Venezia vs Fiorentina
Fri 11 Sept · 20:45Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
In short
In short
- The call
- Venezia at home in a match that should break open. We would write down a 2-1 home win and take goals over caution.
- The one stat
- Nine competitive matches between these two this season, nine with at least two goals, and not one clean sheet on either side.
- The risk
- Fiorentina have the stronger squad, and a new coach usually tightens a defence first. Vanoli's opening eleven is genuinely unpredictable.
- The calls
- Safer: over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Riskier: Venezia to win at 2.77. Five more leans on the board.
The situation
Two clubs arrive at the Penzo on Friday night with the same line in the table: zero points from three matches. Venezia sit 18th, Fiorentina 20th, and the away side carry the uglier goal difference at minus eight against minus five. One of them leaves Venice with a first point of the season, and possibly a first win.
Fiorentina's week was the louder one. Fabio Grosso was dismissed after three league games and Paolo Vanoli, who steadied the club last season, was brought back on a two-year deal with an option for a third. He is expected to set up in a 4-3-3 built around Nicolò Fagioli in the middle, and he has four days to install it. Christ Oulai, who started the 1-2 home defeat to Torino, picked up an injury in that match and may be out for a long stretch.
Venezia's problem is narrower and more familiar. Giovanni Stroppa's side have had the ball and lost anyway: 61% possession at Frosinone, 71% at home to Lecce, four defeats in a row across all competitions. Two goals scored and seven conceded in three Serie A matches is a relegation line, and it is being written by a team that keeps arriving in the final third without finishing.
The markets
Total goals
Over 1.5
Nine competitive matches between them this season, nine with at least two goals, and neither side has kept a clean sheet: Venezia concede 2.20 a game across five, Fiorentina 2.50 across four.
EvidenceGoals table
Match result
Venezia
Venezia won this fixture 2-1 the last time it was played and have taken two of the four Serie A meetings; Fiorentina arrive without Oulai, with a coach appointed four days earlier and nine goals conceded in three league matches.
Result & goals
Double chance
Venezia or drawPrice 1.53
3/5Venezia are at home to a side that has conceded nine goals in three Serie A matches and changed coach four days ago, and the draw on its own is priced at 3.37.
EvidenceGoals tableProbable XIs
Both teams to score
YesPrice 1.63
3/5Clean sheets stand at zero from five for Venezia and zero from four for Fiorentina, and Fiorentina are likely without Oulai from the midfield screening a defence that concedes 2.50 a game.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Total goals
Over 2.5Price 1.80
3/5All four of Fiorentina's competitive matches this season have produced at least three goals, and Venezia's have cleared 2.5 in three of five.
EvidenceGoals table
Cards
Total cards
Under 4.5
3/5Venezia's matches have averaged 3.6 cards this season and Fiorentina's 3.0, both around the 3.39 Serie A average, and no referee has been appointed to change that read.
EvidenceDiscipline
Corners
Total corners
Under 9.5Price 1.73
3/5Venezia's matches average 8.6 corners a game and Fiorentina's 8.8, both under the 9.07 Serie A average, with over 9.5 landing in only three of the nine.
EvidenceCorners
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 20:45 Venice time
- Friday
- Weather
- 21 °C, overcast
- roughly a one-in-three chance of rain at kick-off
- Coaches
- Stroppa vs Vanoli
- Vanoli appointed this week
- Table
- 18th vs 20th
- both on zero points from three matches
- Rest
- 5 days vs 6
- neither side played midweek
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, why the cards and corners lines sit low, and what nine matches without a clean sheet say about this one.
01Goals
Neither of these teams can defend, and neither has managed to hide it. Venezia have conceded in all five competitive matches this season, Fiorentina in all four. That is nine matches, nine without a clean sheet, and 21 goals shipped between them.
The scoring is thinner. Venezia have two goals in three Serie A matches; Fiorentina have one in three, and it came in a home defeat to Torino. Widen the lens to all competitive matches and the picture softens a little, because both sides scored freely in the Coppa Italia: 1.20 goals a game for Venezia across five, 1.25 for Fiorentina across four.
That gap between a leaking defence and a blunt attack is exactly where the goals markets live. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.80 and over 1.5 at 1.23. The second is the one that holds without argument: every single one of those nine matches produced at least two goals, and four of Fiorentina's four produced at least three.
