vs
Lecce vs Monza
Sun 13 Sept · 15:00Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Powered by statistical analytics hubProBettingHub · PRO Analytics hub for everyoneLecceHomeMonzaAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- Lecce 1-0. Two blunt attacks, a fixture Monza have never won, and a game likely settled by one goal.
- The one stat
- Eight competitive meetings, zero Monza wins: Lecce four, four draws, 1.75 goals per meeting.
- The risk
- Lecce have scored twice in three Serie A matches and none at home, where Roma beat them 4-0.
- The calls
- Safer: Lecce or draw at 1.39. Bolder: Lecce -0.5 at 2.46. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Any Lecce vs Monza prediction has to start with the table, because it is unforgiving for both. Lecce are 14th on 3 points from 3 played (W1 D0 L2). Monza are 17th on 1 point from 3 played (W0 D1 L2). Between them they have one win in six Serie A matches, and it came at Venezia in August.
Lecce's fortnight has been grim. Roma took them apart 4-0 at the Via del Mare, then Cagliari won 1-0 on Monday night. Two goals in three Serie A matches, none of them at home, and an alarming shot count: 9.7 attempts per league match for Eusebio Di Francesco's side, 18.0 faced. Willem Geubbels, their alternative to Štulić up front, has been treating an ankle sprain all week.
Monza arrive with more life than their position suggests. Ivan Jurić's promoted side have scored in all three league matches, won at Torino in the Coppa Italia and drew 1-1 at Parma, so they are unbeaten in two competitive games. What they cannot do is defend: 8 conceded in three Serie A matches, no clean sheet. And they have never beaten Lecce.
The markets
Double chance
Lecce or draw
Monza have won none of the eight competitive meetings with Lecce, who won four and drew four; Lecce also hold the home price at 2.54 against 2.89.
EvidenceHead-to-headGoals table
Asian handicap
Lecce -0.5
The market makes a Lecce win 37%, and Monza have won none of the eight competitive meetings while Lecce won four; the 1-0 we predict lands this at 2.46.
EvidenceHead-to-headGoals table
Result & goals
Total goals
Under 2.5Price 1.64
3/5The eight meetings averaged 1.75 goals and went over 2.5 only twice; Lecce have scored 0.67 per Serie A match and failed to score in two of three.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Both teams to score
NoPrice 1.84
3/5Both sides have scored in none of Lecce's three Serie A matches, and Lecce have not scored at home this season, with Geubbels a doubt behind Štulić.
EvidenceGoals tableTeam news
Cards
Total cards
Over 3.5
2/5Two of Lecce's three Serie A matches and two of Monza's three went over 3.5, and Lecce show 2.3 cards per league match while chasing 18.0 shots against.
EvidenceDiscipline
Corners
Total corners
Under 9.5Price 1.57
3/5Lecce's Serie A matches produce 7.7 corners and Monza's 7.0, against a 9.2 league average; only one of their six league matches passed 9.5.
EvidenceCorners
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 15:00 Lecce time
- Sunday
- Venue
- Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
- Weather
- 22-26 °C, showers possible
- five-day outlook for the city
- Rest
- 5 days vs 7
- Table
- 14th vs 17th
- 3 points from 3 played against 1 from 3
- Referee
- Named later in the week
Part one
Analysis
Why the goals lines sit low, why the cards line sits at the league average, and why the corner count should not reach ten.
01Goals
Neither team can be trusted to score. Lecce have 2 goals in 3 Serie A matches (0.67 per match) and failed to score in two of the three; both sides have scored in none of those three. Monza are the opposite kind of broken: 4 goals in 3 league matches (1.33 per match) but 8 conceded (2.67 per match), with both teams scoring in all three.
The history pulls the total down hard. Eight competitive meetings have produced 1.75 goals each, over 2.5 only twice, and the last four finished 0-0, 2-1, 1-1, 1-1. Lecce won four of the eight and drew four; Monza have not won one of them.
The prices agree that this is close: Lecce 2.54, the draw 3.11, Monza 2.89. We take the low-scoring side of it. Under 2.5 goals is 1.64 and the no in both teams to score is 1.84, with Lecce's zero-from-three record in that market this season behind it.
Lecce make 9.7 shots per Serie A match and face 18.0; Monza have scored in all three league matches and kept no clean sheet.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches each
| Metric | LecceHome | MonzaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 9.7 | 12.3 |
| Shots faced per game | 18.0 | 10.7 |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Monza have won none of the eight competitive meetings: Lecce four wins, four draws, 1.75 goals per meeting and over 2.5 in only two of them.
