Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

José Mourinho's first month in charge at the Bernabéu looked flawless until last Friday. Real Madrid took nine points from four league matches (W3 D0 L1), scored ten and conceded three, and then lost 1-0 to Real Betis in Seville. Mourinho's own verdict afterwards was that sometimes you lose without knowing why. They sit third, with a goal difference of plus seven.

Rayo Vallecano are thirteenth on four points from four (W1 D1 L2), goal difference minus three. They beat Racing Santander 3-2 at home last Saturday and finished the match with two players sent off, which is why Jorge de Frutos and Fran Pérez are both suspended here. Isi Palazón has been out with a muscle problem since late August. Beñat San José has to rebuild a front line around Sergio Camello, who already has five goals in four appearances.

The calendar cuts the other way. Rayo have had a full week since Saturday. Madrid host Inter in the Champions League on Tuesday and turn around in four days, and Mourinho has already shown he will change a team. Rayo's route into this is heavy Madrid legs, a low block, and the 0-0 they took off them in Vallecas last November.

Real Madrid have scored 2.50 goals per La Liga match this season and conceded 0.75, from four matches. At home they have played twice and won twice, 4-1 against Real Sociedad and 4-0 against Málaga, an aggregate of 8-1. Their expected goals across those four league matches run 2.82 for and 0.78 against, so this is not a finishing streak dressed up as control.

Rayo are the mirror image. Seven scored and ten conceded in four league matches, 1.13 expected goals created and 2.31 allowed. Both teams have scored in every one of the four. Away from home they have lost twice, 1-2 at Sevilla and 2-5 at Barcelona, conceding 3.50 goals per away match.

Then the team news bends it further. Camello leads the line alone, and the two players who supplied him most are unavailable: De Frutos suspended, Isi Palazón injured. Over 2.5 goals at 1.29 is the natural shape of the evening. The honest question is not whether Madrid score enough, but whether Rayo get the one goal that has come in every league match so far.

No referee has been appointed yet, so this is an argument from team profiles. Rayo's four La Liga matches have produced 5.0 cards each and Rayo take 2.8 of them. Madrid's four have also produced 5.0, but Madrid collect only 1.8 and their opponents collect 3.2. The league average is 4.79 cards per match.

That asymmetry is a style fact, not an accident. Rayo commit 13.92 fouls per game on the weighted season averages against Madrid's 9.71, and Madrid hold 59% of the ball to Rayo's 50%. A side chasing possession at the Bernabéu with a patched-up attack fouls more, not less. Over 3.5 cards has landed in three of Madrid's four league matches and two of Rayo's, and 62% of matches in this league have gone over it.

Madrid win 7.8 corners per La Liga match and concede 4.8. Rayo win 6.2 and concede 5.8. The totals in their matches are 12.5 and 12.0 respectively, against a league average of 9.95, and both sides have gone over 9.5 in three of their four.

The mechanism is plain. Madrid take 20.0 shots per league match, Rayo face 15.8, and a blocked shot at the edge of a packed box is a corner. Over 9.5 at 1.35 already prices that in. The line worth taking is one higher.