Nine competitive matches this season, nine without a clean sheet: Venezia concede 2.20 a game, Fiorentina 2.50.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Venezia 5, Fiorentina 4 (the Serie A sample is only three each)
| Metric | VeneziaHome | FiorentinaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.2 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Four Serie A meetings, four tight ones: 1.25 goals a meeting, both teams scoring in only one of the four, over 2.5 landing once. Venezia have won two of them, including the most recent.
2
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Fiorentina
12 May 2025·Serie A
Venezia2–1Fiorentina25 Aug 2024·Serie A
Fiorentina0–0Venezia16 Apr 2022·Serie A
Fiorentina1–0Venezia18 Oct 2021·Serie A
Venezia1–0Fiorentina
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total goals
Over 1.5Safer
Price 1.234/5Match result
VeneziaBolder
Price 2.772/5Double chance
Venezia or draw
Price 1.533/5Both teams to score
Yes
Price 1.633/5Total goals
Over 2.5
Price 1.803/5
02Cards
Nothing here points to a card storm. Venezia's matches have averaged 3.6 cards this season and Fiorentina's 3.0, against a Serie A average of 3.39 across the 28 matches played so far. Over 3.5 cards has landed in five of the nine matches the two have played, almost exactly the league's own 50% rate.
Venezia are the busier foulers on weighted season averages, 13.65 a game against Fiorentina's 11.91, but the fouls have not been turning into bookings. The referee has not been appointed yet, which removes the single biggest variable in a cards market and is a reason to lean under and lean small.
Venezia's matches average 3.6 cards and Fiorentina's 3.0, both sitting around the 3.39 Serie A average.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Venezia 5, Fiorentina 4; league averages from 28 Serie A matches
| Metric | VeneziaHome | FiorentinaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 60% | 50% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Under 4.5
3/5
03Corners
Corners follow the same shape. Venezia's matches have produced 8.6 a game this season and Fiorentina's 8.8, both under the Serie A average of 9.07. Over 9.5 has landed in three of the nine matches between them; league-wide it lands 36% of the time.
Venezia win marginally more than they concede, 4.4 against 4.2, and their possession does invite the away side to sit deep. But their one big corner count of the season, ten of them, came in the Coppa Italia against Modena, not in Serie A, where they have taken 3.3 a game. Under 9.5 at 1.73 is the honest read.
Venezia's matches average 8.6 corners and Fiorentina's 8.8, both under the 9.07 Serie A average; over 9.5 hit in 3 of 9.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Venezia 5, Fiorentina 4; league average from 28 Serie A matches
| Metric | VeneziaHome | FiorentinaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Corners conceded per game | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 40% | 25% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Under 9.5
Price 1.733/5
04The numbers that matter
- 0
- points between them from six Serie A matches
- Venezia and Fiorentina have each lost all three. One of them has to start collecting points, and this is the softest fixture either will get.
- 9 of 9
- matches this season without a clean sheet
- Neither defence has shut anyone out in any competition. That is the spine of every goals lean on this board.
- 4 of 4
- Fiorentina matches with three or more goals
- Every competitive match Fiorentina have played this season has produced at least three goals, in both directions.
- 1.25
- goals per meeting in the last four
- The head-to-head pulls the other way: both teams scored in only one of the four, and over 2.5 landed once.
One number to hold onto before the leans: the market still makes Fiorentina the narrow favourite at 2.54 against Venezia's 2.77, with the draw at 3.37. That is a price for the squad, not for the form, and it is why the home side is the riskier side of this card rather than the obvious one.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Fiorentina changed coach four days before kick-off, which makes their eleven the biggest unknown on the card. Venezia's is close to settled.
05Team news
Fiorentina lose Christ Oulai, a starter last weekend, and he may be out for months; Venezia's three absentees are squad players.
VeneziaHome
Bartol FranjićDF
shoulder problem picked up in late August
Result
OutAndrea AdoranteFW
back surgery in July, due back in October
Goals
OutŠverkoDF
hip surgery in the summer, due back late October
Result
Out
FiorentinaAway
Christ OulaiMF
injured against Torino, reports suggest a long absence
ResultGoals
DoubtfulFabiano ParisiDF
cruciate ligament, due back in November
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Italian press reports of 7 and 8 September. No referee has been appointed for the match.
