Paris Saint Germain vs Slovan Bratislava

Paris Saint Germain are back-to-back European champions and they have started the season like a side that has not been told. Five competitive matches, one win: W1 D2 L2, 1.00 points per game, seven scored and eight conceded. They led Monaco at half-time on Saturday and lost 2-1 at home. They have conceded in all five and kept no clean sheet. Winless in four is not a crisis at this club, but it is a fact.

Slovan Bratislava arrive with a story of their own. Yaya Touré took over in June and became the first African coach to steer a team into the Champions League league phase, going through Saburtalo, Mjällby and Celje. In this competition they are unbeaten in six: W4 D2, ten scored, four conceded, and never once behind at half-time. Domestically the wheels have wobbled, with a home defeat to Zemplín Michalovce and a 2-0 loss at Dunajská Streda on Saturday.

The prices leave no room for romance: Paris 1.04, the draw 17.58, Slovan 35.96, with 149 Elo points between them. So the questions worth arguing are narrower. Can Paris, who have not won a competitive match by more than one goal this season, cover a big handicap? And can a defence with no clean sheets in five keep out a side that has failed to score once in 13?

Paris create plenty and give plenty back. Across five competitive matches this season they have scored 1.40 per game and conceded 1.60, with both teams scoring in four of the five and four of the five going over 2.5 goals. The shot counts say the process is fine: 18.8 attempts per match for, 9.0 against. The scoreline says the finishing and the last line are not.

Slovan are the opposite shape. Thirteen competitive matches, 2.54 goals per game scored and 0.69 conceded, six clean sheets. Strip out the domestic cup rout and the Champions League record still holds up: six ties, ten scored, four conceded, 0.67 against per game. Only two of those six passed 2.5 goals, because Slovan are happy to sit and make an evening long.

That is the tension. The overall total should be high because Paris games are high; the winning margin should be modest because Paris have not managed a two-goal win all season and Slovan concede at a rate no opponent has broken. A 2-1 or 3-1 fits both truths better than a 4-0.

This is the chapter the mismatch actually helps. Slovan's three Champions League matches with card data this season have averaged 5.3 cards between the sides, and all three cleared 3.5. They foul 13.11 times per game in weighted season averages, against 8.57 for Paris, because chasing the ball for an hour has a price.

The referee does not soften it. Mykola Balakin is a strict official by any measure, and a team defending a deep block against 68 per cent possession will spend the night making tactical fouls in midfield. Paris themselves are not clean: four cards in the Trophée des Champions defeat at Lens, including a red.

The instinct with a 1.04 favourite at home is to buy corners. The counting says be careful. Paris have won 5.4 corners per game this season and conceded 0.8, and only one of their five competitive matches has passed 9.5 in total. They shoot early and often rather than working the ball into the corner: 23 attempts against Monaco produced six flag kicks, and the Super Cup win over Aston Villa produced none at all.

Slovan add a little from the other end, but not much. Their three Champions League matches with data averaged 7.7 corners in total, 4.7 for and 3.0 against, and only one of the three cleared 9.5. Two low-corner profiles rarely add up to a high-corner night.