Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Alaves?

Athletic Club, priced at 1.68 against 4.96 for Alaves and 3.69 for the draw. Our own reading is a little closer: Athletic 50%, the draw 28%, Alaves 22%. Athletic are unbeaten in three La Liga matches and Alaves have taken one point from their two away trips this season.

What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Alaves?

Athletic Club 2-1 Alaves, at confidence 3. Athletic have created 1.33 xG per game across three home matches while conceding just 0.71, and Alaves concede 1.50 per game away. Alaves have scored in all five of their La Liga matches, which is why we expect them to get on the board.

Is Iñaki Williams playing for Athletic Club?

He is a doubt. Iñaki Williams was substituted with a foot knock against Elche on 12 September and is rated day to day. Gorka Guruzeta, the other recognised centre-forward, is also working his way back from a hamstring problem, so Athletic may have to improvise up front.

What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?

Across the last eight competitive meetings Athletic Club have won five, Alaves one and two were drawn. The fixture averages 2.00 goals a meeting, both sides scored in only two of the eight, and only one cleared 2.5 goals. Alaves' one win was 1-0 in Bilbao in September 2025.

What are the calls for Athletic Club vs Alaves?

The safer call is over 1.5 goals at 1.31, confidence 4: nine of the ten La Liga matches these sides have played this season produced at least two goals. The riskier call is over 2.5 goals at 2.00, confidence 3, which the predicted 2-1 clears. Four further leans sit on the board.

Athletic Club vs Alaves preview: a football on the grass at dusk under stadium floodlights

FootballLa Liga — Round 7

Athletic Club vs Alaves

Sat 19 Sept · 16:15San Mamés, Bilbao

AI deep previewGenerated 14 Sept 2026match#la-liga#san-mames#basque-derby

Athletic ClubHome

AlavesAway

Home side first and left in every table.

In short

The call: Athletic Club to win 2-1. Unbeaten in three La Liga matches, and Alaves have taken one point from their two away trips this season.
The one stat: Alaves score 2.20 goals per game across five La Liga matches, but 1.00 per game in the two played away, where they conceded three.
The risk: Alaves rate 74% on long-term quality against 53% for Athletic, and have scored in all five league matches. Nothing here is a lockout.
The calls: Safer: over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 2.00. Four more leans on the board.

The situation

This Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction starts with a Bilbao side that has stopped bleeding. Edin Terzić was appointed on 5 May 2026 on a deal to June 2028, and his first fortnight was ugly: a 1-3 home defeat by Sevilla, a 0-2 defeat at Barcelona, and a squad-versus-board row after president Jon Uriarte scrapped complimentary tickets for players' families, which ended in a media boycott. Then the football arrived. Athletic won 2-0 at Celta Vigo, beat Atletico Madrid 3-0 at San Mamés and drew 1-1 with Elche, and now sit ninth on 7 points from 5 played (W2 D1 L2). Unbeaten in three is not a crisis; it is a team that has learned the new shape.

Alaves arrive third on 10 points from 5 played (W3 D1 L1) under Quique Sánchez Flores, appointed on 3 March 2026 after Chacho Coudet left for River Plate. His mandate was defensive organisation and it shows: 5 conceded in five league matches, 1.00 per game, with a 0.93 xG conceded per game. But the record splits hard by venue. All three wins came in Vitoria - 3-0 Getafe, 1-0 Villarreal, 5-2 Osasuna. On the road they drew 1-1 at Rayo Vallecano and lost 1-2 at Racing Santander last time out, scoring 1.00 per game and conceding 1.50.

The quality numbers disagree with the table and with the market. Alaves carry the higher Elo, 1732 to 1701, and much the higher long-term quality rating, 74% against 53%. Home advantage in this league is worth more than a 31-point Elo gap, and the market has Athletic at 1.68 against 4.96. Our reading sits closer to the market than to the ratings, because Alaves have not yet shown the away version of the side those ratings describe.

The markets

Safer call

Total goals

Over 1.5

1.31Confidence 4/5

Athletic cleared 1.5 goals in all five La Liga matches and Alaves in four of five, nine of ten in all; we make it 76% against the market's 72%.

EvidenceGoals table xG trend Head-to-head

Riskier call

Total goals

Over 2.5

2.00Confidence 3/5

The 2-1 we predict clears it, both sides have scored in every league match bar one, and we make over 2.5 a 52% shot against the market's 48%.