4
Lecce
4
Draws
0
Monza
16 Feb 2025·Serie A
Monza0–0Lecce15 Dec 2024·Serie A
Lecce2–1Monza27 Apr 2024·Serie A
Lecce1–1Monza17 Sept 2023·Serie A
Monza1–1Lecce28 May 2023·Serie A
Monza0–1Lecce11 Sept 2022·Serie A
Lecce1–1Monza27 Feb 2022·Serie B
Monza0–1Lecce1 Oct 2021·Serie B
Lecce3–0Monza
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
Lecce or drawSafer
Price 1.394/5Asian handicap
Lecce -0.5Riskier
Price 2.461/5Total goals
Under 2.5
Price 1.643/5Both teams to score
No
Price 1.843/5
02Cards
The card count here should land on the league line rather than above it. Lecce's three Serie A matches have averaged 3.3 cards, Monza's 3.0, against a Serie A average of 3.33 per match across the 30 matches played this season. Two of Lecce's three went over 3.5, and two of Monza's three did too.
Lecce collect more of them: 2.3 shown per Serie A match against 1.7 for Monza, which fits a side that has spent long stretches chasing the ball, with 18.0 shots faced per league match. Jurić's high pressing gives Monza a second route to the referee's notebook. The official has not been appointed yet, so we lean lightly.
Lecce's Serie A matches average 3.3 cards, Monza's 3.0, either side of the 3.33 league average; both went over 3.5 twice in three.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches with card data each
| Metric | LecceHome | MonzaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Cards against per game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Cards in their matches per game | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Over 3.5 cards | 67% | 67% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total cards
Over 3.5
2/5
03Corners
Neither side generates corners. Lecce win 3.3 per Serie A match and concede 4.3; Monza win 3.0 and concede 4.0. Their matches have totalled 7.7 and 7.0 respectively, against a Serie A average of 9.2 per match this season.
Only one of the six Serie A matches these two have played went over 9.5 corners: one of Lecce's three, none of Monza's. Monza defend deep enough in possession terms to block crosses rather than deflect them, and Lecce's 9.7 shots per match do not generate rebounds. Under 9.5 at 1.57 is our corner call.
Lecce's Serie A matches produce 7.7 corners, Monza's 7.0, both under the 9.2 league average; one of six went over 9.5.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 3 matches with corner data each
| Metric | LecceHome | MonzaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Corners conceded per game | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Corners in their matches per game | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 0% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
What this supports
Full board ↑Total corners
Under 9.5
Price 1.573/5
04The numbers that matter
- 0
- Monza wins in eight meetings with Lecce
- Lecce have won four and drawn four; the last four ended 0-0, 2-1, 1-1 and 1-1.
- 0.67
- Lecce goals per Serie A match
- Two goals in three league matches, none at home, and no goal at all in two of them.
- 18.0
- shots Lecce face per Serie A match
- They take 9.7 themselves: the widest shot deficit in this preview and the reason cards fall their way.
- 7.0
- corners in a Monza Serie A match
- None of their three league matches reached 9.5, against a league average of 9.2 per match.
Every rate above counts this season's Serie A matches only, which means three per side: enough to describe a pattern, not enough to prove one. The cup wins over Avellino and Torino are in Monza's confidence, not in these lines.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Lecce are short of a striker, Monza are short of a captain, and both coaches have already settled on a shape.
05Team news
Monza lose captain Pessina until late October and Cutrone is a doubt; Lecce may again be without Geubbels, their only alternative striker.
LecceHome
Willem GeubbelsFW
ankle sprain
Goals
Doubtful
MonzaAway
Matteo PessinaMF
knee injury, expected back late October
Result
OutPatrick CutroneFW
muscular problem that ruled him out at Parma
Goals
DoubtfulPatrick CiurriaMF
muscle concerns
Corners
DoubtfulZiolkowskiDF
plantar fascia injury
Goals
OutVarelaFW
adductor problem, around two weeks
Goals
Out
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club training reports and Italian press coverage from the week before kick-off.
06Expected XI
Di Francesco keeps the 4-3-3 that started at Cagliari; Jurić repeats the 3-4-2-1 from Parma, with Colpani pushing Forson for a place behind Mota.
LecceHome
Eusebio Di Francesco
MonzaAway
Ivan Jurić
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each line left to right; Siebert pushes Gaspar for Lecce, Forson pushes Colpani for Monza.
07Shape and plan
Jurić's press, Lecce's build
Monza press high and accept little of the ball. Lecce are the perfect victims of that plan on paper: 9.7 shots per Serie A match, 18.0 conceded, and a 4-0 home defeat by Roma in which they held 36% of the ball. Whether Lecce play through the first line, or hoof it toward Štulić and lose it, decides the shape of the afternoon.
Štulić alone
With Geubbels a doubt, Lecce's front three barely changes: Monteiro and Pierotti wide, Štulić central. That trio has produced two goals in three Serie A matches. The counterweight is that Monza have conceded eight in three and kept no clean sheet, so one clean chance may be enough.
