vs
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Sun 13 Sept · 15:30Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Powered by statistical analytics hubProBettingHub · PRO Analytics hub for everyoneRB LeipzigHomeHamburger SVAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- RB Leipzig, and by more than one goal. Hamburger SV have not scored in either Bundesliga match and have conceded seven.
- The one stat
- Hamburger SV: 0 goals scored, 7 conceded in 2 Bundesliga matches. Leipzig won their only home match 3-0 from 3.96 expected goals.
- The risk
- Leipzig open their Champions League campaign at Como on Thursday night, three days before this, after losing 3-1 at Werder Bremen.
- The calls
- Safer: RB Leipzig to win at 1.40. Bolder: RB Leipzig -3 on the handicap at 6.45. Five more leans on the board.
The situation
Any RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV prediction starts with one ledger: seven goals conceded, none scored. That is Hamburger SV after two matchdays, beaten 0-2 at Borussia Dortmund and then taken apart 0-5 at home by FSV Mainz 05. They are 18th, in the relegation zone, with 0 points from two matches (W0 D0 L2) and a goal difference of -7. Merlin Polzin took the blame for four changes that did not work, and captain Nicolai Remberg said a squad full of new arrivals still has to find itself.
Leipzig are eighth on 3 points from two matches (W1 D0 L1), and the two halves of that record could not look less alike. At home they dismantled Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 from 3.96 expected goals. Away at Werder Bremen they lost 3-1 and were called out for it inside the club: sporting director Marcel Schäfer described the defeat as a real wake-up call that perhaps came at the right time, and David Raum asked for the right lessons, quickly.
Martín Demichelis, in his first season after replacing Ole Werner, has a crowded week. Leipzig open the Champions League league phase at Como on Thursday night and are home again on Sunday afternoon. Christopher Nkunku is back at the club on loan from Milan and walks into a front line missing Rômulo and Christoph Baumgartner; Castello Lukeba and Brajan Gruda are racing to be fit. Hamburger SV, by contrast, have had seven clear days to fix a defence that has leaked at a rate of 3.50 goals per Bundesliga match.
The markets
Match result
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV have 0 points from two matches with no goals scored and seven conceded; Leipzig won their only home match 3-0 and have taken six of the eight competitive meetings on record.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Handicap
RB Leipzig -3
Hamburger SV shipped five at home to FSV Mainz 05 last weekend and have conceded 3.50 goals per Bundesliga match; Leipzig have already won 6-0 and 3-0 this season.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Result & goals
Asian handicap
RB Leipzig -1.25Price 1.82
3/5Leipzig average 3.33 goals per match this season against a side conceding 3.50 per Bundesliga match, and their only home outing finished 3-0.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Both teams to score
NoPrice 2.23
3/5Both teams have scored in none of Hamburger SV's three competitive matches this season, and they have failed to score in two of them, including both Bundesliga games.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Total goals
Over 2.5Price 1.42
3/5Leipzig have passed 2.5 goals in all three competitive matches this season and the league runs at 3.94 goals per match with 78% going over.
EvidenceGoals table
Match result
RB Leipzig1st halfPrice 1.79
3/5Hamburger SV trailed 0-2 at the break in both Bundesliga matches, while Leipzig led at half-time in two of their three competitive matches.
EvidenceGoals table
Corners
Total corners
Over 9.5Price 1.72
3/5Leipzig have won 8.3 corners per match this season from 24.0 shots, and the league passes 9.5 corners in 67% of matches.
EvidenceCorners and shots
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 15:30 Leipzig time
- Sunday
- Venue
- Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Rest
- 3 days vs 7
- Leipzig play at Como on Thursday night
- Weather
- Around 24 °C, scattered cloud
- Moderate south-westerly wind; five-day forecast
- Table
- 8th vs 18th
- 3 points vs 0 from two matches
- Coaches
- Martín Demichelis vs Merlin Polzin
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, what the head-to-head says, and why the corner count leans one way.
