vs
Ajax vs Willem II
Tue 15 Sept · 20:00Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
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AjaxHomeWillem IIAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Ajax to win. We make it 82% Ajax, 12% draw, 6% Willem II, and the score we write down is 3-1.
- The one stat
- Willem II have conceded 14 goals in five Eredivisie matches. That is 2.80 a game, and Ajax score 2.80.
- The risk
- Ajax have won neither home league match this season (2-2, 1-3), and Willem II parked the bus for a 1-1 at AZ.
- The calls
- Safer: over 2.5 goals at 1.21. Riskier: over 3.5 goals at 1.59. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Ajax vs Willem II prediction starts from a replayed round three. This fixture was lifted out of August to make room for Ajax's Conference League play-off against Sion, so a Tuesday night in September carries a match from the opening weeks. Ajax come in fifth on 10 points from five matches (W3 D1 L1), three days after winning 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard, their eighth win in eleven competitive matches this season.
Neither club is in crisis by our test. Ajax lost 1-3 at home to PSV on 5 September and answered it at once. Willem II have not lost three in a row either, and there is no talk of Stegeman going. What Willem II do have is an emptied spine: captain Justin Hoogma is out for months with a knee injury, and the second and third captains, Jari Schuurman and Thomas Didillon-Hodl, have not played this season. They are 17th with two points from five (W0 D2 L3) and a goal difference of minus nine.
Michel Sanchez took the Ajax job on 2 June and has gone 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in eleven competitive matches, 36 scored and 16 conceded. John Stegeman, in the job since July 2025 and the man who took Willem II up from the Eerste Divisie in May, showed his answer at AZ on Friday: 33% of the ball, 22 shots allowed, a 1-1 stolen at the death. He will try it again. The problem is that Ajax's last five home competitive matches have produced 3.00 goals for and 2.00 against.
The markets
Total goals
Over 2.5
Four of five league games for each side went over 2.5 and all five of Ajax's last five home competitive matches did; we make it 76% against the 77% priced.
Total goals
Over 3.5
Ajax's last five home competitive matches averaged 5.00 goals between the sides and the Eredivisie is running at 3.90 a match; our 3-1 clears this line.
Result & goals
Match result
AjaxPrice 1.17
5/5A 336-point Elo gap, Ajax scoring 2.80 a league game and Willem II conceding 2.80: we make Ajax 82% against the 81% the price implies.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Asian handicap
Ajax -1.25Price 1.33
4/5Willem II have conceded 2.80 goals a league match and been outshot in four of five; Ajax have won their last three away league games by an aggregate 11-1.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIsTeam news
European handicap
Ajax -1Price 1.44
3/5Ajax have beaten Willem II by two or more in three of the last eight competitive meetings and average 21.4 shots a league match to Willem II's 11.6.
EvidenceHead-to-headGoals table
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.61
3/5Both teams scored in all five of Ajax's last five home competitive matches and in four of Willem II's five league games; we make it 62% against the 58% priced.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 20:00 Amsterdam time
- Tuesday
- Referee
- Allard Lindhout
- 2.76 yellows per match
- Weather
- Light showers, 16 °C
- 60% rain chance, brisk south-westerly
- Rest
- 3 days vs 4
- Ajax won 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard on Saturday
- Fixture
- Rearranged round 3
- moved from August for Ajax's play-off tie
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, why the cards stay low, and the one corner count that is not worth arguing about.
01Goals
The symmetry is the argument. Ajax have scored 2.80 goals per Eredivisie match this season; Willem II have conceded 2.80. Ajax's league xG reads 1.92 for and 1.41 against over five matches, Willem II's 1.38 and 2.09, and Willem II have been outshot in four of those five. Four of Ajax's five league games and four of Willem II's have gone over 2.5 goals.