EvidenceGoals table xG trend

Result & goals

Match result
Athletic ClubPrice 1.68
3/5
We give Athletic 50% against the market's 56%: unbeaten in three, 1.33 xG against 0.71 in three home matches, facing a side with 1.00 goals per game away.
EvidenceGoals table xG trend Head-to-head
Double chance
Athletic Club or drawPrice 1.17
4/5
Athletic plus the draw is 78% on our numbers, and Alaves have not won away this season - one point from two trips, 2 scored and 3 conceded.
EvidenceGoals table Head-to-head
Asian handicap
Athletic Club 0Price 1.25
3/5
The win with the draw void: 50% against 22% on our numbers, which is a 69% call, and Alaves have won one of the last eight meetings.
EvidenceGoals table Head-to-head Probable XIs
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.88
3/5
Alaves have scored in all five La Liga matches and Athletic have conceded in three of five, with an xG against of 1.52 per game; we make it 57% against the market's 50%.
EvidenceGoals table xG trend Team news

Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.

Match sheet

Kick-off: 16:15 Bilbao time; Saturday
Venue: San Mamés, Bilbao
Weather: 22 °C, dry; sunny, no rain in the forecast
Rest: 6 days vs 7; neither side played midweek
Table: 9th vs 3rd; 7 points vs 10, both from 5 played
Referee: Not appointed; no designation published yet

Part one

Analysis

Where the goals come from, what the cards and corners lines say, and the three numbers that decide the call.

01Goals

Both sides score. In La Liga this season Athletic have failed to score once in five matches and Alaves not at all in five. That is the floor under this match: nine of their ten league matches between them have produced at least two goals, and the one that did not was Alaves' 1-0 win over Villarreal.

The ceiling is lower. Athletic have scored 7 in five league matches, 1.40 per game, against an xG of 1.42 - no luck either way, just a side that creates a chance and a half a game. Alaves' 2.20 per game is inflated by one afternoon: the 5-2 against Osasuna, from an xG of 1.20. Strip that and they are a 1.50-a-game team who scored exactly once in three of the other four. Away from Vitoria the figure is 1.00 per game from two matches.

Athletic's home evidence is the strongest thing on this page. Three home matches this season, 5 scored and 4 conceded, but an xG of 1.33 for and 0.71 against - they have dominated the shot count at San Mamés, 19-3 against Elche and 18-7 against Sevilla, and been punished by finishing rather than by chances. Against a side that concedes 1.50 per game on the road, that points one way.

Alaves score 2.20 per game in La Liga overall but 1.00 away, and concede 1.50 away against 1.00 overall.

Sample: La Liga 2026/27, 5 matches each; splits are Athletic's 3 home and Alaves' 2 away

Metric	Athletic ClubHome	AlavesAway
Goals scored per game	1.41.67 at home	2.21.0 away
Goals conceded per game	1.21.33 at home	1.01.5 away
xG created per game	1.42	1.46
xG conceded per game	1.52	0.93
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	40%

Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.

Athletic have out-created their opponent in three of four matches with xG this season; Alaves won 1-0 at 0.81 against 1.40.

Sample: La Liga 2026/27, the 4 matches each with xG published

Athletic ClubHome

avg xG 1.42 · avg xGA 1.52

1.30.4

1–3L

Sevilla (H)

0.23.9

2–0L

Barcelona (A)

2.80.8

0–2W

Celta Vigo (A)

1.41.0

3–0W

Atletico Madrid (H)

AlavesAway

avg xG 1.47 · avg xGA 0.93

1.90.2

3–0W

Getafe (H)

1.90.4

1–1D

Rayo Vallecano (A)

0.81.4

1–0W

Villarreal (H)

1.21.6

5–2W

Osasuna (H)

xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.

Athletic have won five of the eight competitive meetings, Alaves one. They average 2.00 goals a meeting and both sides scored in only two of eight.

Athletic Club

Draws

Alaves

2 May 2026·La Liga
Alaves2–4Athletic Club
13 Sept 2025·La Liga
Athletic Club0–1Alaves
11 May 2025·La Liga
Athletic Club1–0Alaves
15 Dec 2024·La Liga
Alaves1–1Athletic Club
16 Mar 2024·La Liga
Athletic Club2–0Alaves
16 Jan 2024·Copa del Rey
Athletic Club2–0Alaves
22 Sept 2023·La Liga
Alaves0–2Athletic Club
9 Jan 2022·La Liga
Alaves0–0Athletic Club

Home side listed first. Winner in bold.

What this supports

Full board ↑

Total goals
Over 1.5Safer
Price 1.314/5
Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 2.003/5
Match result
Athletic Club
Price 1.683/5
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw
Price 1.174/5
Asian handicap
Athletic Club 0
Price 1.253/5
Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.883/5

02Cards

This is a Basque fixture with an edge, but neither side is a card machine. Across five La Liga matches each, Athletic average 2.2 cards themselves and 2.0 against, a match total of 4.2; Alaves 2.6 and 2.2, a total of 4.8. The league runs at 4.62 a match, so the pair sit either side of the average.

