vs
AS Roma vs Inter
Sat 19 Sept · 18:00Stadio Olimpico, Rome
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AS RomaHomeInterAwayHome side first and left in every table.
In short
In short
- The call
- AS Roma to win, 2-1. Our Roma vs Inter prediction leans on the home defence, not the home form table.
- The one stat
- Roma have conceded one goal in four Serie A matches this season, 0.25 per game, against an xG conceded of 0.64.
- The risk
- Inter have won six of the last eight league meetings and scored in all four of their Serie A matches this season.
- The calls
- Safer: AS Roma or draw at 1.46. Riskier: over 2.5 goals at 1.73. Four more leans on the board.
The situation
Two unbeaten sides, nine points each from three matches, and one very large difference. AS Roma have won their last four Serie A matches, scoring 12 and conceding one. Inter have also won four straight in the league, scoring 13 - and conceding six. Neither club is in crisis: Roma are unbeaten in five competitive matches, Inter's only blemish is a 2-1 defeat at Real Madrid in the Champions League on 8 September. This Roma vs Inter prediction turns on whether Gian Piero Gasperini's back three can do to Inter what it has done to everyone else.
Gasperini is in his second season in Rome and the shape is settled: a back three, wing-backs high, two creators behind a centre-forward. Roma have averaged 21.2 shots per Serie A match this season and allowed 7.2. Cristian Chivu's Inter are a 3-5-2 built on volume - 25.0 shots per Serie A game, 7.2 corners - but they leak. They were 2-2 at half-time at home to Udinese on Monday before winning 5-3, and they were two down inside 45 minutes in Madrid.
The week has been short for both. Roma drew 1-1 at Fenerbahce on 10 September and lost Evan Ndicka and Manu Kone that night; Inter lost in Madrid and then rested Lautaro Martinez against Udinese. Hakan Calhanoglu missed that match entirely with adductor fatigue. Nobody is playing midweek before this one.
The markets
Double chance
AS Roma or draw
Roma have not lost any of their last ten Serie A matches at the Stadio Olimpico (eight wins, two draws) and have conceded 0.25 goals per game in four league matches this season; we make Roma or the draw 68% against the market's implied read.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Total goals
Over 2.5
Three of Roma's four Serie A matches and three of Inter's four went over 2.5, and Inter shoot 25.0 times per league game; we make it around 60% against the market's 55%.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendCorners
Result & goals
Match result
AS RomaPrice 2.57
3/5Our 42% for a Roma win against the market's 37%, built on one goal conceded in four Serie A matches and an xG conceded of 0.64 per game.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trendTeam news
Asian handicap
AS Roma 0Price 1.90
3/5The same Roma view with the draw taken out: 42% against 32% for Inter across a fixture that has not been drawn in eight league meetings.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Asian handicap
AS Roma -0.25Price 2.23
2/5Roma have scored 3.00 per Serie A game and won their four league matches by an aggregate of 12-1; the quarter line pays in full on any home win.
EvidenceGoals tablexG trend
Total goals
Over 1.5Price 1.21
4/5Neither side has failed to score in any of their four Serie A matches, and the two league attacks average 3.00 and 3.25 goals per game.
EvidenceGoals tableHead-to-head
Confidence is the desk's conviction, 1–5; each evidence chip jumps to the chart or table behind the lean. Analyzed markets are part of the DeepPreviews membership — free to explore during early access. Prices are indicative market averages, not an offer.
Match sheet
- Kick-off
- 18:00 Rome time
- Saturday
- Venue
- Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Serie A matchweek 5
- Weather
- Warm, showers possible
- high of 29 degrees C in Rome
- Rest
- 4 days vs 4
- both played on Monday
- Midweek before
- Champions League for both
- Roma drew at Fenerbahce, Inter lost at Real Madrid
Part one
Analysis
Where the goals come from, what the discipline and corner numbers really say, and the figures that carry the call.
01Goals
Start with the asymmetry. In four Serie A matches this season Roma have conceded once - 0.25 per game - against an expected goals conceded of 0.64 per game. Three clean sheets in four. Inter have conceded six in their four, 1.50 per game, with an xG conceded of 1.23. That is not variance on Roma's side; the shot numbers agree, 7.2 against per match for Roma against 9.8 for Inter.