06Expected XI
Venezia should repeat the 3-5-2 that started at Frosinone; Fiorentina's eleven is open, with Vanoli expected to build a 4-3-3 around Fagioli.
VeneziaHome
Giovanni Stroppa
Venezia's eleven follows their most recent Serie A start. Fiorentina's is left out on purpose: Vanoli took charge four days before kick-off and his shape is not settled.
07Shape and plan
Possession without a punchline
Venezia had 61% of the ball at Frosinone and 71% at home against Lecce, and lost both. On weighted season averages they take 16.68 shots a game and put 5.85 on target, more than Fiorentina manage on either count, yet they have two Serie A goals in three matches. The ball is not the problem. The last pass is, and Stroppa has three months of Serie A ahead to fix it.
A new voice, an old shape
Vanoli is expected to reinstate a 4-3-3 with Fagioli as the deepest of a midfield three, and to bring marginalised players back into the group. Four days is enough to change a shape and not nearly enough to change a habit: Fiorentina have conceded nine goals in three league matches, four of them in one afternoon at Roma, and they lose Oulai from the exact area a back four needs screened.
Wing-backs against a back four
Haps and Hainaut give Venezia their width, and a 4-3-3 asks Fiorentina's wide forwards to run back with them. Fiorentina have had 39% and 40% possession in two of their three league games, so long spells defending the touchline are the likeliest texture of this match. That is also why the corner count stays modest: crosses from wing-backs against a deep block tend to be blocked out for throws, not corners.
08Three duels
Akor Adams
Venezia · ST
Stroppa's only reliable finisher, and the reference point everything wide is aimed at.
both of Venezia's two Serie A goals this season
Radu Drăgușin
Fiorentina · CB
The one Fiorentina defender with a settled place. He takes Adams, behind a line that has conceded nine in three league matches.
Gianluca Busio
Venezia · MF
The captain sets the tempo and carries the ball past the first line. Press him out of the game and Venezia's possession turns sterile.
64% average possession on weighted season averages
Nicolò Fagioli
Fiorentina · MF
Vanoli's stated plan puts him at the base of a three. His range is the fastest route out of the pressure Venezia will apply.
Ridgeciano Haps
Venezia · LWB
The outlet when the middle is blocked. Fiorentina's right side has to decide, quickly, who follows him.
Mateo Pellegrino
Fiorentina · FW
Starved rather than wasteful: Fiorentina have taken 16.0 shots a game in Serie A and scored once in three.
1 Fiorentina goal in 3 Serie A matches
Part three
The call
How the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 40%chanceMost likely
An open, ragged night
Neither back line copes. Venezia score first at the Penzo, Fiorentina answer through the middle, and it finishes 2-1 or 3-2. This is the version the numbers back hardest: nine competitive matches between them this season, nine with at least two goals, none with a clean sheet.
- 35%chance
The new-coach clean-up
Vanoli's first job is the defence. Fiorentina sit deeper in the 4-3-3, hand Venezia the ball as they did at Roma and against Torino, and win 1-0 or draw 1-1 off one clean counter. Precedent: Venezia had 71% of the ball at home to Lecce three weeks ago and lost 0-2.
- 25%chance
Venezia's evening
Stroppa's side finally convert the volume, 14.3 shots a game in Serie A, against a defence that has conceded nine in three. A 2-0 or 2-1 home win, their first points of the season, and the riskier lean at 2.77 lands.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Two teams with nothing on the board and no clean sheet between them. Someone has to win a football match at the Penzo, and the side whose coach has been in the building longer than four days starts with an edge.
10The verdict
Venezia's night, if they finally finish what they build
Fiorentina have the better squad and the better rating, and a new coach usually buys a tighter opening hour. But Vanoli has had four days, his midfield has probably lost Oulai, and the away side have conceded nine goals in three Serie A matches. Venezia have had the ball in every game this season and only the finishing has failed them; at the Penzo, against a defence in this state, that is the likeliest thing to change. We take the home side narrowly, and we expect goals at both ends whoever wins.
What would change our mind
- If Vanoli names a back three rather than a 4-3-3, downgrade the over 2.5 lean and keep over 1.5.
- If Oulai is passed fit, Fiorentina's midfield steadies and the Venezia win gets harder to defend.
- Once a referee is appointed, re-check the under 4.5 cards lean before it goes out.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer.
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