vs
Napoli vs Bologna
Sun 13 Sept · 18:00Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
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In short
In short
- The call
- Napoli. The market makes them 55%, the draw 26%, Bologna 19%, and nothing this week argues for leaving the favourite.
- The one stat
- Bologna have scored twice in three Serie A matches and failed to score in two of them.
- The risk
- Napoli host a European tie on Wednesday. Three days later, without McTominay and Anguissa, the XI may be a patched one.
- The calls
- Safer: Napoli or draw at 1.17. Riskier: Napoli -1 at 2.35. Six more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Napoli vs Bologna prediction has to start with a table neither club planned for. Napoli are 12th with three points from three matches (W1 D0 L2), beaten at home by Como and then 3-2 at Inter. Bologna are 15th with one point from three (W0 D1 L2), and two of those three finished without a Bologna goal.
Massimiliano Allegri's first month has been about absences. Scott McTominay had a minor cardiac procedure in London on Monday and needs a 28-day rehabilitation programme. André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, who started at Inter, has an adductor problem. Alessandro Buongiorno is a long-term absentee, left out of the European squad list. And Napoli host Arsenal on Wednesday night, three days before this kick-off.
Bologna's week was bad in a different way. Riccardo Orsolini tore a flexor in his left thigh at Atalanta and is out until the international break. Domenico Tedesco was sent off in stoppage time of Sunday's 2-2 with Sassuolo and was given a two-match ban, so he watches this one from the stands while the club appeals. What Bologna do have is the better underlying profile: 1.57 xG created and 0.80 conceded per Serie A match, and one point to show for it.
The markets
Double chance
Napoli or draw
Fair probability 81%. Bologna have scored 0.67 goals per Serie A match, failed to score in two of three and have not led for a minute this season, all without Orsolini.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Asian handicap
Napoli -1
Fair probability 40%. The same call at a longer price, needing a two-goal win: Napoli score 1.67 per Serie A match, Bologna concede 1.33 and have managed two goals all season.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Result & goals
Match result
NapoliPrice 1.72
3/5Fair probability 55%, and we stay with the favourite: Napoli make 1.53 xG per Serie A match against a side that has taken one point from three and lost its first-choice right winger.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Total goals
Under 2.5Price 1.74
3/5Fair probability 55%. Two of Bologna's three Serie A matches have finished with two goals or fewer, on 0.67 scored and 0.80 xG conceded per match.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Both teams to score
NoPrice 1.76
3/5Fair probability 53%. Bologna failed to score in two of three Serie A matches and are without Orsolini; both teams scored in only three of the last eight meetings.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
1st-half goals
Under 1.5Price 1.36
4/5Fair probability 69%. Their six Serie A matches this season have produced four first-half goals between them, and Bologna have not scored in a first half at all.
EvidenceGoals table
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5
3/5Bologna's three Serie A matches have averaged 4.3 cards against a 3.33 league average and cleared 3.5 in two of three; no referee is appointed yet, which is why this is not higher.
EvidenceDiscipline
Corners
Total corners
Over 9.5Price 2.00
3/5Fair probability 47% and we make it more: both sides' Serie A matches have averaged 11.3 corners against a 9.20 league average, with Napoli conceding 7.3 a match and Bologna winning 6.7.
EvidenceCorners
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 18:00 Naples time
- Sunday
- Rest
- 3 days vs 7
- Napoli host a European tie on Wednesday
- Weather
- 27 °C, clear
- Dry forecast, no rain expected
- Bologna dugout
- Coach banned
- Tedesco serving a two-match suspension; the club is appealing
- Napoli midfield
- Two out
- McTominay after surgery, Anguissa with an adductor problem
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals line reads under, why the corner count reads over, and what three matches of evidence can and cannot tell us.
01Goals
Strip the margin out of the three-way price and the market makes Napoli 55%, the draw 26% and Bologna 19%. Three matches of this season do not contradict it. Napoli have scored 1.67 goals per Serie A match and conceded 1.67; Bologna have scored 0.67 and failed to score in two of three.
Bologna's problem is not creation. They have made 1.57 xG per Serie A match, marginally more than Napoli's 1.53, and conceded only 0.80. They have turned 4.7 xG into two goals in three matches, and they have not led for a single minute this season. Without Orsolini, the man who carried the right wing, that finishing problem does not obviously fix itself at the Maradona.
So the goals side reads down rather than up. Under 2.5 is a fair 55% at 1.74; both teams to score, No is 53% at 1.76. First halves have been quieter still: their six Serie A matches this season have produced four first-half goals between them, and Bologna have not scored in one.