Going the other way the two sides are close. Roma have scored 3.00 per Serie A game this season, Inter 3.25. Roma's xG for is 2.83 per game, Inter's 2.92. So the edge is entirely at the back, and it is a big one: Roma have not lost a Serie A match at the Stadio Olimpico in their last ten there (eight wins, two draws), and they have been ahead at half-time in three of four league matches this season.
Goals should still come. Inter have scored in all four of their Serie A matches and three of the four went over 2.5. So did three of Roma's four. Against a league average of 2.92 goals per match, over 2.5 at 1.73 reads as 55%; we make it nearer 60%, because Inter shoot at 25.0 per game and Roma, even when in control, are open by design - 39 shots against Atalanta, 14 corners in that one match.
Roma have conceded 0.25 goals per Serie A game this season, Inter 1.50 - and the xG numbers back both figures up.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each
| Metric | AS RomaHome | InterAway |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 3.0 | 3.25 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.25 | 1.5 |
| xG for per game | 2.83 | 2.92 |
| xG against per game | 0.64 | 1.23 |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
Roma have out-created their opponent by at least 1.1 xG in all four Serie A matches; Inter were out-created by Napoli's 2.43.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each
AS RomaHome
avg xG 2.83 · avg xGA 0.64
4–0W
Fiorentina (H)
0–4W
Lecce (A)
2–1W
Atalanta (H)
0–2W
Torino (A)
InterAway
avg xG 2.92 · avg xGA 1.23
4–1W
Monza (H)
0–1W
Cagliari (A)
3–2W
Napoli (H)
5–3W
Udinese (H)
xG forxG againstOldest match on the left.
Inter have won six of the last eight league meetings and Roma two - not one has been drawn, at 2.75 goals a meeting.
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
6
Inter
5 Apr 2026·Serie A
Inter5–2AS Roma18 Oct 2025·Serie A
AS Roma0–1Inter27 Apr 2025·Serie A
Inter0–1AS Roma20 Oct 2024·Serie A
AS Roma0–1Inter10 Feb 2024·Serie A
AS Roma2–4Inter29 Oct 2023·Serie A
Inter1–0AS Roma6 May 2023·Serie A
AS Roma0–2Inter1 Oct 2022·Serie A
Inter1–2AS Roma
Home side listed first. Winner in bold.
What this supports
Full board ↑Double chance
AS Roma or drawSafer
Price 1.464/5Total goals
Over 2.5Riskier
Price 1.733/5Match result
AS Roma
Price 2.573/5Asian handicap
AS Roma 0
Price 1.903/5Asian handicap
AS Roma -0.25
Price 2.232/5Total goals
Over 1.5
Price 1.214/5
02Cards
No referee has been appointed, so the discipline read is the teams' own. Both are quiet. Roma's four Serie A matches have averaged 2.5 cards in total, Inter's 3.0, against a league average of 3.24 this season. Only one of Roma's four and one of Inter's four went past 3.5 cards.
That is partly style. Roma commit few fouls relative to how much they press, and Inter hold 61% possession on the weighted season averages. A derby-grade fixture and a full Olimpico argue upwards; four matches of evidence per side argue downwards. With no priced line to lean on and no referee named, this stays analysis.
Roma's Serie A matches have averaged 2.5 cards and Inter's 3.0, both under the league's 3.24 this season.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each
| Metric | AS RomaHome | InterAway |
|---|---|---|
| Cards shown per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Cards in the match per game | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Matches over 3.5 cards | 25% | 25% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
03Corners
The corner counts describe the two teams better than any possession figure. Roma have won 6.2 corners per Serie A match and conceded 1.8 - a total of 8.0 per game, under the league's 9.27. Inter's matches have run to 11.5, with 7.2 for and 4.2 against, and three of their four went over 9.5.
Read that as territory. Roma squeeze opponents into their own half and rarely give anything back; Inter's games are end to end. If Roma lead early the count stays low, because Inter will be the ones with the ball and Roma will be defending in a compact block rather than conceding set pieces. No lean here, only context.
Roma's Serie A matches have averaged 8.0 corners, Inter's 11.5; Roma concede just 1.8 per game.