The split in the samples is small and the referee has not been appointed, which removes the one input that moves a cards line most. The desk reads the total as around the league average and leaves it alone - there is no card call on this board.

Alaves matches average 4.8 cards to Athletic's 4.2; the league runs at 4.62 per match.

Sample: La Liga 2026/27, 5 matches each

Metric	Athletic ClubHome	AlavesAway
Cards shown per game	2.2	2.6
Cards against per game	2.0	2.2
Match card total per game	4.2	4.8
Matches over 3.5 cards	40%	60%

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

03Corners

Athletic are the corner side. Their five La Liga matches average 11.8 corners, with 6.2 won and 5.6 conceded, and four of the five cleared 9.5 - a product of the possession they hold at home, 66% against Elche and 65% against Sevilla, and of crossing into a packed box.

Alaves sit at 10.6 a match, 5.4 for and 5.2 against, over 9.5 in three of five. Both are above the league's 9.90, and a Sánchez Flores away side that defends deep normally pushes the count up further. It is a clean read, and it stays in this chapter: corners are analysis here, not a call.

Athletic's league matches average 11.8 corners and cleared 9.5 in four of five; the league average is 9.90.

Sample: La Liga 2026/27, 5 matches each

Metric	Athletic ClubHome	AlavesAway
Corners for per game	6.2	5.4
Corners against per game	5.6	5.2
Match corner total per game	11.8	10.6
Matches over 9.5 corners	80%	60%

Bold marks the better figure in each row.

04The numbers that matter

1.00
Alaves goals per game away this season: Their 2.20 league rate halves on the road across two matches, and they conceded 1.50 in the same pair.; 9 of 10
league matches with two or more goals: Athletic cleared 1.5 goals in all five of their league matches, Alaves in four of five. It is the safer call.; 5 of 8
meetings won by Athletic Club: Alaves have won one of the eight competitive meetings, the 0-1 in Bilbao a year ago, and the pair average 2.00 goals.

Two of the three numbers above come from five-match league samples, which is what this stage of a season offers. The direction of all three agrees, which matters more than any single one of them.

Part two

Who plays, and how

Athletic may be without a recognised centre-forward; Alaves are missing two centre-backs to cruciate injuries.

05Team news

Athletic could lose Iñaki Williams and Gorka Guruzeta at once, which strips the only two natural centre-forwards from the squad.

Athletic ClubHome

Iñaki WilliamsST
foot knock, substituted against Elche on 12 September
Goals
Doubtful
Gorka GuruzetaST
hamstring, back in gym and pitch work
Goals
Doubtful
Dani VivianCB
muscle problem, 10 to 14 days from 11 September
GoalsResult
Out
Peio CanalesCM
muscle problem, due back in group training
Result
Doubtful

AlavesAway

Facundo GarcésCB
cruciate ligament rupture
GoalsResult
Out
Aitor MañasMF
concussion suffered at Racing Santander on 12 September
Result
Doubtful
Mikel RodríguezCB
cruciate ligament rupture
Result
Out

Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and regional-press reports published between 11 and 14 September, including Terzić's pre-match press conference on 11 September.

06Expected XI

Terzić has named the same eleven twice running; the only open slot is the centre-forward if Iñaki Williams does not recover.

Athletic ClubHome

Edin Terzić

4-2-3-1Probable

AlavesAway

Quique Sánchez Flores

3-5-2Probable

Goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Athletic repeated this eleven against Atletico Madrid and Elche.

07Shape and plan

A back five against a crossing side

Sánchez Flores has settled on a 3-5-2 that becomes a back five without the ball, and Alaves have held opponents to 10.2 shots a game in La Liga. Athletic's answer at home has been volume: 19 shots against Elche, 18 against Sevilla, 13.8 a game overall. The question is whether Bilbao can find a way through the middle rather than round the outside, because crossing into three centre-backs is how the Elche 1-1 happened.

Sancet between the lines

With a back five and a midfield three, the space Alaves give away is in front of their defence. Oihan Sancet is the one Athletic player who lives there, and Terzić has kept him as the number ten through the unbeaten run. Alaves' xG conceded of 0.93 a game says they rarely let anyone into that zone; Athletic's 1.33 xG per home game says they get there often enough.

Alaves on the counter, Boyé and Mariano

Away from Vitoria this is a transition team. They took 15 shots at Rayo from 52% possession and 16 at Racing from 43%. Mariano Díaz has three goals and three assists in La Liga this season and Boyé stretches the last line. Athletic's xG conceded of 1.52 per game across five league matches is the highest number on their page, and it comes from exactly this shape.

08Three duels

Oihan Sancet

Athletic Club · AM

The only Athletic player who takes up position inside a back five, and the one who has to solve it if the wide crossing does not work.

