vs
Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Tue 15 Sept · 19:45Fir Park, Motherwell
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MotherwellHomeAberdeenAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Motherwell to win. They are fifth on 8 points from 5 played; Aberdeen are tenth on 4, with two goals scored all league season.
- The one stat
- Aberdeen have scored 0.40 goals per game in five Premiership matches, and none at all in their two away league trips: 0 for, 5 against.
- The risk
- Motherwell drew two of their five league matches and lost 0-1 at Rangers. A slow night against a deep Aberdeen block is the way this goes wrong.
- The calls
- Safer: Motherwell on the level handicap. Riskier: Motherwell by two or more. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
The Motherwell vs Aberdeen prediction is shaped by two clubs moving in opposite directions. Motherwell sit fifth on 8 points from 5 played (W2 D2 L1), unbeaten in their two home league matches and yet to concede in them, 3 scored and 0 against. Aberdeen are tenth on 4 points from 5 played (W1 D1 L3), goal difference -5, and have scored twice in the league all season.
Aberdeen are in a crisis on any reading. One point from their last four Premiership matches, no goal in any of them, and supporters booing the side off after the goalless home draw with Kilmarnock on 5 September. Stephen Robinson, appointed head coach on 12 March 2026 on a contract to 2029, spent the week saying he has to shut the noise out. The cup gave him something back: 1-1 at Kilmarnock on 12 September with ten men from the 58th minute after Dan Happe's second booking, then a 3-1 shoot-out win and a semi-final place. It also cost 120 minutes and a second long road trip inside a week.
Motherwell have no such problem. Alfred Johansson, appointed on 18 June 2026, has them fifth and ten days clear of their last match, the 0-1 defeat at Rangers on 5 September. Assistant Max Rogers said the break gave the squad its first full week of training of the season, after a summer in which European ties left one-day turnarounds. Their only real worry is a right-back department that injuries have picked apart since August.
The markets
Asian handicap
Motherwell 0
The win with the draw refunded. Motherwell have 3 scored and 0 conceded in two home league matches; Aberdeen have one point from four league games without scoring in any. We make Motherwell 56% against the market's 51%.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-headxG trend
Asian handicap
Motherwell -1
The two-goal win. The last three Premiership meetings at Fir Park all finished 2-0, and Aberdeen have allowed 2.35 expected goals per away match across their last five competitive away games while creating 0.68.
EvidenceHead-to-headxG trendGoals table
Result & goals
Match result
MotherwellPrice 1.82
4/5Aberdeen have scored 0.40 goals per game in five Premiership matches and none in two away trips, 0 for and 5 against. We make Motherwell 56% against the market's 51%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Total goals
Under 3.5Price 1.42
4/5Aberdeen's five Premiership matches have produced nine goals in total and not one cleared 3.5; Motherwell have passed it once in five. We make under 3.5 about 74% against the market's 66%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Both teams to score
NoPrice 2.14
3/5Aberdeen failed to score in four of five Premiership matches and both teams scored in only one; Motherwell have four clean sheets in their last five competitive home matches. We make it about 55% against the market's 43%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendHead-to-head
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5Price 1.62
3/5Aberdeen's five Premiership matches have averaged 6.0 cards and cleared 3.5 in four of them against a league average of 3.76, and they had a man sent off at Kilmarnock on 12 September.
EvidenceDiscipline
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 19:45 Motherwell time
- Tuesday
- Rest
- 10 days vs 3
- Aberdeen played 120 minutes and penalties at Kilmarnock on Saturday
- Weather
- 14 °C, dry
- Breezy, wind around 18 km/h with gusts to 31
- Table
- 5th vs 10th
- 8 points from 5 played against 4 from 5
- Venue
- Fir Park, Motherwell
- Motherwell are unbeaten at home in the league this season
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals are likely to be few and one-sided, why the cards are not, and the numbers that carry the call.
01Goals
Aberdeen's problem is scoring. Five Premiership matches have brought two goals, 0.40 per game, and four blanks. Their two away league trips produced nothing and conceded five. The underlying figures agree: across their last five competitive away matches they created 0.68 expected goals a game and allowed 2.35.