Sample: Serie A 2026/27, 4 matches each
| Metric | AS RomaHome | InterAway |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won per game | 6.2 | 7.2 |
| Corners conceded per game | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| Matches over 9.5 corners | 25% | 75% |
Bold marks the better figure in each row.
04The numbers that matter
- 1
- goal Roma have conceded in four Serie A matches
- Three clean sheets in four, with an xG conceded of 0.64 per game - the defence is real, not luck.
- 3.25
- Inter goals per Serie A game
- They have scored in all four, so a Roma clean sheet is the least likely part of a Roma win.
- 0
- draws in the last eight league meetings
- Six Inter wins, two Roma wins. This fixture separates; the draw is the outcome to price down.
- 31
- rating points between them before home advantage
- Inter rate higher on the cross-league scale, but a home ground is worth roughly twice that gap.
Everything above counts this season's Serie A matches only - four each - so the samples are small and named wherever they appear. Champions League nights and pre-season are excluded from every rate.
Part two
Who plays, and how
Roma have already won without two starters. Inter's midfield question is the one that could move the call.
05Team news
Roma won 2-0 at Torino without Ndicka and Kone; Inter won 5-3 without Calhanoglu. Both tests came back clean.
AS RomaHome
Evan NdickaCB
injury sustained in the Champions League draw at Fenerbahce on 10 September
Goals
OutManu KoneCM
knee complaint from the same night; tests found no lesion, monitored daily
Result
DoubtfulWesleyLWB
knock picked up in Europe, in the squad at Torino but did not start
Other
Doubtful
InterAway
Hakan CalhanogluDM
muscular fatigue in the adductor, left out of the Udinese squad as a precaution
ResultGoals
Doubtful
Dots = impact on the starting XI (1 squad depth, 3 key starter); tags name the markets the absence moves. Club and Italian national reports up to Monday 14 September. Lautaro Martinez was rested at Udinese and is expected back in the XI.
06Expected XI
Roma should name the side that won 2-0 at Torino; Inter's change is Lautaro Martinez back in for Pio Esposito.
AS RomaHome
Gian Piero Gasperini
InterAway
Cristian Chivu
Ordered goalkeeper first, then each formation line. Roma's XI is the one that started at Torino on 14 September.
07Shape and plan
Three against two
Gasperini's back three matches Inter's front two man for man, which frees the spare centre-back to step into midfield. That is how Roma have held opponents to 7.2 shots per Serie A match. Inter's answer is Barella and Mkhitaryan arriving late into the space the stepping defender leaves.
The wing-back duel
Both sides play wing-backs high. Roma have won 6.2 corners per league match and conceded 1.8 because Lulli and Molina pin Inter's wide midfielders deep. If Carlos Augusto gets forward against a right side missing Wesley's cover, Inter's best chances arrive from there.
Inter's transition tax
Inter have conceded 1.50 per Serie A game while creating 2.92 xG - they win by outscoring, not by controlling. Roma scored twice from 14 shots at Torino and twice from 39 against Atalanta; they do not need volume, they need the counter.
The Calhanoglu question
Without him, Zielinski drops deepest and Inter's first pass out is slower. Against a side that presses in the shape Roma do, that matters more than the goals he scores. His fitness is the single biggest swing on the teamsheet.
08Three duels
Donyell Malen
AS Roma · ST
Leads the line alone and runs the channel between Inter's wide centre-backs - exactly the space Bastoni vacates when he steps out.
Serie A's leading scorer so far this season
Paulo Dybala
AS Roma · AM
Drops between Inter's midfield and back three to receive. If Calhanoglu is absent, nobody in an Inter shirt naturally picks him up.
Alessandro Bastoni
Inter · CB
Inter's out-ball on the left. Roma's press will try to force him inside, where Cristante is waiting.
Nicolo Barella
Inter · CM
The one Inter midfielder who consistently gets beyond the strikers; his late runs are how Inter turned 2-2 into 5-3 against Udinese.
Part three
The call
Our verdict: how the match most likely goes, the score we would write down, and what would change our mind.