01Goals
Scope first. Both sides have played two Bundesliga matches and one cup tie this season, so the league sample is too thin to stand alone and the three-match competitive line does the work below. It flatters Hamburger SV: their only goals came in a 3-0 cup win at Verl. In the Bundesliga they have 0 goals from two matches and have conceded 3.50 per match.
Leipzig's competitive numbers this season read 10 goals scored in three matches, 3.33 per match, and three conceded. They have gone over 2.5 goals in all three and failed to score in none. The home evidence is one match, but it is emphatic: 3-0, a clean sheet and 3.96 expected goals against Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 25 shots. Against that, Hamburger SV have managed 8.3 shots per match and 1.00 goal.
That points at a Leipzig win with room to spare rather than a shoot-out. Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in none of their three competitive matches this season, and they have failed to score in two of them. The league average is 3.94 goals per match and 78% of matches passing 2.5, so goals are cheap in this division; here we expect them to arrive at one end.
Hamburger SV have failed to score in 2 of 3 competitive matches this season; Leipzig have scored in all three, 10 goals in total.
Sample: This season, 3 competitive matches each (Bundesliga sample only 2); splits from 1 home, 2 away
| Metric | RB LeipzigHome | Hamburger SVAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 3.333.0 at home | 1.01.5 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00.0 at home | 2.331.0 away |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Leipzig have won six of the eight competitive meetings on record, at 3.12 goals per meeting, with both sides scoring in only four.
6
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
1 Mar 2026·Bundesliga
Hamburger SV1–2RB Leipzig18 Oct 2025·Bundesliga
RB Leipzig2–1Hamburger SV18 Oct 2022·DFB Pokal
RB Leipzig4–0Hamburger SV23 Apr 2019·DFB Pokal
Hamburger SV1–3RB Leipzig27 Jan 2018·Bundesliga
RB Leipzig1–1Hamburger SV8 Sept 2017·Bundesliga
Hamburger SV0–2RB Leipzig11 Feb 2017·Bundesliga
RB Leipzig0–3Hamburger SV17 Sept 2016·Bundesliga
Hamburger SV0–4RB Leipzig
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Match result
RB LeipzigSafer
Price 1.404/5Asian handicap
RB Leipzig -1.25
Price 1.823/5Both teams to score
No
Price 2.233/5Total goals
Over 2.5
Price 1.423/5Match result
RB Leipzig1st half
Price 1.793/5Handicap
RB Leipzig -3Riskier
Price 6.452/5
02Corners
The corner count follows the shot count, and the shot count here is lopsided. Leipzig have taken 24.0 shots per match across their three competitive matches this season and won 8.3 corners; Hamburger SV have taken 8.3 shots and won 2.0. Leipzig's matches have produced 11.7 corners in total, Hamburger SV's only 5.3.
Those two lines pull against each other, which is why the total sits close to the line rather than through it. The tie-breaker is territory: a side that defends deep for an hour concedes corners, and Polzin has already said his team will have to defend a great deal at the Red Bull Arena. The league runs at 11.39 corners per match with 67% of matches going past 9.5.
Leipzig average 8.3 corners and 24.0 shots per match this season; Hamburger SV 2.0 corners and 8.3 shots.
Sample: This season, 3 competitive matches each; the Bundesliga sample is only 2
| Metric | RB LeipzigHome | Hamburger SVAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for per game | 8.3 | 2.0 |
| Corners against per game | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Total corners per match | 11.7 | 5.3 |
| Shots for per game | 24.0 | 8.3 |
| Shots against per game | 11.3 | 16.7 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Over 9.5
Price 1.723/5
03The numbers that matter
- 7
- goals conceded by Hamburger SV in two matches
- Both Bundesliga matches finished without a Hamburger SV goal: 0-2 at Borussia Dortmund, 0-5 at home to FSV Mainz 05.
- 3.96
- Leipzig expected goals in their only home match
- That was the 3-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach, from 25 shots and with 1.09 expected goals conceded.
- 6 of 8
- competitive meetings won by Leipzig
- Hamburger SV have won one of the eight on record, and six of them passed 2.5 goals at 3.12 goals per meeting.
- 3 days
- Leipzig rest after their trip to Italy
- Leipzig play at Como on Thursday night; Hamburger SV have had a full week since Sunday's home defeat.
