vs
Sassuolo vs Juventus
Sun 13 Sept · 20:45Mapei Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
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In short
In short
- The call
- Juventus. The market makes them 59%, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 17%, and one goal conceded in three matches is why.
- The one stat
- Juventus have conceded one goal in three Serie A matches, keeping two clean sheets, with 0.33 xG against per game.
- The risk
- Eight Juventus players hurt in three weeks, Locatelli among them, and Sassuolo have scored in all five matches.
- The calls
- Safer: Juventus or draw at 1.14. Riskier: Juventus -1 at 2.02. Six more leans on the board.
The situation
Sassuolo are tenth with four points from three matches (W1 D1 L1) and a goal difference of zero, under Alberto Aquilani, appointed in June. They have scored in every one of their five competitive matches this season and kept a clean sheet in one of them. Juventus are sixth with seven points from three (W2 D1 L0), unbeaten, and have conceded a single goal all season.
Any Sassuolo vs Juventus prediction starts in the away treatment room. Manuel Locatelli tore the external meniscus in his knee and had it operated on this week; the captain is not expected back before 2027. Kenan Yildiz (foot surgery, due early December) and Khephren Thuram (knee, early 2027) were already out, Jérémie Boga faces six to eight weeks, and Andrea Cambiaso, Weston McKennie and Sarr are doubts. Luciano Spalletti has lost eight players in three weeks of the season.
Sassuolo have a list of their own. Cristian Volpato pulled up with a muscle injury in the 2-2 at Bologna and is unlikely to make it, Ismaël Koné is out until January with a broken leg, and Boloca, Candé, Pieragnolo and Walukiewicz are all sidelined or doubtful. Domenico Berardi is back, having returned for the Torino win. Neither side played in midweek: seven days' rest each, with Juventus opening their Europa League campaign at home to N.E.C. Nijmegen four days after this.
The markets
Double chance
Juventus or draw
Fair probability 83% once the 59% win chance and the 24% draw are added; Juventus are unbeaten with one goal conceded in three Serie A matches and Sassuolo have won once in three.
EvidenceGoalsHead-to-headTeam news
Asian handicap
Juventus -1
Fair probability 47%, the verdict's own view at a longer price: Juventus have won 2-0 and 1-0 this season and won the last meeting here 3-0, while Sassuolo have kept one clean sheet in five.
EvidenceGoalsHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
JuventusPrice 1.60
3/5Fair probability 59%. Two clean sheets in three league matches and 0.33 xG conceded per game outweigh an injury list that is almost entirely attacking and midfield.
EvidenceGoalsTeam newsProbable XIs
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.26
4/5Fair probability just under 75%. Sassuolo have scored in all five competitive matches and conceded in four; the league runs at 2.73 goals a game across 30 matches.
EvidenceGoalsHead-to-head
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.37
4/5Fair probability 69%. None of Juventus's three matches passed 2.5 goals and they have conceded 0.33 a game, so the four-goal outcomes need Sassuolo to score twice against the meanest defence they have met this season.
EvidenceGoalsDiscipline
Total goals
Under 1.51st halfPrice 1.44
3/5Fair probability just under 65%. Juventus have produced one first-half goal in three league matches, 0.33 a game, and went in level in two of the three.
EvidenceGoals
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5
2/5Juventus's three Serie A matches have all gone over 3.5 cards at 4.3 a game, with opponents taking 2.7 of them; the league goes over in half of its 30 games. No referee appointed, so it stays small.
EvidenceDiscipline
Corners
Total corners
Over 8.5Price 1.68
3/5Fair probability 55%. Juventus have won 9.7 corners a game and their matches have averaged 11.7; Sassuolo's have averaged 10.4, both above the 9.20 league mean.
EvidenceCorners
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 20:45 Reggio Emilia time
- Sunday
- Venue
- Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia
- Sassuolo have taken 6 points at home from 3 matches
- Weather
- Dry, about 21 °C
- Sunny day, 5% rain chance, light south-easterly breeze
- Rest
- 7 days vs 7
- Neither side played in midweek
- Next up
- Juventus host N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Europa League, 17 September
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, why the cards sit above the league line, and who owns the corner flag.