Started all five La Liga matches

Nico Williams

Athletic Club · LW

Isolating Tenaglia on the right of the Alaves three is the cleanest route to a first goal, and Athletic won 6.2 corners a game doing it.

6.2 corners won per game as a team

Mariano Díaz

Alaves · ST

Alaves' most productive attacker and the finisher who turns a deep block into a 1-0, as at Villarreal from 0.81 xG.

3 goals and 3 assists in La Liga this season

Ville Koski

Alaves · CB

The middle of the three, and with Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez both out with cruciate injuries the organiser Alaves cannot replace.

1.00 goals conceded per game in La Liga

Part three

The call

Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.

09How it could go

Three ways this match goes

Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first

50%chanceMost likely
Athletic wear them down
Bilbao hold the ball, a first half of crosses and nothing. Then the pattern of the Atletico match: a goal after the break, Alaves have to come out, the second follows, and one counter gets them back in. Athletic 2-1.
28%chance
The Villarreal script
Alaves defend as they did against Villarreal, 9 shots to 19, and Athletic repeat the Elche afternoon: all the ball, 19 shots, one goal. A 1-1, or a 0-0 if Bilbao have no centre-forward. The draw is a live 28%.
22%chance
Alaves' ratings come true
The 74% long-term quality rating and the 1732 Elo are not noise. With both Athletic centre-forwards missing, one Alaves counter is enough and the block does the rest. A 0-1 or 1-2 - priced at 4.96, we make it shorter.

The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.

Alaves are third on the table and higher on the ratings. They are also a team that has won three times in Vitoria and taken one point from two trips. San Mamés is the test they have not passed yet.

DeepPreviews analysis desk

10The verdict

Athletic edge a tight one at San Mamés

We make it Athletic Club 50%, the draw 28%, Alaves 22%, against a market that reads 56-25-19 - close enough that no single finding has to carry the argument. Neither club is in crisis: Terzić's rough opening, two defeats and a dressing-room row over scrapped family tickets, has been answered with two wins and a draw, and Sánchez Flores has Alaves third on 10 points from 5 played. The player checks cut both ways and neither is decisive. Athletic have coped without Guruzeta - they beat Atletico 3-0 and drew with Elche in the two matches he has missed - so his absence is worth little, and Iñaki Williams has not missed a match this season, so there is no with-or-without evidence to lean on; the honest reading is that losing both at once would thin the attack rather than break it. Alaves lose two centre-backs to cruciate injuries and have still conceded 1.00 a game. What separates them is venue: Alaves score 1.00 and concede 1.50 per game away, and Athletic have produced 1.33 xG against 0.71 in three home matches. We keep the draw at 28% because that is exactly how the Elche afternoon went, which is why the safer call is a goals line and not the win.

Athletic Club 2-1 Alaves

What would change our mind

If Iñaki Williams and Guruzeta are both ruled out, drop the over 2.5 riskier call and keep the over 1.5.
If Alaves start a fourth defender instead of Aleñá, expect the Villarreal script and shorten the goals leans.
If a referee with a high card average is appointed, it changes nothing here - there is no cards call on this board.

Quick answers

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Alaves?: Athletic Club, priced at 1.68 against 4.96 for Alaves and 3.69 for the draw. Our own reading is a little closer: Athletic 50%, the draw 28%, Alaves 22%. Athletic are unbeaten in three La Liga matches and Alaves have taken one point from their two away trips this season.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Alaves?: Athletic Club 2-1 Alaves, at confidence 3. Athletic have created 1.33 xG per game across three home matches while conceding just 0.71, and Alaves concede 1.50 per game away. Alaves have scored in all five of their La Liga matches, which is why we expect them to get on the board.
Is Iñaki Williams playing for Athletic Club?: He is a doubt. Iñaki Williams was substituted with a foot knock against Elche on 12 September and is rated day to day. Gorka Guruzeta, the other recognised centre-forward, is also working his way back from a hamstring problem, so Athletic may have to improvise up front.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?: Across the last eight competitive meetings Athletic Club have won five, Alaves one and two were drawn. The fixture averages 2.00 goals a meeting, both sides scored in only two of the eight, and only one cleared 2.5 goals. Alaves' one win was 1-0 in Bilbao in September 2025.
What are the calls for Athletic Club vs Alaves?: The safer call is over 1.5 goals at 1.31, confidence 4: nine of the ten La Liga matches these sides have played this season produced at least two goals. The riskier call is over 2.5 goals at 2.00, confidence 3, which the predicted 2-1 clears. Four further leans sit on the board.

Written 14 Sept 2026, 19:15 · Updated 14 Sept 2026, 19:15 UTC.

AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.