09How it could go
Three ways this match goes
Chance of each, out of 100 — most likely first
- 42%chanceMost likely
Roma lead, Inter chase, Roma hold
Roma lead at half-time as in three of four Serie A matches, Malen or Dybala taking one of the few clear chances the shape produces. Inter push and get one back through the volume behind their 3.25 goals per game. Roma close it out: 2-1, over 2.5 goals.
- 32%chance
Inter's volume wins out
Inter's 25.0 shots per Serie A match find the corners early and Roma, missing Ndicka and possibly Kone, are stretched. History is on this side: Inter have won six of the last eight meetings, including 5-2 in April. A high-scoring away win, the kind neither defence can rule out.
- 26%chance
Two careful sides cancel out
Roma's block holds and Inter, without Calhanoglu's tempo, cannot break it; Roma's own attack runs into a crowded box. A 1-1 or 0-0 is the shape of it. Worth noting these two have not drawn a league meeting in eight attempts, which is why this sits third.
The chances are the desk's judgement, not market prices; together they add up to 100.
One goal conceded in four. Roma do not need to win the match - they need to make Inter win it, and Inter have never been built to do that quietly.
10The verdict
Roma's defence decides a close one
Neither side is priced under 2.00, so the call goes to the market's narrow favourite and the evidence behind it - and the decisive absence is Inter's: Hakan Calhanoglu missed the Udinese win with adductor fatigue and is a doubt, which slows Inter's first pass out against exactly the kind of press Roma run. We make it AS Roma 42%, draw 26%, Inter 32%, against market readings of 37%, 28% and 36% - inside five points everywhere, so this is not an argument with the market, it is a preference for the side that defends better. Neither club is in crisis: Roma are unbeaten in five competitive matches, Inter's only loss was at Real Madrid. Roma's own absences passed the with/without test - they won 2-0 at Torino without Ndicka and Kone, with Balerdi and Pisilli in. The counterweight is the head-to-head, six Inter wins in eight, and Inter's 3.25 goals per Serie A game, which is why the safer call is the double chance rather than the win and the confidence stops at 3.
What would change our mind
- If Calhanoglu is passed fit and starts, Inter keep the ball better - drop the Roma win at 2.57 to confidence 2.
- If Kone is ruled out alongside Ndicka, keep the safer call and leave the Roma win alone.
- Heavy rain in Rome would slow the pitch and argue against the riskier call, over 2.5 goals.
Quick answers
- Who is favourite for Roma vs Inter?
- The market makes AS Roma the narrow favourite at 2.57, with the draw at 3.39 and Inter at 2.65 - readings of 37%, 28% and 36%. We go a little further towards Roma: 42% home, 26% draw, 32% away, on the strength of one goal conceded in four Serie A matches and a Stadio Olimpico record of eight wins and two draws in their last ten Serie A matches there.
- What is the predicted score for Roma vs Inter?
- AS Roma 2-1 Inter. Roma have scored 3.00 goals per game in their four Serie A matches this season and conceded 0.25; Inter have scored 3.25 and conceded 1.50 across their four. Inter have found the net in every one of them, which is why we do not expect a clean sheet.
- Is Hakan Calhanoglu playing for Inter against Roma?
- He is a doubt. Calhanoglu was left out of the squad for the 5-3 win over Udinese on 14 September with muscular fatigue in the adductor and is being assessed day by day, with no extended absence expected. Inter coped without him at San Siro, with Piotr Zielinski dropping deepest in midfield.
- Who is missing for Roma against Inter?
- Evan Ndicka is out after picking up an injury in the Champions League draw at Fenerbahce on 10 September, and Manu Kone is a doubt with a knee complaint from the same night; tests found no lesion and he is being monitored daily. Roma won 2-0 at Torino without both, with Leonardo Balerdi and Niccolo Pisilli stepping in.
- What is the head-to-head record between Roma and Inter?
- In the last eight competitive meetings Inter have won six and AS Roma two, with no draws at all. Those eight matches averaged 2.75 goals, both teams scored in three of them and three went over 2.5 goals. The most recent was Inter 5-2 AS Roma in April 2026.
Written 15 Sept 2026, 01:00 · Updated 15 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC.
AI-generated match analysis for information and entertainment. Prices are indicative market averages, never an offer. Spotted an error? Tell the desk.
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