01Goals
The market makes Juventus 59%, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 17%. Nothing in the last 72 hours moves that far. Juventus have lost attacking and midfield players, and the number holding the price up is defensive: one goal conceded in three Serie A matches, two clean sheets, 0.33 expected goals against per game across the two league games with published xG. They have faced 6.0 shots a match in the league.
Sassuolo are not easy to shut out. They have scored in all five competitive matches and conceded in four; all three of their Serie A games produced both teams scoring and went past 2.5 goals. But those were Bologna, Torino and Atalanta, and the five-match sample leans on two Coppa Italia rounds. Juventus have not been near a three-goal game: none of their three matches went over 2.5. Over 1.5 goals is fair at just under 75% and under 3.5 at 69%, which reads as a two- or three-goal match with the visitors in front of it.
Juventus have conceded 0.33 goals per game; Sassuolo have scored in all five matches but kept only one clean sheet.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Sassuolo 5, Juventus 3 (Serie A sample under four)
| Metric | SassuoloHome | JuventusAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.8 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.2 | 0.33 |
| xG created per game | 2.06 | 1.88 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.34 | 0.33 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 67% |
| First-half goals per match | 1.6 | 0.33 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Juventus have won five of the eight competitive meetings, Sassuolo two, one drawn, at 3.00 goals a meeting with over 2.5 in six of the eight; the last two were a 1-1 in Turin and a 0-3 for Juventus at the Mapei.
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
5
Juventus
21 Mar 2026·Serie A
Juventus1–1Sassuolo6 Jan 2026·Serie A
Sassuolo0–3Juventus16 Jan 2024·Serie A
Juventus3–0Sassuolo23 Sept 2023·Serie A
Sassuolo4–2Juventus16 Apr 2023·Serie A
Sassuolo1–0Juventus15 Aug 2022·Serie A
Juventus3–0Sassuolo25 Apr 2022·Serie A
Sassuolo1–2Juventus10 Feb 2022·Coppa Italia
Juventus2–1Sassuolo
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Juventus or drawSafer
Price 1.145/5Match result
Juventus
Price 1.603/5Asian handicap
Juventus -1Riskier
Price 2.022/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.264/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.374/5Total goals
Under 1.51st half
Price 1.443/5
02Cards
No referee has been appointed yet, so the discipline case rests on the two squads. Juventus matches have been the busier ones: 4.3 cards a match across their three Serie A games, over 3.5 in all three, with opponents taking 2.7 of them. Sassuolo's five competitive matches have averaged 2.8. The league sits at 3.33 cards a match, with half of the 30 games played going over 3.5.
The shape of the evening argues the same way. Juventus keep the ball, Sassuolo chase it and foul at the moment it is lost, and Aquilani's side already collect 1.2 cards a game while their opponents pick up 1.6. Without a referee profile this stays the smallest lean on the board.
Juventus matches have averaged 4.3 cards and gone over 3.5 in all three; Sassuolo's five have averaged 2.8, against a league mean of 3.33.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Sassuolo 5, Juventus 3 (Serie A sample under four)
| Metric | SassuoloHome | JuventusAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Opponent cards per game | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Cards per match in their games | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 60% | 100% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
2/5
03Corners
Corners are where the gap is widest and it still points at a busy count. Juventus have won 9.7 a game and conceded 2.0 in their three Serie A matches, the by-product of 18.3 shots for and 6.0 against. Sassuolo have won 5.0 and conceded 5.4 across five competitive matches.
Add the two together and both sides' games have cleared ten corners on average, 10.4 and 11.7, against a league average of 9.20 and over 9.5 in 40% of the 30 matches played. Sassuolo also take 16.2 shots a game themselves, so this is not a match where one side simply sits and the ball dies.
Juventus have won 9.7 corners a game to Sassuolo's 5.0; both sides' matches have averaged over ten, against a league mean of 9.20.
