procedure, targeting October
GoalsResult
OutAndré-Frank Zambo AnguissaCM
muscle injury, relapse before Bologna
Result
DoubtfulAlessandro BuongiornoCB
injured since pre-season
Goals
OutAlex MeretGK
injured in the Champions League tie
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and Italian national press reports from the days before kick-off. Anguissa is described as a cautious doubt; Fiorentina reported no suspensions.
06Expected XI
Vanoli keeps the Venezia XI; Allegri fields the Bologna eleven, with Milinković-Savić in goal for the injured Meret.
FiorentinaHome
Paolo Vanoli
NapoliAway
Massimiliano Allegri
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Ranieri and Pongračić, Viery and Valdepeñas, Beto and Pellegrino are the open calls for Vanoli.
07Shape and plan
The half Napoli waste
Napoli have led at half-time in none of their four Serie A matches and were level in three. Allegri's side start slowly and win late: their second-half quality index is 75% against 70% for the first. Fiorentina have been ahead at the break once in four and behind twice, so an even opening hour would surprise nobody - and would suit the visitors.
Mastantuono against Spinazzola
The loan signing from Real Madrid scored three at Venezia from the right and is the one Fiorentina player currently capable of beating a man. Spinazzola has started every Serie A match at left-back; if Vanoli isolates that side, Fiorentina's 16.8 shots per Serie A match get better addresses.
De Bruyne without McTominay
With McTominay out and Anguissa a doubt, Napoli's midfield is De Bruyne and Gilmour either side of Lobotka - creative, light on running. Fiorentina's front four have the legs to press it, and Napoli have scored once in the two matches played without McTominay.
Set pieces and second balls
Napoli won ten corners to nil against Bologna and average 5.5 per Serie A match with Rrahmani and Marin arriving. Fiorentina concede only 3.5 corners a game, but they have shipped five goals in two home matches; the first ball is rarely their problem, the second one is.
08Three duels
Franco Mastantuono
Fiorentina · RW
Scored all three of Fiorentina's opening goals at Venezia in Vanoli's first match; the only player in this side carrying form.
3 goals at Venezia
Nicolò Fagioli
Fiorentina · DM
Alone in front of a back four that has conceded five in two home matches. If De Bruyne finds the space between him and the centre-backs, it is over early.
Sole pivot in the 4-1-4-1
Kevin De Bruyne
Napoli · CM
Napoli's only creator with McTominay out and Anguissa doubtful; everything Allegri builds runs through his right-side pocket.
Started the 1-0 win over Bologna
Rasmus Højlund
Napoli · ST
Leads a line that has produced 1.50 goals per Serie A match against a defence conceding 2.75; the matchup is as one-sided as this board gets.
Napoli 1.50 goals per Serie A game
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 45%chanceMost likely
Napoli's class tells late
A level opening hour - Napoli have led at the break in none of four Serie A matches - then De Bruyne finds Højlund or a corner drops right. Fiorentina get one back, as they did against Torino, but 2.75 conceded per game is not a number you fix in ten days. 1-2 or 1-3.
- 28%chance
The bounce carries on
Vanoli's second match is as loud as his first. Mastantuono keeps beating Spinazzola, the Franchi lifts, and a Napoli midfield without McTominay and Anguissa cannot slow it. Fiorentina created 3.31 xG at Venezia and 2.13 against Frosinone; the shots are there.
- 27%chance
Allegri's draw
Napoli close the game down after taking the lead, Fiorentina equalise late through sheer volume - 16.8 shots per Serie A match - and nobody finds a third. The one draw in the last eight meetings came this way, 2-2 in Florence.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Fiorentina changed the coach, not the defence. Five conceded in two home matches, 2.75 a game in Serie A - and Napoli arrive with two clean sheets in four league matches to Fiorentina's none.
10The verdict
Napoli by one, in a match that will not stay quiet
Fiorentina are the club in crisis - Grosso sacked on 8 September after the worst Serie A start in the club's history, the Fiesole in open revolt, one goal scored and five conceded in two home matches - and even a Napoli missing McTominay until October, Buongiorno all season and probably Anguissa is the better side here. We make it Fiorentina 28%, the draw 27%, Napoli 45%, against the market's 29-28-43: agreement, not disagreement, so there is nothing here to force. The coach change is worth a little to Fiorentina and no more - the research on new appointments finds a two-or-three-match bounce and then the underlying level, and the underlying level is 54% current strength against Napoli's 73%, an Elo gap of 103. The with/without test is the one thing that keeps the price honest: Napoli have scored once in the two matches since McTominay's operation, which is why Napoli at 2.20 is a lean rather than the safer call, and why the double chance at 1.34 carries the confidence instead. Goals are the cleaner read - four from four over 2.5 for Fiorentina, seven of the last eight meetings over - so the riskier call sits there.
What would change our mind
- If Anguissa is passed fit, Napoli's midfield holds up better and the 1.61 line on the win gains; the safer call is unchanged.
- If Vanoli starts Pellegrino and Beto together, expect more goals and a firmer over 2.5.
- If Napoli lose another centre-back before kick-off, drop the riskier call to over 1.5 and leave the result alone.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Napoli. The market prices them at 2.20 for the win against Fiorentina's 3.22 and the draw at 3.38, and the Elo ratings put Napoli 103 points clear at 1763 to 1660. We make it Napoli 45%, the draw 27% and Fiorentina 28%.
- What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Fiorentina 1-2 Napoli. Fiorentina have conceded 2.75 goals per Serie A match this season with no clean sheet in four, but they have scored in both home games, and all four of their league matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
- Who is missing for Fiorentina and Napoli?
- Napoli are without Scott McTominay, who is not expected back until October after a heart procedure, and Alessandro Buongiorno, out since pre-season; André-Frank Zambo Anguissa is a doubt after a relapse, and Alex Meret is injured. Fiorentina are missing only Fabiano Parisi, out with a cruciate ligament injury.
- What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?
- In the last eight competitive meetings Napoli have won six, Fiorentina one and one was drawn. Those eight matches averaged 3.12 goals, both teams scored in five of them and seven went over 2.5 goals.
- Who are the coaches for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Paolo Vanoli returned to Fiorentina on 9 September, a day after Fabio Grosso was sacked, and won 4-2 at Venezia in his first match back. Massimiliano Allegri took charge of Napoli on 3 July and has six points from four Serie A matches.
Written 15 Sept 2026, 13:01 · Updated 15 Sept 2026, 13:01 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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