One caution on the sample size. Two Bundesliga matches each is a small window, and both sides padded it with a cup tie against lower-division opposition, Leipzig at Eintracht Trier and Hamburger SV at Verl. The direction of travel is still clear: Leipzig's rating of 70% in league play sits far above Hamburger SV's 31%, and the Elo gap is 140 points in Leipzig's favour before home advantage.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Leipzig are missing a striker and a centre-back but gained a familiar face; Hamburger SV get their midfield anchor back.
04Team news
Leipzig are without five and have two doubts; Hamburger SV expect Albert Sambi Lokonga back after the back problem that cost them their anchor.
RB LeipzigHome
Castello LukebaCB
knock, missed the Bremen match
ResultGoals
DoubtfulChristoph BaumgartnerAM
thigh, back to light running
Goals
OutRocco ReitzCM
thigh, out for several weeks
Goals
OutRômuloFW
knee
Goals
OutBrajan GrudaAM
ankle
Goals
DoubtfulAssan OuédraogoMF
shoulder
Goals
OutViggo GebelMF
knee, long-term
Goals
Out
Hamburger SVAway
Albert Sambi LokongaDM
back problem, returned to training in midweek
ResultGoals
DoubtfulMiro MuheimLB
paused again after returning to training
Result
OutWarmed OmariCB
shoulder, avoided surgery
Goals
DoubtfulAlexander Røssing-Lelesiit
syndesmosis injury
Result
OutFernando Dickes
shoulder, long-term
Result
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Compiled from German club and national reporting in the week of the match.
05Expected XI
Both coaches look likely to keep the shape that started last weekend: Leipzig 4-3-3 with Nkunku central, Hamburger SV a back three.
RB LeipzigHome
Martín Demichelis
Hamburger SVAway
Merlin Polzin
Goalkeeper first, then each line left to right. Leipzig may freshen the XI after Thursday night in Italy.
06Shape and plan
Volume against a low block
Leipzig have averaged 24.0 shots per match this season and 56% possession across the weighted season figures. Hamburger SV have faced 16.7 shots per match. Polzin has already said his side will have to defend a great deal, so the question is not whether Leipzig arrive in the box but how quickly the first goal lands.
A back three that keeps changing
Bornauw, Capaldo and Torunarigha were picked apart by Mainz, and Torunarigha was withdrawn at half-time as a sporting decision. Warmed Omari's shoulder and Miro Muheim's setback leave Polzin short of alternatives, and a rebuilt back line has now conceded seven in 180 league minutes.
Wing-backs pinned
David Møller Wolfe and Zakaria El Ouahdi were both handed the wing-back roles only last week. They meet Antonio Nusa and Johan Bakayoko, Leipzig's two most direct wide players, and every yard they lose feeds the corner count that Leipzig have already been winning at 8.3 per match.
Leipzig's Thursday
Leipzig play at Como in the Champions League on Thursday night and kick off here at 15:30 on Sunday. Demichelis has cover in wide areas but not through the middle, with Rômulo and Baumgartner out, so Nkunku's minutes in Italy are the thing to watch.
07Three duels
Christopher Nkunku
RB Leipzig · FW
Back at Leipzig on loan from Milan and straight into a front line short of Rômulo and Christoph Baumgartner.
Antonio Nusa
RB Leipzig · LW
One of Leipzig's most-used starters, and he attacks the flank Hamburger SV have reshuffled twice in two matchdays.
Johan Bakayoko
RB Leipzig · RW
With the other attackers unavailable he has become central to how Leipzig create; he starts on the right of the front three.
Nicolai Remberg
Hamburger SV · MF
The captain, and the man who has to hold a midfield that has conceded seven goals in two league matches.
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Hamburger SV · DM
His late withdrawal before the Mainz match cost Hamburger SV their screen; his replacement was taken off at half-time.