Bologna have created more than Napoli per match (1.57 xG to 1.53) and scored 0.67 goals a game to Napoli's 1.67.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
| Metric | NapoliHome | BolognaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| xG created per game | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| xG conceded per game | 1.86 | 0.8 |
| First-half goals scored per game | 0.33 | 0.0 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Bologna have out-created their opponent in all three Serie A matches and taken one point; Napoli were out-shot 3.86 to 2.43 at Inter.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
NapoliHome
avg xG 1.53 · avg xGA 1.86
0–2W
Genoa (A)
1–2L
Como (H)
3–2L
Inter (A)
BolognaAway
avg xG 1.57 · avg xGA 0.80
0–1L
Lazio (H)
1–0L
Atalanta (A)
2–2D
Sassuolo (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Bologna have won three of the last eight competitive meetings to Napoli's two, including 3-2 at the Maradona in May; 2.50 goals per meeting and both teams scored in only three of the eight.
2
Napoli
3
Draws
3
Bologna
11 May 2026·Serie A
Napoli2–3Bologna22 Dec 2025·Super Cup
Napoli2–0Bologna9 Nov 2025·Serie A
Bologna2–0Napoli7 Apr 2025·Serie A
Bologna1–1Napoli25 Aug 2024·Serie A
Napoli3–0Bologna11 May 2024·Serie A
Napoli0–2Bologna24 Sept 2023·Serie A
Bologna0–0Napoli28 May 2023·Serie A
Bologna2–2Napoli
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Napoli or drawSafer
Price 1.175/5Match result
Napoli
Price 1.723/5Asian handicap
Napoli -1Riskier
Price 2.352/5Total goals
Under 2.5
Price 1.743/5Both teams to score
No
Price 1.763/51st-half goals
Under 1.5
Price 1.364/5
02Cards
No referee has been appointed yet, which caps how far this argument can go. What the season gives us is a clean split. Napoli's three Serie A matches have averaged 2.3 cards; Bologna's have averaged 4.3, against a league average of 3.33.
The behaviour behind it is Bologna's. They collect 2.3 yellows a match themselves to Napoli's 1.3, they foul more on weighted season averages (12.36 per match to 9.30), and they have gone past 3.5 total cards in two of three matches while Napoli have not done it once. A side chasing a match with its coach in the stands is not the profile that tightens up.
Bologna's matches have averaged 4.3 cards to Napoli's 2.3, against a Serie A average of 3.33 per match.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
| Metric | NapoliHome | BolognaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Total cards in their matches | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 0% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
3/5
03Corners
Corners are the one place where our number sits above the price. Both sides' Serie A matches have produced 11.3 corners per match against a league average of 9.20, and both have gone over 9.5 in two of three.
The mechanism is specific rather than general. Napoli concede 7.3 corners a match, by some distance the worst of their defensive numbers, and have won only 4.0 themselves. Bologna win 6.7 and concede 4.7. A Bologna side that shoots 17.0 times a match and finishes nothing is exactly the side that piles up corners at the far end.
Both sides' Serie A matches have averaged 11.3 corners, more than two above the 9.20 league average.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
| Metric | NapoliHome | BolognaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 4.0 | 6.7 |
| Corners conceded per game | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| Total corners in their matches | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 67% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Over 9.5
Price 2.003/5
04The numbers that matter
- 11.3
- corners per match in both sides' games
- The Serie A average is 9.20, and both teams have cleared 9.5 in two of their three matches.
- 0.67
- Bologna goals per Serie A match
- Two goals in three matches, from 4.7 xG, and none of them arrived while Bologna were in front.
- 3
- days between Napoli's European tie and this
- Allegri rotates from a squad already missing McTominay, Anguissa and Buongiorno.
Three matches is three matches. Every rate above comes from a sample small enough that one open, chaotic game would move it, which is why the leans sit close to the market rather than far from it.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Napoli have lost two of their three first-choice midfielders; Bologna have lost their right winger and their coach.
05Team news
Napoli are without McTominay and Anguissa in central midfield; Bologna are without Orsolini until the international break.
NapoliHome
Scott McTominayCM
cardiac procedure, 28-day rehabilitation
GoalsResult
OutAndré-Frank Zambo AnguissaCM
adductor
Result
OutAlessandro BuongiornoCB
knee, long-term
Goals
OutDavid NeresRW
knee
Goals
DoubtfulGiovaneFW
hernia
OutLuca MarianucciCB
injury
Out
BolognaAway
Riccardo OrsoliniRW
left thigh flexor, out until the international break
GoalsResult
OutNiccolò CasaleCB
adductor
Goals
OutOussama El AzzouziCM
hamstring
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and national reporting to Wednesday morning. Napoli's European tie that night can still change this list.
06Expected XI
Allegri's 4-3-3 needs a rebuilt midfield: De Bruyne and Vergara either side of Lobotka, with Højlund alone up front.
NapoliHome
Massimiliano Allegri
BolognaAway
Domenico Tedesco
Projected from each side's most recent league XI and the confirmed absences; Tedesco names the Bologna team but serves his ban away from the touchline.
07Shape and plan
The midfield Napoli have left
McTominay's runs from deep produced Napoli's cheapest goals, and Anguissa covered the ground behind them. Both are out. Lobotka holds, De Bruyne plays the passes and Vergara does the running, which is a lovely first hour and a heavy last thirty minutes three days after a European night.