Motherwell are not a heavy-scoring side either, 1.60 per game in five league matches, but at home they have conceded 0.60 a game across their last five competitive home matches, with four clean sheets and 0.32 expected goals against per match. Put a blunt away side in front of that and the shape of the night is a low total with one scorer: the home win, under 3.5 goals and both teams to score 'no' all argue the same case.
Aberdeen have scored 0.40 goals per game in five Premiership matches and none in their two away league trips; Motherwell average 1.60.
Sample: Premiership 2026/27, 5 matches each; splits cover 2 home and 2 away league matches
| Metric | MotherwellHome | AberdeenAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.61.5 at home | 0.40.0 away |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00.0 at home | 1.42.5 away |
| Failed to score | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row. Small numbers are the venue split: the home side at home, the away side away.
Aberdeen have cleared 1.0 expected goals once in five league matches; Motherwell have passed 2.0 three times in the same window.
Sample: Premiership 2026/27, 5 matches each with expected goals
MotherwellHome
avg xG 1.54 · avg xGA 1.75
1–2W
Hibernian (A)
0–0D
Falkirk (H)
3–3D
ST Mirren (A)
3–0W
Dundee Utd (H)
1–0L
Rangers (A)
AberdeenAway
avg xG 1.06 · avg xGA 1.76
2–1W
Heart Of Midlothian (H)
2–0L
Dundee (A)
0–1L
Rangers (H)
3–0L
Celtic (A)
0–0D
Kilmarnock (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Source: Match data from this season's Premiership fixtures
The last three Premiership meetings at Fir Park all finished 2-0 to Motherwell; across the last eight competitive meetings Motherwell won four, Aberdeen three, one drawn, at 2.38 goals per meeting with both sides scoring only three times.
4
Motherwell
1
Draws
3
Aberdeen
18 Feb 2026·FA Cup
Aberdeen2–0Motherwell15 Feb 2026·Premiership
Motherwell2–0Aberdeen9 Nov 2025·Premiership
Aberdeen1–1Motherwell27 Sept 2025·Premiership
Motherwell2–0Aberdeen20 Sept 2025·League Cup
Aberdeen0–1Motherwell29 Mar 2025·Premiership
Aberdeen4–1Motherwell5 Jan 2025·Premiership
Motherwell2–0Aberdeen14 Sept 2024·Premiership
Aberdeen2–1Motherwell
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Asian handicap
Motherwell 0Safer
Price 1.374/5Asian handicap
Motherwell -1Riskier
Price 2.453/5Match result
Motherwell
Price 1.824/5Total goals
Under 3.5
Price 1.424/5Both teams to score
No
Price 2.143/5
02Cards
Aberdeen's matches are the noisiest in the division. Their five Premiership games have averaged 6.0 cards, 3.6 of them their own, and passed 3.5 cards in four of the five; the league runs at 3.76 cards a match and clears 3.5 in 55% of games. They foul more too, 13.43 per game on weighted season averages against Motherwell's 11.78, and they already lost a man to a second booking at Kilmarnock on 12 September.
Motherwell's league games have been calm by comparison, 2.8 cards a match and over 3.5 in three of five. They do not need to be the noisy side. A tiring away team chasing a goal it cannot find is how card counts climb, and no referee had been appointed when this was written, so the lean rests on the two teams rather than the official.
Aberdeen's five Premiership matches have averaged 6.0 cards against a league average of 3.76, and cleared 3.5 in four of the five.
Sample: Premiership 2026/27, 5 matches with statistics for each side
| Metric | MotherwellHome | AberdeenAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| Cards against per game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Cards in the match, both sides | 2.8 | 6.0 |
| Over 3.5 cards | 60% | 80% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
Price 1.623/5
03Corners
Corners are analysis here, not a call. Both sides win 5.0 corners a game in the Premiership, but Aberdeen concede 7.8 against Motherwell's 5.6, and their league matches run to 12.8 corners against a league average of 11.58. Motherwell's run to 10.6, over 9.5 in four of five.
The two pictures pull against each other. An Aberdeen side chasing a goal for the last half hour would push the count up; a home lead established early, which is what the last three meetings at Fir Park produced, would flatten it. That is a coin flip, and the board leaves it alone.
Aberdeen concede 7.8 corners a game in the Premiership against Motherwell's 5.6, and their league matches average 12.8 corners.