Sample: This season's competitive matches: Sassuolo 5, Juventus 3 (Serie A sample under four)
| Metric | SassuoloHome | JuventusAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 5.0 | 9.7 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.4 | 2.0 |
| Corners per match in their games | 10.4 | 11.7 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 40% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Over 8.5
Price 1.683/5
04The numbers that matter
- 0.33
- Juventus goals conceded per game
- One goal in three Serie A matches with two clean sheets. It is the number the 1.60 price is built on.
- 5 of 5
- Sassuolo matches in which they scored
- Aquilani's side have found the net in every competitive game, which is why the goal band matters more than a shut-out.
- 9.7
- Juventus corners won per game
- Against 2.0 conceded in three Serie A matches. Sassuolo concede 5.4 a game and the count should run high.
- 83%
- Fair chance Juventus avoid defeat
- The 59% win chance plus the 24% draw. That combination is the safest call on the board at 1.14.
Two things do not show up in the tables. Sassuolo have led at half-time in one of their three Serie A matches and been level in another, and Juventus have gone in level in two of three, with a single first-half goal in the three of them. Elo puts the visitors 151 points clear, 1811 to 1660, which is roughly what the price says.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Juventus have lost eight players in three weeks, Sassuolo four. The shape of both midfields is the story.
05Team news
Locatelli, Yildiz and Thuram are all out for months for Juventus; Sassuolo look like losing Volpato from the front line.
SassuoloHome
Cristian VolpatoFW
muscle injury at Bologna on 6 September
GoalsResult
DoubtfulIsmaël KonéMF
tibia and fibula fracture, due back in January
Result
OutCandéDF
cruciate ligament rupture
Goals
OutDaniel BolocaMF
knee arthroscopy
Cards
DoubtfulSebastian WalukiewiczDF
muscle problem
Goals
DoubtfulDarryl BakolaMF
knock
Result
DoubtfulSimone PieragnoloDF
cruciate ligament reconstruction
Out
JuventusAway
Manuel LocatelliMF
external meniscus surgery, not expected back in 2026
ResultCards
OutKenan YildizFW
foot surgery, due back early December
GoalsResult
OutKhephren ThuramMF
knee surgery, due back early 2027
Result
OutAndrea CambiasoDF
ankle sprain, targeting mid-September
GoalsCorners
DoubtfulWeston McKennieMF
muscle fatigue
Result
DoubtfulJuan CabalDF
hamstring, due back in October
OutJérémie BogaFW
hamstring, six to eight weeks
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Italian national and club reporting, 6-8 September 2026.
06Expected XI
Aquilani keeps 4-3-3 with Berardi back on the right; Spalletti pairs Douglas Luiz and Koopmeiners with Locatelli gone.
SassuoloHome
Alberto Aquilani
JuventusAway
Luciano Spalletti
Probable XIs published by the Italian press on 8 September; both sides carry late doubts. Listed goalkeeper first, then each line left to right.
07Shape and plan
A pivot without its captain
Locatelli started every Serie A match before the meniscus went. Douglas Luiz and Koopmeiners are the pairing behind, and with McKennie a doubt there is no natural third. Juventus have still conceded only one goal in three league games, but the first pass will be slower.
Sassuolo's volume against a wall
Sassuolo take 16.2 shots a game across five competitive matches. Juventus have faced 6.0 a game in the league and 2.63 on target per game on their weighted season averages. Something gives: either the home side's shot count is a mirage against weaker defences, or Juventus finally get stretched.
The corner flag
Juventus 9.7 corners won and 2.0 conceded per Serie A game; Sassuolo 5.0 and 5.4 across five competitive matches. With Bremer and Kelly arriving, set pieces are the most likely route to the second goal.
Berardi against a patched-up left
Berardi came back for the Torino win and takes the right flank. Cambiaso is a doubt at left-back, which would push Çelik across, and Sassuolo have scored in all five matches this season for a reason.
08Three duels
Domenico Berardi
Sassuolo · RW
Back since the Torino win and the one Sassuolo player who can beat this defence on his own.