Wing-backs against full-backs
Mangas and Birindelli give Monza width; Gallo and Danilo Veiga must decide whether to follow them or hold the back four. It matters for the corner count: neither side wins more than 3.3 per Serie A match, so the crosses that survive tend to be cleared long rather than behind.
08Three duels
Štulić
Lecce · ST
Lecce's only fit centre-forward while Geubbels treats an ankle, and the reference point for everything they play forward.
Lecce: 2 goals in 3 Serie A matches
Falcone
Lecce · GK
The busiest man in the stadium if the pattern holds; his side face nearly twice as many shots as they take.
18.0 shots faced per Serie A match
Dany Mota
Monza · FW
Jurić's central runner with Cutrone a doubt, and the finisher in a side that has scored in every league match.
Monza: 4 goals in 3 Serie A matches
Michael Folorunsho
Monza · MF
Signed in late August and straight into the XI at Parma; carries the ball out of the press Lecce will not apply.
Monza: 12.3 shots per Serie A match
Part three
The call
How the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 40%chanceMost likely
Lecce edge a bad game
Monza press for half an hour, Lecce survive it, and the game settles into the pattern of these meetings: 1.75 goals each, over 2.5 in two of eight. One set piece or one Monza error decides it, the no in both teams to score lands, and the corners never reach 9.5.
- 33%chance
Monza land the first punch
Monza have led at half-time in three of their last five competitive matches and have scored in all three Serie A games. If they score first, Lecce's 0.67 goals per league match becomes the story and the draw at 3.11, or a first Monza win in this fixture, comes into view.
- 27%chance
The game gets away from Lecce
The Roma match showed the floor: 4-0, 36% possession, 3.35 expected goals conceded. Monza take 12.3 shots per Serie A match and Lecce concede 18.0. If the early goal goes to the visitors and Lecce chase, the total climbs past 2.5 and the cards follow.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
One win between them in six Serie A matches, and eight meetings without a Monza victory. This is an afternoon to be won 1-0, not to be enjoyed.
10The verdict
Lecce 1-0: low on goals, low on corners, and Monza still cannot win here
This is the meeting of the 14th and 17th teams in Serie A, and the numbers say so. Lecce have scored 0.67 goals per league match and take 9.7 shots to their opponents' 18.0; Monza have scored in all three league matches but conceded 8. What separates them is history and the venue: Monza have won none of the eight competitive meetings, Lecce four, and those games have averaged 1.75 goals with over 2.5 landing twice in eight. We take Lecce or the draw at 1.39 as the safer route, Lecce on the -0.5 handicap at 2.46 as the bolder one, and the low side of goals and corners around them.
What would change our mind
- If Geubbels is passed fit, Lecce gain a second scorer and the under 2.5 lean loosens.
- If Cutrone starts, Monza's target man raises both the goals and the cards risk.
- A Monza goal before half-time pushes this toward the draw and off our bolder Lecce handicap call.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Lecce vs Monza?
- Lecce are the narrow favourites at 2.54, with the draw at 3.11 and Monza at 2.89. The gap is small: Lecce sit 14th with 3 points from 3 played (W1 D0 L2), Monza 17th with 1 point from 3 played (W0 D1 L2), and Monza's only Serie A goal-scoring return is 4 in 3 matches against 8 conceded.
- What is the Lecce vs Monza head-to-head record?
- In the eight most recent competitive meetings, Lecce have won four and four were drawn; Monza have won none. Those meetings produced 1.75 goals each and went over 2.5 goals only twice in eight. The last four ended 0-0, 2-1 to Lecce, 1-1 and 1-1.
- What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Monza?
- Lecce 1-0. Lecce have scored 0.67 goals per Serie A match this season and Monza have conceded 2.67, but Monza have also failed to keep a clean sheet in three league matches, so a single goal may settle it. Our safer call is Lecce or draw at 1.39; the bolder one is Lecce on the -0.5 handicap at 2.46.
- Is Geubbels playing for Lecce against Monza?
- Willem Geubbels is a doubt with an ankle sprain. Lecce were still working to get him back for Sunday in the days before the match, and reports on 8 September called the timeframe tight. Štulić is expected to lead the line either way, with Joel Monteiro and Santiago Pierotti wide.
- Who is missing for Monza against Lecce?
- Monza are without captain Matteo Pessina until late October with a knee injury, plus Ziolkowski (plantar fascia) and Varela (adductor), while Patrick Cutrone is a doubt after the muscular problem that kept him out at Parma and Patrick Ciurria is being assessed. That is 3 certain absentees for a side that has conceded 8 goals in 3 Serie A matches without a clean sheet.
Written 9 Sept 2026, 00:50 · Updated 9 Sept 2026, 01:10 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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