Sample: Premiership 2026/27, 5 matches with statistics for each side
| Metric | MotherwellHome | AberdeenAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Corners conceded per game | 5.6 | 7.8 |
| Corners in the match | 10.6 | 12.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 80% | 80% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 0
- Aberdeen away league goals this season
- Two Premiership trips, no goals scored and five conceded. Nothing in the season so far says they will break that here.
- 2-0
- the last three league meetings at Fir Park
- February 2026, September 2025 and January 2025 all finished 2-0 to Motherwell. Pattern, not proof, but it points the same way.
- 6.0
- cards per match in Aberdeen's league games
- Against a league average of 3.76. A tiring side chasing the game is how that number stays high.
- 10 v 3
- days of rest before kick-off
- Motherwell have had a full training week. Aberdeen played 120 minutes plus penalties on Saturday, away from home.
Every rate above is this season only. Where the league sample is five matches, it is five matches: small, but it is what the season has produced, and the away splits are smaller still at two matches a side.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Motherwell have coped with their absences. Aberdeen's one goalscorer is carrying 120 minutes in his legs.
05Team news
Kevin Nisbet has scored 60% of Aberdeen's goals this season and played 120 minutes plus penalties three days ago after a late fitness test.
MotherwellHome
Paul McGinnDF
fitness
Result
DoubtfulJohn KoutroumbisDF
fitness
Result
DoubtfulJordan McGheeDF
fitness
Result
DoubtfulOscar PriestmanMF
fitness
Result
DoubtfulCallum HendryFW
fitness
Goals
DoubtfulApostolos StamatelopoulosFW
left the club on 8 September
Goals
Out
AberdeenAway
Kevin NisbetFW
late fitness test before 120 minutes at Kilmarnock
GoalsResult
DoubtfulBrad LyonsMF
fitness
Result
DoubtfulKristers TobersDF
fitness
Goals
Doubtful
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Build-up reports of 13 and 14 September, plus the club websites. No referee had been appointed at the time of writing.
06Expected XI
Tom Sparrow fills in at right-back in a 4-2-3-1: McGinn, Koutroumbis and McGhee are all doubtful for the same position.
MotherwellHome
Alfred Johansson
Goalkeeper first, then the back four, the two holders and the front four. Aberdeen's XI is left out while the shape behind Dan Happe's dismissal is unsettled.
07Shape and plan
The right-back hole
Motherwell have lost McGinn, Koutroumbis and McGhee to fitness problems since August and have been shuffling midfielders into the position. Aberdeen's most direct route is down that side. The counter-argument is that Motherwell already won 3-0 at home without them, conceding 0.19 expected goals.
Nisbet alone
Aberdeen's captain has scored 60% of their goals this season, and only Falkirk have created fewer clear chances. Motherwell's home record, 0.60 conceded per game and four clean sheets in their last five competitive home matches, is built on not letting one forward turn. Cut the supply and Aberdeen have no second idea.
The last half hour
Aberdeen went 120 minutes plus penalties on Saturday and travel again. Motherwell have had ten days. On weighted season averages Motherwell score 0.73 second-half goals a game to Aberdeen's 0.45, and concede 0.55 to Aberdeen's 0.74. If this is 1-0 at 70 minutes, the second goal is far likelier than the equaliser.
Set pieces and the card count
Aberdeen concede 7.8 corners a game in the league against Motherwell's 5.6 and foul 13.43 times a game on weighted season averages. A side defending a lead it cannot chase back tends to give away both. That is where the cards lean lives, and where Motherwell's second goal may come from.
08Three duels
Alex Lowry
Motherwell · AM
The August player of the month, and the man who links Motherwell's two holders to their front three. He is the one who has to find space against a compact, tired midfield.
August player of the month
Tawanda Maswanhise
Motherwell · FW
Leads the line against a back line that has conceded 2.50 goals per away league match this season. His running in behind is the quickest route to the early goal the pattern of this fixture keeps producing.
Kevin Nisbet
Aberdeen · FW
Aberdeen's captain and, on the evidence of this season, their only finisher. He passed a late fitness test on Saturday and then played two hours. If he is short of sharpness, Aberdeen have nowhere else to go.
60% of Aberdeen's goals this season
Marius Müller
Aberdeen · GK
The busiest goalkeeper on the pitch by some distance. Aberdeen face 18.6 shots a game in the league to Motherwell's 16.8 against, and he is the reason several of those scorelines stayed respectable.