Home form is the honest doubt. Ajax have drawn 2-2 with Heerenveen and lost 1-3 to PSV in their two league matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena, and their last five home competitive matches averaged 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded, with both teams scoring in all five. That is a side that wins its home matches loudly or not at all, and it is the reason we take goals rather than a wide margin.
The division backs it up: 3.90 goals a match across 50 matches this season, 80% over 2.5 and 76% both teams scoring. Willem II's low block at AZ produced a 1-1 and only two goals, but AZ are not a side averaging 21.4 shots a league game. Ajax are.
Ajax score 2.80 goals a league match; Willem II concede 2.80. Both sides' league games have gone over 2.5 four times in five.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, 5 matches each
| Metric | AjaxHome | Willem IIAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| xG for per game | 1.92 | 1.38 |
| xG against per game | 1.41 | 2.09 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Ajax have out-created every league opponent except PSV; Willem II have been outshot in four of five and beaten on xG in three.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, four matches per side carrying xG
AjaxHome
avg xG 1.92 · avg xGA 1.41
0–2W
PEC Zwolle (A)
2–2D
Heerenveen (H)
0–4W
Telstar (A)
1–3L
PSV Eindhoven (H)
Willem IIAway
avg xG 1.38 · avg xGA 2.09
4–1L
GO Ahead Eagles (A)
1–4L
NEC Nijmegen (H)
2–2D
Heerenveen (H)
0–3L
Excelsior (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Ajax have won six of the last eight competitive meetings and lost one, at 2.75 goals a meeting with both sides scoring in three of the eight.
6
Ajax
1
Draws
1
Willem II
13 Apr 2025·Eredivisie
Willem II1–2Ajax27 Oct 2024·Eredivisie
Ajax1–0Willem II19 Feb 2022·Eredivisie
Willem II0–1Ajax2 Dec 2021·Eredivisie
Ajax5–0Willem II28 Jan 2021·Eredivisie
Ajax3–1Willem II23 Dec 2020·Eredivisie
Willem II1–1Ajax6 Dec 2019·Eredivisie
Ajax0–2Willem II5 May 2019·KNVB Beker
Willem II0–4Ajax
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Match result
Ajax
Price 1.175/5Total goals
Over 2.5Safer
Price 1.214/5Asian handicap
Ajax -1.25
Price 1.334/5European handicap
Ajax -1
Price 1.443/5Total goals
Over 3.5Riskier
Price 1.593/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.613/5
02Cards
Allard Lindhout is not a card machine, and neither is Willem II. He averages 2.76 yellows across 338 career matches, against an Eredivisie average of 2.78 this season. Willem II have collected 1.0 card per league match and not one of their five league games has reached four cards, which is what a side sitting deep and conceding shots rather than fouls looks like.
Ajax pick up more, 2.6 a league match, and their five league games have averaged 4.8 cards between the sides. That figure is carried by the 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard and the PSV defeat rather than by a habit. With no card line priced for this match, it stays analysis.
Lindhout averages 2.76 yellows a match across 338 matches, right on the Eredivisie's 2.78 this season. No card inflation to price in.
Sample: Allard Lindhout career record, 338 matches, all competitions
Allard Lindhout
338 matches this season
league average
Willem II take 1.0 card a league match and their games average 1.6, barely half the Eredivisie's 2.90 this season.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, 5 matches each
| Metric | AjaxHome | Willem IIAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Cards in their matches | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 80% | 0% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
Ajax win 6.6 corners a league match and concede 2.6. Willem II win 4.2 and concede 6.4. Ajax's league games have averaged 9.2 corners and Willem II's 10.6, either side of a league average of 10.36 across 50 matches.
A low block pushes the count up for the side doing the pressing and drags the total down when the pressing produces crosses rather than shots: two of Ajax's five league matches went over 9.5 corners, three of Willem II's. That is a coin flip with a fancy hat on, so we leave it in the chapter and off the board.