Nemanja Matic
Sassuolo · CM
Screens a back four that has conceded 1.20 goals a game; his positioning decides whether Kolo Muani gets service.
Randal Kolo Muani
Juventus · ST
Leads a front line without Yildiz. Juventus have scored 1.33 a game and need him to convert the few clear ones.
Douglas Luiz
Juventus · CM
Inherits Locatelli's job. Juventus have averaged 18.3 shots a match in the league on the back of that control.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 59%chanceMost likely
Juventus keep it tidy and win it late-ish
Juventus take the ball, Sassuolo press in bursts and foul when they lose it. The visitors turn 9.7 corners a game into a set-piece goal, add one from open play, and see out a match against a side they have beaten five times in eight. Two or three goals, the away side ahead.
- 24%chance
Sassuolo score first and hold on for a point
Sassuolo have scored in all five competitive matches and led at half-time in one of three league games. Berardi finds a corner of the box, Juventus need 18 shots to find the equaliser and a patched-up midfield runs out of ideas. A 1-1 that fits the 24% the market gives the draw.
- 17%chance
The Mapei repeats 2023
Sassuolo have beaten Juventus twice in the last eight meetings, including 4-2 here. Juventus arrive with eight players hurt, Volpato's replacement runs at a makeshift left side, and a 2.06 xG per game home team gets its finishing day. It is the 17% and it is not nothing.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Juventus arrive with half a treatment room and still concede once every three matches. Sassuolo will have the shots and the noise; the visitors will have the clean sheet, or something close to it.
10The verdict
Juventus win it without much fuss
The market makes Juventus 59%, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 17%, and we follow the favourite. The injury list is long enough to tempt you the other way, but it is the wrong list: Locatelli, Yildiz, Thuram and Boga are midfield and attacking players, while the number carrying the price is a defence that has conceded one goal in three Serie A matches with two clean sheets and 0.33 xG against per game. Sassuolo have scored in all five competitive matches, so the home side is live for one, but they have also kept a single clean sheet in five and their three league games all went past 2.5 goals against Bologna, Torino and Atalanta rather than against this back four. Two or three goals, the away side in front of them: over 1.5 at just under 75% and under 3.5 at 69% are the honest boundaries.
What would change our mind
- If Cambiaso and McKennie are both ruled out, trim the handicap lean and stay with the plain result call.
- If Volpato is passed fit, Sassuolo's chance of scoring rises and the clean-sheet edge of the handicap goes.
- If a whistle-happy referee is appointed on Friday, the cards lean gets stronger, not the result one.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- Juventus. Stripped of margin, the market makes them a 59% chance at 1.60, with the draw 24% and Sassuolo 17% at 5.53. Juventus are sixth with seven points from three matches (W2 D1 L0); Sassuolo are tenth with four from three (W1 D1 L1).
- What is the predicted score for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
- We predict Sassuolo 0-2 Juventus. Juventus have conceded one goal in three Serie A matches with two clean sheets and 0.33 expected goals against per game, and none of their three matches this season has gone past 2.5 goals.
- Which players are out for Juventus?
- Juventus are without Manuel Locatelli (external meniscus surgery, not expected back in 2026), Kenan Yildiz (foot surgery, due early December), Khephren Thuram (knee, early 2027), Juan Cabal and Jérémie Boga. Andrea Cambiaso and Weston McKennie are doubts: eight injuries in three weeks.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Juventus?
- In the last eight competitive meetings Juventus have won five, Sassuolo two and one was drawn, at 3.00 goals a meeting with over 2.5 in six of the eight. Juventus won the most recent visit to Reggio Emilia 0-3 in January 2026.
- How many goals should Sassuolo vs Juventus produce?
- Two or three. Over 1.5 goals is fair at just under 75% and under 3.5 at 69%. Sassuolo have scored in all five competitive matches this season, while Juventus have conceded 0.33 goals a game. The Serie A average is 2.73 goals across 30 matches.
Written 9 Sept 2026, 01:50 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 01:50 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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