3.77 saves per game, weighted season averages
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 56%chanceMost likely
Motherwell squeeze the life out of it
Aberdeen sit in, Motherwell control the ball at 57% possession on weighted season averages, and the opener comes from a set piece or a run in behind. Aberdeen have to come out and have nothing to come out with. Motherwell add the second late: the 2-0 this fixture keeps producing.
- 25%chance
Another Fir Park stalemate
Aberdeen defend as they did in the 0-0 with Kilmarnock, holding their opponents to 0.93 expected goals. Motherwell, who drew 0-0 with Falkirk at home on 0.89, cannot force the door. Few chances, few goals: the under-3.5 lean survives, the result lean does not.
- 19%chance
Aberdeen nick one
A Motherwell defence missing three right-backs is opened once and Nisbet finishes it. Aberdeen's only away wins this season came in the cup, 4-1 at Queen of the South and 2-0 at Brora Rangers. It needs a goal from a side without one in four league games.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
Aberdeen have scored two goals in five league matches and none on the road. Motherwell have ten days in their legs and have not conceded at home. This is not a night for surprises.
10The verdict
Motherwell by two, and Aberdeen still cannot score
We make it Motherwell 56%, the draw 25%, Aberdeen 19%. The market has 51/25/24, so our gap is a five-point shift from the away side to the home one, inside the range where the facts explain it rather than argue with it. Those facts: Aberdeen have taken one point from four Premiership matches and failed to score in every one, they have no away league goal at all this season from two trips and five conceded, their supporters booed them off on 5 September, and they played 120 minutes plus penalties at Kilmarnock three days ago on the second of three away matches in seven days. Motherwell have had ten days and their first full training week of the season. Neither side is missing a player whose absence has cost it results: Motherwell beat Dundee United 3-0 without McGinn, Koutroumbis and Stamatelopoulos, conceding 0.19 expected goals. Aberdeen's one doubt that matters is Kevin Nisbet, who has scored 60% of their goals and has two hours of football in his legs. The safer call is the level handicap on Motherwell, the win with the draw refunded; the riskier call is the two-goal win that the last three meetings at Fir Park have produced.
What would change our mind
- If Kevin Nisbet does not start, the goals lines tighten further and the level handicap becomes the stronger of the two calls.
- If Motherwell's makeshift right-back is beaten inside the opening half hour, stay with the level handicap and leave the -1 alone.
- If the wind gets up beyond the forecast 18 km/h, tempo drops and under 3.5 goals gets safer still.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- Motherwell. They are fifth on 8 points from 5 played (W2 D2 L1), with 3 scored and 0 conceded in their two home league matches; Aberdeen are tenth on 4 points from 5 played (W1 D1 L3) with a goal difference of -5. We make it Motherwell 56%, the draw 25%, Aberdeen 19%.
- What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- Motherwell 2-0. Aberdeen have scored 0.40 goals per game in five Premiership matches and none in two away league trips; Motherwell have conceded 0.60 a game across their last five competitive home matches, with four clean sheets. The last three Premiership meetings at Fir Park all finished 2-0 to Motherwell.
- What is the head-to-head record between Motherwell and Aberdeen?
- In the last eight competitive meetings Motherwell have won four, Aberdeen three and one was drawn, at 2.38 goals per meeting, with both sides scoring in only three of the eight. The last three Premiership meetings at Fir Park all ended 2-0 to Motherwell, in February 2026, September 2025 and January 2025.
- Is Kevin Nisbet playing for Aberdeen?
- He passed a late fitness test before the cup tie at Kilmarnock on 12 September and then played 120 minutes plus penalties, so he is a doubt for a match three days later. He has scored 60% of Aberdeen's goals this season, which makes his fitness the biggest single question in the away side's team news.
- Who is missing for Motherwell?
- Paul McGinn, John Koutroumbis, Jordan McGhee, Callum Hendry and Oscar Priestman were all doubtful in the build-up, and forward Apostolos Stamatelopoulos left the club on 8 September. Motherwell have coped: they beat Dundee United 3-0 on 2 September without them.
Written 15 Sept 2026, 00:50 · Updated 15 Sept 2026, 01:10 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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