FC Porto vs Manchester City

Porto have played six competitive matches this season and won all six: 12 goals scored, one conceded, five clean sheets. They lead the Primeira Liga, they have the Super Cup in the cabinet, and Francesco Farioli has yet to lose a match since taking the job. He also has yet to face anything remotely like this. The six wins came against Torreense, Alverca, Rio Ave, Arouca, Académico de Viseu and Moreirense, and the only one that got tight was Friday's 2-1 over Moreirense, which cost him Victor Froholdt to a concussion.

Manchester City arrive on a different kind of first night. This is their opening Champions League campaign without Pep Guardiola since 2015-16, and Enzo Maresca's first European match in charge. City have won three of four competitive matches, scoring seven and conceding five, with the one defeat a 0-3 Community Shield loss to Arsenal. They have conceded in three of those four, and the 1-0 over Coventry on Saturday was carried by 78 per cent possession rather than clarity. The Manchester derby comes three days after this, and the expectation is that Maresca leaves Enzo Fernández on the bench and starts Ayyoub Bouaddi.

The prices know all of that: City 1.74, the draw 3.96, Porto 4.47, with 90 Elo points between the sides in City's favour. That is a fair reflection of talent. It is a less fair reflection of a rotated away side playing a compact home team that has conceded one goal since the season began.

The two defences are not comparable, and neither are the tests they have faced. Porto have conceded 0.17 goals per game across six competitive matches and 0.25 per game across their four at home. City have conceded 1.25 per game across four, with a single clean sheet, and their two away trips this season produced four goals for and four against.

Underneath, though, City's numbers are strong: 2.29 xG created and 0.65 conceded per game across those four. Porto's are similar in shape, 2.26 created and 0.90 conceded, against far weaker opposition. The honest read is that City will make chances and Porto will not make many. The question is volume, and both sides answer it low. Porto have gone over 2.5 goals in two of six; City in three of four, but two of those were their own routs.

This is where the draw and the unders live. Porto sit deep, defend the box and are excellent at it. City, rotated and three days from a derby, are the kind of team that wins 1-0 or draws 1-1 on a wet Tuesday. Over 3.5 goals is a 31 per cent event in this competition's 90 matches this season; nothing about these two sides argues for more.

Neither side's recent matches have been card-heavy. Porto's five with card data averaged 1.8 cards per match and cleared 3.5 twice; City's four averaged 3.2 and cleared 3.5 once. Taken alone, that points down.

Two things point back up. Szymon Marciniak has the whistle, and across 510 career matches he averages 4.29 yellows and 0.44 penalties per game. And Porto foul: 13.82 per game on their weighted season averages against City's 9.76, which is what happens when one side has 53 per cent of the ball and the other has 64. A deep block that has to stop Cherki and Haaland in transition commits fouls, and Marciniak books them.

Porto's corner numbers are inflated by the football they have been allowed to play. Their five matches with corner data averaged 10.8 corners and went over 9.5 in four of them, with Porto winning 7.0 a game and conceding 3.8. Twelve of those came in one match, the 2-0 against Arouca.

City's four averaged 8.5 with 5.5 won and 3.0 conceded. Tuesday should look more like City's number than Porto's: Porto will have far less of the ball than the 53 per cent their weighted season average shows, and a team defending its box wins few corners. Over 9.5 at 1.70 needs both sides to attack; only one of them will.