Yussuf Poulsen
Hamburger SV · FW
Joined Hamburger SV from Leipzig in July 2025 and returns to the Red Bull Arena, most likely from the bench.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
08How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 50%chanceMost likely
Leipzig turn the screw early
Leipzig pin Hamburger SV in and score before half-time, as Dortmund and Mainz both did. The visitors, already 0-7 in the league, have no route back: they have taken 8.3 shots per match this season. It finishes 3-0 or 4-0, with a corner count in double figures.
- 30%chance
Hamburger SV survive an hour
Polzin gets the back three organised, Lokonga screens in front of it and Hamburger SV reach the break level, as they never have this season in the league. Leipzig, three days after Como, take until the second half to break through and win 1-0 or 2-0 with the goals late.
- 20%chance
Tired legs, open match
Leipzig arrive heavy from Italy, concede a first Hamburger SV goal of the season and turn it into the kind of match they lost 3-1 at Bremen. Both sides score, the total goes past 3.5 and the visitors leave with a point they could not have argued for on the numbers.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Hamburger SV have played 180 Bundesliga minutes without scoring and conceded seven. Leipzig won their only home match 3-0 from 3.96 expected goals. One of those runs ends on Sunday, and it is not the home one.
09The verdict
Leipzig by two or more against a defence that has conceded seven
Everything points one way. Hamburger SV are 18th with 0 points from two matches, no goals scored and 3.50 conceded per Bundesliga match, and their only goals this season came in a cup tie at Verl. Leipzig are eighth, won their single home match 3-0 from 3.96 expected goals and have gone past 2.5 goals in all three competitive matches. The Elo gap is 140 points before home advantage, and Leipzig have won six of the eight competitive meetings on record. The one hesitation is Thursday night in Como and a squad that is short through the middle, which is why we stop at a two-goal margin rather than reaching for the biggest handicap. 3-0.
What would change our mind
- If Castello Lukeba is passed fit, the clean-sheet case gets stronger.
- If Nkunku and Nusa play heavy minutes at Como, drop from the handicap to the plain home win.
- If Hamburger SV score first, the corners lean is the one that survives.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- RB Leipzig, priced at 1.40 against 6.92 for Hamburger SV and 5.03 for the draw. Leipzig sit eighth with 3 points from two matches (W1 D0 L1); Hamburger SV are 18th with 0 points from two (W0 D0 L2), no goals scored and seven conceded.
- What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
- We expect RB Leipzig 3-0 Hamburger SV. Leipzig beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 in their only home match of the season from 3.96 expected goals, while Hamburger SV lost 0-2 at Borussia Dortmund and 0-5 at home to FSV Mainz 05.
- What is the head-to-head record?
- In the eight competitive meetings on record RB Leipzig have won six, Hamburger SV one, with one draw, at 3.12 goals per meeting and over 2.5 goals in six of the eight. Leipzig won both 2025/26 league meetings, 2-1 at home and 2-1 in Hamburg.
- Who is missing for RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV?
- Leipzig are without five: Christoph Baumgartner, Rocco Reitz, Rômulo, Assan Ouédraogo and Viggo Gebel, with Castello Lukeba and Brajan Gruda 2 doubts. Hamburger SV expect Albert Sambi Lokonga back from a back problem, while Miro Muheim is out and Warmed Omari doubtful in a back line that has conceded 7 goals in 2 Bundesliga matches.
- Does the schedule favour either side?
- Hamburger SV have had a full week since their 0-5 loss to FSV Mainz 05 on Sunday. Leipzig open their Champions League campaign at Como on Thursday night and return with three days to prepare, so Martín Demichelis may freshen the XI.
Written 9 Sept 2026, 01:05 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 01:30 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
More previews
vs
Superliga · Round 7
FC Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland
Second hosts third in Herning with a point between them: Midtjylland unbeaten in nine, Nordsjaelland scoring far less than their chances deserve.
vs
Serie A · Round 3
Udinese vs Lazio
Two 1-0 wins and two goals scored: Lazio arrive in Udine giving nothing away, into a fixture they have not won in five attempts.
vs
La Liga · Round 4
Elche vs Real Sociedad
Elche have conceded nine in three and sold their best centre-back. Real Sociedad have won seven of eight meetings and still cannot score.