Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

One point separates them, and the Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution prediction turns on where each side is asked to play. New England are third on 40 points from 24 matches, Chicago fourth on 39 from 23. Gregg Berhalter, in charge since October 2024, has his side unbeaten in seven Major League Soccer matches and stuck all the same: four straight draws, the last 1-1 with Inter Miami in front of a club-record home crowd. Neither club is in crisis. Neither can close a game out.

Berhalter names the problem himself. "We've got to be better at defending, we've got to be more compact," he said after the 4-4 at Toronto. Chicago have one clean sheet in 11 league matches and have conceded in each of the last five. Mbekezeli Mbokazi, who started all twelve of his league appearances at centre-back, tore a thigh muscle and is out for the season. Robert Lewandowski has papered over it: six goals in nine games, scoring in each of the last three.

Marko Mitrović, appointed in November 2025, has built a team with two faces. At home New England are 8-2-2; on the road they are 4-2-6 and worth 1.17 points a game. They won 2-1 at New York City on Wednesday with Jack Harrison and Dániel Gazdag bedded in, and their travelling expected-goals numbers are far better than their travelling results — 2.33 created and 1.05 allowed across their last seven away trips. That gap is the argument for the away side, and it is the only one.

Chicago score at home and concede at home. Eleven league matches at Soldier Field have produced 21 goals for and 12 against, 1.91 and 1.09 a game, and both teams have scored in ten of Chicago's last eleven league matches. That is the shape to price: the Fire on top, the visitors on the board.

New England arrive with the better process and the worse product. They have created 1.74 expected goals a game across 15 league matches and scored 1.47; away from home over their last seven trips the creation number climbs to 2.33. But they have shipped 19 goals in 12 away league matches and lost six of them. Chicago's 1.53 xG a game has produced 1.91 goals — the finishing edge is theirs, and with Lewandowski scoring in three straight it is not an accident.

Three goals is the landing spot. The eight competitive meetings between these clubs have averaged 3.50 goals, both sides scored in seven of them, and the league itself runs at 3.20 a match. Over 2.5 and both teams to score are the goals leans; over 3.5 is a step past what either defence has actually given up this month.

Rubiel Vazquez is a light touch by this league's standard: 3.41 yellows a game across 240 matches, against a Major League Soccer average of 4.12 this season. That matters more than the teams do here.

Chicago's 11 league matches have averaged 4.1 cards, with 2.2 of them their own, and passed 3.5 in seven of eleven. New England are the calmest side in this fixture: 3.4 cards a match across 15 league games, over 3.5 in only five, and the fewest fouls per game of the two. Add Vazquez's tolerance and the total sits near 3.9, which is under the 4.5 line rather than over it.

The corner counts point the other way from the result. Chicago win 3.4 a game in the league and concede 5.5; their matches average 8.8 and have passed 9.5 only four times in eleven. New England win 5.7 and concede 5.6, and their games run at 11.3 with nine of fifteen over 9.5.

That is a real split, and it is why this chapter carries no lean. A Chicago side that sits deeper than its table position suggests, meeting a Revolution side that shoots from wide areas often, produces a number somewhere between 8.8 and 11.3 that nobody should pretend to pin down. Read it as texture: New England will have territory in spells and not much to show for it.