Ajax take 6.6 corners a league match and give up 2.6; Willem II concede 6.4. Their games average 9.2 and 10.6 against a league 10.36.
Sample: Eredivisie 2026/27, 5 matches each
| Metric | AjaxHome | Willem IIAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for per game | 6.6 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per game | 2.6 | 6.4 |
| Corners in their matches | 9.2 | 10.6 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 336
- Elo points between the two sides
- Ajax 1797, Willem II 1461. A gap that size wins roughly two matches in three before home advantage is added.
- 2.80
- Willem II goals conceded per league game
- Fourteen in five Eredivisie matches, and Ajax score exactly 2.80 a league game at the other end.
- 5/5
- Ajax home games over 2.5, all competitions
- Their last five home competitive matches produced 3.00 goals for and 2.00 against. Nothing at this ground stays quiet.
Three figures carry the piece: the 336-point Elo gap, Willem II conceding 2.80 a league match, and five goals a game in Ajax's last five home competitive matches. Everything on the board follows from them.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Ajax have lost a captain and coped. Willem II have lost three and have not.
05Team news
Willem II's first, second and third captains are all absent; they have conceded 14 goals in the five league matches played without them.
AjaxHome
Aaron BouwmanCB
bruised sternum and lung, back in October
Goals
OutSimon AdingraLW
ankle
Goals
OutDaley BlindDF
physical complaints
Result
Doubtful
Willem IIAway
Justin HoogmaCB
knee, out for months
GoalsResult
OutThomas Didillon-HodlGK
hamstring
Goals
OutJari Schuurman
back
Result
OutVito van CrooijRW
training injury
Goals
OutArmin Culum
foot
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Confirmed by club and national reporting between 10 and 13 September. Ajax have played one match without Bouwman and won it 5-1, so we grade him a 2, not a 3.
06Expected XI
Michel changed three places on Saturday and can rotate again on three days' rest; Stegeman is expected to repeat the eleven that took a point at AZ.
AjaxHome
Michel Sanchez
Willem IIAway
John Stegeman
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Probable XIs from preview reporting on 13 September.
07Shape and plan
The bus and the battering ram
Willem II took 33% of the ball at AZ, allowed 22 shots and came away with 1-1. Ajax are a harder proposition for that plan: 21.4 shots a league match and 6.6 corners. Willem II have faced 17.8 shots a league game and conceded 2.80 goals. A block holds until it does not, and Ajax's last five home competitive matches all went over 2.5.
Ajax's left, Willem II's right
Caio Henrique and Oliver Edvardsen work the side Hidde ter Avest defends, with Nathan Tjoe-A-On tucked in behind on the other flank. Ajax's 66% possession at Fortuna Sittard came with 11 corners; the wide overloads are where the second and third goals have arrived this season.
Set pieces without a captain
Willem II defend set plays without Justin Hoogma and with a reserve goalkeeper, having conceded 2.6 corners a match fewer than they face. Ajax win 6.6 corners a league match. Thilo Kehrer and Youri Baas will both be in the box.
Rotation risk for Ajax
Three days after a 5-1 and four days before Excelsior, Michel has Kasper Dolberg, Oscar Gloukh, Davy Klaassen and Viktor Tsygankov on the bench. A rotated Ajax is still a wider gulf than the price on any Willem II shape covers, but it is the reason our confidence sits at 4 and not 5.
08Three duels
Tolu Arokodare
Ajax · ST
Ajax's centre-forward against two centre-backs who have shipped 14 in five. He led the line in the 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard.
Steven Berghuis
Ajax · RW
Ajax's creator from the right, working the flank Tjoe-A-On has to hold while Willem II sit deep.
Devin Haen
Willem II · ST
Scored the equaliser at AZ in the 80th minute and is the outlet a 4-2-3-1 low block lives on.