Bologna's right side without Orsolini
Bernardeschi shifts across to cover the right wing, as he did against Sassuolo. That is a straight downgrade in one-versus-one threat against Spinazzola, and it pushes more of Bologna's creation through Odgaard and Cambiaghi on the other flank, where Di Lorenzo is the more disciplined defender.
The corner count is the real market
Napoli concede 7.3 corners per Serie A match while winning 4.0. Bologna shoot 17.0 times a match and score 0.67 goals. The natural shape of this game, Napoli ahead and Bologna throwing bodies forward, is exactly the one that pushes the total corner count past the 9.5 line.
08Three duels
Rasmus Højlund
Napoli · ST
With McTominay gone, Napoli's goals have to come from the front. He has scored two of their five.
2 goals in 3 Serie A matches
Kevin De Bruyne
Napoli · CM
Napoli's creation drops sharply when he is not on the pitch; against a deep Bologna block he is the pass that opens it.
3 substitute appearances, no league starts this season
Lewis Ferguson
Bologna · CM
Bologna's captain has to win the second balls that a patched Napoli midfield will spill in the closing half hour.
Roberto Piccoli
Bologna · ST
Carrying a front line that has scored twice all season, with Orsolini's supply removed.
1 of Bologna's 2 Serie A goals this season
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 55%chanceMost likely
Napoli settle it before the hour
De Bruyne finds Højlund early, Bologna's 0.67 goals per match holds up, and Napoli manage the last half hour at walking pace with Skorupski's goal under repeated corners. A 1-0 or 2-0 that keeps the total under 2.5 and the corner count over 9.5.
- 26%chance
Bologna's numbers finally land
The side that has made 1.57 xG a match and conceded 0.80 finally converts one. Napoli, three days after a European night and without two first-choice midfielders, fade after the hour and the game finishes level, most likely 1-1.
- 19%chance
The turnaround catches Napoli
Exactly what happened in May, when Bologna won 3-2 at the Maradona. Tired legs in central midfield, a set piece against, and a Napoli side that has already conceded five in three matches loses a second home game in a month.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Bologna have out-created their opponent in all three Serie A matches and have one point. Napoli have been worse and have three. That gap usually closes - but not at the Maradona, not without Orsolini.
10The verdict
Napoli, without much comfort in it
Fair probabilities from the three-way price are Napoli 55%, the draw 26%, Bologna 19%, and we follow the favourite. The reasons to hesitate are real - McTominay is out for 28 days after a cardiac procedure, Anguissa has an adductor problem, and Napoli play a European tie three days before this - but they cut the margin rather than flip the call, because Bologna arrive with two goals from three Serie A matches, without Riccardo Orsolini and with a coach serving a two-match ban. Napoli have scored 1.67 goals per league match against a Bologna defence conceding 1.33; Bologna have not led for a minute this season. We write down 2-0, keep the total under 2.5, and take the corner count over 9.5 as the best-priced number on the board.
What would change our mind
- If Napoli lose another midfielder on Wednesday, drop to the Napoli or draw cover and leave the handicap alone.
- If De Bruyne starts and finishes Wednesday's tie, expect Gilmour or Lucca in from the start here and less creation, which strengthens under 2.5.
- If Bologna's appeal succeeds and Tedesco takes the touchline, shade the cards lean down.
Quick answers
- Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Bologna?
- Napoli. With the margin stripped out of the three-way price, the market makes Napoli 55%, the draw 26% and Bologna 19%. Napoli sit 12th with three points from three matches, Bologna 15th with one point from three, and Bologna have scored twice in the league all season.
- Is Scott McTominay playing for Napoli against Bologna?
- No. Scott McTominay had a minor cardiac procedure in London and needs a 28-day rehabilitation programme, so he misses this match and is targeted to return in October. Napoli are also without André-Frank Zambo Anguissa (adductor) and Alessandro Buongiorno, which leaves Kevin De Bruyne and Antonio Vergara either side of Stanislav Lobotka.
- What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
- In the last eight competitive meetings Bologna have won three, Napoli two and three were drawn, at 2.50 goals per meeting with both teams scoring in only three of the eight. Bologna won the most recent one 3-2 at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in May 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Bologna?
- Napoli 2-0. Napoli have scored 1.67 goals per Serie A match this season while Bologna have scored 0.67 and failed to score in two of three, so the goals total reads under 2.5 rather than over. Our confidence in the result is 3 out of 5.
- Will Bologna have their coach on the touchline against Napoli?
- No. Domenico Tedesco was sent off in stoppage time of Bologna's 2-2 draw with Sassuolo and was given a two-match ban plus a fine, covering this match and the following one against Torino. Bologna have said they will appeal. He can still pick the team, but he watches from the stands.
Written 9 Sept 2026, 01:50 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 01:50 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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