Maxime Delanghe
Willem II · GK
Deputising for the injured Didillon-Hodl behind a side that faces 17.8 shots a league match.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 82%chanceMost likely
Ajax wear the block down
Willem II hold for half an hour, then Ajax move it wide and a cutback breaks them before the interval. Ajax have led at half-time in three of five league matches. The block loosens, Haen gets one back against a defence with no clean sheet in five at home, and it finishes 3-1.
- 12%chance
The AZ replay
Willem II repeat Friday exactly: two banks of four, 30% of the ball, everything long. Ajax miss what they missed against Heerenveen, a set piece levels it, and the Arena gets nervous. Ajax have won neither home league match this season, so this is no fantasy.
- 6%chance
Willem II steal it
Ajax rotate heavily three days after a 5-1 and four days before Excelsior, a mistake at the back gives Willem II an early lead, and Delanghe has the night of his life against 20-odd shots. Willem II have not won a league match all season, which is why this sits at six.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Ajax score 2.80 a league game. Willem II concede 2.80. A low block can move that number for an hour, not for ninety minutes.
10The verdict
Ajax by two, and the goals come with it
We make it 82% Ajax, 12% draw, 6% Willem II, which sits on top of the 81/12/7 the price implies, so there is no gap to explain. Neither club fails the crisis test, but the player check separates them: Willem II have played every league match without their captain Justin Hoogma and without the second and third captains, and have conceded 14 goals in those five; Ajax lost their own captain, Aaron Bouwman, to a bruised sternum and lung on 5 September and won 5-1 without him three days ago, which is why we grade that absence a 2 and build nothing on it. Michel Sanchez has 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from eleven competitive matches since taking over on 2 June. The honest doubt is Ajax's home league record, a 2-2 and a 1-3 from two matches, and John Stegeman's willingness to sit as deep as he did at AZ. That doubt argues against a wide margin, not against goals: Ajax's last five home competitive matches averaged 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, with both teams scoring every time. Ajax 3-1, and over 2.5 goals at 1.21 is the ground we are surest of.
What would change our mind
- If Michel rests Arokodare and Berghuis together, drop the handicap lean and keep the goals calls.
- If Willem II name a back five rather than the AZ 4-2-3-1, over 3.5 goals is the call that suffers.
- If heavy rain arrives before kick-off, the riskier call loses a little; the safer call does not.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Ajax vs Willem II?
- Ajax. They are 336 Elo points clear of Willem II, sit fifth on 10 points from five matches (W3 D1 L1) and are priced 1.17 to win. Our own numbers make it 82% Ajax, 12% draw, 6% Willem II, which is almost exactly what the price implies.
- What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Willem II?
- Ajax 3-1. Ajax have scored 2.80 goals per Eredivisie match this season and Willem II have conceded 2.80 across their five. Both teams scored in all five of Ajax's last five home competitive matches and in four of Willem II's five league games, which is why we do not write a clean sheet.
- Who is injured for Ajax and Willem II?
- Ajax are without captain Aaron Bouwman, who suffered a bruised sternum and lung against PSV on 5 September and is not expected back until October, and Simon Adingra (ankle); Daley Blind is a doubt. Willem II are missing captain Justin Hoogma (knee, out for months), second captain Jari Schuurman, goalkeeper Thomas Didillon-Hodl, Vito van Crooij and Armin Culum.
- What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
- In the last eight competitive meetings Ajax have won six, Willem II one and one was drawn, at 2.75 goals a meeting with both sides scoring in three of the eight. Willem II's win was 2-0 at the Johan Cruijff Arena in December 2019. Ajax took the most recent, 2-1 in Tilburg in April 2025.
- Why is Ajax vs Willem II played on a Tuesday?
- It is a rearranged round-three fixture. The original August date was moved because Ajax were playing their Conference League play-off against Sion. Ajax come in on three days' rest after winning 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard; Willem II had four days after a 1-1 at AZ.
Written 13 Sept 2026, 19:10 · Updated 13 Sept 2026, 19:10 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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